Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a #WinningWednesday here at The Sweet Spot. We’re subbing in for Jared today and hope we can stay up with his high standards.
We had a big takedown from a WinDaily member last night which just led back to our advice from last week that it’s Hitting Season for us daily players. A lot of people are jumping in baseball with the lull period starting between now and football. So let’s keep up the winning and build that bankroll!
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
CLAYTON KERSHAW ($10,800 DK)
Yesterday, I highly recommended going with Tony Gonsolin because of his matchup with the White Sox. And all he did was rack up 26.5 DK points which was the 2nd highest scoring output on the board. The reason I mention that, is because the facts we laid out yesterday for attacking the ChiSox have not changed.
The south siders are batting just 0.192 this month which is last in the MLB. They are also last in wOBA, ISO and wRC+. And even better for DFS players, they have a K rate north of 26.5% which is 2nd this month. In the month of June, they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their 10 contests. As for Kershaw, he’s put up and average of 32.2 DK points in his last two starts. In both of those outings, he struck out 9 batters. He’s trending in the right direction and has an opponent that is struggling woefully. Put your foot down on the gas and let’s go.
LUIS CASTILLO ($9800 DK)
Here is another situation that repeats some research and recommendation from yesterday. George Kirby racked up 10 K’s versus Miami and was the highest scoring pitcher on the board. And if you recall, I had a good feeling about Kirby and it was because of Miami’s recent struggles at the plate. This is what we said:
“The Marlins lineup has been shut down by SP’s in 4 straight starts as the combo of Cease, Kopech, Giolito and Bryce Miller allowed just 3 ER’s to Miami in 25 innings pitched.”
Well let’s add George Kirby to that mix and layout the last 5 starting pitchers against Miami have a stat line of:
30 IPs / 19 hits allowed / 3 ER’s / 37 K’s = 0.210 Batting Average Against + 0.90 ERA
Miami has scored more runs off teams bullpens then they have against starters in that stretch. I feel fully comfortable with rostering Castillo tonight as he’s on his own hot streak as well with a 1.44 ERA and 12.24 K/9 over his last 4 starts.
TYLER GLASNOW ($9400 DK)
What is going on in Oakland? The A’s are winners of 7 straight and 2 straight against the best team in baseball. Is it the move to Vegas that has woken this team up? Or is it just a quick hot streak that will soon be put out and they’ll return to their regular scheduled program?
My bet is they’ll return to bad baseball. But it is fun seeing them put together both timely hitting and quality pitching. That still doesn’t scare me from going with Tyler Glasnow today. In his first 3 starts he has 20 K’s in just 15.2 innings pitched. And he’s only allowed 5 hits over his past 11.1 innings pitched. For all the good vibes the A’s have going, the Rays have allowed just 6 runs in the first two games of this series. Here’s betting that pitching continues with a likelihood that Glasnow could surpass 90 pitches today.
JUSTIN VERLANDER ($8000 DK)
I can’t believe Verlander is down this low on the pitching slate today. It’s definitely a fair landing spot as his 4.85 ERA is the worst of his career since his first year in 2005 when he only started 2 games and had a 7.15 ERA. But I’m sticking to my guns here and committed to fading the New York Yankees because of their stats over the past 2 weeks. The Yankees are 29th in batting, 25th in wOBA and 24th in wRC+ in June. And that all went upwards after yesterday’s shellacking of Mets SP Max Scherzer.
Look, Verlander hasn’t been good this year. But he has had three starts where allowed just 1 ER. And those all followed subpar starts where he allowed multiple runs (including two games of 6 ER’s). Guess what he did in his last outing? You guessed it, allowed multiple runs. It was 5 to be exact which puts him back on the right side of the seesaw for tonight.
The salary and name make him attractive. But with so many good matchups, I still think he’ll have sub 10% ownership which could give us a leg up on the competition here.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
BEN LIVELY ($6800 DK)
The Reds SP has got roughed up in his last two starts allowing a combined 12 ER’s in those outings. But one piece of good news is that his K’s are still up as the struck out 13 in those games. And the other form of positive news is that he faces the Kansas City Royals tonight who are batting just 0.218 in the month of June (26th in MLB). They are also 29th in ISO, 27th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+. All those signs point to a return to positive output for Lively tonight.
RANGER SUAREZ ($5600 DK)
I can’t believe Suarez is still below $6K following his last 3 outings. In those starts he’s gone a minimum of 6 innings and has a 1.83 ERA. He’s also upped his K rate by striking out 8 Dodgers in his last performance. Yes, Arizona is one of the best hitting teams in the league. But that’s where Ranger typically excels because he uses change of speeds and both sides of the plate to keep aggressive hitters off balance. Add to that his FIP is 1.5 runs lower than his ERA and xFIP is 1.3 runs lower shows a this current positive regression should continue. This salary is way too low and worth your consideration today even in a tough matchup.
BONUS PICKS
I do like FRAMBER VALDEZ ($10,300 DK) today against the Nationals. The Nats have put up solid offensive numbers all year and are near impossible to strike out (lowest K rate in MLB). But they have hit an offensive skid of late batting just 0.228 over the past week. They also rarely walk, as witnessed by their 4.2% BB rate over the last 7 games. Valdez has 8 walks in his last 3 outings so he should be able to use this to his advantage. He is a contact pitcher with a extremely high GB% which matches up very well against an aggressive Nationals offense. This has potential for 7+ innings based on the our projections.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Rays (vs Medina), the Padres (vs. Civale), the Orioles (vs. Berrios) and the Dodgers (vs. Clevinger). Note these are all big lineup teams so it’s further reason why I’ll stay away from the $10K pitchers tonight.
CORE BATTERS
ADLEY RUTCHSMAN ($5400 DK)
I hate paying up for catchers but I’m going to do it tonight. Rutschman is 7 for 10 in his career off Jays SP Jose Berrios. Ane the O’s Offense is red hot scoring 17 runs in their past 2 games. I’ll start with Rutschman but there are many O’s that could be in line for a big night.
For stacking, look at RYAN OHEARN (56 DK points last 3 games), GUNNAR HENDERSON (homers in 4 of last 5 games), ANTHONY SANTANDER (7 hits last 4 games) AND AARON HICKS (39 DK points last 2 games). The Blue Jays could be a good run-back here too.
FERNANDO TATIS JR ($6500 DK)
The Padres offense is finally waking up. They have moved up from last in batting average to 28th. It’s baby steps but it’s all because they are getting healthy and finding consistent roles. Obviously, Tatis coming back has helped push them north in batting categories, as they are hitting 0.288 as a team over the past week. Individually, he is batting 0.367 with 4 home runs and 10 RBI’s in the month of June. I look for that to continue tonight against Aaron Civale.
For stacking, I also like MANNY MACHADO (batting 0.400 in last 7 games), GARY SANCHEZ, JAKE CRONENWORTH AND JUAN SOTO today for the Padres.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
TOMMY PHAM ($2900 DK)
If there’s been one bright spot in the Mets lineup of late it has been Tommy Pham. He’s average 9.9 DK points in 9 games in June. And he has great career numbers off Gerrit Cole with 11 hits in 33 at-bats. He’s in a groove and facing a pitcher he’s had success against. It’s for those reasons I see good value in Pham tonight.
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