Dave Gloeckner 
We’ve had a good month of August and look to continue that streak into this week. So far this month, we have posted a 33-23 record with a +7.1 unit return.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card begins at 7:05 pm with 10 games to choose from. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +31.2 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
SHOHEI OHTANI ($10,300 DK) – Ohtani is happy to see someone else besides the Oakland A’s. He faced Oakland in his last 2 starts and went 1-1 while registering just 12 K’s over 11.2 innings. In his previous 6 starts going into his Oakland games, he has 68 K’s in 39 innings. Tonight, he faces Seattle who he saw back in June and went 6 innings with 0 ER’s and 6 K’s. In August, Seattle is 28th in batting average (0.212), 23rd in wOBA and 19th in wRC+. They are hitting 13th best against the FB and 24th against the slider which are the two pitches they will see over 70% of the time against Ohtani. Based on those numbers alone, this is a good spot to play the Angels ace.
GERRIT COLE ($10,100 DK) – My favorite arm on the slate is Gerrit Cole. While Cole’s ERA and win totals barely crack the top 30, he is 2nd in the MLB with 178 K’s. And tonight he is facing a team that he has completely dominated this year in the Tampa Bay Rays. In 3 starts against Tampa, Cole is 1-0 with a 0.91 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. More importantly, he has 29 K’s in just 19.2 innings of work versus the Rays. Over those outings, he’s averaged 30.8 DK points. And Tampa hasn’t exactly turned it around offensively since last seeing Cole as they are batting just 0.218 in the month of August which is 25th in the MLB.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
KRIS BUBIC ($6700 DK): We were able to get 2.5x value on all 5 of our “Value Pitchers” last week. This week we start with Kris Bubic. The Royals lefty has put together a string of 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings. In those contests, he has faced quality opponents like the Yankees, Blue Jays and White Sox. And his average DFS output has been 18.2 DK points per game. Since returning from his demotion to the minors, Bubic has 3.76 ERA in 10 starts. His recent success seems to be based on a more frequent use of his changeup (up to 30% since his return when his prior was 23%). He’s also walking less people and being more aggressive early in the count.
Bring on the Twins tonight who are back from an LA swing where they went 1-4 against the Dodgers and Angels. Since August 1st, the Twins are 21st in batting against LHP’s and 24th in wOBA. They are just 19th in runs scored and 18th in home runs this month. I like Bubic’s chances versus a team coming off a West Coast swing and not in the best form at the plate.
BONUS PICK: I do like JOSIAH GRAY ($7900 DK) tonight against the Cubs. Gray faced the Cubs last week and went 6.1 innings allowing just 2 ER’s and recording 5 K’s. That was good for 16.1 DFS DK points. This month alone, the Cubs are just 24th in runs scored and strikeout 24.1% of the time which is good for 9th in the league. The issue with Gray is the home run ball as he has allowed an astonishing 29 long balls this year. Good news is, the Cubs are just 17th in the league in homers on the season.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
MAX MUNCY ($4400 DK) – Muncy is on a mini-tear of late. He’s hitting 0.400 with 5 home runs in the month of August. Additionally, he leads the league in hard hit % with 62.5% of his contact being above 95 mph.
RYAN MOUNTCASTLE ($3500K) – Mountcastle has 2 home runs off Jays starter Kikuchi. The Orioles just faced Kikuchi last week and scored 5 runs and hit 3 home runs. Including one by Mountcastle. He was out of the lineup on Sunday after getting hit by a pitch on Saturday so keep an eye on his status.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Blue Jays today. The Jays have seen O’s starter Kyle Bradish twice in the past 2 months and have scored 8 runs in 9.2 innings. Bradish’s WHIP in those two games is 2.17. At least 5 Jays hitters have a 0.500 batting average off Bradish in those starts so see if you can roster a mix of Guerrero, Bichette, Hernandez, Kirk or Gurriel.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
VAUGHN GRISSOM ($2000 DK): It’s surreal that DK keeps pricing Grissom at the league minimum. But as long as he’s there we have to ride with it. The Braves 2B has hit in four of his five games and is averaging 13.2 DK points per game.
MLB PROP BETS
FREDDY PERALTA under 5.5 Ks (-155 DK) – Peralta has thrown just 65 and 67 pitches in his 2 starts since returning from the IL. While it’s perceivable that will go up tonight, the thought is he’ll still be limited. The Dodgers are also 21st in K Rate this season at just 21.4%.
LUIS CASTILLO over 6.5 K’s (-165 DK) – Castillo has 7 K’s or more in his last 5 starts. Tonight he faces the Angels who lead the league in K rate at 26% on the season. This is a high price to pay but is a real sweet spot to attack.
KRIS BUBIC over 16.5 outs (-125 DK)–
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES over 2.5 runs F5 (-120 DK) – The Phillies scored 2 runs over the weekend in New York. They should get back on track real quick tonight against Mike Minor who has a 6.24 ERA and has allowed 14 earned runs in his last 4 starts (teams have gone over 2.5 F5 in four of his last 5 starts).
SPENCER STRIDER over 1.5 walks (-155 DK) – Strider has walked 5 Mets in 7 innings of work this season.
GERRIT COLE over 9.5 K’s (+115 DK) and under 1.5 ER’s (+100 DK) –
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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