Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Taco Tuesday at WinDaily Sports which means it’s my turn for MLB DFS. So we’re ushering in our weekday edition of The Sweet Spot. Monday brought us several surprises as two huge underdogs won outright in Pittsburgh and Kansas City. That damaged many DFS lineups as Yu Darvish was over 50% ownership in all GPP’s. But if you were daring enough to stack a desolate Pirates offense then you lapped the field as the likes of Carlos Santana (39 DK points / 0.7% ownership) and Jack Suwinski (22 DK points / 2.4% ownership) had big games against San Diego. It is another example that getting different is the way to win in GPP’s. Sometimes, you just need enough lineups to get to the one stack that breaks the slate.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
PABLO LOPEZ ($10,400 DK)
We have a replay of a game that happened just last week as Pablo Lopez faces the Mariners for a second straight start. In the most recent game, Lopez pitched 5 innings and allowed 2 ER’s but ended up taking the loss as he was outdueled by George Kirby. What’s attractive to me in this re-match is the fact that Seattle’s offense has been an enigma of late. Since the break, they’ve scored 42 runs in 11 games. That’s good for 21st in baseball but 19 of those runs came in 2 games. In the other 9 games they’ve scored just 23 runs good for 2.5 per game. And they lost one of their power bats in Jared Kelenic after he broke his foot kicking a water cooler in frustration.
Let’s add to that Lopez’s 30.2% K rate which is 2nd on the slate trailing only Blake Snell. And Seattle is striking out at the 4th highest rate, 28.5%, since the All Star Break. Finally, Lopez’s FIP and SIERA are almost 1 full run lower than his actual ERA showing positive regression is in site. Add it all up and I like Lopez’s chances of pitching a gem versus Seattle tonight.
CORBIN BURNES ($9200 DK)
I heard a stat the other day regarding Corbin Burnes that simply amazed me. The Brewers ace has never pitched a complete game in the majors. And last Thursday could have been a perfect opportunity as he pitched 8 shutout innings against the Phillies while racking up 10 K’s. He looked dominant and in full control of all his offerings but most importantly his cutter and curveball. In his two starts since the Break, he has pitched 14 shutout innings and recorded 24 K’s while averaging 40.1 DK points. He has regained his Cy Young form from 2 years ago.
The recent success is attributed his curveball usage as he’s thrown the pitch 28% of the time over the past 2 games. And that’s an increase of roughly 11% as he normally threw the curve just 17% prior to the All Star Break. Tonight he gets to face one of those teams he’s already flashed his new stuff, and dominance, against in the Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers are now 9-1 on the season against the Reds and have allowed just 5 runs in the last 5 matchups. Add to that Burnes is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 26 K’s in three outings against the Reds this year and he should be in line for another quality start against his Division rivals.
ALEX COBB ($7600 DK)
The Giants are happy to get back home to the West Coast as they come into tonight’s game with a 6-game losing streak. Waiting for them is the worst team in baseball in the Oakland A’s. So the Giants hand the ball to Alex Cobb in hopes of ending this poor stretch of baseball and trying to keep a grip on a potential playoff berth.
Good news is, Alex Cobb has been great at home. In 7 starts, he is 4-1 with a 1.24 ERA at AT&T Park. The other good news is, the Oakland A’s are still one of the worst batting teams in baseball. On the season they are last in batting average, 28th in ISO and 29th in wOBA. And they’ve continued that since the Break batting just 0.220 which is 27th in the MLB. Their K rate is also top 4 on the season and in the past 2 weeks. We’re getting Cobb at a great price (only 3rd time below $8K) and with an outstanding matchup.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
KYLE HENDRICKS ($6800 DK)
Hendricks has been steady all season posting a respectable 3.38 ERA. While he doesn’t have a high K rate, he has struck out exactly 5 batters in each of the last 4 games. Tonight he gets the White Sox who are 20th in wOBA and wRC+ since the break. Add to that the Cubs are coming in with a 3 game winning streak while the White Sox have lost 3 in a row. Two teams, located geographically within miles of each other, going in opposite directions. I’ll take my chances that we can squeeze some value out of Hendricks tonight.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JUSTIN VERLANDER ($9100 DK) and AARON CIVALE ($7200 DK) tonight. Verlander has been quietly good for the Mets of late. Over his past 5 starts, he has a 1.74 ERA and has struck out 26 batters. The Yankees have the 9th highest K rate (25.1%) since the break and are batting just 0.227 as a team over that stretch of games. As for Civale, he faced this Royals team back on July 7th and pitched his best game of the year against them. In that outing he went 7 innings allowing 2 hits and 0 ERs while striking out 9.
Keep an eye out for BLAKE SNELL ($10,000 DK) as well. My concern is his walk rate as he offered 7 free passes in his last outing. Pittsburgh has the 7th highest walk rate in the league at 9%. But the flip side is the Pirates batters have a collective 0.116 batting average against Snell in 52 plate appearances. And he owns a 0.71 ERA over his past 11 outings.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the RANGERS (vs. FRANCE), the ASTROS (vs. Bradford), the GUARDIANS (vs. Greinke), the DIAMONDBACKS (vs. Matz) and the NATIONALS (vs. Gomber).
CORE BATTERS
CHRISTIAN WALKER ($5400 DK)
The Diamondback 1B has 9 hits over his past 7 games. Included in that are 3 home runs including one last night against the Cardinals. I’m looking to stack righties against Steven Matz as he’s allowing a 0.297/0.358/0.467 slash line against RHB’s this year. And his 5.49 road ERA is attractive to attack as well.
For stacking, look at KETEL MARTE, LOURDES GURRIEL JR, CORBIN CARROLL, GERALDO PERDOMO and EMMANUEL RIVERA.
JOSE RAMIREZ ($5300 DK)
The Guardians have racked up 10 or more hits in 5 of their last 7 games. Tonight they get Zack Greinke on the road which is every DFS players dream. Greinke is 0-6 with a 7.42 ERA away from Kansas City and I expect that to stay the same tonight based on the way Cleveland is hitting. So we’ll lead off with Jose Ramirez who has 10 hits in his last 7 games.
For stacking, I also like STEVEN KWAN, AMED ROSARIO, JOSH NAYLOR, JOSH BELL and MYLES STRAW.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
ANDRUW MONASTERIO ($2400 DK) & SAL FRELICK ($2900 DK)
We’ll put 2 names in the Slap Hitter spot today both residing out of Milwaukee. First, Andruw Monasterio has been red hot with 11 hits over his past 8 games. He’s averaged 8.5 DK points in those contests and his salary dipped by $300 today. Sal Frelick is an exciting prospect that was just called up. And he has 5 hits in his first 9 at-bats including a home run. He had a chance to make the team out of spring training but didn’t and is now making everything out of this opportunity.
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