Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Sunday here at WinDaily and it’s time for another edition of The Sweet Spot. It’s going to be a full day of sports but we can’t forget our focus on MLB DFS. We’ve been on target with a lot of plays recently and it’s been paying off in both cash and GPP’s (we highly recommended Jose Berios in Tuesday’s article). The key has been nailing the pitching and today will test us again (today’s slate doesn’t feature any aces). And keep an eye out for weather all around the east coast as there is a front across the Atlantic that is pouring rain from DC up through Boston (Mets vs Braves game has already been postponed).
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 9 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 9 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
DREW RASMUSSEN ($10,600 DK)
The Rays RHP has been all or nothing through 5 starts. In his 3 positive games, he’s 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 22 K’s in 18 innings. Those games were against bottom feeders in offensive categories in the Nationals, Reds and A’s. In his 2 negative games, 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA. Those two games were against great offenses in the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays.
The good news for DFS owners today is that he’s facing a bad offense in the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox are batting 0.192 over the past two weeks and are last in wOBA. And Chicago is also on a 10 game losing streak with some internal issues that are bubbling up (Luis Robert was benched for not running out a batted ball yesterday). So feel good that Rasmussen is in a spot, and against an opponent, where he’s primed to dominate.
MARTIN PEREZ ($8700 DK)
Perez got to see firsthand his teammate, Nathan Eovaldi, dominate the Yankees yesterday to the tune of a complete game shutout. In fact, if you throw out DeGrom’s injury shortened start, starting pitcher’s have thrown 7 QS’s in the last 8 games against the Yankees. Add to that, the Bronx Bombers have scored 4 runs or less in 8 of the last 9 games. In that span they are 27th in batting, 29th in OPS, and 30th in wOBA.
Perez is not my favorite arm as his advanced numbers predict some form of regression coming to his 2.60 ERA. But based on matchup, and his affinity for pitching at home (1.59 ERA).
CHRIS BASSITT ($8400 DK)
Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has been solid of late throwing four straight quality starts. In those starts, he’s also racked up 21 K’s. Add in today’s opponent, the Seattle Mariners, and you have a recipe for success. That’s because the Mariners have been striking out at a 34.5% clip over the past 10 days and struck out 19 times yesterday against Toronto. Seattle has been shutout twice over the past 3 games and have just 2 runs scored over that span. I feel good rostering Bassitt today based on his consistency and matchup. Plus there are no weather concerns in Toronto!
JOHAN OVIEDO ($8200 DK)
We round out our pitching rotation with Johan Oviedo. The Pirates righty has a respectable 3.03 ERA over his first 5 starts. Like Rasmussen, three of those have been stellar as he’s averaged 27 DK points in those starts. And like Rasmussen, who did face this same team, he has a favorable matchup against the Washington Nationals. The Nats are last in ISO, 27th in wRC+ and 26th in wOBA this season. As of now, the rain has slowed to a drizzle in our Nations capital so it looks like they will get this one in.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JOSIAH GRAY ($6200 DK)
The pitching is tough today. But there’s going to be a value pitcher that pops and we’re betting it’s Josiah Gray against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gray has a 2.93 ERA with 25 K’s in 27.2 innings. He had his best game of the year in his last start racking up 32.5 DK points versus the New York Mets. While the Pirates are ranked in the top 5 in several important categories, they are coming off a double header against the Nats where they scored 16 in the night-cap. They’ve scored 13 or more in 3 games and each time in the following game they scored 5 or less.
BONUS PICKS
I do like SONY GRAY ($10,400 DK) to an extent today against the Royals. Gray has been awesome this year posting a 0.62 ERA over 5 starts. However, Gray has been imbalanced with two starts over 32 DK points and 3 starts with an average of 17.5 DK points. We can’t pay over $10K for 17 points but we could for 32 points. The ERA won’t be this low forever but I will take a chance that he has one of those stellar games today and look for regression in a future start. After all, it is the Royals who are 30th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the Milwaukee Brewers (vs Suarez), the Boston Red Sox (vs. Allen), the Los Angeles Angels (vs. Rea) and the Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Clevinger). The double stack in Milwaukee could pay dividends as we have two pitchers with ERA’s over 5.00 and SIERA’s over 5.50. Also, they both have a K rate of ~14% which is extremely low meaning we should see plenty of balls in play. I can see a top stack in LA and a middle to bottom stack in MIL to balance out a top of line pitcher and mid $8K arm.
CORE BATTERS
JORGE POLANCO ($4500 DK)
On the WinDaily Sirius Fantasy Show this morning, I talked about the potential of using a Twins stack today against Brady Singer. I think they will be in play in some of my lineups and if so it will be focused around Jorge Polanco. The Twins 2B is batting 0.371 this year and is 7 for 21 with 2 home runs in his career off Singer. You should also consider Byron Buxton who is 5 for 11 in his career off Singer.
RANDY AROZARENA ($5900 DK)
Arozarena is coming off a multi home run game yesterday against the White Sox. In fact he has 10 hits over his last 9 games and he’s always a threat to steal a base. Additionally, he is facing a heavy fly ball pitcher in Mike Clevinger which should open his eyes and add the potential for a long ball.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
JAREN DURAN ($3100 DK)
I’m cheating a little here taking Duran at $3100 but face it, he’s the best value on the market today. He has 9 hits in his last 4 games and is batting 0.409 on the season. And yet he’s still around the minimum value. Roster him with confidence today even in a lefty vs lefty matchup.
MATT VIERLING ($2500 DK)
The Tigers OF is hitting a respectable 0.286 this season. And he has 10 hits in his last 7 games averaging 8.5 DK points over that span. Today he gets Kyle Bradish who owns a 6.30 ERA. For value, the Tigers have some good bats including Mr. Vierling.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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