Dave Gloeckner 
Baseball is back after taking off for 4 days for its annual All Star Break. And we’ve seen some great baseball out of the break with the likes of Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez both racking up 13 K’s in an outing. So it’s been fun on the field but it is also the Sunday Funday edition of The Sweet Spot. We’re looking to open up this second half riding the analysis and momentum we had in the first half.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 10 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
ZACH EFLIN ($10,000 DK)
The top of the board has lots of big names but all have tough matchups. Except for Zach Eflin which is why we landed on him here. Eflin is much better at home but he has fared well on the road of late. In his last 2 away starts, against good offenses such as Arizona and SD, Eflin tossed 2 quality starts and posted a 2.76 ERA with 12 K’s in 13 innings.
As for the Royals, over the past 10 games they are last in the MLB in batting average (0.212) and 29th in wOBA and wRC+. Better yet, for our DFS reasons, they are striking out at the third highest rate, 27.8%. The Rays have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 10-3 sending the Royals to a 1-8 record in their last 9 games. This is just a prime spot to attack one of the worst offenses, and teams, in the majors.
ZACK WHEELER ($9600 DK)
We’re doubling down on Zack’s in the early slate, even if there is a slight difference in spelling. The latter, Zack Wheeler, is facing a tough matchup in the San Diego Padres. And he didn’t pitch great going into the break as he allowed 12 ER’s in his last 3 starts. But his advanced metrics scream positive regression and for that reason I’m going to jump on the Wheeler wagon while it’s still under $10K.
According to Fangrahps, Wheeler has a 3.5 WAR which is 3rd best for a pitcher in the MLB. This is coming from someone with a 4.05 ERA! His FIP is 2.83 which is 1.22 lower than his ERA. The issue has been the hits allowed as he’s already surrendered 102 hits in 104.1 innings. Some of that can be attributed to luck as he has a 0.328 BABIP which is 4th highest of pitchers starting today. And as you all know, that number, especially with a quality pitcher, will regress.
Today he gets the challenge of facing the Padres who are 3rd in ISO and 5th in wOBA in July. But Fernando Tatis Jr left last night’s game early due to a potential leg injury. He’s now questionable for today which would hurt the Padres offense greatly. Last point to make is that Wheeler faced the Padres last year in the regular season and threw 7 shutout innings with 9 K’s. Then he saw them twice in the postseason and allowed just 4 hits in 13 innings racking up a 1.38 ERA. He has the Padres number, he has positive regression coming, and should be inline for a great start today (Just keep an eye on the weather though it looks like there is a break in late afternoon).
BOBBY MILLER ($8300 DK)
We have a rare instance of a pitcher that fares way better on the road than at home. Bobby Miller has an ERA almost 4 runs lower on the road, allowing just 4 ER’s in his 3 starts away from Dodgers stadium. And he’s faced good teams in his away starts such as the Braves and Phillies. The added bonus is he gets to face the Mets who have come out of the break worse than they went in. The Dodgers have held the Mets to 4 hits and 1 run in 2 games this weekend. The New Yorkers are batting just 0.072 in those games and are showing emotional outbursts as the pressure adds each night.
This is another game that you’ll need to keep an eye on the weather but based on the team’s schedules and fact they don’t play each other again, MLB will do everything to squeeze this one in.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
KOLBY ALLARD ($6300 DK)
Allard has the best K potential of any pitcher under $7K today. He brings in a 10.13 K/9 and a 27.3% K rate. Today he gets the White Sox who can play right into that as they have a 27.3% K rate in July. Add to that, the Braves are coming off a rare loss so they should be extra-motivated coming into today’s game.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JUSTIN STEELE ($9,800 DK) and JOSIAH GRAY ($8100 DK) today. Both Boston and St Louis are in the top 3 in batting average this month. But to counter that, both Steele and Gray are in the top 24 in ERA in the MLB.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the Reds (vs Houser), the Rays (vs. Singer), the Orioles (vs. Miami bullpen), the Nationals (vs Flaherty) and the Rangers (vs Bibee).
CORE BATTERS
MATT MCCLAIN ($5400 DK)
The Reds have been shutout in both games to start their series against the Brewers. Corbin Burnes and Freddie Peralta both pitched gems to shutdown one of the feel good stories in the MLB. So I’m looking at the Reds to be active today against Brewers SP Adrian Houser. And I’ll build my Cincy stacks around Matt McClain. The Reds infielder has seen Houser before and is 2 for 3 off the Brewers RHP. He’s also batting 0.291 on the season and leads the Reds in slugging percentage.
For stacking, look at TYLER STEPHENSON, ELLIE DE LA CRUZ, JONATHAN INDIA, TJ FRIEDL, and SPENCER STEER.
LANE THOMAS ($4300 DK)
In a surprise, I’m adding the Nats as a stack I like today. Their career numbers off Flaherty are very good, as they’re hitting 0.320 as a team in 79 plate appearances off the Cardinals SP. Plus they’ve scored 13 runs in the first two games of this series. Lane Thomas is coming into this outing with a modest 4-game hitting streak but more importantly has risen his batting average above 0.300 on the season. Add to that, he’s 3 for 5 in his career off Flaherty.
For stacking, I also like JEIMER CANDALERIO (DTD), JOEY MENESES, COREY DICKERSON (DTD), LUIS GARCIA and CJ ABRAMS.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
TRAVIS JANIKOWSKI ($2900 DK)
If you’re going to roll out a Texas Rangers stack, consider rostering Janikowski. For one reason, the Rangers are expensive so you’ll need to find some discounts. But secondly, Janikowski has 9 hits in his current 6-game hitting streak. In that span, he’s averaging 12 DK points per game.
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