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DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Justin Thomas ($11,000) – While some in the industry worry about a PGA Championship hangover, I will take the leverage it is creating on Justin Thomas and ride the hot hand. The American has produced 21 straight cuts, and the proximity numbers look stellar in all areas of the board.
Collin Morikawa ($10,700) – I seem to be higher on Collin Morikawa than the offshore markets are this week, as the two-time major winner appears to be an underdog to most of his competitors. With all that being said, there isn’t a golfer in my model that is expected to produce as many birdie opportunities as Morikawa when I run my data, which is good enough for me since he ranks number one by my math from an overall perspective.
Viktor Hovland ($10,000) – Anytime we reduce around the green production, shoot Viktor Hovland up my model. The putting is the one genuine concern, but it might not matter if he takes the Morikawa approach and ball-strikes the venue to death.
Other Considerations – I can’t come up with many negatives about Jordan Spieth ($10,400) other than the ownership. If you want to play him in single-entry and three-max contests, I think that is a perfectly acceptable route to consider.
$9,000 Range
Sam Burns ($9,700) – When I ignore the full range of outcomes possible, Sam Burns ranks as the top win equity player in my model. That is just a fancy way to say he is GPP-only, but the upside is present to create a good amount of leverage on the field in MME contests.
Abraham Ancer ($9,300) – Abraham Ancer has one of the more high-end profiles in this field, ranking eighth in Bentgrass putting, 16th in weighted proximity and seventh in good drive percentage.
Tony Finau ($9,100) – The lack of perceived win equity always comes into play whenever Finau finds himself over $9,000, but the ownership is steady enough at around 13 percent that I am fine taking some of the safety on a golfer that has yielded four top-29 finishes at Colonial since 2017.
Other Targets: Sungjae Im ($9,200) is playable if you want to pivot away from some of the more popular options like Ancer.
$8,000 Range
Webb Simpson ($8,700) – It is Webb week! You can tune into Bettor Golf to hear my full breakdown on him! In fact, you can tune in every week to listen to why he should theoretically win half the events he plays.
Mito Pereira ($8,600) – This is no different from when a sports team falls flat on its face during a primetime game. The general public loves to fade those teams/players during their next outing, which is typically an overcorrection when it takes place. The numbers are still stellar for Mito.
Other Thoughts: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800) – I don’t love the ownership. I would have preferred 10 percent. The same can be said for Kevin Na ($8,100). I am leaning towards being underexposed to both, even though my model likes what it sees from each.
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Justin Rose ($7,700) – Justin Rose is one of my favorite plays on the board when considering his price tag. Thirteenth last week at the PGA Championship and three top-20s at this venue over his previous four attempts, including a win in 2018.
Troy Merritt ($7,300) – I don’t think it is a fluke that Troy Merritt’s top-40 number is -155 on DraftKings and -110 on FanDuel. Compare that to the other options in this range, and you will get a good idea that Merritt is worth the price of admission.
Stewart Cink ($7,100) – My model believes Stewart Cink should have been $8,500 on DraftKings and not $7,100, so give me all the leverage possible. The American is one of the only golfers with no actual red flags across the board – indicated by him being in a group of seven players to rank inside the top-40 for good drive percentage at courses with narrow fairways, weighted proximity to mimic Colonial and weighted putting. The other six were Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Sam Burns and Abraham Ancer.
Additional Thoughts: Harold Varner ($7,800), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600), Rickie Fowler ($7,400), Matthew NeSmith ($7,300), Joel Dahmen ($7,200), Brendon Todd ($7,000)
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Kevin Streelman ($6,800), Lucas Glover ($6,700), Doug Ghim ($6,700), Brandon Wu ($6,500), Austin Smotherman ($6,300), Chez Reavie ($6,300), Luke Donald ($6,000)
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