Kyle Carbone 
How Do You Build an NFL System?
I am asked frequently how to create a winning betting system and how did I create over 3,000 betting systems spanning all major sports. Not to sound short, but the answer is one at a time. So, without further ado, here is the creation of a 70.6% ATS NFL betting system and learn how the parameters work together to produce these strong results spanning 30 seasons.
This Team was a Huge Disappointment Last Season
I am going to take a team that had a miserable divisionalrecord from the previous season where the team won just two of their six divisionalgames. Starting with a team that won just two of their six divisional gamesfrom the previous season and now facing a divisional foe in the current seasonproduces an unimpressive 956-905-54 against-the-spread (ATS) and a slightlybetter 973-903-39 ‘UNDER’ record since 1990. The goal is identify a team comingoff a horribly disappointing season that becomes significantly discounted bythe negative sentiment of the betting public.
Here is where the drilling starts. If I add that the team iscoming off a road win and is playing on the road now, their record soars to asolid 66-46-1 ATS record for 59% winning bets and the ‘UNDER’ bet improves to60-50-3 for 55% winning totals bets. Hold on, let’s not just get satisfied withthis result and look to improve on this advance.
Does the Surface Make Any Difference?
The NFL games are played on grass or artificial turfsurfaces, so lets take a look to see if that makes any difference in ourresults. When the surface parameter is applied the results jump off the page.Teams with the conditions that have already been mentioned above are playing ongrass their record is 31-22 ATS for 59% winning bets and when playing onartificial turf the record has been 35-24-1 ATS for 59.3% ATS record. Where themagic happens is on the total where the ‘UNDER’ improves to 36-22-2 for 62%winning bets in games played on grass as compared to 24-28-1 ‘UNDER’ in gamesplayed on the faster artificial turf surfaces. This makes sense that more ‘UNDERS’would occur on grass.
The system now conditional on two fronts. First, the system withther conditions set forth is to bet on the team regardless of the surface andif the game is being played on grass to also bet the ‘UNDER’.
A Discounted Team is Identified
With our team dressed more like a pig in the eyes of thepublic bettor, we do not want a dog of more than four points and prefer ourteam dressed as a favorite coming off the impressive road win from the previousweek. For instance, a slight dog that is not considered a good team is a trapbet made constantly by the betting public. Moreover, it is assumed incorrectlythat there is just no way this ‘poor’ team could possibly win back-to-back roadgames.
The Team Can Only Be a Modest Dog
Our team when installed as no more than a four-point dog orfavored in the game improves to 39-23-1 ATS for 63% winning bets and 35-26-2 ‘UNDER’regardless of the surface. When the game is played on grass we get close to theHoly Grail with a 24-10-1 ATS record for 70.6% winning bets and the ‘UNDER’earns a 21-13-1 record for 63% winning bets.
Check out the impressive teaser records in the spreadsheetabove where the +6-point teaser sees the side win at 77% and the ‘UNDER’ at 80%offering another betting opportunity.
After Further Review
In summary, developing a betting system involves a bit of creativity and a complete understanding of what parameters work together well for that specific sport. In addition, you can develop the system so that the subsequent drill downs from the basic premise (that our team will be discounted) allows you to grade the bet and increase the bet size accordingly.
I hope you enjoyed this article about the creation of a 70.6% ATS NFL betting system and be sure to check out all of the other fantastic Win Daily Sports articles too. I can be found on Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 and I welcome further discussion from you. Please join me on the Free Discord Chat to get things started. See you soon.
