Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to the Sweet Spot as we turn the page to May and can start using the data from this season with confidence. It’s also a happy day around the Philadelphia area as Bryce Harper has been activated and will start for the Phillies tonight in LA. But happiness can be short lived if the Dodgers bats put up another 13 spot. Anyway, let’s get rolling on today’s slate and put together a lineup that will help you win!
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any other games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
GERRIT COLE ($11,500 DK)
There aren’t many pitchers that I’ll consider at a price point above $11,000. But Gerrit Cole is one of them based on his high K potential and his low earned run value. With that being said, it will be hard for me to add him to my lineups tonight. First off, it’s a big slate with 12 games and 24 arms to choose from. So we should be able to find 3x value a little easier than on a short slate. And speaking of that 3x value, Cole would have to rack up 34.5 DK points tonight to provide that in return. He’s only done that twice this year in his 6 starts.
His opponent also factors into this decision as Cleveland is the 2nd hardest team to strikeout by boasting a 19.5% K rate. In fact they have only one game with double digit strikeouts in the past 2 weeks.
So it’s a pass for me today with Cole. He can certainly still light it up but the value at $11,500 on a huge slate just isn’t there for me.
ZAC GALLEN ($10,000 DK)
Gallen is my favorite pitcher at the top of the slate tonight and it’s for several reasons. First, he’s $1500 cheaper than Cole which is a big savings that I can use on my bats. Secondly, he averages just 1 point less than Cole on the season. And third, he’s been on fire of late with 4 straight starts of 0 ER’s and at least 7 K’s in each outing. In all, he has a 28.1 inning shut-out streak going into tonight’s game against Texas.
Speaking of the Rangers, their offense is on a roll of late as they are 1st in wOBA and wRC+ over the past 10 days. But that was against opponents such as the Royals, A’s, Reds and Yankees (they didn’t face Greene or Cole). So the numbers are somewhat inflated and shouldn’t be a reason to fade Gallen. I’ll play the hot hand until he proves me otherwise.
HUNTER BROWN ($9600 DK)
Brown has been one of my favorite players all year especially in the K prop market (he’s 4 for 5 on the over). And Houston has been consistent with their young ace by allowing him to throw an average of 95 pitches per game (no start less than 93 and none more than 99). Brown is coming off his best start of the season where he shut-out the leagues best offense in Tampa Bay. Tonight he gets the Giants who have surprisingly flashed power but are 17th in batting average. And more importantly, they are 1st in K rate at 27.4%. Based on those numbers, this is a good matchup for a pitcher that can quickly rack up K’s.
TYLER WELLS ($7300 DK)
And now we start diving into the back half of the pitching slate. There are some very intriguing pitchers between $7000 and $8800 tonight and I could make a case for several of them. But the one that I like the most is Tyler Wells of Baltimore. The issue with Wells has always been his low K rate (18% in 2022) and high FB% (career 49.8% FB rate). And while his 2023 numbers in those areas are close to his career numbers, his ERA has dropped to 2.79 vice his career number of 4.20 coming into the season.
The big reason for that has been his drop in walk rate (1.5 BB/9 less than 2022) and a significant decrease in his hard hit percentage. A lot of that is attributed to a change in his pitch selection (higher usage of off-speed pitches). And with all that said, he gets the Royals tonight who rank 28th against the FB, 29th against the changeup and 22nd against the curveball; Wells’s three best pitches.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
BRYCE MILLER ($4000 DK)
The Mariners are in a rut especially when it comes to pitching. Seattle recently received news that Robbie Ray will not return this season and is out for the year. They turned to Easton McGee who started one game and then went on the IL with a forearm strain. So it’s the next man up and that happens to be Bryce Miller who will make his Major League debut tonight against the A’s.
Miller is considered the top arm in the Mariners farm system so there is some potential to ride with here. Plus he gets to face the A’s who are 23rd in batting average and have the 10th highest K rate. All in all, based on Miller’s pedigree and his opponent tonight this is worth a flyer at $4000. If he gets 15+ points that’s the equivalent of Cole going for 40 points.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JOE RYAN ($10,500 DK) to an extent today against the White Sox. The salary is a tad high but he has 3 starts over 27 DK points. And the White Sox are pretty bad. I also am proud to say that I like YUSEI KIKUCHI ($8100 DK) tonight against Boston. I had Kikuchi in my value spot early in the season and he’s now risen to the $8K range. A 4-0 record and 3.00 ERA will do that to a pitcher. His biggest improvement has been in the walk category as he only has one game with more than 1 free pass offered.
Lastly, I also like MASON MILLER ($5700 DK) against Seattle. Miller’s FIP is almost 5 runs lower than his ERA showing there is some positive regression ahead. Plus he throws gas and has shown that in the MLB with 11 K’s in 8.1 innings.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the Minnesota Twins (vs Kopech), the Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Feltner), the Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Houck) and the Baltimore Orioles (vs. Yarbrough). Batters to keep an eye on in those stacks are:
- Bo Bichette (3 for 6 off Houck, coming off a 5 for 5 game last night)
- Matt Chapman (48% hard hit percentage last 10 games)
- Alejandro Kirk (0.316 batting average last 10 games / top 20 wOBA)
- Byron Buxton (5 home runs last 9 games)
- Joey Gallo (3 home runs last 10 games)
- Rowdy Tellez (3 home runs last 9 games)
- Willy Adames (batting 130 points higher vs RHP)
- Adley Rutschman (19th highest rated batter according to Baseball Prospectus)
- Austin Hays (3 multi hit games in his last 5)
CORE BATTERS
CORBIN CARROL ($5200 DK)
The D’Backs rookie is batting 0.444 over the past 10 days and continues to make quality contact. He’s facing Jon Gray who has allowed at least 2 ER’s in every start (except the one he left early with an injury). I like an Arizona stack as well but if I’m playing one off then it’s be Carrol for me tonight.
NOTE: Carroll did get banged up over the weekend so keep an eye out for his status for tonight.
BYRON BUXTON ($5400 DK)
Buxton is in a groove of late. He has a 5 game hitting streak and has hit safely in 9 of the last 10 games. Plus he has 4 homers in the past 5 games giving him an average fantasy output of 18 DK points per game in that span. Kopech stinks as he has a FIP of 7.44 and xERA of 9.86. Attack this matchup as much as you can.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
EDWARD OLIVARES ($2900 DK)
The Royals OF has a 9 game hitting streak. And over the past 3 games he’s averaging 19 DK points per game. I like his chances tonight to extend that streak to 10 games.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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