Dave Gloeckner 
We finished off last week with a winning Friday by going 5-2. We are now 59-41 on the month and +15.5 units. Our DFS lineups were profitable last week as well and we hope to keep that rolling into the last week of the month.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card begins at 7:05 pm with 8 games to choose from. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +39.6 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
MAX SCHERZER ($11,300 DK) – Max Scherzer’s salary has hit a new apex tonight as his $11,300 price tag is the highest of the season. And it’s a clear reaction to his recent pitching plus the recent play of his opponent, the New York Yankees. Scherzer has been great in big games this year and he will likely be spectacular again tonight. But of his last 6 outings, only one has gone over 23.0 DK points. Meaning that he’s failed to bring back 2x value 5 of his last 6 outings. I realize the Yankees are a mess at the plate, but I just think we can build some better balance in the pitching staff by avoiding this play. However, I will consider Scherzer in cash games.
EDWARD CABRERA ($8800 DK) – The Marlins SP has been trending up as of late. Since his implementation into the starting rotation, he’s pitched 6 games and recorded 19.4 DK points or more in 5 of those outings. He has 36 K’s over 30.1 innings pitched and has allowed 0 ER’s in 4 of his starts. He has a nasty arsenal of pitches including a plus slider and changeup. Tonight, he faces the Oakland A’s who are one of the weaker hitting teams in the league. Just looking at Cabrera’s two main pitches, the A’s are 30th in batting against the slider and 29th against the changeup. This is just a really good spot for the Marlins RHP to continue his surge.
JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($8200 DK) – Jordan Montgomery has been great since putting on a Cardinals uniform. Over his first 3 starts, he is averaging 24 DK points per outing for St Louis. In those starts he has a 0.54 ERA and has struck out 17 batters in 16.2 innings. Tonight, he gets the Chicago Cubs who have been struggling against LHP’s in August. The Cubs are 19th in batting, 24th in wOBA and 24th in wRC+ versus southpaws. Even more polarizing is the fact they are 6th in K rate striking out 26% of the time against LHP’s.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
N/A: I don’t recommend any pitchers under $7K tonight.
BONUS PICK: I do like JULIO URIAS ($10000 DK) tonight against the Brewers and JAKE ODORIZZI ($7200 DK) against the Pirates. First off, Julio Urias pitched against the Brewers last week and hurled 5 shutout innings. He’s won 6 outings in a row allowing just 3 ER’s while averaging 25.1 DK points in those contests. The Brewers struggle against LHP’s as they are batting just 0.196 against lefties in the month of August and are 29th on the season at 0.217.
As for Odorizzi, he’s been absolutely terrible for the Braves since coming over from the Astros at the trade deadline. He’s 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA over 3 starts in an Atlanta uniform. However, that might be the exact reason he’ll have a low ownership tonight. Looking at his matchup, he’s going against the Pirates who are 29th in batting, 29th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ on the season. This should be the perfect opponent for Odorizzi to earn his keep with the Braves.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
TREA TURNER ($6100 DK) – Turner is 5 for 12 in his career off Brewers starter Eric Lauer. And that included 2 home runs. One thing we know about Lauer is that he is susceptible to the longball as he’s allowed 22 on the season.
ALEC BOHM ($4800 DK) – The Phillies 3B recorded 39 DK points yesterday as he hit 2 home runs and had 6 RBI’s. Tonight, he gets the softest pitcher on the board in Luis Cessa. Bohm saw Cessa last week and was 2 for 2 off the Reds righty.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Phillies tonight. The Phillies scored 13 runs over the weekend versus the Mets but lost a painful game on Sunday by the score of 10-9. Their offense tends to hit better at home where they are tonight. I’m looking at hitters such as Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Nick Maton and Rhys Hoskins. Jean Segura is also in play as he has returned from the IL with a bang.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
VAUGHN GRISSOM ($2100 DK): We have another night with Grissom under $3K and the Braves are in play for a stack against Roansy Contreras.
MLB PROP BETS
EDWARD CABRERA over 16.5 outs (-110 DK)
TAMPA BAY RAYS no bat in bottom 9 (-140 DK) –
NOAH SYNDERGAARD over 4.5 K’s (-120 DK) and over 5.5 hits allowed (-110 DK) – Singer faced Tampa once this season and racked up 12 K’s in that outing. This looks like a sweet spot to attack as Tampa is 4th in K Rate in August.
LA DODGERS over 2.5 runs F5 (-105 DK) – Eric Lauer’s ERA on the road is 2 runs higher than his home ERA. He’s allowed 3 ER’s or more in 6 of his last 9 road starts.
JULIO URIAS over 17.5 outs (-150 DK) –
JORDAN MONTGOMERY under 2.5 earned runs (-140 DK) –
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
