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The Masters: Initial Picks
The moment many of us have been waiting for is upon us. We have finally arrived at Augusta and the Win Daily team will be blitzing you with content over the next 24 hours. Join us tonight for the PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST and stay tuned for more articles from the Win Daily PGA crew. And of course, join us in Discord as the conversation is likely to move at a rapid pace over the next couple of days. As for the strokes gained metrics that I will be emphasizing, they go as follows: APP, OTT, PUTT, ARG. Most people have those first two metrics swapped, but I’m a sucker for a good APP game so there you have it (I have them ranked pretty much even). I will also be putting a premium on Masters experience/course history. So here are my Masters: Initial Picks.
Jon Rahm (10500) – Last time we saw Rahm he was finishing 2nd at the Zozo, but more importantly he’s been Top 10 at the Masters the last two times he played (9th and 4th). It is very difficult to distinguish the Top 5 in this field because they all grade out well, but I’m rolling with Rahm and DJ.
Dustin Johnson (10000) – He has been amazing on APP and he’s in great form. Not sure what else you need in terms of being convinced, but he’s got three TOP 10’s in his last three efforts at Augusta (2nd, 10th, 4th). Seems like a very reasonable price as well. Fire him up.
Xander Schauffele (9800) – Another guy with great form and good course history, albeit limited (2nd and 50th in his only two times at Augusta). Xander isn’t dominant OTT but his T2G game is fantastic and he can get hot with the putter more often than most. He also hasn’t missed a cut in his last nine majors.
Patrick Reed (9200) – Speaking of guys who can get hot with the putter, Reed has been automatic with the short stick over the last few tournaments. As for the complete game, he has everything you need to win at Augusta and the proof of that comes by way of the green jacket hanging in his closet. Reed shows up at majors and he should be dialed in this week.
Jason Day (8400) – This guy can get hot or cold any given week, but he’s been relatively hot at the Masters over the last few years (5th, 20th, 22nd, 10th in his last four and made 9 of 10 cuts). The form was great last week in Houston with a 7th place finish. I won’t be overweight on Day, but I’ll have a few shares.
Louis Oosthuizen (7900) – Not a long hitter but plays great in big spots and has a pretty good track record here. His upside seems to be limited given he doesn’t grade out super well in any SG metrics relative to others in the field, but again, plays well in the big ones, as recently illustrated by his 3rd place finish at The U.S. Open in 2020.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (7600) – Good recent form and good track record at Augusta. A guy that can also play well if the elements come into play. Fitzpatrick has been good OTT and APP over the last four tournaments (he did have a missed cut at the U.S. Open but that was a tournament where he was uncharacteristically bad with the putter).
Kevin Kisner (7100) – A Steven Polardi special and a guy who has never missed the cut at the Masters. I’m going with pedigree on this one as he isn’t necessarily a great course fit and he hasn’t been great OTT as of late, but my Masters experience bias is certainly in play here. Get more on Kisner in our Discord chat from Steven.
Ian Poulter (7000) – Missed the cut at the last major (U.S. Open), but coming off a 12th at the CJ Cup and a 12th place finish at the Masters last year. Poulter classically shows up for these events and I like the upside at this price.
Corey Conners (6600) – Has made four cuts in a row and made the cut last year in his inaugural shot at the Masters. Conners comes in with good form and checks the box with at least some course experience. He’s also been good lately OTT and on APP.
Justin Harding (6300) – Not much recent good form to go off of here, but if you’re looking for a big punt play, you may as well take a guy who finished tied for 12th last year.
Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – We struck with Austin Cook last week. Join us in Discord tomorrow for this week’s Secret Weapon.
See you on the Livestream tonight and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Sports podcast and YouTube page. Thank you for enjoying my Masters: Initial Picks, stay tuned for my Masters Best Bets article which will be out on Win Daily Sports Wednesday!
