brucegray19722@gmail.com 
Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.
PGA West Stadium Course
7,200 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Overseeded Poa
I want to make sure I don’t overcomplicate this process because that might do more harm than good. There will be a ton of strange quirks that we aren’t used to seeing during most stops, which can add some hesitation on the correct way to handle everything in front of us. For me, I am going to try and make as many connections between the three setups this week as I can because that is the only way in my mind to play a tournament that has a 54-hole cut and rotational nature.
The first thing that stuck out to me was that it appears as if the Bermuda grass is dormant at all tracks. If that is the case, it means we will get a Poa overseeded texture. I didn’t use that in my calculations because all the venues are easy, but let’s instead talk about what numbers I did find pertinent to my research process. All three courses are under 7,200 yards. That places them inside the 15 shortest on tour. We also see all three rank inside the bottom-15 in difficulty — that is just another way of saying they are straightforward. There is only so much we can do from a statistical perspective to get unique, but here is how I ended up weighing my model.
- Total Driving (25%) – We have seen accuracy guys like Ancer find success here in the past, which is why it is being added to the equation, but I still believe distance over accuracy is the way to go because it does take away so many of the potential problems. That ended up being a 65/35 split to get total driving.
- GIR Percentage Out Of Fairway Bunkers(10%) – If golfers do miss the fairways, it likely will leave them in these extensive fairway bunkers.
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%) -Golfers will get 16 chances to score on those holes across the three stops, and it has been the most indicative category to finding success of anything we get this week.
- Easy Scoring Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) – Birdie makers that can find success at the venue. It is as simple as that.
- Weighted Par-Three (10%) – I condensed it to par-three average and bogey avoidance. You could get deeper with it and include proximity ranges, but I bypassed both. Maybe that is the incorrect mindset, but when you get courses as easy as these three, some of that almost burdens a model when you say a poor putter or bad proximity player can’t find a recipe for success. Those two stats aren’t exactly the most predictive in many ways.
- Strokes Gained Total On Easy Courses Under 7,200 (25%) – Categories like this combine all three tracks and give us an easily identified blueprint.
- Strokes Gained Total On Pete Dye (10%) – That only applies to the Stadium Course, but once again, that is where 50% of the rounds will take place.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Jon Rahm ($11,300) – Joel said it best on our Win Daily Show on Tuesday night, “You could make Jon Rahm $12,500, and it would be acceptable.” Let’s see where the ownership goes, but there is no reason he should be this close in price to the likes of Scottie Scheffler or as close in popularity as he is to Patrick Cantlay. Rahm is the best player in every field but is especially strong in a tournament that drops off like the American Express.
Tony Finau ($10.200) – Is the price tag a little high? Sure. But it has created quite the leverage spot for Tony Finau, who might end up being the lowest owned player above $9,000 this week. Finau has posted two top-14s in his stops to the event since 2020.
Other Consideration – Scottie Scheffler does grade third in my model. I have some concerns, but this is the kind of course we would anticipate him finding success.
$9,000 Range
Talor Gooch ($9,700) – The price and ownership might be problematic to some, but I wouldn’t let it affect my decision-making. Gooch is priced where he should be for the week, and I think we need to start accepting that this could be who he is as a player moving forward.
Other Targets: Matthew Wolff, Will Zalatoris (GPPs) – Sungjae Im is in play for all game types
$8,000 Range
Justin Rose ($8,600) – Justin Rose ranks inside the top-10 on easy courses and also has been a Pete Dye specialist throughout his career. I have an outright ticket on him at 55/1.
Si Woo Kim ($8,300) – Pete Dye specialist? Check. Good on short courses? Check. I haven’t given up hope that Si Woo Kim turns everything around very shortly.
Carlos Ortiz ($8,200) – @StixPicks has ‘Hammer Kid’ locked Carlos Ortiz to come top-40. I have never seen him lose on a selection like that, which is good enough for me to roll with Ortiz in all game types this week.
Other Thoughts: Rickie Fowler ($8,500), Alex Noren ($8,400), Jhonattan Vegas ($8,100) are all in play for GPPs.
$7,000 Range
Jason Day ($7,300) – Perhaps my favorite play above $7,000 on DraftKings this week is Jason Day. The problem with me saying this is that I have cried wolf for three straight years that every tournament was the Day show, even when he wasn’t in the field. Hence, why it might lose some of its luster after a while, but this is legitimately one of the first times that it isn’t just an act on my part. It kind of goes with what I have been saying about the model mimicking DraftKings pricing to a T, and then you get this massive deviation here with Day, who ranks 9th for me on my model. The Aussie is the number one golfer on short courses since 2018 – a time frame that does include the bad version of himself. I am legitimately encouraged by his potential this time around.
Additional Thoughts: K.H. Lee ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,700), Taylor Moore ($7,300)
$6,000 Range
J.T. Poston ($6,400) – Three top-37s to go along with two missed cuts since 2017. Part of the reason for his success is the par-five scoring. He ranks inside the top-30 in this field
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Davis RIley $6,800, Dylan Frittelli $6,800
If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.
