Dave Gloeckner 
We turn the calendar to a new month as we enter the home stretch of the MLB Season. The biggest news today is the trade deadline as teams will make a final push to improve their rosters. For DFS purposes, it could also mean last minute tweaks since the deadline is 6pm today. So be sure to check the ticker and your preferred source for news to make sure a player you have rostered isn’t packing bags instead of playing. With that, we bring you the Sweet Spot which focuses on today’s main card and our preferred arms and bats. And today will be one in where we have some tough decisions to make with pitchers as there are five SP’s with salaries over $10K.
As a reminder, this article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets are provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 14 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 14 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
SPENCER STRIDER ($12,500 DK)
Strider’s salary is the highest on the board today and sits at a number that often makes me uncomfortable to roster a pitcher in. But he’s been on a heater of late with double digit strikeouts in 5 straight games. And he’s coming off his second best month of the year. One where he went 2-1 with a 3.73 ERA and 53 K’s in 31.1 innings. Looking at StatCast, he’s upped his slider usage by 4% since returning from the break. Which is key when looking at tonight’s opponent.
The Angels are in town which brings in the best player on the planet. Over the past week, the Angels have added key players as they’re going for a playoff run this year. But they’ve also added strikeouts to their lineup in CJ Cron (21.8%) and Randal Grichuk (20.2%). Add to that the Angels as a team are 15th against the slider, with a -0.5 wRC against the pitch, and we have high probability of another double digit strikeout game for Strider. Which does give him an edge over the other top line SP’s today.
ZAC GALLEN ($10,500 DK)
Ever since getting the nod as the NL’s starting pitcher in the All Star game, Gallen has been mediocre. He is 0-2 with a 5.90 ERA and his team has lost all three of his starts. But pitching tonight on 5 days rest as he hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday. That should help give his arm some needed relief.
But my biggest reasoning for liking Gallen tonight is his recent performances against the SF Giants. In the last 2 seasons, Gallen is 2-0 with a 1.68 ERA against San Francisco. And in 2 starts at AT&T Park, where tonight’s game is being played, Gallen is 1-0 with a 1.28 ERA and 17 K’s in 14 innings. This is a big game in the NL West and I think the D’backs ace will be up to the challenge.
LANCE LYNN ($7900 DK)
Lance Lynn was traded to the Dodgers recently as LA was lacking depth in the rotation due to injuries. On the surface, no one should get excited about a pitcher with a 6.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. But he does have a 10.8 K/9 and has experience in a pennant race. So the Dodgers believe they can rekindle some old magic in the big righty.
And today is a perfect landing spot for Lynn’s first start in Dodger blue as he gets to face the hapless Oakland A’s. On the season, the A’s are last in batting average (0.223) and wOBA. Not much hasn’t changed as of late as they are batting just 0.241 over the past 10 days which includes a series against the Rockies in Colorado. Lynn’s biggest weakness this year is that he has allowed 28 home runs which leads the MLB. The good news for Lynn is that Oakland is tied for 25th in the league with just 100 home runs.
So I’ll roll the dice with Lynn tonight in hopes a change of uniform will also change his pitching performance. And for what it’s worth, he has the highest differential between ERA and FIP of any pitcher on the slate today.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JOSE QUINTANA ($6100 DK)
As one of the Mets significant signings this offseason, Quintana ended up getting hurt early in the season only to return at a point when the Mets were beginning a fire sale. But never less, there are games to be played and he gets one of the best matchups on the board tonight in the Kansas City Royals. Quintana has pitched well in his two starts since returning from IL allowing just 2 ER’s in both starts. His last outing went 6 innings as he threw 94 pitches. The Mets LHP will have a full workload tonight against an offense ranked 28th in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JUSTIN STEELE ($9100 DK) and ALEX COBB ($8200 DK) today. The Cincinnati Reds, who face Justin Steele, are 25h in batting and have the 4th highest K rate since the Break. As for Cobb, Arizona is 24th in batting in the past 10 days. I also like JOSIAH GRAY ($6500 DK) who is in that value range. Grabbing an arm here would help rostering one of our top end pitchers. The Brewers are just 20th in wOBA and 21st in wRC+ in the past 10 days.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the RANGERS (vs. CHW), the METS (vs. Kansas City), the TIGERS (vs. Pittsburgh), the DODGERS (vs. Oakland), and the BLUE JAYS (vs. Baltimore).
CORE BATTERS
GEORGE SPRINGER ($5200 DK)
It has been a disappointing season for George Springer as he’s batting just 0.249. It feels like a similar situation here in Philadelphia with Trea Turner. But with that said, after a night off he gets to face a familiar face that he’s had good success against in Kyle Bradish. For his career he is 7 for 14 with 5 extra base hits. And considering his poor recent play, he could have low ownership as well.
For stacking, I like VLAD GUERRERO, WHIT MERRIFIELD, MATT CHAPMAN and ALEJANDRO KIRK.
MARCUS SEMIEN ($6000 DK)
The Rangers will be a popular stack tonight and rightfully so as they go up against a depleted Chicago White Sox pitching staff. The Sox have traded away multiple arms, including Lucas Giolito, which forced them into starting Jesse Scholtens tonight against one of MLB’s best offenses. As for Semien, he has 10 hits in his last 9 games including 2 home runs.
For stacking, I like NATHANIEL LOWE, JOSH JUNG, ADOLIS GARCIA, MITCH GARVER, and LEODIS TAVARES.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
GABRIEL ARIAS ($2400 DK)
The Guardians were quick to trade out SS Amed Rosario to the Dodgers mainly because of their confidence in youngster Gabriel Arias. All Arias has done to reward the Guardians is go 8 for 18 and average 8 DK points in his last 5 games. While the Guardians have a tough matchup going against Framber Valdez and aren’t recommended for a stack, Arias could be a nice one-off play for DFS lineups.
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