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If you haven’t done so already, please be sure to watch both the PGA Draftcast and Bettor Golf Podcast.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Joel said it best on the PGA Draftcast tonight when he alluded to Jon Rahm being too cheap. We have seen him in the $12,000 range in stronger fields than this, and I think there is some potential to stack the top of the board with two $10,000+ options if you are worried about the ownership around the Spaniard.
Tony Finau ($10,400) – I haven’t been shy about calling Tony Finau my favorite play on the board, and he is the only golfer in this field that ranks inside the top-16 in all categories that I weighed.
Abraham Ancer ($10,300) – There is risk around Abraham Ancer because of his potential for withdrawal, but I will take some shots in mass-field contests because of his reduction in popularity. I assume Ancer would have been between 15-20% if we were guaranteed a clean bill of health, and I will take a shot on him at between four to eight percent.
Other Consideration – Patrick Reed ($10,000) is worth a look. I prefer him over Kevin Na ($10,100).
$9,000 Range
Cameron Tringale ($9,700) – Tringale lacks some appeal in the space because of his lack of win equity, but there is a reason he ranks third in my two-year model when it comes to strokes gained total. Tringale is a pivot to consider in this section if you want to clear up ownership, and he ranks ninth overall in my model.
Chris Kirk ($9,600) – I don’t see much difference between Tringale and Chris Kirk, as each golfer looks like top-10 values for the Mexico Open.
Matt Jones ($9,000) – Let’s see where the ownership goes before locking in Matt Jones, but his par-five birdie or better and scoring on long, straightforward courses place him inside the top-10 of the event.
Other Targets: Gary Woodland ($9,900) and Aaron Wise ($9,500) are only worrisome because of their ownership. I do tend to like how both set up stylistically for the course.
$8,000 Range
Charles Howell III ($8,400) – Charles Howell III graded inside the top-14 in all five strokes gained metrics that I looked at to try and mimic Vidanta. That is all I need to see to know he should fit the venue, and it doesn’t hurt matters that he also places inside the top-20 in par-five birdie or better.
Other Thoughts: I am going to be underweight in this range. I will play some Talor Moore ($8,200), but it is mostly a pass outside of Moore and Howell.
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,600) – Picking Patrick Rodgers has to work eventually… He is volatile, but he also grades inside the top-25 golfers in this field for upside, which seems enticing at six percent.
Wyndham Clark ($7,600) – My model doesn’t love the play, but Wyndham Clark is the number one mover at offshore books, coming in as low as 40/1 at some shops.
J.T. Poston ($7,500) – J.T. Poston has shown some life recently with back-to-back top-41 performances, and we have seen a massive improvement with his results anytime he gets a venue that has easy-to-hit fairways with no rough.
Alex Smalley ($7,400) – Alex Smalley is one of the better upside climbers I have in my model. There is a ton of missed cut potential when we look at just his recent form, but the statistical makeup for Vidanta is incredible.
Michael Thompson ($7,200) – Michael Thompson looks to be the best sub-one percent option on DraftKings because he does have top-20 potential. The fact that he ranks fifth when I recalculated my tee to green stats compared to his 71st-place grade only adds to that appeal.
Danny Lee($7,100) – Danny Lee has struggled some on longer courses, but the rest of the data looks good. Lee is 49 spots better in my reweighted tee to green stat versus a random course, and he is also inside the top-20 in birdie or better and long iron + distance, which might be able to mitigate some of the issues he has had at extended venues since the rough is not as penal here.
Additional Thoughts: You can check out my model to find additional plays I like in this range!
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Adam Schenk ($6,900), Trey Mullinax ($6,800), Vincent Whaley ($6,800)
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