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If you haven’t had a chance, please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast that I do with Joel Schreck and Sia Nejad.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Jon Rahm ($11,100) –Something has to give for Jon Rahm, who has averaged 10.9 strokes per start over his last three contests when it comes to ball-striking. Rahm is trending towards going under-owned in this market because of his poor short game numbers, but I would be careful in removing him from my pool.
Justin Thomas ($10,400) – Psh! Who needs trends? I will save the negative talk regarding Justin Thomas this week for others in the space and instead talk about why his chances of going back-to-back are higher than perception. Thomas has produced the most birdies at TPC Sawgrass since 2017, and it won’t hurt matters that he has a cumulative average of 5.8 in my model – a number that is as low as I have seen from any non-Rahm option. Thomas can win this event with anything better than a neutral putter, and his 18th-place grade on fast/lightning greens might be enough to help that cause.
Other Consideration – Collin Morikawa ($10,700) and Rory McIlroy ($10,800) are both in play. Morikawa will be the chalk. Rory provides some contrarian leverage.
$9,000 Range
Xander Schauffele ($9,700) – I mentioned this fact on both the Bettor Golf Podcast and PGA Draftcast that golfers have spoken about playing to the center of these greens because of their size, and it is challenging to find a player on tour that benefits more than Xander Schauffele. You don’t have to look any further than Xander’s combination of ranking 24th in GIR percentage and 85th in proximity to know he typically plays away from the pin for safety, but that mixture gets enhanced when the center of the green not only keeps him safe at Sawgrass but also should produce more straightforward looks than he is accustomed to having on a bigger surface.
Other Targets: Dustin Johnson ($9,800) – I honestly don’t know what to expect out of Johnson, but his potential places him firmly in the mix when it comes to GPP builds. Jordan Spieth ($9,000). GPP-only also.
$8,000 Range
Daniel Berger ($8,800) – Daniel Berger is a favorite in every matchup he has at the offshore books, which includes some against golfers in the $9,000 range. You are going to hear his name all week, but this isn’t an example of bad chalk. Berger is very much in play.
Sungjae Im ($8,300) – I would limit Sungjae Im to GPPs because of the trajectory he produces in my model, but he ranks top-five in this field for ball-striking and is also sixth in overall bogey avoidance.
Other Thoughts: If you are ballsy enough to play Tony Finau at $8,500, there is top-20 potential available. The floor is lower than the slew of balls on the bottom of the 17th, but I assume he is no higher than two percent owned. That sort of leverage always intrigues me. Louis Oosthuizen ($8,700).
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Abraham Ancer ($7,600) – WHAT THE HELL, JOEL!? I don’t think it needs further explanation that Joel blew my mind during the PGA Draftcast when he selected Abraham Ancer second overall. I love the pick, and Ancer is someone I will have exposure to in not only the top-30 market but also as an outright wager.
Russell Henley ($7,400) – Yes, the four missed cuts during his past five Players Championship appearances will provide some concern, but Russell Henley does have two top-25s at the track if we stretch the data back a little further. Henley has been known to run hot-and-cold throughout his career, and he enters the week sizzling with 13 straight made cuts.
Sergio Garcia ($7,400) – Sergio Garcia isn’t necessarily the first name I would circle in this range – that would belong to Ancer, Henley or Corey Conners, but the course history and current form should be enough to take a few risks on his elite skill set of par-five scoring and total driving.
Corey Conners ($7,300) – Corey Conners is a sizeable favorite inside of the head-to-head market against multiple $8,000 golfers, including Louis Oosthuizen at $8,700. This price is too shallow.
Si Woo Kim ($7,300) – Si Woo Kim was leading the PGA Tour in consecutive rounds of shooting par or better before a slip-up at the Genesis Invitational ended that streak. We know Kim is a Pete Dye specialist that has won at the track before, and I find it difficult to ignore him at anything sub-10 percent because of the upside he possesses.
Seamus Power ($7,200) – Volatile? Yes. Worth the risk? Potentially at 1-2 percent ownership. Power imploded at the API on Thursday, which eventually led to him missing his third cut in a row, but the metrics are not as bad as they might seem on the surface. I think we see him find success at Sawgrass, and it could open up the floodgates at his going rate.
Additional Thoughts: Jason Day ($7,500) – No, seriously. Day grades as a value this week. Paul Casey ($7,400), Talor Gooch ($7,200), Chris Kirk ($7,000), Alex Noren ($7,000)
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Keegan Bradley ($6,900), Brian Harman ($6,900), Sebastian Munoz ($6,700), Aaron Wise ($6,600), Thomas Pieters ($6,300)
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