Dave Gloeckner 
We have a packed MLB schedule today as we have 13 games on the Main Slate tonight. A combination of Rangers and Cardinals hitters led to winning lineups last night. But 3 pitchers with salaries of $8100 or less put up over 26 DK points and were ultimately the biggest keys to cashing last night. We’ll see if we can find those gems in our analysis and recommended plays here at The Sweet Spot.
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 13 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
ZACK WHEELER ($11,600 DK)
I have nightmares about a matchup last year between the Phillies and Blue Jays. In that game, Wheeler allowed 6 ER’s and couldn’t make it out of the 5th inning. It just showed how tough the Jays lineup can be as they provide quality bats up and down the lineup. Toronto ended up leading the MLB in batting average last season at a 0.265 clip.
So I fast forward to 2023 with that information in hand. And what I’ve found is that Wheeler tends to struggle against good hitting teams. Of the teams he’s faced that are top 6 in batting average, he has a 4.55 ERA in 10 outings. While one of those games was against the Blue Jays and he performed well, I think this is too steep a price to pay for a unfavorable matchup.
BOBBY MILLER ($9300 DK)
The upper tier of pitching tonight is littered with tough matchups. So I’ll start my quest of finding quality pitching at a good price with Bobby Miller from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miller hasn’t had a game over 20 DK points in two months. But he’s started to pitch better of late as he’s allowed just 1 ER over his past 13.2 innings pitched.
Tonight he faces the Brewers who are batting just 0.246 this month (17th in baseball). But more importantly, they are batting 0.234 for the season which is good for 28th in the MLB. The other issue for Milwaukee is they are striking out at the 8th highest rate in big leagues. It’s a favorable matchup for Miller and one that I’m willing to ride based on his recent performance and the bats he’s facing.
YUSEI KIKUCHI ($9000 DK)
Kikuchi has been a nice surprise for the Blue Jays this season as he’s posting a career best 3.54 ERA and has a 9-4 record. What’s driving that improvement is a career low WHIP of 1.23 combined with a career low walk rate of 2.3 BB/9. And with all of that, he hasn’t a decrease in K rate as he is keeping up with his past 3-year averages in that category.
Which brings us to tonight’s opponent in the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have found a spark at the plate and put up crooked numbers of late. But they were recently silenced to the tune of 1 run over the past two games by a combination of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and the Twins bullpen. Additionally, the Phillies have a 25.2% K rate versus LHP’s, good for 4th highest in baseball. This is an ideal spot tonight for Kikuchi to rack up a high number of K’s and continue his solid seasonal performance.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
EMERSON HANCOCK ($5500 DK)
I think there is decent value in the bargain bin tonight and would be opposed to names such as David Peterson, Alex Faedo, Sean Manaea or Dakota Hudson. But I landed on Emerson Hancock because of his unfamiliarity with the league. He’s only pitched one game so far and fared well allowing just 2 hits and 1 ER over 5 innings of work. And now he gets a second appearance against a team in the Royals who are in the bottom 10 in baseball in average, OPS and ISO.
BONUS PICKS
I also like BAILEY OBER ($10,200 DK) and NICK PIVETTA ($7800 DK) today. Ober has been hit around of late but just struck out 9 versus Detroit in his last start. And he has those same Tigers again tonight. As for Pivetta, five of his last seven games have him scoring 22.9 DK points or more. And tonight he faces a scrappy Nationals team but one that has been quiet at the plate of late (unless you count their outbursts against Oakland’s bullpen). Add to that Pivetta has the highest K rate of any pitcher scheduled to throw tonight.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the RANGERS (vs. LAA), the BRAVES (vs. NYY), the DIAMONDBACKS (vs. Colorado), the DODGERS (vs. Milwaukee), PADRES (vs. Baltimore) and the CARDINALS (vs. Oakland).
CORE BATTERS
COREY SEAGER ($6300 DK)
The Rangers SS is on fire since coming back from the IL. In the month of August he has 5 home runs and is batting 0.326. Additionally, Giolito hasn’t been sharp since joining the Angels as he has allowed 12 ER’s in 9.2 innings.
For stacking, I like MARCUS SEMIEN, ADOLIS GARCIA, MITCH GARVER and EZEQUIAL DURAN.
JUAN SOTO ($5900 DK)
In the month of August, Soto is batting just 0.216. But he has four home runs and a 0.490 slugging percentage. Tonight, he faces Jack Flaherty who has a 10.2% BB rate. That will benefit Soto’s eye as he takes the most pitches per at-bat on SD.
For stacking, I like FERNANDO TATIS, HA-SEONG KIM, MANNY MACHADO, GARY SANCHEZ and XANDER BOGAERTS.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
JP MARTINEZ ($2500 DK)
The Rangers keep finding help whenever they need it. And JP Martinez is the latest example. Since coming up from AAA Round Rock, Martinez is hitting 0.400 with three straight multi-hit games. Texas is a live stack and JP Martinez should be considered for any Rangers quartet or quintet you decide to roster.
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