Dave Gloeckner 
We’re back for another Memorial Day Weekend edition of The Sweet Spot. We had some nice returns on our early lineups yesterday as we hit with the 2nd (Webb), 3rd (Castillo), 5th (Valdez) and 6th (Severino) highest scoring pitchers on the board. We missed the best stack in Minnesota but still found solid mini-stacks in Texas, Houston and Seattle which helped cash several lineups. Hoping you hit as well and can roll some of that into today’s slates.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 8 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 8 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
GERRIT COLE ($11,500 DK)
If you’re a frequent visitor to this article, you’ll know that I’ve faded Gerrit Cole on almost every opportunity this season. For the most part, that strategy has paid off as he only has three outings with high return (i.e. over 3x). But today, I’m calling an audible and deploying Cole in several of my lineups. Yes, he got hit up in his last start where he allowed 5 ER’s to the Baltimore Orioles. And yes, his K rate is the lowest it’s been in 6 years.
However, he is pitching at home where his ERA is 1.5 runs lower than it is on the road. Additionally, he’s facing the Padres who are 29th in batting average, 0.222, in the MLB. Tatis and Soto are starting to heat up but Cole can effectively pitch carefully around them as the other hitters in the lineup have struggles most of the year (Soto leads the team in batting average at 0.263).
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ ($8800 DK)
Believe it or not, Rodriguez has the 5th best ERA in baseball at 2.19. And that’s with two mediocre outings in his last two starts. He’s been a different pitcher this year in the sense that he’s used his fastball more (42.9% in 2023 versus 35% in 2022). It’s been effective as hitters are batting just 0.190 off the heater. The reason that’s important is because his opponent, the White Sox are 24th in the league, via the runs created stat line, versus the fastball. Additionally, White Sox batters have a career 0.191 batting average off Rodriguez. Lastly, the Sox are 27th in batting and 28th in wRC+ over the past week.
JOSE BERRIOS ($7600 DK)
If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again. That’s how I’ll feel today when rolling out Jose Berrios versus the Twins. Minnesota’s bats woke up yesterday and ruined my lineups with Chris Bassitt. But that won’t stop me from attacking the Twins lineup today. Can the likes of Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, and Matt Wallner beat up Jays pitching again? I like my chances that they don’t get anywhere near a 9 for 13 with 3 home run performance again.
Remember, it’s the Twins who lead the MLB in K rate. And they are striking out at a 31% clip over their past 10 games. Berrios has been up and down this season but his recent outings have been on the positive side as he’s averaged 21.6 DK points in the last two starts.
MACKENZIE GORE ($7500 DK)
Gore has pitched very well for the Nats this year and is making the Soto trade less painful. His 3.88 ERA is good for 2nd on the team. But more importantly, his 28.3% K rate is the 2nd highest for any SP today trailing only Spencer Strider (who pitches the night game). The Nats SP’s biggest issue has been walks as he’s offered 27 on the season. However, his opponent, the Kansas City Royals, are 27th in BB rate at just 7.4%. Add to that they are 7th in K rate this season and I feel good about Gore’s potential to put up > 20 DK points today.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
N/A
Just because there is a value pitcher spot in this article does not mean that we have to force it. And that’s exactly my advice today which is don’t dip below the $7K range for anyone. Because of the Cubs recent struggles (batting 0.186 over past week) and high K rates (26.5% over the past week), Graham Ashcraft is the one pitcher I considered. But he’s allowed 25 ER’s in his past 4 starts and I can’t, in blind faith, put my money on him.
With that being said, I think you can find plenty of value in the $7K range as all those starters have potential to put up big games. We highlighted two of them above, but Jordan Montgomery and Drew Smyly also have good matchups. So if you’re going cheap, think Five Below today and stay in the $7K range instead of dropping down to the Dollar Store.
BONUS PICKS
I do like ALEX COBB ($8000 DK) today against the Brewers. The one pitcher starting today that has an ERA lower than Eduardo Rodriguez is Mr. Alex Cobb. He owns the 4th lowest ERA in the league at 2.17. And we’ve documented the Brewers struggles at the plate which include a 0.196 batting average and 27.4% K rate in their past 7 games.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Rangers (vs Bradish), the Nationals (vs. Lynch), the Cubs (vs. Ashcraft) and the Orioles (vs. Bradford/Bullpen).
CORE BATTERS
JOEY MENESES ($3300 DK)
The Nationals have been popping at the plate. They are leading the league in batting (0.308) and OPS (0.896) over the past 10 games. And Meneses has been a big part of that with 10 hits in his last 7 games. I also like that he’s facing a LHP as he has a career 0.339 batting average against southpaws.
For stacking, look at LANE THOMAS and LUIS GARCIA today as they makeup the top part of the order that would stack well with Meneses.
CHRISTOPHER MOREL ($5700 DK)
The Cubs OF went hitless yesterday for only the 2nd time this season. He’s batting a solid 0.317 with 9 home runs in just 16 games. And Morel has faced Reds SP Graham Ashcraft 5 times resulting in 3 hits. This is a hot hitter with a good history off Ashcraft which makes this a sweet spot as Morel will be in all my Cubs stacks today.
For stacking, I like IAN HAPP, DANSBY SWANSON and NICO HOERNER today.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
RILEY ADAMS ($2600 DK)
Let’s stay connected to a Washington Nationals stack and roll out Riley Adams. As a backup catcher, he doesn’t get many opportunities to start in a week. But he’s getting the nod today and will bat 8th. He’s hitting 0.323 on the season. Even better is that he is batting 0.500 off LHP’s with 2 home runs. You can use him a wrap around stack or even bottom of the order stack depending on your available salaries.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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