Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Touch ‘Em All Tuesday at WinDaily. We’ve been hot with our pitching and stacks and look to continue that on a full day of baseball. The weather from Sunday and Monday seems to have cleared out and we shouldn’t have any concerns with rain outs today. But the front that passed did leave some colder weather up north which could also factor into our decisions today. Tony and I did put out our early leans last night on YouTube and you can check it out by clicking the video below.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 10 games and any earlier games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
SPENCER STRIDER ($10,400 DK)
We have to start at the top with Spencer Strider. He’s coming off a brilliant rookie campaign in 2022 and proving to everyone that was not a fluke. He already has 27 K’s in 3 outings and has posted a 1-0 record (Braves have won all 3 of his starts). He has a 3.38 ERA in those starts but his FIP is a full run lower (2.26) and his SIERA is below 3.00 (2.95). Both numbers are indicative of future success so we foresee an even better Strider, based on his current rate, going forward.
And that will start with today against a San Diego team that is flat out struggling at the plate. The Padres are 27th in batting average, 21st in wRC+ and 20th in wOBA. More importantly they are 27th against fastballs this year and we all know what Strider likes to throw. Play the mustached wonder with confidence tonight in his matchup with the Padres.
JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($9500 DK)
The Cardinals LHP continues to dazzle in St Louis. His reincarnation as a pitcher must frustrate the biggest of Yankee fans. And this season he’s even better as he’s upped his K/9 inning by 1 and lowered his ERA by a full run. And he has the highest WAR on the slate today.
Today he gets the Diamondbacks who struggle against LHPs. Arizona is 21st in ISO and 22nd in wRC+ vs lefties.
MARCUS STROMAN ($8900 DK)
Stroman’s stats to start the year are fantastic. He’s 5th in the league in ERA and 15th in WHIP. At Baseball Prospectus, he has the 2nd least Deserved Runs Against (DRA) per 9 innings. And his SIERA is the 6th lowest on the slate today. Add all that up and stir it in with the Oakland A’s and you know have a 5 star dish waiting to be served. The A’s are 3-14 and have been outscored by 72 runs so far this year. Add to that a 24% K rate and a 0.235 batting average and we have a matchup that should be at the top of your list for today.
CHRIS SALE ($7500 DK)
I’m taking a small leap of faith in playing Sale tonight as his performances to date have been underwhelming to say the least. The Boston LHP has allowed 18 hits and 16 runs in just 12 innings. But he also has a FIP that is almost 4 runs less than his ERA. And his SIERA is almost 8 runs less. Most of that is because is BABIP is a staggering 0.406 (league average is near 0.290).
And tonight he gets the Twins who are 5th in K rate, 23rd in wOBA and 24th in wRC+ against southpaws. The stars just seem to align tonight for Sale to perform well and produce at a salary point reserved for #4’s and #5’s.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JOSE SUAREZ ($6900 DK)
Ok hear me out here. Suarez has got rocked in his first two starts and hasn’t made it out of the 5th inning yet. He’s also surrendered 18 hits in 8.1 innings of work. But his 10+ ERA is met 5.36 FIP based on his 0.444 BABIP.
And he gets the Yankees tonight who aren’t bombing the ball against LHPs. They are 29th in batting average, 26th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+ against lefties. Add to that the recent loss of Stanton and we have a potentially nice matchup for a value SP that will be severely under owned.
BONUS PICKS
I do like LOGAN GILBERT ($8500 DK) today against the Brewers. It’s feast or famine for the Brewers bats so far this year. They’ve had 8 games of 6 runs or more but also been shut out 3 times. Seattle is still a good pitching park and Gilbert can use that to contain the Brewers power tonight.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the Baltimore Orioles (vs Gray), the Colorado Rockies (vs. Velasquez), the Los Angeles Angels (vs. Schmidt) and the Boston Red Sox (vs. Gray). Fading bad pitching but also taking a shot on Sonny Gray to regress back to form. His SIERA and xFIP are both over 4.00 while his ERA sits at 0.53. And Boston averages 6 runs per game at home.
CORE BATTERS
BRIAN REYNOLDS ($5800 DK)
Reynolds has cooled off slightly. But today he gets to face Jose Urena who he is 2 for 4 in his career off of.
PATRICK WISDOM ($4500 DK)
Wisdom is on fire of late. The Cubs OF has hit 6 home runs and has a 60% hard hit rate in the past 10 days. He’ll keep that going tonight against the worst starting pitching on the league in Oakland.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
MARK MATHAIS ($2300 DK)
Tony and I gave out several FFVP’s this on the WinDaily Pre Lock Show. And I’m sticking with one of mine for this article. Mark Mathais of the Pirates had a huge game last night in Coors going 4 for 5. Tonight he gets the lowest salaried pitcher on the slate with Jose Urena. It’s also the highest total on the board.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
