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Here are the links to this week’s PGA Draftcast and Bettor Golf Podcast.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Abraham Ancer ($10,400) – It is a good collection of golfers at the top, but the contrarian pivot belongs to Abraham Ancer, who grades second in my model when looking for nothing but upside. Ancer appeared like he was shaking off the cobwebs during the Mexico Open after a small health-recovery break, and I think he will better have his footing under him at a venue that suits his game from a stylistic sense.
Corey Conners ($10,100) – Not all chalk is bad, and we see that here with Corey Conners approaching 20%+ as of Tuesday night. The Canadian grades first in all iterations of my model, and it is hard to ignore the +115 price tag you can find on him in a head-to-head matchup against Rory McIlroy. I am not necessarily advocating for that to be a wager, but it highlights that the $1,400 reduction in salary is getting you a pretty matching option for the week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,000) – It feels like a good bounceback spot for Matthew Fitzpatrick, who torched the industry at the RBC Heritage. The ball-striking was on-point during that start, which makes it surprising that his typical trusty flat-stick let him down, but don’t be afraid to go back to the Englishman if you are looking for an option in the $10,000 range.
Other Consideration – Rory McIlroy’s price tag is so much higher than everyone else’s that it is causing everything to be pushed in a few certain areas of the board.
$9,000 Range
Russell Henley ($9,300) – If you were to ask me who my favorite play on the board was from a roster construction standpoint, it would likely be Russell Henley. The American fits GPP builds nicely, despite his 17% mark, and he also has playability in cash thanks to his pristine ball-striking numbers.
Other Targets: I’ll find myself underweight to most of the range.
$8,000 Range
Sergio Garcia ($8,700) – When we think of players that provide their best golf at ball-striking venues that negate putting, insert a picture of Sergio Garcia. The Spaniard has some red flags looming because of his hit-and-miss irons over the past few months, but six percent is way too shallow for a golfer who possesses tangible win equity.
Si Woo Kim ($8,400) – The offshore markets love Si Woo Kim. My model rates him relatively highly. I am not sure how much exposure I will have to the South Korean at the end of the day, but he will be one of the few choices in my player pool inside the $8,000 range.
Webb Simpson ($8,100) – I sound like a broken record, but Webb Simpson continues to be too cheap and under-owned for his talent. The second we see any form of life from the 36-year-old, he will jump back into the $9,000 discussion, so I will keep taking my rebated price tag and waiting for him to put the pieces together.
Other Thoughts: Can We trust Paul Casey ($8,800)? My gut-instinct says yes, but please be aware of the risk you are taking on because of his health.
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Keith Mitchell ($7,800) – I am out if the ownership creeps over 15 percent, but Keith Mitchell presents win equity at his $7,800 price tag. There appears to be a reason why Mitchell is in head-to-head matchups against many of the $9,000 golfers versus his closest counterparts.
Doug Ghim ($7,800) – It is never an easy ride when you roster Doug Ghim, but there aren’t many golfers in this field that possess better ball-striking and mid-iron proximity. Don’t be shocked if Ghim flirts with the first page of the leaderboard, although the missed cut potential is always looming around the corner. They don’t call him the ‘Ghim-Reaper’ for the hell of it.
Brian Harman ($7,700) – Brian Harman ranks seventh in this field for overall bogey avoidance and is also inside the top-20 for strokes gained off the tee over his past 24 rounds.
Kevin Streelman ($7,700) – Kevin Streelman might get overlooked because of the popularity around him, but his two top-32s at this course in 2017 and 2018 highlights a golfer that should feel right at home.
Joel Dahmen ($7,600) – The upside is a question for another day, but Joel Dahmen’s safety is worth the squeeze as the 28th-priced golfer on the board.
Adam Long ($7,400) – Sometimes you have to trust the recent form when it aligns with the numbers, and Adam Long’s back-to-back top-15 finishes fit nicely for a golfer that ranked just outside my top-30.
Lucas Glover ($7,200), Martin Laird ($7,100) – You can tune into the Bettor Golf Podcast to hear me compare Glover and Laird countless times, but both golfers could fit nicely together into a build since they provide the same style to a T.
Additional Thoughts: Brendan Steele ($7,300), Russell Knox ($7,300), Alex Smalley ($7,300), Cameron Davis ($7,200), Kurt Kitayama ($7,200)
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: I am mostly looking to fade this section. You can use my model to find some value, but it gets grim quickly.
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