brucegray19722@gmail.com 
Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.
Sea Island Golf Club
7,005 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda
Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but did undergo some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. I always note that the main takeaway from a Fazio design is the extreme undulation that can be found throughout, but I think he did an excellent job of keeping the links-style nature about as pronounced as the day it was constructed.
One of the most notable things to keep in mind is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the Plantation Course. Rotational events are always a little more challenging to handicap, but there are at least some similarities in green size and grass type. I’m not going to go wild trying to model both courses into the mix since I think it does more harm than good when the more critical weekend rounds are going to be found at the same track, but I don’t mind adding in some emphasis on par-five scoring since the one-off day will feature four par-fives. I didn’t do that in my model, but I certainly believe it is on the table. Wind typically plays as a factor with narrow landing areas off the tee, and it is a benefit if you can find the short grass. On average, the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the fairway, which is right up there with the highest GIR percentage on tour. The putting surfaces are larger than average, and we have an eye-popping nine par-fours that measure between 400-450 yards. I will call it 10 for the sake of my research since one of them is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers are the 368-yard 8th hole and the 470-yard 18th.
The last two items I feel are worth mentioning would be 8.7% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond here than a typical stop. That is a little troublesome when building models because it suggests a putting contest, and then the distance of 125-175 on approach shots is 8.5% higher than average. All other ranges are below the median output total. Tournaments like this are tough to measure since putting plays such a prominent role, but I tried to get unique in my outlook. As always you can listen to any of my podcasts to get a more in-depth breakdown, including the one I do weekly with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck where we handicap the entire show live at 5:00 pacific time on Tuesday.
- Weighted Strokes Gained Category – Easy Courses/Bermuda Grass/Under 7,200 Yards (30%) – It was a relatively even split between the three, but to me, those three stats encompassed what I wanted to find at a venue that isn’t perfect from a quantifiable sense. It also let me combine statistics together that are 1. Predicable and consistent when we get set ups like this and 2. Might go under the radar as primary pieces of a calculation.
- Weighted Putting + Iron Play (30%) – I also did 30% on a recalculated metric that took proximity from 125-175 yards and putting from five feet and beyond on Bermuda greens and combined them together with a 65/35 split of putting over proximity to form a unique category there. That is the opposite of conventional wisdom when you typically do something like that since proximity tends to be more important than a random putting total, but I didn’t see a great deal of predictability from that range in past leaderboards. Yes, the plurality of shots come there, but the easy answer remains that more putts are being made from 10-feet and beyond, which naturally means irons aren’t being hit as close.
- Moderate To Severe Wind (10%) – It is still an easy course, but the one true defense can be the gusts. I thought it helped to have it in my model to an extent, even if it is an outlier type stat.
- Greens In Regulation Gained (15%) – I noted this on my ‘Be The Number’ podcast that I wanted to try and avoid the GIR or accuracy routes this week because it starts making the same builds as every other user. That obviously has less importance in the betting market since what others are betting has little impact on what I am going to do, but I did like this stat because of the correlation I found from past leaderboards
- Par-Four Scoring 400-450 Yards (15%) – That is another outlier category that isn’t great for modeling purposes, but the fact that I have rounded us off to have 10 means over 55% of the scoring chances come in this precise zone. That has to mean something when we are condensing data into the same range over and over again.
High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Scottie Scheffler (10,900) – It has been a quick turnaround for Scottie Scheffler, who is just a few weeks removed from a much cheaper price tag. However, some of these spots can be intriguing when a player is marginally overpriced but comes in as one of the pivots of the range. I am curious to see where Scheffler heads by Wednesday night, but it is the same theory I mentioned with him last week at the Houston Open. My model thinks he is a negative value against his price. A positive value against his ownership. And he is the betting favorite in all H2H matchups. Not that I take that to be worth a ton, but it at least doubles down the notion that multiple outlets have him as the man to beat. I’m going to keep an eye on where his popularity goes, but I can find interest in playing him if this hovers anywhere near 10 percent.
Webb Simpson (10,700) – My model always likes Webb Simpson, and it particularly finds interest in him when he gets handed a track where he has found past success. We see that here with two top-three results over his past three showings, although it is worth noting that there have been two additional finishes inside the 30s since 2016. That technically means this might not be as robust of a venue as locations like the Wyndham Championship, Sony Open or RBC Heritage, but there isn’t a better golfer on tour when it comes to predictability at the same events yearly.
Louis Oosthuizen ($10,400) – Louis Oosthuizen has surprisingly gone ice cold with his putter, losing in four straight events and averaging negative-two strokes per start. Oosthuizen is leading this field in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds, so if he is able to flip the script with what should be the best part of his game, the stats are trending towards a big result. I do have some concerns with him for cash-game-type contests because it is always scary when what you do best isn’t working, but that can easily be fixed, especially for something like an outright ticket. We don’t need the safety in a bet like that and just want upside. As far as things go for GPPs, I am going to find myself overweight on him because of the upside he possesses. The South African looks to be the lowest-owned option of the big four, and I believe he carries as much win equity as whoever you want to compare him to for the week.
Cameron Smith ($10,300) – Cameron Smith is the number one ranked player in my model when looking for that recipe of irons + putting and is also fifth when it comes to scoring on an easy course. The Aussie has some of the most playability across the board in my mind.
Fade – Harris English ($10,100) – I don’t feel as strongly about this as I did before talking to Joel Schreck on our live show, but Harris Enlgish remains off the table completely for me in cash after withdrawing from the CJ Cup when his back flared up a few weeks ago. I can see more of the interest in GPPs because of how he fits statistically in a few areas, but I prefer him on long iron tests than these pitch and putt events.
$9,000 Range
Corey Conners ($9,900) – I guess I am all in on Corey Conners at the RSM. Here is a list of categories where he graded in the top-10 of my model. You will see it is almost across the board in every pertinent measurable, including various others that I didn’t include into my mix but still found worth looking into. I will note that OTT is a few percent more impactful here than an average tour stop. A lot of that is because of the accuracy that comes into play, but we have seen good OTT players like Jason Day and Luke List take varying routes to find success. Conners is second in the field when it comes to strokes gained off the tee over the two-year model that I run, and he grades inside of the top-10 in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained total, strokes gained at easy courses, venues under 7,200 cards, wind play, Bermuda grass, par-four scoring from 400-450 yards, accuracy, GIRs gained and his combination of putting + iron play. When we look at just that weighted putting total, he turns into one of the biggest climbers when running a model to find how a golfer improves when putting from distance versus an overall array of the stat. The top-five largest improvements I had came from Branden Grace, Russell Henley, Conners, Matt Wallace and Charles Howell III.
Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,700), Adam Scott ($9,000) – I tend to believe Russell Henley is a better outright bet than he is DraftKings play at 20%.
$8,000 Range
Chris Kirk ($8,000) – Chris Kirk is one of just four players to grade inside the top-19 for me in all metrics that I looked at in my model. The other three were Corey Conners, Webb Simpson and Russell Henley.
Other Thoughts: Justin Rose ($8,800), Brendon Todd ($8,400) and Seamus Power ($8,200) are where I am most interested in finding additional exposure. I do like Joel Dahmen ($$8,500), but I would prefer for his ownership to drop by a few points for GPPs.
$7,000 Range
Brian Harman $7,800 – Brain Harman is GPP-only at $7,800, but he is one of the better contrarian values I can find in this group. Three top-32s in his last four at the track. The iron play is worrisome having lost in seven straight, but while the results during that time have been far from good, he isn’t exactly bombing in his performances either. Three have resulted in missed cuts. The rest have ranged from 29th to 75th. He is definitely far from my favorite play because of his lack of safety, but I do think he has top-20 win equity in this field. That means something when nobody looks like they want to use him
Charles Howell $7,800 – Charles Howell III can be fit into pretty much any build and ranks as one of the five best improvements in this field when given this specific green type.
Matt Wallace $7,600 – Matt Wallace is someone that never grades out well for me but landed fourth in my model when looking at overall rank. The best way to deploy him is likely in cash, but 10-11% is low enough for me to consider in GPPs as well.
Additional Thoughts: JASON DAY ($7,600), Kevin Streelman ($7,600), Branden Grace ($7,400), Emiliano Grillo ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,300), Brian Stuard ($7,200) and Alex Smalley ($7,100) are plays I will be finding myself on in various spots. I didn’t include them with the top group because I just looked at the highest priced choices, but there is value to be found throughout in this range.
$6,000 Range
Michael Thompson ($6,700) – Twelve consecutive rounds of being par or better to go along with four made cuts. Those are huge benefits for a golfer that now draws a venue that suits his game as the ninth-ranked player in this field for accuracy and 21st at courses under 7,200 yards.
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Harry Higgs ($6,900), Zach Johnson ($6,900), Camilo Villegas ($6,800), Cameron Davis ($6,800), Andre Putnam ($6,400), Davis Thompson ($6,400)
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