Dave Gloeckner 
We pumped out 5 winners yesterday but Goldschmidt not getting another base after an hit in the 1st inning left us with a losing day (down 0.5 units). So far this month, we have posted a 21-17 record with a +1.7 unit return.
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card begins at 1:05 pm with 6 games to choose from. Tony and I broke down today’s card on Win Daily Live on YouTube. Click the above video for the full breakdown. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +25.7 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM Start
DYLAN CEASE ($10,400 DK) – Dylan Cease is now 2nd in the MLB in ERA with a 1.98 number. He has a 12-4 record with 166 K’s. He’s been a true ace as he’s allowed over 2 ER’s just 3 times in 22 starts. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in his last 10 starts. Even better news is that he’s on the road today where he has a 1.33 ERA. Lastly, he’s faced Kansas City twice this season and has pitched 11.2 innings with 0 ER’s and 18 K’s. Play the White Sox ace with confidence as he’s clearly the best arm on this slate.
MERRILL KELLY ($9100 DK) – Kelly has been quietly consistent all season for the D’backs. His 2.86 ERA is good for 13th in the MLB and his 10 wins are tied for 12th. This has been the breakout season Arizona has been waiting for since they signed him from the South Korean league in 2018.
Tonight, he faces the Pirates who are struggling to hit as they are batting just 0.237 in August. Additionally they are 24th in home runs this month and 22nd in ISO. So far in this series with Arizona they are hitting just 0.216 and have scored 10 runs in 3 games. The D’backs ace, Zac Gallen, threw 7 shutout innings against Pittsburgh on Monday. And Kelly’s game lines up more closely to Gallen than any other pitcher on the staff.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
ZACK GREINKE ($5700 DK): If you are desperate to dip in this range then Zack Greinke seems like the only viable option. Greinke has a 2.33 ERA at home and has allowed more than 2 ER’s only once in 9 home starts. He doesn’t have a high K rate (13.1%) and only Dakota Hudson and Garrett hill have lower rates on the card today. But I do see a path where could put up 15+ DK points and return 3x value. It’s just not my recommended route as I think you can pair Cease with better arms today.
BONUS PICK: I do like JT BRUBAKER ($7800 DK) tonight against the D’backs. Brubaker’s FIP and SIERA are much lower than his current ERA of 4.49. He has been the victim of bad luck as his BABIP is 0.344 which is in the top 10 of the MLB. Brubaker has metrics we like which include a K rate above 20% (22.6%), a groundball rate above 40% (42.2%) and a HR/FB ratio under 10% (9.8%). He also flashed his potential in June and July as he had a stretch of 8 games where he averaged 16 DK points per game.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM
JOSE RAMIREZ ($5600 DK) – We’re going back to Ramirez as he has one of the most favorable matchups on the card today. Detroit SP Garrett Hill has allowed 5 home runs in 6 starts and has an xERA 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA. He doesn’t strike anyone out (lowest K rate on card) and allows hard contact.
PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT ($6200K) – Goldschmidt rakes against Rockies starter German Marquez. He is a 0.384 lifetime hitter off Marquez with 4 home runs.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack the Rockies today. In fact, I may stack both teams in Colorado today. The teams have combined for 35 runs in the first two games and today’s total is 12. Primarily I’ll look at Blackmon, Iglesias, Cron, Rodgers, McMahon and Grichuk from Colorado. But if possible, I’ll try to find a way to add Goldschmidt and Arenado too.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
JJ BLEDAY ($2100 DK): The Marlins OF has had a great series in Philly so far. He has 40 DK points over the first two games in the series with 4 hits in 6 at-bats. Today he gets to face Kyle Gibson who is susceptible to the long ball. (Note: I was in person when he let up back-to-back-to-back-to-back HR’s last month)
MLB PROP BETS
MERRILL KELLY over 18.5 outs (-140 DK) – Kelly has gone over this number in 6 of his last 7 starts and today he has his easiest opponent in that stretch.
DYLAN CEASE over 7.5 K’s (-110 DK) – Cease has faced KC twice this season and has 9 K’s in each start.
PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT over 0.5 home run (+280 DK), 1.5 total bases (-160 DK), 0.5 runs (-190 DK), and 0.5 RBI’s (-120) – Based on his numbers against Marquez, we’re playing the hitter superfecta with Goldy again.
FRAMBER VALDEZ under 2.5 ER’s (-160 DK) –
HOUSTON ASTROS to not bat in bottom of the 9th (-180 DK) – After last night’s debacle in extra innings, I am buying down the overall game price and betting that Houston takes care of business early. Also, Valdez has pitched two games against Texas and allowed just 1 ER in 13 innings.
PHILLIES & MARLINS NRFI (-130 DK) – The Phillies and Marlins have hit the NRFI prop in 6 of their last 8 outings.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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