The Masters: Initial Picks

Hello Friends and Welcome to the Masters: Initial Picks.  The entire Win Daily PGA Team will have plenty of the usual content coming so stay tuned for that and stay tuned to Discord and the Win Daily Podcasts and Livestreams.  Content related to course dynamics will come out later in the week (i.e. – The Insight Sheet), but I can tell you that I’m looking for ball strikers (OTT and APP) with a greater emphasis than usual OTT.  Having the all-around game is certainly a bonus.  One additional thing to keep in mind is that there are only 89 golfers in this field so ownership percentages will look a little higher than normal.  More on that on our PGA show and in the Win Daily Sports Ownership Breakdown.  Now let’s get to The Masters picks.

Dustin Johnson (11500) – The best in the world has been a little off lately, but he’s had a couple weeks to gather himself and even if the entire game isn’t pristine, he should do well.  Pricing is soft as expected so there’s no issue with paying the heavy price and making a lineup you are comfortable with.   Since 2015, DJ has finished 6^th, 4^th, 10^th, 2^nd and 1^st at the Masters.  No, that’s not a typo.

Bryson DeChambeau (10800) – Certainly a great course fit and the recent play checks out with a 3^rd at the Players and a 1^st at the API (match play struggles don’t worry me at all).  Bryson’s finishes in previous Masters appearances are not great, but then again, most of those efforts he was literally a different player/species.  I’m happy to take the upside at the heavy price.

Xander Schauffele (10000) – It’s early but I get the sense Xander is going to carry a slight ownership discount relative to big names right next to him like Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas.  The truth is that Xander has been very mediocre as of late, but we know he has the all-around game to compete with the best, as he illustrated in 2019 with a 2^nd place finish. 

Patrick Cantlay (9800) – When you actually watch Cantlay play, nothing jumps off the screen relative to the Bryson’s and DJ’s of the world, but don’t be fooled as he is truly great in every area (OTT, APP, ARG and PUTT).  A very fair price here.

Collin Morikawa (9600) – In 2020, Morikawa finished tied for 46^th in his Masters debut.  Now that he’s got some Masters experience under his belt, I’ll go ahead and lean on the ball striking and hope for a decent putting performance.  Collin rates out as the best in the ball striker department (OTT and APP combined) since the beginning of this calendar year.

Viktor Hovland (8700) – Didn’t play in 2020, but did finish 32^nd in his debut in 2019.  Hovland’s ball striking is elite and his short game is coming along.  If he were coming in with better recent form (3 below average tournaments in a row) then he’d be in the mid-9k range.  I’m willing to take a chance on him in spite of the bad recent stretch. 

Sungjae Im (8600) – Sungjae has been very consistent and has the game to succeed here, as evidenced by his 2^nd place finish in his debut in 2020.  His game translates to this course and his price gives you an easy and relatively safe mid-tier option to roster.

Sergio Garcia (7900) – Sergio has missed his last two cuts at The Masters, but he did win in 2017.  He’s great OTT and great on APP and fits into my BS mold (Top 10 this Calendar year), but perhaps more importantly, his putting has picked up lately and I see no reason why he can’t contend here on Sunday.

Abraham Ancer (7400) – Granted, the 2020 track at the Masters is going to play differently than what we will have in 2021 (October versus April), but Ancer should come in with plenty of confidence as he finished T13 in 2020 in spite of a horrific 76 on Sunday.  I like Ancer’s all-around game and expect him to outscore his price.

Joaquin Niemann (7400) – Plenty of upside with Neimann as he has been striking the ball very well in 2021.  Those performances have translated into Top 30 finishes over his last 4 tournaments, which is good, but frankly I think he’s on the cusp of turning those Top 30’s into Top 15’s.  Niemann has one appearance at The Masters which resulted in an MC in 2018.

Victor Perez (7000) – Very risky play who certainly won’t be in my core lineups, but his last two PGA Tour events he’s been very good with the ball striking and I’m hoping he may have found something to give your lineups big time ownership leverage as potential pivots from guys like Corey Conners.

Corey Conners (6900) – A great ball striker who is likely to be chalky so be prepared to pivot if needed.  Conners is a touch underpriced here so I see value, particularly in cash game lineups.  As for GPP’s, we will have plenty of pivots as the week progresses so stay tuned for those options as the content comes pouring out.

Si Woo Kim (6700) – Your ultimate hit or miss golfer who has had plenty of missed cuts in his recent play.  With that said, he’s had some good showings as well with a 9^th at the Players and some solid play at the Valero Texas Open.  Add to that he’s got 3 Top 35’s his last 3 years at the Masters and you’ve got some upside here.

Ryan Palmer (6500) – Hasn’t played here in a long while but he does have plenty of experience at The Masters (his last appearance was a 33^rd place finish in 2015).  His ball striking game is too good to be this low in the pricing and he’s great value here.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in The Win Daily Sports PGA Discord.

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