Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Taco Tuesday here at Win Daily and it’s time for another edition of The Sweet Spot. We started the discussion about today’s slate last night on the Win Daily Sports You Tube Channel (click this link). And after additional research it’s apparent that we need to get very diverse with pitching on this big 12 game slate. I expect several arms below the $10K range to provide higher value than the big names on this slate.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:07 pm with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM Start
CLAYTON KERSHAW ($11,000 DK)
There are 4 pitcher’s with salaries of $10,000 or more on the slate. And of that group, the one I feel safest playing is Clayton Kershaw. There are two main reason’s I will consider using the Dodgers LHP tonight. The first is his amazing home splits. In four games started in LA, Kershaw has averaged 34.7 DK points per game is 3-0 with only 1 ER allowed. Opponents are batting just 0.130 against Kershaw at Dodgers Stadium and he has 27 K’s in 20 innings pitched.
The second reason is his opponent; the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are batting just 0.202 against left-handed pitching and have a 27.4% K rate (3rd highest in MLB). They are also last in runs scored versus LHP’s which makes this all the better of a spot for Kershaw.
ZACK WHEELER ($9200 DK)
Wheeler started the season slow as he allowed 14 ER’s in his first 5 starts. However, he’s started to figure things out and has allowed 1 ER or less in two of his last three outings. And those two starts were against formidable offenses in the Blue Jays and Astros. Add to that his advanced numbers show a FIP (2.59) almost 1.5 runs less than his ERA (3.80). Which is a good sign that his recent outings are more of a thing to come than his first few starts of the season.
Tonight, he faces the Giants who have the 2nd highest K rate in the MLB (25.4%) and are batting just 0.241 as a unit (18th in baseball). Wheeler’s recent uptick in both velocity and sweeper usage along with his advanced metrics show we are working towards another season like 2021 and 2022 where he finished with sub 3.00 ERA’s.
SHANE BIEBER ($9000 DK)
Shane Bieber had his best start of the year in his last outing in Detroit when he threw 6 shutout innings and registered 9 K’s. He was trending in a good direction with his previous 2 starts where he racked up 15 innings and allowed just 4 ER’s versus Boston and NYY. Tonight he faces the White Sox who are 22nd in batting and 25th in wRC+ on the season. While this is his first start against Chicago this season, he had 5 starts against them in 2022 and posted a 2.83 ERA and a 3-2 record. This White Sox team is less intimidating than last year’s without the likes of Abreu and Robert. So this should be another good spot for the Guardians RHP and we’ll want to ride the recent wave of success.
SETH LUGO ($8000 DK)
After watching what Michael Wacha did to the Royals last night, how could you not attack them again with a mid-career RHP that throws a deep arsenal of pitches? If you didn’t see it, Wacha went into the 8th inning with a no-hitter against Kansas City but then promptly let up a hit to the first batter. But in all, he pitched 7 shutout innings with 11 K’s which made him the top SP on the board last night. Lugo has been solid all year with a 3.18 ERA. And his best starts have come at home where he’s at tonight. This is another good spot for a steady performer (5 of 7 starts have been QS’s) versus an underwhelming offense (28th wOBA and 27th wRC+).
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
NICK PIVETTA ($6600 DK)
Here at Win Daily, we welcome you to the Nick Pivetta roller coaster. Step on up and grab a bumpy or smooth ride. That’s because we get one good start followed up with one terrible one. And the good news for us DFS players tonight is that he had a terrible start in his last outing which makes tonight the time to play him. In his last outing he couldn’t overcome walks and control and that has plagued him in his bad starts. He’s also allowed 8 HR’s in his 7 starts. But Seattle, his opponent tonight, is only 15th in BB% rate and just 20th in ISO. So I’ll ride the coaster of Pivetta performances tonight and hopefully get the smooth part of the adventure.
BONUS PICKS
I do like BAILEY OBER ($8500 DK) to an extent. He’s been fantastic in posting a 1.85 ERA in his 4 starts. At some point the damn will break but I could see another good outing from Ober tonight and a spot where he goes under-owned because of his opponent (LAD). The Dodgers offense has woken up over the past month but they are still 10th in K rate and have had lulls at moments during the season.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in the MLB are the Braves (vs Dunning), the Diamondbacks (vs. Muller), the Rockies (vs. Williamson) and the Cardinals (vs. Miley).
CORE BATTERS
NOLAN ARENADO ($4900 DK)
The Cardinals 3B is hitting 0.440 in the last week. On top of that he’s added 4 home runs to his season stats. And he’s hitting 0.360 in 25 career at-bats off Wade Miley. This seems like a perfect Sweet Spot based on recent form and past history.
For stacking, also look at the other Nolan tonight; Nolan Gorman. He’s also red-hot and coming off a monster game yesterday where he went 3 for 5 with a home run. And Willson Contreras has great numbers off Miley.
JOSE RAMIREZ ($5200 DK)
Yes this is another 3B, but we can’t pass up the opportunity to play Ramirez versus Lance Lynn. In his career, the Guardians slugger has hit 4 home runs and is batting 0.313 off the White Sox SP.
For stacking, look at Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, and Miles Straw as well.
RONALD ACUNA JR ($5200 DK)
To stay in the stacking theme, if you choose to go with Atlanta start with their leadoff hitter in Acuna Jr. He is hitting 0.375 in his last 6 games with 3 home runs. And he’s now up to 0.344 on the year putting himself in the MVP conversation.
Also consider Ozie Albies, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris (only $3400).
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
BRENTON DOYLE ($2900 DK)
For our value tonight, let’s go out to Colorado and look at Brenton Doyle. Over the past two games he is 4 for 7 with 2 home runs. That’s been good for 56 DK points. And tonight he gets a pitcher in his first career start in Brandon Williamson.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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