brucegray19722@gmail.com 
Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.
Course – Narashino Country Club
7,041 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bentgrass
Narashino Country Club is about an hour’s drive east of Tokyo, Japan. It was initially built in 1976 and features what I would call a ‘claustrophobic design.’ The fairways are of average width, but the venue as a whole emphasizes a substantial tree-lined nature where golfers will be required to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs throughout the 18 holes. That means accuracy takes the podium over distance this week, and we should get a general idea of that with the venue measuring under 7,100 yards. I want to note that length isn’t irrelevant if you’re going to intensify your research and think a little outside of the box, but I geared mine towards accuracy when making a build.
We have a unique number of par threes, with all five measuring below 200 yards. The easiest of the five is the 13th, which yields nearly a 20% birdie or better percentage and plays at 141 yards. The three par-fives are lengthy, and all exceed 560 yards. The 14th is 608 yards and only has a 25.2% birdie or better rate – a number that is greatly reduced for what we typically see on tour. And then we have the 10 par-fours that are all over the map in design.
The only other notable point that you will hear a lot of throughout the industry this week is that Japan has a different construction with two greens per hole. They do this to use one for the summer and the other for the winter, but golfers will need to be aware of it to avoid making any unnecessary mistakes.
- Weighted Par-Four (20%) – That is built towards Narashino Country Club being the venue in mind. It is going to include a combination of those key distances that I mentioned between 350-400 and 450-500 yards, as well as a varying amount of birdie or better mixed with bogey avoidance.
- Weighted Par-Three (10%) -We have one more than usual, and four of the five are gettable. That stat is derived from par-three average and then some of the key proximity ranges where the holes are set up.
- Weighted Par-Five (10%) – Overall par-five birdie or better, some long iron play and how a golfer has performed on longer par-fives throughout their career.
- Weighted Bentgrass (10%) – That is 70% strokes gained total at bentgrass properties and 30% strokes gained putting on bentgrass. I liked that combination because it added in some putting but still kept the premier course fits up top.
- Weighted Proximity (15%) – For the most part, that was removing a lot of the 200+ proximity ranges and recalculating the model to try and mimic some semblance of the venue this week. The percentages won’t be perfect because we don’t have data at hand, but I still think it works better removing the less critical elements from the equation.
- Strokes Gained Total on Short Par 70s (10%) – Narashino is a specific layout that falls under an easily quantifiable metric. It doesn’t mean all players that have struggled at a shorter test will do so again, but it is nice to have an idea of who is more likely to pop from off the pace.
- Weighted Driving (15%) – I used a combination of driving accuracy and fairways gained.
- Sand Save (10%) – There are a lot of bunkers that surround the greens. Being able to get up and down should help salvage score.
High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Collin Morikawa ($11,200), Xander Schauffele ($11,000) – Unfortunately, pricing is really good, and maybe that has more to do with the fact that the field is watered down at the very bottom, but If I am being honest, I don’t love this tournament from a DraftKings perspective. You get these weird built-in scenarios when you have two golfers that are sub-eight/1 to win the event, and you have to at least consider fading one or both of them in any large-sized GPP if they reach 30%+. However, the problem with that is not only is the ownership warranted, but I also have a hard time seeing how they don’t at least stay competitive. I think the best course of action is to figure out which one you like the most, but you can get very contrarian, very quickly if you skip the big four and build in other directions. Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300) and Will Zalatoris ($10,500) are fine on the surface, but there isn’t a big enough drop-off in ownership or price for me to want to pivot in a separate direction from Morikawa or Schauffele. I’d want at least one of those things to be true, and I don’t think either will be the case in Japan.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000) – I realize this will be a contrarian take, but I was able to alter various portions of my model to show the Englishman as a value. Fleetwood is 37th for me out of 78 players when it comes to strokes gained approach, but when I condensed the proximity numbers to equal more of what he should get this weekend at Narashino, he grades eighth in this field. We know from experience that Fleetwood does his best work overseas, and as someone that constantly finds him overvalued, I don’t believe he is here. Playing Fleetwood in any capacity, whether as the second man in behind Morikawa/Xander or as your first option, is a surefire way to get unique.
Favorite Cash Play– Xander Schauffele ($11,000)
$9,000 Range
Joaquin Niemann ($9,900) – The first bet I placed before Paul Casey withdrew from the field was Joaquin Niemann at 28/1. We have seen him go ice cold with the putter recently, but the rest of his game has remained sharp. He has gained with his irons in 14 of 16. Off the tee in 11 of 13, and while we aren’t talking about massive numbers during most of those appearances, my math continues to believe another win is around the corner. The rest of the group is more of a mix-and-match for me. I like this section as a whole, but the majority are fairly priced options that become intriguing because of their reduced ownership number compared to my model. Alex Noren ($9,700) carries some of that Tommy Fleetwood type appeal. I like Erik Van Rooyen at $9,500. Keegan Bradley ($9,400) is more of a GPP target because some of his putting woes might get reduced on these manicured greens. Maverick McNealy ($9,300) and Cameron Tringale ($9,200) are both worth a look in various builds. My model prefers each for cash, but I can be convinced to grab a few shares at the right percentage. And Emiliano Grillo ($9,100) carries a lot of that same potential that we discussed with Keegan Bradley, although I do believe the American has more upside.
Additional Thoughts: Don’t be afraid to play some of these choices for above ownership consensus
$8,000 Range
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,900), K.H. Lee ($8,700) – Both Jhonattan Vegas and K.H. Lee are very much in play. I prefer them in cash because each ranks inside the top-eight of that model, but I am not going to talk anyone out of using them in GPP lineups.
Ryan Palmer ($8,300) – Ryan Palmer’s form looks shaky with multiple missed cuts in his last handful of showings, but I am willing to ignore most of that because of how he fits for the course. He ranks 10th in this field over his past 50 rounds on short par 70 layouts and is inside the top-20 for weighted proximity, putting from 5-10 feet and overall birdie or better percentage.
Chris Kirk ($8,100) – I believe the stats are better than the form would indicate for Chris Kirk, and it is the same thought process I just mentioned with Ryan Palmer of how the shorter layout might provide more upside. Kirk has gained with his irons in eight of nine starts. Off the tee in four of seven, but this is the kind of venue you would anticipate seeing him find success because of his accuracy off the tee. He ranks 10th in my recalculated proximity category and is inside the top-15 for GIR, three-putt percentage, sand save percentage, overall bogey avoidance, scrambling, par-four average and scoring at a short par 70. Kirk is the most significant disparity in my model regarding my rank versus his price tag of anyone $8,000 or above.
Other Thoughts: I have given a deeper dive to Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) and Charley Hoffman ($8,500). I don’t mind fitting either into builds
$7,000 Range
Brendon Todd ($7,400) – I love how Brendon Todd has played in his career on similar par-fours as the ones he has in front of him in Japan. He is the number one driver and number one putter in my model, which is a great combination for someone that at least can get hot with the irons out of nowhere. He has pretty much been rotating between earning and losing with his approach game over the last few months, but when he has gained, 2.6 at the Fortinet, 4.6 at the Wyndham – those are also courses that benefit finding fairways.
Pat Perez ($7,300) – I am curious to see where Pat Perez’s ownership goes, but it is worth noting that he withdrew from the Shriners on the final hole of the day on Friday after already being guaranteed to miss the cut. That isn’t an injury problem…that sounds like a man that wants to gamble on the Vegas strip.
Additional Thoughts: I like Garrick Higgo ($7,800) if you are looking for a contrarian dart throw in GPPs. Other top values for me are Harry Higgs ($7,500), Henrik Norlander ($7,400) – preferably cash, Matt Jones ($7,200) has playability across the board, Brendan Steele ($7,100) and my model likes Doug Ghim and Tom Hoge at $7,000.
$6,000 Range
Andrew Putnam ($6,700) – Andrew Putnam is ranked 28th for me overall. 23rd for safety and enters the week with two top-30s over his last three starts. There are certain players this week that received a boost because of their short games, and Putnam did fall into that category by ranking inside of the top-15 in sand save percentage, scrambling, bogey avoidance and bentgrass putting
James Hahn ($6,300) – There is no guarantee that James Hahn performs in Japan, but he has shown he has winning upside when he does put himself into contention. I always prefer him at a course that rewards driving accuracy, and he should get that here in Narashino
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Roger Sloan ($6,800), Doc Redman ($6,800), Chan Kim ($6,500), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400), Adam Long ($6,300), Kazuki Higa ($6,500), Scott Vincent ($6,400), Rikuya Hoshino ($6,200), Kyle Stanley ($6,200), Wesley Bryan ($6,000) and Shaun Norris ($6,000)
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