brucegray19722@gmail.com 
Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.
Course – Summit Club
7,459 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bentgrass
We are back in Las Vegas for the second consecutive week, as the PGA Tour will highlight a course never seen before called the ‘Summit Club.’ And while the venue is just two neighborhoods down the road from where I live, it must be noted that this week’s Tom Fazio design is about as exclusive as you can find in this city. Membership to the facility costs $200,000 per year and finding any data has been extremely hard to come by for those attempting to gather information. Luckily, all is not lost since we should be able to make a few guesses on what to expect, so let’s dive into those answers.
One of the things I try to do is figure out what can be proven. That is information like yardage. What is par? What kind of greens are they playing? Those questions start to point us in a general direction that gives us a blueprint of what to look deeper into for the week. That’s the easy way to get an initial idea, but I do think we can take it a step further if we want to jump into the mix. Many course architects will similarly build their properties, and Tom Fazio is one of those designers. When I look at Fazio venues, there are a few courses that I think are decent comps. Shadow Creek is one, which is the Vegas course used last year, and the second would be Caves Valley – won by Patrick Cantlay a few months ago during the BMW Championship. In reality, you can essentially use any Fazio track for reference, but I went through my models to try and find any corollary stats that stood out across the board, and I noticed most were usually nearly identical each time.
Deep-bunkering will surround undulating fairways and greens. Three-putt avoidance typically means something since complexes are large. When you add to the equation that this surface should be fast because of the Vegas heat, it amplifies that notion even further. Distance almost always has some effect with the venues being wide open, and long iron play helps with the length of the shots in front of us. Other small factors are worth a deeper dive, but this is one of the better tracks we could get for having zero data at our disposal.
- Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split between distance over accuracy. I want golfers that can carry and cut off any of the danger along the way.
- Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage (17.5%) – I will always be on the heavier side of things when given a Par-72.
- Weighted Bentrass (15%) – This category incorporates a 50/50 split between SG:Total on Bentgrass and SGl Putting on Bentgrass. The goal is to find who likes the surface and then marginally add putting into the mix so we don’t just get the premier ball-strikers that can’t finish their work.
- SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (12.5%) – ANOTHER POTENTIAL BIRDIE FEST.
- Proximity From 175+ Yards (15%) – That stat was a staple in almost any Fazio design that I looked into
- Three-putt Avoidance + Around The Green (10%) – The breakdown there is 60% three putt and 40% ATG. These are large surfaces that can get dried out because of the Vegas heat, and short game is going to matter with the undulation at the property
- Weighted Bunker Play (12.5%) – The stat is made up of 70% sand save percentage from green side traps and 30% GIR percentage from fairway bunkers. As I just mentiond. Players with distance will be able to cut off the doglegs, so that is why I weighed the green side ones heavier.
High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Dustin Johnson ($11,300) – Dustin Johnson is overpriced because of his Ryder Cup performance, but this is one of those spots where I can live with that notion because there is a chance to leverage his ownership to the field. He ranks inside the top five of my model and has always excelled on these fast bentgrass-type properties where straightforward scoring and distance matter. None of this is to say that we can’t fit in more options from the top, but Johnson is one of only two players in this range that grades as a value when looking at ownership versus rank. The other is the man coming up next.
Rory McIlroy ($10,100) – Rory McIlroy is probably my preferred play when looking at stats and ownership combined. McIlroy can easily be paired with another big gun, or you can even choose to start a lineup with him separately. I don’t think you are required to play anybody in this range if you are trying to get contrarian, but the perception is so poor around the Irishman lately that it is opening up a possibility to get him under the radar. McIlroy ranks as the #1 total driver in my model when I restructured the stats to fit this specific course.
Favorite Cash Play– Justin Thomas ($11,100)
$9,000 Range
Tony Finau ($9,600) – Tony Finau has a ton of statistical data pointing in his favor. He ranks second in strokes gained total at bentgrass properties, including being 19th when just looking at putting on these greens. Finau is a good bunker player and should be able to use his length to take advantage of the wide-open nature.
Cameron Smith ($9,200) – Surprisingly, Cameron Smith is actually the top-ranked golfer in my model. I build my spreadsheet without DraftKings prices being incorporated as any sort of a built-in total towards the weight, but you would be surprised how infrequently this scenario plays itself out of where a low-$9,000 dollar golfer grades as the top player. It did happen for Sungjae last week also, but that was a weaker field. I am speaking more of these star-studded events. I couldn’t tell you the last time I didn’t see Rahm, Cantlay, Thomas, Bryson, Rory, Dustin or Morikawa at the top. I know not all those players are in the field this week, but we do have enough to make it worthwhile that Smith is number one. The Aussie grades second in my weighted bentgrass category, first in par-five scoring and first in weighted bunker play.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,000) – I believe some DFS users might be jumping off the bandwagon too early after Scottie Scheffler’s disastrous showing at TPC Summerlin. Sure, it wasn’t pretty by any stretch of the imagination, but the American is a golfer that succeeds at these easy courses that reward driving. Scheffler’s upside is unquestioned, and the no-cut narrative should ease some tension.
Additional Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($9,500), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) and Abraham Ancer ($9,100) are my three least favorite options in this range.
$8,000 Range
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,400) – Tyrrell Hatton ranks 11th in my model for scoring at short courses and ninth in long iron proximity. This will be GPP-only, but the Englishman has the firepower with his long irons to compete if he can keep his head on straight.
Paul Casey ($8,200) – Paul Casey has gained with his irons in 15 straight starts. OTT in seven of eight. And even though the putter has been ice cold, bentgrass is his best surface. Sometimes you don’t need to look any further than value, and Casey has proven he can pay off his salaries when priced this far down the board. I think he is one of the better values to be found.
Patrick Reed ($8,000) – I think Joel said it best on the live show we do here for Win Daily – “Patrick Reed is mispriced.” It has taken me longer in the week to come around to that realization, but the American is an incredible GPP target that has the upside to win this event. He shouldn’t be sub-five percent owned, and it won’t take much to find yourself overweight.
Other Thoughts: Harris English ($8,900) and Shane Lowry ($8,300) are playable in this range.
$7,000 Range
Joaquin Niemann ($7,400) – My model has Joaquin Niemann correctly priced at $9,100. Niemann ranks third for me in my recreated total driving stat and is also 13th for three-putt avoidance. The numbers are better than the form, as he has gained with his irons in 13 of 16 and off the tee in 10 of his past 12.
Alex Noren ($7,100) – Back-to-back top-10s for Alex Noren in his last two starts. The Swede is a great putter that can go low in these birdie shootouts, and while his proximity numbers might leave something to be desired, I do think his short game can clean up most of those mistakes.
Cameron Tringale ($7,000) – A lack of upside might hurt Cameron Tringale for a birdie shootout, but he is the 40th priced golfer in a field where he is a top-20 candidate. That is good enough for me to play him.
Additional Thoughts: Don’t say Jason Day… Don’t say Jason Day…Don’t say Jason Day…
$6,000 Range
Stewart Cink ($6,500) – Stewart Cink is the biggest advantage I have when looking at ownership versus model rank, and it amplifies when I use Cink’s upside as a weight. The American is sneaky long, and we still are looking at sub-one percent ownership. That is a potential recipe to win large-field GPPs
Carlos Ortiz ($6,200) – Irons have turned around for Carlos Ortiz as of late, gaining in eight of nine starts. His driver has seen a similar trajectory after recording a positive total in six of seven.
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Cameron Davis ($6,400) – Davis didn’t make the main list because of ownership, Matt Jones ($6,300)
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