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Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – Rory McIlroy has averaged 8.26 shots with his ball-striking over his past five tournaments and enters the week as the second-ranked golfer in my model for weighted current form over the last 10 weeks. As you might expect, Xander Schauffele tops that list.
Other Considerations – Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) – We have multiple routes we can go when trying to get contrarian, but I will pinpoint in on Scottie Scheffler as my preferred target when trying to get unique up top. We are seeing Jon Rahm grade as the top non-Rory golfer on the board at most offshore shops, but I will trust my numbers with both being extremely close. It is worth noting that Spieth is a massive dog to most competitors.
$9,000 Range
Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – If pricing had come out after the Scottish Open, I don’t think it is outlandish to say Schauffele could have been the second man on the salary scale.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) – The perception of bad form in majors tends to hurt Patrick Cantlay in these spots when it comes to his price and ownership. Thankfully for us, those are beneficial things we can take advantage of from a DFS perspective, and there aren’t too many better values you will find on the board at his projected 10% going rate.
Dustin Johnson ($9,200) – The high-end metrics from Dustin Johnson are phenomenal, as we see him rank first in weighted tee-to-green, fourth in par-four scoring, second in total driving and fourth in weighted proximity
Other Targets: Cameron Smith ($9,500) is in play for GPPs.
$8,000 Range
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) – Offshore markets love Tommy Fleetwood, and he is one only four players in the $8,000 range to grade as a positive value for me compared to his price. My next mention would be the other top-end choice, but the reduction we get in ownership from Fleetwood to Finau probably makes him a better DFS target when directly comparing. For what it is worth, Fleetwood is a marginal favorite over Dustin Johnson in head-to-head matchups.
Tony Finau ($8,400) – Finau will likely be one of the two or three highest owned players, but the price is right, and the safety should be there after he has provided five top-27 finishes at the Open during his last five attempts.
Other Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($8,300) – Nothing but a GPP contrarian dart throw.
$7,000 Range
Adam Scott ($7,700) – Scott’s ability to putt from off the surface should generate a massive boost in potential. Offshore markets are not in love with him when looking directly at head-to-head battles, but the outright totals have been ticking in the sharp direction.
Webb Simpson ($7,600) – I maintain my belief that the results for Webb Simpson. The American ranks 10th in this field when it comes to three-putt avoidance on these slow, systematic tests, and we also get top-five outputs in windy conditions and my reweighed par-four scoring.
Tiger Woods ($7,500) – The days where Tiger Woods can win at a standard Par 72 probably are long behind us, but these quirky tests that enhance par-four scoring and reduce par-five performances can still be conducive for him to find success.
Paul Casey ($7,500) – Enjoy the best minute splice of PGA DraftCast history.
Russell Henley ($7,200) – If Augusta is a comp course to St. Andrews, Henley should be right at home. The weighted proximity places him inside the top-10 of this field, and the driving accuracy should create extra rollout.
Thomas Pieters ($7,200) – Distance + short iron play was not a category that I merged together, but Pieters graded 12th in this field from those two factors.
Additional Thoughts: Marc Leishman ($7,700), Abraham Ancer ($7,600), Sergio Garcia ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,100)
$6,000 Range
Keith Mitchell ($6,900), Kevin Kisner ($6,900), Stewart Cink ($6,800), Guido Migliozzi ($6,800), Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800), Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Wyndham Clark ($6,600), Phil Mickelson ($6,600), Zach Johnson ($6,500), Keita Nakajima ($6,200)
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