Dave Gloeckner 
We are back at it again for a Sunday edition of The Sweet Spot. We started the discussion about today’s slate Win Daily Sports Show this morning on SiriusXM Channel 87. And after additional research I’ve narrowed down my favorite spots on today’s 11 game baseball slate that starts at 1:35pm.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
FRAMBER VALDEZ ($10,800 DK)
Of the three pitchers with salaries above $10K, I like Valdez the most. The Astros LHP has started 2023 where he left off in 2022 with an ERA sub 3.00. Additionally, Valdez has racked up 7 quality starts in his first 9 outings, which is a stat he led the MLB in last year. What’s even more impressive so far this year is that he’s raised his K/9 inning by almost 2 this season (10.26 versus 8.67). He has a career high 28.1% K rate this season which provides that additional value we need for today.
That’s because he’s facing the Oakland A’s who are striking out at a 29.4% clip over the past week. Four starting pitchers alone racked up at least 9 K’s versus the A’s this week; Heaney, Merrill Kelly, Bielak, and Hunter Brown. Let’s make it 5 today.
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($9800 DK)
Gausman has been great this year as he’s posted a 2.0 WAR which is 2nd in the MLB behind just Zac Gallen. He’s also posting a career high K rate of 34.7% which is also good for 2nd in baseball, but still miles behind Spencer Strider’s 41.5% number. If it wasn’t for 2 terrible outings, we’d be talking about someone with an ERA near 1.00 and a definitive front runner for AL Cy Young.
Today’s opponent is troublesome as Baltimore strikes out just 21.4% which is the 8th least in the majors. And there are several O’s with great numbers against Gausman. But I’ll take the chance that the new Gausman, one that throws fastball and split finger at a 93% clip (84% in 2022), will be able to neutralize an aggressive lineup.
MERRILL KELLY ($9100 DK)
Kelly is coming off an impressive start where he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings of action. Overall, he’s been a very reliable #2 SP for the D’backs this year and is in the top 20 in ERA at 2.92. Today he faces the Pittsburgh Pirates who after an impressive beginning to the year have started to come back to reality with a record of 4-12 in May. Additionally, in those 16 games, they’ve scored 2 runs or less in 10 of those contests. The offense has slowed and this should benefit Kelly today. I expect another quality start with the potential for 20 DK points or more.
JOSIAH GRAY ($8000 DK)
We are targeting another pitcher who isn’t a front page name but has an ERA in the top 20 of the MLB. Gray hasn’t fully solved his control issues as he’s averaging 2.5 walks per outing. But he has been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just 5 HR’s all season, which was his biggest detriment last season. Today he faces the Tigers who are striking out the 7th most in the majors and have the 2nd worst batting average at 0.228. And they haven’t improved of late as their 0.216 batting average over the past week is good for 27th in the MLB.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JOEY WENTZ ($5800 DK)
If I had to dive deep into the value waters, I will be reluctantly looking at Tigers SP Joey Wentz. His K numbers are below what we like to target (18% and threshold is typically 20%). But his FIP is a full run lower than his ERA and his SIERA is 1.5 runs lower. Additionally, he’s had success every other start which means we’re in line for a good one today as he went just 2.2 innings in his last outing. Positive regression is ahead and Washington could be the place to start as they are 20th in wOBA and wRC+ on the season.
BONUS PICKS
I do like ANDREW HEANEY ($7700 DK) and LANCE LYNN ($7300 DK) today. There is actually very good value in the $7K-$8K range today and these two land at the top of that list. Heaney’s opponent, the Colorado Rockies, hit 0.284 at home but are 51 points lower on the road with a 0.233 batting average away from Coors Field. As for Lynn’s opponent, the Royals are batting 0.185 over the past week and are 29th in ISO and wRC+.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Rangers (vs Seabold), the Blue Jays (vs. Kremer), the Cubs (vs. Walker) and the Astros (vs. Kaprielien).
CORE BATTERS
VLADIMIR GUERRERO ($5500 DK)
The Blue Jays 1B has great numbers against O’s starting pitcher Dean Kremer. He is 6 for 16 in his career off Kremer with 4 home runs.
For stacking, look at KEVIN KEIRMEIR who is batting 0.474 over his past 5 games. And consider BRANDON BELT (hitting 0.333 in past 5 games) as well as BO BICHETTE and MATT CHAMPMAN.
COREY SEAGER ($5100 DK)
Seager jumped back in the hot Rangers lineup this week and fit right in. The Rangers SS smacked 4 hits in those games and is averaging 13 DK points. I would stack Seager with top of the order bats such as Semien, Lowe and Garcia.
For a bottom of the order stacking, look at EZEQUIAL DURAN (SS eligibility only so you’ll have to choose between him and Seager), JONAH HEIM, and JOSH JUNG.
RONALD ACUNA JR ($6400 DK)
Batting 0.347 on the season and leading all DFS batters in points. Acuna is also on a 10 game hit streak and has scored a run in 6 straight games. Ride the hot hand.
Also consider Ozie Albies, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris (only $3400).
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
LEODY TAVARAS ($2400 DK)
For our value tonight, we’ll stick with the Rangers. Taveras has been a steady force at the bottom of the Rangers lineup. He has hit in 12 of his last 15 games. In those 15 games, he’s produced positive points in all except one.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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