Dave Gloeckner 
Tuesday’s are my day to project WinDaily’s best MLB DFS plays. And on this particular Tuesday, we have an absolutely perplexing lineup of pitcher salaries which will make this day one of the most interesting of the season. Tony and I went over some of the names we liked last night in our Early Lineup Locks show on YouTube. But after more research, my leans are below.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card tonight begins at 7:07 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 10 games and any earlier games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:07 PM Start
JACOB DEGROM ($9900 DK)
It doesn’t take an expert to recommend rostering Jacob DeGrom tonight. But here are a few points that make him all the more attractive. First, he is under $10K for the 3rd straight start and it’s likely we won’t see him here again. Take the discount!
Secondly, he is facing KC who struck out 9 consecutive times against Rangers starter Andrew Heaney last night. They are up to 5th in K rate in the MLB. Green light means go!
And lastly, DeGrom racked up 92 pitches in his last outing and posted 35.1 DK points. That’s almost a full load for the Rangers ace. Which gives us confidence in his condition following a shortened spring training.
SHOHEI OHTANI ($9700 DK)
Ohtani has allowed just 1 ER and 5 hits over 12 innings of work so far this season. He also has 18 K’s in those 12 innings putting him at a 13.5 K/9 inning clip. Let’s just say that his time at the WBC has definitely helped springboard him into regular season mode. In fact, he threw 111 pitches in his last outing versus the Mariners which is high for anyone in April. Add to that he gets the Nats tonight, who are just 29th in ISO and 25th in wRC+. So they don’t necessarily strike fear in a pitcher’s eyes. Expect Ohtani to continue his early season brilliance tonight.
DUSTIN MAY ($9200 DK)
A lot of pundits really liked Dustin May coming out of spring training this year. I was one but also had concerns with respect to the Dodgers projected use of May. They seemed to be targeting the Tony Gonsolin workload which was no more than 85 pitches (Gonsolin didn’t throw more than 90 pitches until his 7th start, and highest total was 98 vs SD in August). And while that does look to be the case for May, the Dodgers SP has been much more efficient with his pitches than Gonsolin was allowing him to pile up 13 innings so far on an average pitch count of 83.
The impressive part is that he’s doing it at a low K Rate and a low hard hit rate. And he’s facing a team tonight in SFG that is 1st in K Rate and 16th in hard hit rate. So while the workload is still lighter than what we like to see at the $9K range, his projections look good tonight based on the matchup.
CORBIN BURNES ($8500 DK)
And here lies the dilemma on today’s slate. What do we do with Corbin Burnes who is ranked behind arms like Kyle Wright (0 starts this season and got lit up in rehab start) and Lance Lynn (owner of a 9.00 ERA)? On one hand, this salary is deserved based on Burnes’ first two outings where he allowed a combined 10 ER’s and struck out just 6. But on the other hand, it is Corbin Burnes who won the NL Cy Young just 2 seasons ago. The same pitcher that led the NL in strikeouts in 2022 and posted a 2.93 ERA.
When looking closer at this year’s performances, it’s alarming to see that Burnes has lost ~1.5 mph on all his pitches but particularly the cutter which he throws ~55% of the time. His sinker and slider are also getting bashed around as batters are 4 for 7 with 2 home runs off those offerings. It looks like he needs to get back to using his curveball and changeup more often. And then rekindle the magic with his cutter.
Which brings us to tonight and his match-up with Arizona. On paper this looks to be a bad spot for Burnes as he got roughed up by the Dbacks last year. Add to that, Arizona is 7th in batting average, 13th in ISO and just 25th in K rate. The only good news is that they are last in walk rate at just 4.9%. In the end, I’m out on Burnes tonight just because I need to see him pick up his velo and make more use of his secondary pitches. I’ll likely be against the grain here, and it could “Burnes” me, but I need to see more from the Brewers RHP before putting my money on his name.
ALEK MANOAH ($7700 DK)
Here’s another head-scratcher in my opinion. We have a pitcher who was 4th in the MLB in ERA in 2022 at 2.24 being placed below a pitcher that has 6 career starts and a season ERA of 5.79 in Hayden Wesneski. And Wesneski is facing the Mariners who are a much better offensive team than the one Manoah is facing in the Tigers. The Blue Jays RHP bounced back from a poor start in his opener by posting a 26.2 DK point outing versus the Royals. In that game he went 7 innings and allowed just 1 hit.
And back to that point about the Tigers who are still stuck at the bottom of every hitting category (last in slugging, ISO, wOBA, etc). I’m circling this one as my favorite pitching play on the board today and will gladly pair him with someone at the top of the slate to make a formidable 2-man staff today.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
MILES MIKOLAS ($6600 DK)
Kutter Crawford’s outing on Sunday made us 2 for 2 at The Sweet Spot on value pitchers. This won’t always be the case but it’s good to see we have dialed in two gems so far. Today I’m going with Miles Mikolas in the value spot as he faces the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field. The last part of that previous sentence is the most grueling part. But there are a few key parameters we like.
First, the Rockies are 24th in wRC+ against RHP’s and 29th in DRC+ as an offense against all pitchers. Secondly, Mikolas doesn’t seem to be pitching any differently than his 2022 campaign. His velocity numbers are equivalent to last year’s and he has similar spin rates and pitch usage rates. The biggest difference has been location and opponents. He faced both Toronto and Atlanta who rank in the top 10 in batting average and wOBA. So while this is a tough matchup on paper, it’s much easier than the two lineups he previously faced. Here’s to Mikolas bouncing back and being an under the radar play on DFS cards tonight.
BONUS PICKS
I do like PABLO LOPEZ ($7300 DK) today the White Sox. Chicago has been victimized by injuries early in the season (Anderson, Jimenez, etc) and Lopez has looked good in his first two starts racking up 8 K’s in each outing.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The two most popular stacks will likely be the Toronto Blue Jays (@Detroit) and Atlanta Braves (vs Cincinnati). I’ll be building around one of those, Toronto, and also looking at the Angels (vs Washington), Cubs (vs Seattle) and Rangers (vs Kansas City). There are 5 pitchers on the card with a sub 23% K rate and an above 40% fly ball rate. Those are:
- Josiah Gray
- Jordan Lyles
- Matt Manning
- Chris Flexen
- Alek Manoah
We toss out Manoah based on opponent and there you have 4 pitchers we want to attack tonight from a stacking perspective.
CORE BATTERS
TORONTO STACK – VLADIMIR GUERRERO ($5700 DK), BO BICHETTE ($5600 DK), MATT CHAPMAN ($4800 DK)
It’s a small sample size but Guerrero, Bichette, and Chapman are a career 4 for 8 off Tigers SP Matt Manning. They’re also batting 0.422 on the season with 7 home runs. What better way to continue that success than against a pitcher with a career 4.73 ERA. If you add in Keirmaier ($2500 DK) and spend $17K+ on SP’s, we still have ~$14,000 left for 4 players ($3500/player). So it’s a feasible stack with good pitching.
CHICAGO CUBS STACK – TREY MANCINI ($2900 DK), PATRICK WISDOM ($5000 DK), ERIC HOSMER ($2500 DK)
Looking at Chicago tonight, we have some favorable wind conditions (~13 MPH out to RCF) mixed with a classic fly ball pitcher in Chris Flexen. Wisdom is my favorite of this bunch based on his power and 50% fly ball rate in 2023. Hosmer and Mancini carry value based on their past experience in the AL versus Flexen.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
BUBBA THOMPSON ($2300 DK)
Thompson has started the past 2 games in CF for the Rangers. And in those two contests, he’s put up 30 total DK points with 3 extra base hits. The Texas batters have a lot of potential tonight, but if they keep the hot hitting Thompson in the lineup then he should be one of the most sought after options.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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