Dave Gloeckner 
Wednesday brought us a profitable day as we turned in a 4-1 card and +2.9 units with our props and bets. We are now 70-48-1 on the month and +18.5 units. DFS was good as well as our value pitcher, Christopher Sanchez, put up a 4x game which helped propel several of our lineups to cashing.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card begins at 7:05 pm with 6 games to choose from. Jason and I broke down the card last night and you can see that analysis in the video above. There are day games today, but this article will only feature the night card.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +42.6 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
JACOB DEGROM ($10,800 DK) – I don’t have to convince anyone on starting Jacob DeGrom. He is an automatic start almost every time he takes the mound. But what I do have to do is look at what his value is and how he aligns to other pitchers on the market. For tonight, all those points do align nicely and he is my favorite play on the board. First off, the slate is not very deep with aces. I see three at the top and maybe one other arm in the middle that I will play. So that makes him attractive and so does his matchup. The Colorado Rockies are just 18th in batting on the road (0.236) and are 26th in wOBA and wRC+ away from Coors Field. DeGrom should have a field day versus a heavy right-handed hitting lineup.
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($9600 DK) – My number 2 pitcher for tonight is Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays. Gausman leads all projected starters with a 4.8 WAR. His 2.99 ERA is met with a 2.05 FIP. In short, his advanced numbers indicate he is a better pitcher than his ERA and 9-9 record indicate. Looking closely at two things put me over the top on Gausman. First, in his last 3 road starts he has pitched 21 innings and has a 0.00 ERA with 22 K’s. Secondly, he’s faced his opponent tonight, the Red Sox, 4 previous times this year and had great success. In those games he is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 37 K’s in 26 innings pitched. Good road pitcher and good against his opponent make this a very nice spot for Gausman.
AARON NOLA ($10000 DK) – Aaron Nola just doesn’t seem to pitch well at home. In his last outing, the Mets snapped a streak of 14 straight starts with 6 innings pitched or more as he only managed 5 innings against the New Yorkers while allowing 5 ERs. However, like McClanahan last night, tonight it’s not about his recent form or struggles at home. It’s about his opponent and he gets one of the juicier matchups in the Cincinnati Reds. In August, Cincy is 20th in wOBA, 25th in wRC+ and 27th in ISO. They are also striking out at a 25% clip which is 5th in the MLB. There is value in Nola tonight to go deep and rack up K’s.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JORDAN LYLES ($6700 DK): I will not be dipping this low tonight based upon the depth of the slate and the value of the top arms. But if I did, I would consider Jordan Lyles against the White Sox. Chicago is just 29th in ISO this month and is 19th in runs scored. Lyles is much better at home where he has a 4-2 record and a 3.13 ERA.
BONUS PICK: I do like LANCE LYNN ($7800 DK) tonight against the Orioles. The Sox righty has started to find a groove as he’s registered 6 straight games of double digit DK points. He is 2-2 in that span with a 3.07 ERA. The O’s ae in the top 10 in several hitting categories this month. But they’ve seen 3 power RHP’s in the last 4 days and hit just 0.245 against the trio of Pivetta, Cease and Giolito. They also struck out 16 times in 17 innings against those pitchers.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
JOSE ALTUVE ($5200 DK) – Altuve has Chris Archer in his book. The Astros 2B has 6 career hits off Archer with 2 leaving the yard. Archer has allowed 7 of his 9 home runs on the road this year and I expect that Astros to add to that.
AARON JUDGE ($6200 DK) – Judge is back on pace to break Roger Maris’s home run total of 61 as he hit home runs in consecutive games coming into tonight’s contest with Oakland. A’s starter James Kaprielian is a fly ball pitcher (45.6 FB%) has allowed 15 home runs on the season which adds to the value of Judge tonight.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Phillies tonight. Philadelphia is hitting Reds pitching well this week as highlighted by their 14 runs in the last 2 games. James Dunn is starting only his second game and has a 6.08 ERA. I look to roster bats like Schwarber, Hoskins, Bohm, Castellanos, Realmuto. I’ll also look for value with Matt Vierling and Nick Maton if they are in the lineup.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
BRENT BATY ($2500 DK): Jason has a good feel about his Mets rookie tonight so I’m going to tail this one. Baty is only batting 0.148 but the talent is there. Tonight, he’s playing his first game at home which should give him incentive and potential for a big night.
MLB PROP BETS
KEVIN GAUSMAN over 5.5 K’s (-160 DK)
AARON NOLA over 20.5 outs (-105 DK) –
JAMES KAPRIELIAN over 1.5 BB’s (-170 DK) –
AARON JUDGE over 0.5 RBI’s (+125 DK)
PHILLIES & METS to not bat in bottom 9 (-115 DK Parlay) –
HOUSTON ASTROS F5 ML (-170 DK) –
JACOB DEGROM under 1.5 earned runs (-180 DK), under 3.5 hits (-120 DK) over 18.5 outs (-110 DK) –
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
