Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to another Sunday Funday of MLB and WinDaily Sports. We’ve had a few takedowns this week which goes to show the information sharing across our platform is producing. We have a big slate today, with 10 games on the Classic Slate. So let’s get after it and keep the ball flying and the catcher mitt popping.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:10 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 10 games and any earlier games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:10 PM Start
GERRIT COLE ($10,900 DK)
We have to start at the top with Gerrit Cole and his 3-0 record with a 1.40 ERA. He’s averaged 6.1 innings and 98 pitches in those outings which is a good sign for an ace on the slate. The other piece of good news is that he is facing the Twins who are 4th in the MLB in K rate and only 26th in wOBA. More importantly, they are 1st in K rate over the past week showing high potential for Cole to rack up the strikeouts today. Play him with confidence.
SHANE MCLANAHAN ($9900 DK)
The Rays have finally hit some adversity by losing their first two games of the season to the Toronto Blue Jays. Today, they are trying to avoid the sweep and send their ace out to the mound in Shane McClanahan. Last year, McClanahan endured a dead arm syndrome late in the season which made him ineffective in September and October. But obviously, he took care of himself in the offseason and he looks as much the pitcher he was for 5 months of 2022. In 2023, he’s 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and is averaging close to 25 DK points per game.
The Blue Jays changed the back end of their order over the offseason but their core players are still in tack from years past. So that allows us to look at past years data with confidence. If we throw out the start from last September, McClanahan has a 2.53 ERA vs the Blue Jays in his career. He’s also striking out more than 1 batter per inning against Toronto. This is a good spot for the hard throwing LHP even though Toronto hits lefties well (0.286 BA vs LHP in 2023).
ZAC GALLEN ($8000 DK)
Now we dive into the salary range that is most attractive today and that starts with Zac Gallen. I played him in his last outing against Milwaukee and it’s safe to say the Dbacks ace is back after that outing. Gallen went 7 innings and allowed just 3 hits with 0 ER’s while striking out 11.
Today he faces the Marlins who are 8th in K rate, 22nd in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+. And while the Marlins have won the first two games in this series, they’ve not hit well at home managing just 23 runs in 9 games (2.5 per game). I look for a very low scoring affair in Florida today with Gallen needing to keep up with Alcantara on the other side. Look for him to do so and put up a 2nd strong outing in a row.
LOGAN WEBB ($7400 DK)
The Giants ace is off to an 0-3 start with a 4.77 ERA. That doesn’t look like numbers that would award you with a 5 year $90 million contract. But that’s exactly what the Giants did this week as they have faith their RHP will turn it around and be a building block for years to come. And I have that faith too, but in a shorter time span.
Webb has been bit by the unlucky bug to start the season. His xFIP (2.54) and SIERA (2.82) both show that he’s headed towards better days. And that should start today with the team ranked dead last in batting average, and wOBA and near last in every other important statistical category. Even better, the Tigers are 2nd in K rate as they strike out over 26% of all at-bats. I’m playing Webb with confidence today as he looks to return dividends on his newly signed contract.
KYLE WRIGHT ($7200 DK)
Remember last week when we pointed out the mis-pricing of Kyle Wright? if not, let me refresh your memory as he was priced at $9300 while he was on a pitch count because it was his first start of the year. And he put up an egg, with a -1.3 DK point outing.
But today, we get some relief as his salary has dropped $2100 and I believe he is now wrongly priced again. However, it’s now to our advantage. If there is one team that battles Detroit for the worst offense, it is the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are tied with the Tigers for least runs scored, 50, but have done it in one more game. And they carry the tag of the team with the worst wRC+ and have the 3rd highest K rate.
Also, Wright did get 75 pitches in his last outing. So if he can be effective with his pitches today, we could easily see a quality start in his future. I’m rolling out the 2022 NL wins leader with confidence today and his low salary will help us build solid stacks.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ ($6700 DK)
Miles Mikolas stunk it up on Tuesday so we’re now 2 for 3 in our value pitchers on the season. But I feel very good about today’s value arm and have confidence we’ll be back on the positive point production with Grayson Rodriguez from the Baltimore Orioles.
Rodriguez has had a tough start to the year after getting called up in the 2nd week of action. But we see it often with young pitchers and the good ones normally rebound quickly. For example, Hunter Brown from Houston had a tough start and has excelled in his past two outings. All it takes is some small tweak or one good thing to go your way, and then you believe you belong. That’s what I’m projecting today with Rodriguez against the White Sox. He had 99 pitches last game so there’s no fear of a pitch count restriction. And outside of yesterday, the White Sox had just 11 runs in their previous 5 games. I believe today is a good matchup but also his past two starts are good building blocks on what could be a very productive outing today.
BONUS PICKS
I do like AARON NOLA ($8400 DK) today against the Reds. Nola has shown signs of breaking out but keeps running into that one bad inning. There are some weather concerns in Cincinatti so keep an eye out for that before rostering any Phillies or Reds.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:10 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the Cleveland Guardians (vs Patrick Corbin), the Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Luis Cessa), the Los Angeles Angels (vs. Garret Whitlock) and the Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Alek Manoah). The Cleveland stack is self explanatory. As long as Washington continues to trot out Patrick Corbin, I will continue to stack bats against him. Look for players like Kwan, Rosario, Jose Ramirez and Josh Bell to be popular and in a good spot in the lineup.
For the Phillies, I’m looking more towards the middle of the order and bats like Realmuto, Castellanos, Bohm, and Stott. Turner is always in play but may be tough to get in a true stack and I’ll use him more as a one off in certain lineups. For the Angels, look at any part of the lineup as they have 20 hits over the first two games of the Boston series.
Lastly, the off the radar stack for today is the Tampa Bay Rays. Jays SP Alek Manoah has struggled with control as he’s walked 11 batters in three games this year. And while Tampa doesn’t walk at a high rate (8.8%) they don’t strike out much either as they are the 6th hardest team to K in the MLB. Look for the middle of the order to be a good stack today with Lowe, Ramirez, Franco, Raley, and Walls.
CORE BATTERS
BRIAN REYNOLDS ($5900 DK)
Reynolds has cooled off slightly. But today he gets to face Miles Mikolas who has allowed an alarming number of hits on the season. The Cardinals RHP has allowed 10 hits, 9 hits, and 10 hits in his three outings. And Reynolds has 9 career hits and a 0.321 batting average off Mikolas.
RONALD ACUNA ($6500 DK) & SEAN MURPHY ($4300 DK)
Acuna and Murphy are both hot. Acuna is hitting 0.429 over the past week with the 2nd most hits in the MLB in that span (10). Murphy on the other hand has a 0.391 average of the past week with 3 home runs and a 1.577 OPS. He is also 3rd in hard hit percentage at 62%. Look for both to continue their “hot” streaks today versus soft tossing Zack Greinke.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
ZACH NETO ($2000 DK)
Tony and I gave out several FFVP’s this AM on the WinDaily Sirius Show. Those should be posted in Discord by now. So I’ll give you one that is different from those plays and that’s Zach Neto from the Los Angeles Angels. Neto is leading off and playing SS today and faces a pitcher in Garret Whitlock who has a 9.00 ERA on the season. At the minimum value, he’s a nice play versus a bad pitcher and leading off for a team with players like Trout and Ohtani hitting directly behind him.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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