The MLB Sweet Spot LCS (Oct. 19th)

It’s a two game MLB slate today as both league Championship series are on center stage. The NLCS takes the early spotlight with Game 3 of the Phillies and Diamondbacks series set for first pitch at 5:07pm. The night game is a pivotal Game 4 in the ALCS between the Astros and Rangers. All four teams can explode at a moment’s notice. And with the pitching being suspect, the key will be finding value in the arms and then nailing the right mini-stacks in each lineup.

There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projections Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.

For DFS, the featured card today begins at 4:37p.m. with 2 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 2 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.

PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 5:07 PM Start

Since we have two games to choose from, my consolidated rankings of the SPs available is below. There is a high probability that we will see at least one, if not several, of these pitchers pulled early. For example, the Astros used just three relievers last night to pitch 3.1 innings and close out the win. If Jose Urquidy gets hit around early, they will surely look towards the pen. And same goes for both Andrew Heaney and Brandon Pfaadt. So I’ve added a few long-relievers that could be worth your investment today.

MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings for 10/19/23:

1. Ranger Suarez ($8600 DK)
2. Jose Urquidy ($7500 DK)
3. Andrew Heaney ($7000 DK)
4. Brandon Pfaadt ($7700 DK)
5. Dane Dunning ($7000 DK)
6. J.P. France ($7100 DK)

RANGER SUAREZ ($8600 DK)

Playoff Ranger is different from the regular season version of the same named pitcher. Including this postseason, Suarez is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in seven career playoff appearances. And he showed off that brilliance with two great starts versus the Braves in the Division series where he pitched 8.2 innings allowing just four hits and one ER.

And although it’s not truly correlative to today’s game, Ranger did pitch once in Arizona this season and threw seven shutout innings in a Phillies victory. But that’s Regular Season Ranger and I’m all-in on the Playoff Ranger that has a 1.04 ERA in the 2023 playoffs.

JOSE URQUIDY ($7500 DK)

Of the pitchers not named Suarez that are starting today, I trust Urquidy the most. And that’s primarily because of his experience of pitching in October. In 13 career postseason appearances, he has a 3.64 ERA and a 4-2 record. He pitched in the Division round against Minnesota, and pitched into the 6th inning allowing just 2 ER’s and striking out 6. Facing Texas will be a difficult chore and I’m expecting a tougher outing today. But one where I think it’s worth the risk compared to others available.

ZAC GALLEN ($8500 DK)

Heaney hasn’t been relied on to pitch more than 4+ innings in over a month. The Rangers used him as the Game 1 SP in their Division Round Series against Baltimore. And he ended up pitching well, going 3.2 innings and allowing just 1 ER. But as soon as they see trouble, especially with all the RH bats that Houston deploys, manager Bruce Bochey will quickly pull the hook and roll out Dane Dunning to get a few innings in relief. This will be a Heaney to Dunning piggy-back game and one where I likely lean towards Dunning more based on the Astros lineup construction.

BRANDON PFAADT ($7700 DK)

Pfaadt has pitched well in the playoffs to date. The Diamondbacks SP has thrown seven innings and allowed three runs. The issue is the price for the production. He’s the 2nd highest priced pitcher, facing the hottest lineup in baseball, and has yet to throw more than 4.1 innings in a playoff game. If the D’backs have learned anything from the Braves and Marlins, is that you can’t keep a fringe starter in too long against the Phillies. Just ask Bryce Elder.

KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER)

N/A

All pitchers identified above.

HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS

CLASSIC SLATE – 5:07 PM

MLB STACKS RANKED IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE:

1. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2. HOUSTON ASTROS
3. TEXAS RANGERS
4. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

CORE BATTERS

JOSE ALTUVE ($5700 DK)

Altuve hit his first home run of the postseason yesterday. And as we saw in the regular season, he loves to hit in the Rangers stadium. The other added benefit is that he faces a pitcher he’s had success off of today in Andrew Heaney. Altuve has 12 career hits off the Rangers SP including 2 home runs.

For stacking, I like ALEX BREGMAN, YORDAN ALVAREZ, JOSE ABREU, JEREMY PENA, and CHAS MCCORMICK.

SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) 

N/A

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