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Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast
I am going to rapid-fire through all the picks this week.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) – I thought Scott Holdridge said it eloquently tonight on the PGA DraftCast show. I am paraphrasing, but “everyone is worried about numbers and stats, but at some point, you have to worry more about win equity.” There is nobody in the world in better form than the American, and we know he can roll that form over from start to start after his utter domination of the tour in 2022.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) – Patrick Cantlay is the top-ranked player on my model for upside, and he carries an average weight in the statistical category that places him as high as anyone I have seen this year. I didn’t have him lower than eighth in the seven categories I ran, and he was either first, second or third seven of those times. We know the course history has been impressive, with four consecutive top-15 finishes, and the form is starting to come around after producing back-to-back top-14 showings at the U.S. Open and Memorial.
Other Considerations – Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – I have no issues riding the form. Xander Schauffele ($10,000) – Schauffele will be the top leverage play of the group, although everyone is rather close to one another.
$9,000 Range
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) – We are looking at one finish inside the top-15 for Tommy Fleetwood during his single attempt at TPC River Highlands, but I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect a similar outcome again. Fleetwood’s third-place ranking for safety happens to push him up further on my GPP list because of his sub-10 percent mark, and the Englishman grades inside the top 15 for both TPC tracks and Pete Dye layouts.
Harold Varner III ($9,000) – I’ve used this example a handful of times, but Stixpicks noticed a trend in Varner’s game that he produces better on shorter tests where he can club down than the driver-friendly layouts where you can bomb away. I don’t know why that is, but sub-7,000 yards is an ideal yardage total for that theory to get tested once again.
Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,600) – More of a cash-game play for me. Sungjae Im ($9,700) – Feels like a quality bounce-back spot.
$8,000 Range
Webb Simpson ($8,500) – I will keep all three of these players to a quick rundown because you can hear me talk about them in an in-depth fashion on any of my shows, but Simpson ranks second in this field (behind only Patrick Cantlay) when combining strokes gained at short courses, TPC properties and Dye tracks.
Marc Leishman ($8,400) – Seven top-39 finishes out his last nine attempts for Marc Leishman at TPC River Highlands, including a win in 2012.
Jason Day ($8,100) – I am usually the ‘Boy Who Cried DAYYYYYYYYY’ every week, but my model does happen to like him in Connecticut – evident by his top-10 ranking from an overall sense. Unlike the usual fake hype, this one is real.
Other Thoughts: Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley is a play of mine on DraftKings. I also faded Denny McCarthy by taking Brendan Steele over him at -115.
$7,000 Range
Brendan Steele ($7,700) – Steele is going to be popular, but I am leaning towards him being good chalk for a test where he can use his driver as an advantage.
Si Woo Kim ($7,600) – Let’s keep an eye that his ownership stays under 10 percent, but the upside is there for a top-10 finish. Kim is one of the best players in this field when combining Pete Dye tracks and courses under 7,200 yards.
Cameron Davis ($7,500) – Eleventh in my model from an upside perspective, Cameron Davis epitomizes the boom-or-bust nature. If his ownership starts increasing, we might have to look elsewhere.
Sepp Straka ($7,100) – The only argument against this play is that I do believe you can get the same upside versus volatility combination from Charley Hoffman at $6,500.
Additional Thoughts: Here are the players that are currently showing as a value against price + ownership in the $7,000s – Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900), Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500) – that would be GPP-only, Mackenzie Hughes ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,100) and Stewart Cink ($7,000).
$6,000 Range
Zach Johnson ($6,800), Kramer Hickok ($6,700), Charley Hoffman ($6,500), Hank Lebioda ($6,500), Tyler Duncan ($6,400)
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