Dave Gloeckner 
I have the MLB TV package solely for one reason, and that’s Shohei Ohtani. I can see every Phillies game I want, except for those AppleTV games which are a rarity anyways. But I needed MLB TV and the price for admission was in full display last night as I got to witness live what a must see Ohtani is.
If you didn’t see it, the Yankees walked Ohtani in the 5th to load the bases, and that was with runners at 1st and 3rd (a base wasn’t open). It worked as Moniak lined out to end the inning. But then in the 7th, with 2 outs and a runner on 1st, they opted to pitch to him. And all he did was deposit a 97 MPH fastball over the left-center field fence and then unleash a mammoth bat flip. It’s moments like these that are truly special and make this such a great game to follow.
But I digress and get to the important stuff for today, and that’s who we’re going to roster in our DFS lineups. I’ll admit, I had Griffin Canning last night but he was paired with Luzardo in my lineups so I missed out on some good opportunities to leapfrog the field. So I’m looking forward to tonight and trying to make sure I can optimize the pitchers since that’s been my downfall of late.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 14 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 14 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
JOE MUSGROVE ($9600 DK)
There hasn’t been a better pitcher over the past 1.5 months than Joe Musgrove. Well maybe his teammate Blake Snell could argue that statement. But in all seriousness, Musgrove has posted 10 straight outings of 3 ER’s or less, with 9 of those being quality starts. And in that span he is 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA. He’s also striking out almost 1 batter per inning and has a shiny 0.54 WHIP.
His opponent, the Blue Jays, have come out of the break hot and swept Arizona out of Canada. Since returning from the All Star hiatus, they are hitting 0.364 as a team. But a lot of that damage was done against the Diamondbacks bullpen as their relievers allowed 11 of the 18 runs the Jays scored in that series. Additionally, the Jays are ranked 27th against the cutter which Musgrove uses ~20% of the time. Finally, the Jays drafted Joe Musgrove back in 2011 but then traded him the next year. So there’s some added motivation for the Padres RHP tonight to keep his impressive pitching streak alive.
LUCAS GIOLITO ($9300 DK)
Let’s face it, this one is all about matchups. The New York Mets tripped and fell flat on their face coming out of the All Star Break. In fact, they tripped, fell and had a ball bounce off their face in the Dodgers series over the weekend. And at the plate, they managed just 3 runs in the series and batted just 0.113 with 26 K’s.
So I almost feel inclined to use any pitcher against the Mets, but it does so happen that Giolito has been in solid form for months now which further solidifies my position today. Over his past 7 starts he is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA and has 48 K’s in 44 innings pitched. The White Sox have some momentum as they are coming off a series win in Atlanta. And they’re going against a team going the opposite direction which should make for theatrics tonight in the Big Apple.
TARIK SKUBAL ($8400 DK)
My man Tarik Skubal is back and looking as good as he did when he was at top form in 2022. In his first 2 starts of this season, he’s pitched a total of 8 innings and allowed 0 ER’s with 11 strikeouts. And he’s still at a reasonable price tag even though he hasn’t exceeded 63 pitches in a game yet. Reports out of Detroit are that he will be extended more tonight which is even better news.
As for his opponent, the Royals have the 6th highest K rate and are just 26th in batting and ISO. They’ve scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 9 games. As it has been all season long, Kansas City is a team we like to attack and are not going to think twice here.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
LUIS MEDINA ($6100 DK)
Luis Medina has an 8.75 K/9 inning rate so far this season. And that was boosted in his last outing when he struck out 9 Red Sox batters. His reward is another chance against Boston tonight in Oakland. He’s put together 4 solid starts in a row with three of those producing 2.5x value or more. This is tricky because Boston has been hitting well but out of all pitchers in this range, I think Medina will be extremely under-owned and can put up 2.5x value (i.e. 15 DK points or more) based on his K potential.
BONUS PICKS
I do like BRYAN WOO ($7,900 DK) and PATRICK SANDOVAL ($7,500 DK) today. Woo has a FIP that is 0.55 below his current 3.63 ERA. He also has a 11.15 K/9 inning and 30.5% K rate. And he gets to face the Twins who lead the MLB with a 26.5% K rate.
As for Sandoval, Angels SP Griffin Canning struck out 12 NYY batters last night in a 120 pitch effort. The 120 pitches was the most by any MLB starting pitcher this season. And what’s important to note, it seems like Manager Phil Nevin would do it again if in the position. That’s because their bullpen is atrocious. It’s so bad that they brought up two relievers from AAA yesterday, and both own an ERA north of 5.00, to try and plug the holes. So if Sandoval is cooking, he will have a long leash which is a great angle to have for DFS and fantasy players.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the Cubs (vs Corbin), the Braves (vs. Davies), the Orioles (vs. Grove), the White Sox (vs Carrasco) and the Astros (vs Davis).
CORE BATTERS
CODY BELLINGER ($5400 DK)
The Cubs OF is on a tear of late batting 0.449 in the month of July. Over that stretch he has 5 home runs and 13 RBI’s which spans 13 games. And tonight he faces Patrick Corbin who he is batting 0.353 against in 22 plate appearances.
For stacking, look at CHRIS MOREL, NICO HOERNER, TREY MANCINI, IAN HAPP, and PATRICK WISDOM.
KYLE TUCKER ($4300 DK)
The Astros get to travel to Coors Field today and it’s coming at the right time. That’s because Houston is coming off a series in which they scored 38 runs against the Angels. And Tucker himself is hot and has the perfect launch angle for the thin air in Colorado. In the month of July, Tucker is batting 0.400 with 3 home runs and 13 RBI’s.
For stacking, I also like CHAS MCCORMICK, ALEX BREGMAN, JOSE ABREU, JEREMY PENA and MAURICIO DUBON.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
HENRY DAVIS ($2500 DK)
The Pirates young star had 3 consecutive multi-hit games coming into last night’s game with the Giants. While he failed to record a hit, he did hit the ball on the nose twice. So we’re going with the Pirates OF as he’s squaring the ball well and has a high hard hit rate (46.2%) since the All Star Break.
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