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As Joel Schrek (and LL Cool J) like to say, we are going back to Cali for the Genesis Invitational. This week 119 players will be teeing it up in an absolutely loaded field. Please make sure you catch our live show (“The PGA DraftCast”) from Tuesday night for a complete model breakdown and our favorite Draftkings picks. I’m personally looking for the complete golfer this week and that will require good ball striking and a good short game. Much like last week, I’ll be placing extra emphasis on course history. Now let’s get to the Genesis Initial Picks.
Patrick Cantlay (11000) – Truly a toss up between Cantlay and Rahm but if I was forced to pick, I’d go with Cantlay as he is in good form and seems to love the Cali swing. The APP game hasn’t been elite but it’s been good enough and he definitely has plenty of short game prowess.
Rory McIlroy (9700) – The APP game was off late last year and therefore his metrics are down a bit in your model, but I love what he did overseas over the last month and I think he has the expertise and course history to navigate this course and potentially take this tournament down.
Cam Smith (9100) – If you’re looking for a technician, look no further than Cam Smith who also has the complete game to compete in this talent-laden field. Cam’s OTT game hasn’t been great but he checks every other box including great course history.
Jordan Spieth (8900) – Good course history and a good setup for him as even if he’s wayward off the tee, he should have the requisite creativity, APP and short game to be ok out here. I like the form he’s in and think that he has upside at this price.
Max Homa (8300) – Certainly won’t rate out well in your modeling, but he’s starting to come on strong and he appears to absolutely love the Genesis with a 1st and a 5th over his last two efforts. Add to that he’s coming in with good form and you’ve got some upside here.
Adam Scott (8200) – Recent history suggests his game is emerging and I love his course history at The Genesis. Plenty of upside with the ball striking and the PUTT and if he can be average with ARG he can easily pay off his price tag.
Talor Gooch (8000) – Doesn’t rate out very well OTT, but is very good in every other category including APP and ARG and the long proximities we will be looking for on the long Par 4s. He also checks the great course history box and looks to be a great value. I’ll note that I also like Matt Fitzpatrick in this range at 8100.
Luke List (7400) – Coming off an underwhelming 53rd at the WMPO, but remains in elite form outside of a PUTT that is prone to being a problem. With that said, his game sets up very well here as he has both the short and long game at his disposal and has good course history.
Cameron Tringale (7300) – it feels like a good bounce back spot and price for Tringale here. I’ll admit he doesn’t rate out as well as I would have thought, but I still think he has the complete game to survive and advance to the weekend at likely low ownership. Speaking of a bounce back spot, I will also be playing some shares of Seamus Power in this range at 7500.
Lanto Griffin (7200) – My main issue with Lanto on this course should be his ARG game, but he appears to have turned that part of his game around. If that trend continues then he’s a great value as he has the APP and PUTT game to make some noise at this price.
Matt Kuchar (6800) – Put simply, the ball striking has just been way off with Kuchar. However, if there were a tournament for him to tactically play his way past the cut line, it would likely be the Genesis where he can plot out each shot and lean on a solid short game. The upside is capped here, but I think this is the venue where the Kuchar of old could emerge.
Doug Ghim (6500) – He’s been making a lot of cuts lately and we know that he’s classically a great ball striker. He’s only played the Genesis once and had an MC, but if vintage Ghim is back, he’s a value at this price. The PUTT can get him in trouble for sure, but I’ll play the upside.
Aaron Rai (6400) – no course experience at The Genesis, but he’s been pretty great lately making 7 out of his last 8 cuts. Truth is, he’s not doing much at an elite level, but the ability to make this many cuts has my attention. There are plenty of others in this range I like including Brendan Grace and J.T. Poston.
Secret Weapon – 48-16. See you in Discord.
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