DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Before getting into our betting tips for the Valero Texas Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of TPC San Antonio, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Valero Texas Open golf betting tips below.
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Valero Texas Open Honourable Mentions
As always, we like to save a section of this article for our fallen comrades who didn’t quite make the Valero Texas Open betting card.
I thought long and hard about adding Jordan Spieth this week. His course record at the Valero Texas Open speaks for itself, and he is priced at reasonable odds in betting markets. That largely comes from some indifferent iron play in his last two tournament starts, where he lost on approach in both. This was enough to see him excluded narrowly.
From the middle of the betting board, Schenk looks to have the game for the Valero Texas Open. He ticks the key approach metrics of both under 100 yards and over 200 yards for the last 12 months, as noted in our course preview. That is evident in his 7th placed finish here in 2019. He also ticks the course comps with 17th and 23rd at TPC Scottsdale recently and a 3rd, 12th, 18th, and 20th at TPC Summerlin. However, it has been an indifferent start to the year for him. He has gained on approach in just 3 of 10 starts this year. I’d like see a return to form with his ball-striking and some consistency before we go there again.
Justin Lower looks to be coming back into some ball-striking form and was 28th last week when recovering from a poor first round. The weighting on SG: ATG was a negative correlation for him here. Finally, the approach numbers from Alexander Bjork always make him a darling in my model. He is also strongest from under 100 yards and over 200+ yards, which is perfect for here. Losing on approach for 3/4 most recent starts, including being -5.28 for SG: APP in two rounds last week, was the concern.
Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips
Updated Tuesday 10PM ET with best odds
Suggested Staking
Brian Harman – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +3000 (Various with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Harris English
2u E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2u E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Lucas Glover
0.75u E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +350
Andrew Putnam
1u E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +333
Brendon Todd
0.5u E/W +10000 (BetVictor with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +375
And
2u Top 40 +170
Nate Lashley – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +600
And
2.5u Top 40 +210
Valero Texas Open Betting Player Profiles
It is an intriguing betting board for the Valero Texas Open. Notably, having Scheffler missing in the market makes for a different construction of where the weighting and value may lie. As noted in my preview article, I quietly hope Rory McIlroy plays poorly this week. I suspect even he wouldn’t want the attention that were to come at The Masters should he win this week.
Aberg looks an obvious threat. I actually bet him at this event as an amateur priced at 300/1. However, the paltry betting odds are sufficient to bypass him for the Texas Open as well as Matsuyama. I will have exposure to both in DFS markets.
Brian Harman – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
I instead arrived back at Brian Harman. He produced for us at The Players Championship, when tipped at 80/1 and finishing runner-up. He led the field in SG: APP for the tournament. Losing such a big event to Scottie Scheffler by a single stroke to force a play-off would’ve stung. I surmised it could take a bit to recover from, so was unsurprised and can forgive the subsequent missed cut at the Valspar.
Harman ticks a lot of the boxes this week and looks value having drifted from opening odds. Over the last 12 months in this field he ranks 10th for SG: ATG, 5th for SG: Putt, and 23rd for driving accuracy to be 9th for SG: Total. That comes despite often giving up some significant length OTT, which is less of a- worry here.
His first three starts here were a 18-22-16 run. Comp form is also solid. He has a 2nd at the Greg Norman designed El Cameleon, 15th at TPC Summerlin, and 14th at TPC Scottsdale in 2022. Further, he carries that to the strongest correlated tournament in The American Express. He also finished 3rd there in 2022, complimenting another previous 3rd and 11th at that course.
He arrives now with a proven record of winning in windy conditions in a major and in fantastic form. All adds up to a delicious recipe that I am happy to devour on current odds.
Harris English
I actually hold some concerns about this selection. Not because I think he will play poorly. Rather, that I fear English will play well this week. That would see a huge cut in his current Masters odds of 200/1, which I think provide a viable dark horse.
English has been in superlative form of late. Four consecutive finishes of 21st or better has been delivered through increasing gains in SG: APP. His strongest approach buckets also come from both wedge in hand and with long irons.
Already a winner on a Greg Norman design, he was victorious at El Cameleon in 2014. he has since followed that up with a pair of 5th place finishes in 2020 and 2021. Further suitability can be found at TPC Scottsdale, where he has a 3rd, 9th, 15th and 16th, and at TPC Summerlin with a 4th and 16th there.
He has also demonstrated an aptitude in tough conditions. Perhaps best demonstration of this is in the US Open, where he has 3 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts. Ranking 17th for SG: ATG and 6th for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 6 months, that should hold him good stead if the winds do get up later in the week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Much like Bjork, Bezuidenhout is a perennial model darling who again finds his way into these pages.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout his just hitting the ball at a much higher level than many people give him credit for. He actually ranks 2nd in this field for SG: APP over the last 6 months and 1st over the last 3 months. That is no small feat in a field that includes the likes of McIlroy, Aberg, Matsuyama, Spieth, Morikawa, and Conners. He gains across the board on approach. However, again his strongest areas come from the key approach metrics.
Bezuidenhout arrives at this tournament after a superb 13th at The Players (where he was 4th for SG: APP), which he backed up with a 9th at the Valspar Championship. Notably, he was 2nd earlier in the year at The American Express where he was also 11th and 40th in his only other two appearances there.
He finished 28th in his solitary appearance at this tournament. That is another good indication. Especially, for a course which has shown to hold strong prior connections and players have benefitted from a look at.
Lucas Glover
If the key to success at TPC San Antonio is being an excellent ball-striker, accurate off the tee, and a firm member of Team No-Putt, then no name jumps to mind faster than Lucas Glover.
Glover has made notable gains in the last year not just with his putting, but also ATG. He has now gained around the green in 7/8 of his most recent starts, including a massive +6.28 SG: ATG last week. He surprisingly ranks 12th in this field over the last 6 months for SG: ATG. For perspective, he ranks 89th for SG: ATG when you look at all-time. Given the difficulty from the sand here, it is promising that Glover ranks 12th on the PGA Tour this season for sand save percentage.
The 11th place finish last week continues a strong run in Texas. He has already finished 4th, 14th, and 18th here from 2019-2022. Other desert course form is seen at TPC Summerlin (3-7-9-15 there) and TPC Scottsdale (finished 20th in his first two appearances). Further, he boasts a 5th at the Greg Norman El Cameleon.
Finally, he holds a 10th, 12th, 13th, 15th, and 17th at The American Express. Being our strongest correlated course comp, it is also worth bearing in mind that is the tournament described by Jon Rahm as a putting contest. That is hardly the MO of Glover, adding further confidence to his chances this week.
Andrew Putnam
Another frequent attendee of the DeepDiveGolf betting cards, Putnam again is worthy of consideration at the Valero Texas Open.
We will need to forgive him an off week at the Valspar Championship. But, prior to that he gained +29.38 SG: APP in his two prior tournament starts.
Putnam showed a liking for this course early on, finishing 8th in just his second start at TPC San Antonio. Although he is yet to replicate that finish, he has only missed the cut once when arriving off a missed cut and three week break. Finishes of 28-36-41 outside that are hardly earth-shattering, but not the worst. Arguably, he arrives here playing the best golf of his career yet.
He rates out as 16th for SG: ATG, 12th for SG: PUTT, and 13th for driving accuracy over the past two years in this field. Predictably, his strongest approach buckets are both from under 100 yards and over 200 yards.
Correlated course form again ticks the box. A 7th at TPC Scottsdale and 11th, 12th, and 18th at TPC Summerlin show a liking for desert climes. Most notably, he has never missed the cut at The American Express after debut. His record since reads 17-34-10-14-36-47. He is worthy of speculation at the current long odds.
Brendon Todd
It is always seems that we end up with both Putnam and Todd at similar spots. I actually tipped Todd here last year at more than half the price, being just 45/1 at the time. Despite finishing 53rd, he hasn’t done much wrong since and I can’t really justify the huge jump in his price.
Included in that was a recent 22nd at TPC Scottsdale in a strong field, where he also has an additional 22nd and 26th in the last 4 years. He holds a 6th at The American Express, 12th at TPC Summerlin, and is even another winner at the Greg Norman El Cameleon back in 2020.
He also finished 6th recently in a signature event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That golf course is really too long for him and it was an impressive performance. He rates out as 4th for SG: AG, 10th for SG: PUTT, and 7th for driving accuracy in this field over the past 12 months. Completing the picture, he ranks 8th on the PGA Tour this season in sand save percentage. That could prove handy on one of the trickiest bunkered golf courses of the year.
Nate Lashley – Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
Finally, we finish out the Valero Texas Open betting card this week with my favourite bet on the board. I knew it was essential I grabbed Lashley in the PGA Draftcast to form the line-up I wanted. It was even more pleasing to hear I stole him from Spence, with reassurance that his sharp eyes had also spotted the value here. Make sure you catch the episode if you haven’t already pinned below.
Lashley looks to be very close to producing something special. He arrives after finishing 13th at The Players Championship and 21st the Houston Open. In the caliber of field of The Players, finishing 3rd for SG: APP is eye-catching. He backed that up ranking 20th SG: APP last week.
The driving accuracy has also seen some very notable improvement for Lashley, ranking 2nd in this field over the last 3 months. He also ranks out 28th for SG: ATG over the past 6 months and 28th for SG: APP over the past year. That all suggests a golfer that is hitting the ball really well and feeling confident in their swing
It is the approach metrics that really pop for me. Hopefully unsurprising at this point, his strongest ranges come from inside 100 yards and over 200 yards. Despite a best finish here of 18th, he has never arrived at this course in this type of form. A 3rd and 17th at TPC Scottsdale and a 12th at The American Express are enough to suggest he should find liking in the course when at his best.
Join Team Audience on the- PGA Draftcast
Once again, thank you for your support of DeepDiveGolf and for reading the Valero Texas Open betting tips.
After all the controversy of the PGA Draftcast at the Houston Open, we had a special guest in The Model Maniac to breakdown this week’s DFS field.
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