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Geoff Fienberg joined this week’s PGA DraftCast, and it was a rowdy show for Stixpicks and myself on the Bettor Golf Podcast. I’d highly recommend giving both a listen.
I am going to rapid-fire through all the picks this week. We will return back to a more standard article a week from now.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Scottie Scheffler ($11,300) – Scottie Scheffler will be your leverage play in the $10,000+ range with the best combination of upside and unique construction.
Justin Thomas ($10,900) – It is hard to ignore Justin Thomas as the top player in my model. The ownership is solid for the two-time PGA Championship winner, and the upside goes without question.
Other Considerations – Rory McIlroy ($10,500) – I like Rory’s “fit” for Brookline, but I do want to point out that we haven’t ever seen him win an event at less than 12-under par.
$9,000 Range
Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – Schauffele’s five-straight top-seven finishes at the U.S. Open will be challenging to ignore.
Dustin Johnson ($9,400) – If you want to separate a build away from the chalk, Johnson accomplishes that task easily at two percent. There will be volatility, but the upside is always present at a U.S. Open.
Will Zalatoris ($9,300) – Fairways and made putts. That is the recipe for Zalatoris if he wants to win his first PGA Tour title.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) – Cantlay has a higher missed cut expectation in my model than anyone we have talked about other than Dustin Johnson, but he also has the highest ceiling of anyone not named McIlroy, Scheffler or Thomas.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100) – Matsuyama’s two wins in his last 10 completed tournaments is an impressive total for a golfer trending towards being sub-10 percent.
Other Targets: I will find myself lower on Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth than consensus.
$8,000 Range
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500) – Fitzpatrick is a cash-game staple that does have playability elsewhere.
Sam Burns ($8,300) – Probably the most win equity on the board sub-$9,000. Burns is a GPP darling because of his reasonable ownership total and upside.
Tony Finau ($8,200) – I selected Tony Finau first overall during the Draftcast, and he is the second-best value on the board for me at $8,200.
Other Thoughts: Niemann, Berger and Homa will be included in my core.
$7,000 Range
Corey Conners ($7,900) – The lack of U.S. Open success is alarming, but the upside is there as a sub-10 percent option in GPPs.
Aaron Wise ($7,800) – My favorite target on the board. You can tune into Bettor Golf to hear why Wise is going to be a staple of everything I do this week.
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) – The recent metrics turn the Englishman into a value in all markets.
Talor Gooch ($7,500) – If short game matters, let’s not overlook Gooch’s first-place ranking in my model for strokes gained around the green.
Sebastian Munoz ($7,400) – Munoz is trending in the right direction statistically and has the current form that you would hope to see on a cheaper option.
Harold Varner III ($7,300) – Don’t let the perceived lack of win equity fool you. Varner is a golfer with the potential to massively exceed his price tag.
Additional Thoughts: Mito and Sungjae are two of the top five mispriced players on the slate. Patrick Rodgers, Si Woo Kim, Luke List and Brian Harman will make the core.
$6,000 Range
I’d mostly avoid this section if I can, but Kurt Kitayama and Adri Arnaus would be the two golfers I will randomly squeeze into builds.
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