The PGA Tour travels to Dublin Ohio to play The Memorial Tournament at Jack’s Track. This week we are looking for the all-around game with a particular emphasis on keeping it in the fairway, strong iron game and the ability to maneuver deftly ARG. When looking at course history keep in mind this course was renovated recently and we only have one year of data (2021) on the new track. More on the renovations during the famous course breakdown with Spencer on Tuesday night’s PGA Draftcast. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.
Collin Morikawa (10400) – I’ve been off Collin due to the issues with the PUTT but this may be a track where he can find his PUTT stroke again. Last year he gained over 5 strokes with the PUTT while also gaining over 12 strokes T2G. If he’s popular I will pivot but if the ownership is reasonable, I’m happy to take the leap of faith. I also like Rahm and Rory up top, but will only consider them if ownership doesn’t get out of hand.
Xander Schauffele (10200) – I’m not the biggest Xander fan, but he’s undoubtedly a metrics monster and he’s coming in with great form and has three Top 15s in a row at The Memorial including an 11th in 2021. If you can’t play Xander here, you’re probably just not going to play Xander. He won’t be in my main build but I’ll have him in some lineups for sure.
Jordan Spieth (9700) – He needs to keep it in the fairway and if he does he’s just as likely to win as any of the guys priced above him. He’s gained ARG in 8 tournaments in a row and has been cruising with the ball striking. May be lower ownership than you think as people tended to play a lot of him over the last two tournaments and may be ready to pivot this week.
Shane Lowry (9000) – Lowry has been keeping it in the fairway and gains across all metrics. T6 here last year and truly has the complete form. He could easily be priced at 9500. I like Zalatoris as a pivot in this range if ownership is high on guys like Lowry or Spieth.
Sungjae Im (8900) – He was pristine T2G last week, but lost a ton with the PUTT. Grades out just fine on this track in spite of very poor history. My guess is the poor course history and the lack of consistent recent history keeps his ownership down, and if that is the case, I’m happy to dive in. If he’s high owned, I’m fine with going to someone else in this range as it is rich with talent.
Cameron Young (8800) – He’s 7th in my model and carries with that metrics of 1st T2G and 1st in Par 4 450-500 yards over the last 24 rounds. Generally keeps it in the fairway. No experience here which I don’t love, but I still see him as a value with great upside.
Daniel Berger (8500) – Berger barely made the cut last week, but the ball striking was on point and he was great ARG. His PUTT let him down but he actually gained 2 of the 4 days. The ball striking is picking up and I’m hopeful that most people pivot to others in this range.
Mito Pereira (8000) – Much like Young, he is lacking in experience, but makes up for it with spectacular ball striking which includes finding fairways. He’s also been above average ARG and can spike with the PUTT. I think Max Homa is also a fine play in this range.
Patrick Reed (7900) – Reed has been his old self over the last couple of tournaments. He has great course history including a 5th at The Memorial last year. Gained across all metrics last week including great performances on APP and ARG.
Aaron Wise (7500) – He had a good showing last year which included gaining in all metrics and almost 7 T2G and 2.5 with the PUTT en route to a T9 finish. He comes in with good form as well and will be a value if the PUTT is decent. I also like Chris Kirk in this range who is likely to be popular and Cameron Tringale as an ownership pivot.
Jhonnatan Vegas (6700) – A high risk play as he hasn’t been hitting fairways and historically has issues ARG, but he has gained in 3 out of 4 tournaments ARG. If he is back to his old ball striking self and can maintain the ARG improvement he will be a great value.
Brendan Steele (6600) – Indeed a likely steal at this price given his impressive course history (37th, 13th, 41st and 57th in his last four at The Memorial) and he’s coming in with great form as evidenced by his Top 10 at The PGA Championship. The short game can be tricky for Brendan but he has the ability to gain there and the BS has been very good since March.
Lucas Glover (6500) – He lost 6 strokes with the PUTT last week which should surprise no one. There are times where he’s only a small loser PUTT and his T2G overall is pretty great. I’m willing to gamble on some poor PUTT this week. Glover has made 5 cuts in a row at The Memorial.
Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 54-22.
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