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I went solo this week for the Bettor Golf Podcast and also was included on the show that went off the rails for the PGA Draftcast. I would highly recommend giving those a listen if you haven’t yet.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Justin Thomas ($10,600) – Justin Thomas has one of the best statical profiles I have seen for a course in a long time, and it is just going to come down to his ability to be near even or better with the flat stick if he wants to get himself across the finish line. The 29-year-old ranks inside the top-five of this field for par-five scoring, par-four average, lengthy courses that require long iron proximity, easy scoring, venues that are not producing wayward drive penalties, windy conditions and sand save percentage, and the putter is always more hit-and-miss than it is good-or-bad at a particular grass type, which might be a positive since he has gained in four of his last six starts. I believe a win could be around the corner, and TPC Craig Ranch highlights the skillset that he brings in spades.
Other Consideration – I would rank the remaining three – 1. Dustin Johnson ($10,200), 2. Jordan Spieth ($10,100) and 3. Scottie Scheffler ($10,900), but all make sense in the right build. I don’t want to talk anyone out of whatever route they prefer.
$9,000 Range
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) – Am I jumping for joy with my Tommy Fleetwood selection? No. But there is leverage to be found for a golfer that has produced six straight finishes inside the top-35. That built-in floor gives us an intriguing cash-game play at his price, and we might be able to get the best of both worlds because of his six percent going rate as of Tuesday night. From a game theory perspective, Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are the three outside-the-box choices to consider from $9,000 and above, and I lean towards Fleetwood or Johnson being the two that I will find myself most overweight on compared to their counterparts.
Other Targets: Xander Schauffele ($9700) – GPP-worthy at sub-10 percent. It is hard to argue against Sam Burns ($9,500) and Will Zalatoris ($9,400), just be aware of roster construction with their ownership totals. And Brooks Koepka (9,200) is worth a small dabble if he remains at two percent
$8,000 Range
Talor Gooch ($8,600) – In my model, Talor Gooch was a climber when looking specifically at Bentgrass putting, and the combination of wind play and success at longer courses is intriguing, especially since off the tee prowess isn’t exactly what he is known for with his game. Still, though, Gooch ranks seventh in this field when condensing the data down to feature tracks over 7,400 yards that require a high percentage of irons from 200+ yards, which is good enough for me to take some chances with him at around 12%.
Jason Kokrak ($8,300) – Jason Kokrak is the #1 Bentgrass putter in this field. High-end returns like that always intrigue me when I can grab a player that is elite in a particular area, even if we are talking about a volatile statistic such as putting.
Aaron Wise ($8,100) – I want to preface this by saying that I don’t love Aaron Wise’s 16 percent going rate, but I also can’t say I disagree with the popularity because of his modest price tag of $8,100. Wise looks to be trending again after a slow start to the year, and his combination of par-five scoring and wind play is an enticing combination for a golfer that grades inside the top-16 in my weighted OTT + APP category.
Other Thoughts: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – Is the ownership too high? Maybe? But the price tag is beautiful. Jason Day ($8,200) – Surprise, surprise. I am all for going back to Day in GPP contests.
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Alex Noren ($7,900) – Quality form + a reasonable price tag of $7,900 makes Alex Noren an option in all game types. I selected him during the PGA Draftcast tonight, and I believe he has a top-25 finish well within his most likely range of outcomes.
Seamus Power ($7,900) – A ninth-place finish at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, Seamus Power enters the week under the radar thanks to his up-and-down form in 2022. I am willing to bet on the upside.
Si Woo Kim ($7,800) – Fourteen straight made cuts during events Si Woo Kim hasn’t withdrawn. That built-in safety is hard to ignore at five percent and $7,800.
Bubba Watson ($7,500) – Maybe this is getting too aggressive, but I will take my swings on Bubba Watson, who looks like a two-percent golfer on this slate. The birdie-making prowess is questionable, but the TPC layout does amplify his chances of finding success.
Matthew Wolff ($7,200), Patrick Rodgers ($7,000) – Neither will be for the faint of heart because of their combustibility, but sub-five percent marks and positive trajectory in upside should be exactly what we are looking for when targeting these lower-priced options with some semblance of win equity to their games.
Additional Thoughts: Maverick McNealy ($7,800) – Ownership is the only drawback. Ryan Palmer ($7,400) – Texas narrative and great wind player. Luke List ($7,300) – Volatile option that has top-10 upside at the price tag. Charles Howell III ($7,200) – CH3 is the largest climber in my model when comparing his Bentgrass putting versus all surfaces.
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: The section doesn’t have a ton. Danny Willet ($6,900) and Pat Perez ($6,700) would be my two preferred targets.
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