Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Taco Tuesday here at The Sweet Spot. We’re coming off a 40x payout last night in a GPP (173.6 pt lineup) which was following a 20x payout on Sunday (163.4 pt lineup). So we are heating up just like the weather and hope to keep it hot here for you as well (look back at my Braxton Garrett play from Sunday where he put up a season high 27.6 DK pts).
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 14 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 14 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
ZACK WHEELER ($10,100 DK)
The Phillies workhorse has some great predictive numbers that point towards positive performances going forward. His 3.91 ERA is met with a FIP of 2.74. Wheeler’s SIERA and xFIP are also about 0.5 runs lower than his ERA. And his 2.6 WAR is the highest of any starter today.
But my concern for tonight is that he is facing an Arizona team that can be very difficult to attack. Arizona has the 3rd lowest K rate, 19.8%, and the 3rd highest batting average, 0.263. They saw Wheeler about one month ago and knocked him around for 4 runs while striking out just 3 times. I think Wheeler will be a pitcher we use quite often over the next few months but I’m going to avoid him tonight based on matchup and probability of a low K output.
CORBIN BURNES ($9900 DK)
Burnes threw a great game against the O’s in his last outing with 9 K’s and 0 ER’s. He looks to continue that tonight against the Minnesota Twins. And I have confidence that he can keep his positive trend going, 7 quality starts in last 8 games, as the Twins are struggling at the plate. In the month of June, Minnesota is 24th in batting, 25th in OPS and 25th in wOBA. More importantly they are 1st in K rate at 28.7%. At a minimum, Burnes should be in line for 7+ K’s which puts him at the top of our list for starting arms today.
MAX SCHERZER ($9800 DK)
While Scherzer finally got touched up last time out against the Braves, he has been really good since his return to the rotation in early May. Over his last 5 starts he has 2.34 ERA with 38 K’s. The better news is that his opponent, the New York Yankees, are in a slump at the plate. Since Judge went down on June 4th, the Yankees are last in batting in the MLB at 0.183. Additionally, they are averaging just 3.2 runs scored in those 6 contests and are coming off a series against the red Sox where they managed just 7 total runs in 3 games.
Scherzer should have no fear attacking this lineup in their current form. Not like he has fear against any lineup but he should have even more confidence against this lineup tonight and I expect him to pitch a gem.
TONY GONSOLIN ($8200 DK)
This was a tough choice because there are several good names to choose from in this $8K range today. Both Jack Flaherty and Joe Musgrove have good K potential which make their matchups enticing. Alex Cobb and Pablo Lopez both have NL Central teams with low batting averages making them worth a look.
But in the end I chose Gonsolin here because of his matchup with the White Sox. The south siders are batting just 0.210 this month and have a K rate north of 27%. In the month of June, they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their 9 contests. While Gonsolin’s walks have been an issue of late, Chicago has a 7.4% BB rate which is 20th in June. So some of his weaknesses can be offset by a free swinging lineup that is struggling to make solid contact and that is my recipe for why the Dodgers RHP is high in my player pool today.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
KUTTER CRAWFORD ($5900 DK)
Crawford was placed back in the starting rotation last week and surrendered 2 ER’s in 3 innings of work. He should likely have a longer leash today, as he reached only 58 pitches in his last outing, as he continues to stretch out into a normal starting workload. If so, that will be a benefit to us as he faces a Rockies team that is batting just 0.237 this month with a K rate of 26.6%. As we saw James Paxton last night roll up 8 K’s in 6 innings, there is a good matchup for Crawford to ride some of that momentum that his teammate started last night.
BONUS PICKS
I do like GEORGE KIRBY ($9300 DK) today against the Marlins. For his career he’s been a better starter at home. And while his ERA is 0.5 runs higher at home than on the road, his K numbers are much better at SafeCo Field. The Marlins lineup has been shut down by SP’s in 4 straight starts as the combo of Cease, Kopech, Giolito and Bryce Miller allowed just 3 ER’s to Miami in 25 innings pitched.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Astros (vs Corbin), the Phillies (vs. Davies), the Blue Jays (vs. Kremer) and the Dodgers (vs. Lynn). Note these are all big lineup teams so it’s further reason why I’ll stay away from the $10K pitchers tonight.
CORE BATTERS
VLAD GUERRERO JR ($5200 DK)
The Jays 1B has great numbers off O’s starting pitcher Dean Kremer. In 19 at-bats he has 6 hits with 4 of those being homers. He’s also had hits in 9 of his last 11 games so he’s coming into this contest in good form.
For stacking, look at GEORGE SPRINGER, BO BICHETTE AND ALEJANDRO KIRK. If Santiago Espinal is playing consider him too as he’s 5 for 7 in his career off Kremer.
MOOKIE BETTS ($6500 DK)
Betts is coming off a series against the Phillies where he went 5 for 12 and averaged 15 DK points per game. And now he gets to face a familiar foe in Lance Lynn who he has a career 0.313 batting average against. Also, if you know Lynn then you know he lets up 5+ ER’s or completely shuts you down. I’ll take my chances his 6.72 ERA is more of a sign of normality and that he sticks to the getting hit script.
For stacking, I also like WILL SMITH, MAX MUNCY, DAVID PERALTA AND FREDDIE FREEMAN today for the Dodgers.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
YANIER DIAZ ($2800 DK)
My slap hitter from Sunday, Ryan O’Hearn, went out and registered 30 DK points for us. If you had him, then you were likely cashing lineups. We’ll try to replicate that tonight with Yainer Diaz from the Houston Astros. Diaz is hitting 0.433 in his last 7 games and averaging 10 DK points in that span. We need to attack Corbin from some angles in this lineup and there’s some value in using the Abreu, Diaz, McCormick, Meyers, and Maldanado portion of this lineup.
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