Dave Gloeckner 
Happy 4th of July everyone and welcome to a holiday edition of The Sweet Spot. I hope you can relax and enjoy this great day in celebration of our nation’s freedom. It starts with an American tradition as Joey Chestnut will scarf down 100+ dogs and it’ll end with the greatest of traditions, booming loud fireworks. But somewhere in between, we’re going to be winning some DFS contests and MLB bets.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, we look at the early card today which begins at 1:05 pm with 8 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 8 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM Start
ZACH EFLIN ($10,700 DK)
The pitching matchup of the early slate is in Tampa between Eflin and Aaron Nola. And I’m rolling with the former Philadelphia Phillie as the better option. That’s primarily because Eflin is 8-0 with a 2.17 ERA at home as he has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 8 home starts. Plus the Phillies struggled over the weekend against Nationals RHP. They exploded for 19 runs in the game Mackenzie Gore started but managed just 5 runs in the 2 games Josiah Gray and Trevor Williams started.
Then there’s this little thing about added motivation. Zach Eflin spent his entire major league career in Philadelphia, 7 years, until becoming a free agent this winter. It will be emotional for him, but I think he’s going to have a little extra in the tank today and will want to show Philly they could have used his 9-3 record with a 3.29 ERA.
JESUS LUZARDO ($10,300 DK)
The Cardinals offense is hitting 0.292 against LHP’s over the past 2 weeks which is good for 4th in baseball. But the key number is they are striking out 25% of the time. This is great news for Luzardo as he’s coming into this game with 18 K’s in his past 2 outings. And we get the added bonus that he’s home today where his ERA is 2 full runs lower (2.65) than his road split (4.64). He’s on a good run of 3 straight quality starts (and four of five) which should bode well going into today against the Redbirds.
BRANDON BIELAK ($8000 DK)
Bielak got sent down to the minors for good reason as he went 1-2 and allowed 13 runs over his last 3 starts. He’s getting another shot today as Houston tries to align its rotation to allow for extra rest for it’s SP’s. His reward is facing the Colorado Rockies who are 13-29 on the road and have lost 8 straight away from Coors Field. And with those numbers, you won’t be surprised to hear they are 22nd in road batting average (0.235) and 28th in road wOBA (0.292). Strikeouts follow whether you’re home or away so we’ll finish with the last 2 weeks K rate which is 26.1% good for 4th highest in baseball. That gives me just enough confidence to put Bielak in my player pool today.
KYLE HENDRICKS ($7700 DK)
Kyle Hendricks has a very nice, but quiet, 2.81 ERA in 2023. Yes, he got off to a late start but over his past 4 outings, he’s allowed just 6 ERs. The problem with Hendricks is that we’ll never get the K value necessary to reap in a big start. But he has the potential to go deep in games and bring back 20+ point value. And that’s what we’re projecting today as Milwaukee’s offense is still somewhat of an enigma. While they plated 8 yesterday, they are batting just 0.229 over the past 2 weeks (26th). In that same span, they are 27th in wOBA, 28th in ISO, and 12th in K rate. And one last thing to add here, Hendricks has a 1.77 road ERA in 2023.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
DANE DUNNING ($6600 DK)
Dunning stunned us all in his last outing and if you rostered him then you were ahead of the field. In his last start, he went 8.2 innings and struck out 10 Detroit Tigers which was good for 37.1 DK points. On the season, Dunning is now 7-1 with a 2.69 ERA. Even though he struck out 10 last game, he doesn’t have a high K potential as his 5.71 K/9 is the 3rd lowest on the slate (only Hendricks and Wainwright have a lower K/9). But it’s the opponent that has me circling this game as Boston is striking out the 2nd most over the past 2 weeks and posting a 27.4% K rate. Additionally, they haven’t hit for much either and Matasaka Yoshida is questionable for today as he sat out the last game with a leg contusion.
BONUS PICKS
I do like KENTA MAEDA ($7100 DK) today. He’s facing the Royals (check) and has fared well in his last 2 outings (check). Plus his advanced metrics show a FIP that is 2.3 runs lower than his actual ERA. He’s been victimized by balls in play finding holes (BABIP of 0.364). But his K rate is healthy which is good news versus a Royals team that has the 3rd highest K rate over the past 2 weeks; 27.3%.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the MARLINS (vs Wainwright), the ASTROS (vs. Freeland), the YANKEES (vs. Gibson), and the TWINS (vs Greinke).
CORE BATTERS
LUIS ARRAEZ ($4800 DK)
We all know how good of a season Arraez his having as his 0.388 batting average is 53 points higher than the next closest batter. Today he gets a good chance at improving that as opponents are batting 0.358 off Adam Wainwright. He has the highest ERA of any qualified starter at 7.45 and doesn’t have one game with less than 3 runs allowed.
For stacking, look at JORGE SOLER, BRYAN DE LA CRUZ, GARRETT COOPER, JESUS SANCHEZ, and JEAN SEGURA.
BYRON BUXTON ($5300 DK)
The Twins beat up on Royals pitching yesterday to the tune of 8 runs. And that was without any offensive support from their start Byron Buxton (0 for 3 with 2 SF’s). I expect that to change today as Buxton hits Royals SP Zack Greinke well batting 0.389 with a home run.
For stacking, I also like CARLOS CORREA, CHRISTIAN VAZQUEZ, MAX KEPLER and ALEX KIRILOFF.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
ISIAH KINER-FLEFA ($2100 DK)
Obviously, check to see if IKF is in the lineup today. But if he is, I’m going to get my shares of him based on his recent play. Kiner-Falefa has 9 hits in his last 6 games and is averaging 12.2 DK points in that span. And today he gets Kyle Gibson who has allowed 11 ER’s in his past 2 starts.
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