Every wise DFS player checks the weather before anything else and that’s particularly imperative at this time of the year. Two postponements yesterday shows just how ugly the forecasts have been recently and we have plenty more rain on this slate. In fact, over half of these games have projected rain in the forecast and that’s simply a disaster for us fantasy owners. While we don’t have the best idea of what will happen 24 hours from now, the cities and states you need to keep an eye on are as followed: New York, Minnesota, Washington, Chicago, Kansas City, Texas and Philly.
If you have any comments or questions, write me here or reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.
Catcher:
J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. DET
DK ($4,500) FD ($3,200)
When picking catchers, I either pay up or punt the position. For this slate, it’s hard to fade a stud like Realmuto in such a quality matchup. What we really like about him here is the fact that he gets the platoon advantage against southpaw Daniel Norris. The lefties’ numbers are just awful, with Norris posting a 1.58 WHIP to go along with a .385 wOBA. His 3.93 ERA makes him look like he’s not too bad but his 5.31 FIP shows the sort of pitcher he’s truly been. All that puts the Phillies in play for a stack, as they’re projected to score five runs in their friendly home park. That’s why we love Realmuto and he’ll be right in the heart of this order.
Also Consider: Wilson Ramos is too good to be priced at $3,600 on DK and he shouldn’t have too many issues opposing Anthony DeSclafani.
First Base:
Jose Abreu, CWS vs. BAL
DK ($5,000) FD ($4,100)
Abreu might be my favorite play on the board, as he’s one of the hottest hitters in the majors right now. Over the last eight games. Abreu is 17-for-35 at the plate while collecting five doubles, two homers, six runs and 14 RBI. That’s impossible production to argue with, especially considering he probably gets the best matchup on the board. In fact, Davis Hess owns a .439 xwOBA, which is simply one of the worst marks in the majors.
Also Consider: Rhys Hoskins is pricey but he’s definitely worth considering against lefty Daniel Norris.
Second Base:
Jose Altuve, HOU vs. MIN
DK ($4,500) FD ($4,200)
Stacking Astros is going to be one of the best strategies on this slate, as they have too many righties for Martin Perez to navigate through. Perez has traditionally struggled with right-handed batters throughout his career, allowing a .318 AVG and an OPS approaching .900 over the last three years. That’s just what Altuve is looking for, as he enters this matchup in the midst of a 3-for-33 stretch. That terrible slump has lowered Altuve’s price to a number that we simply can’t fade, as he should be able to snap it here. So far this season, Altuve owns a 1.288 OPS against southpaws and many of those guys were way better than Perez.
Also Consider: Adam Frazier has been batting atop the Pirates order and should have success in a hitter’s park like Globe Life against a gas can like Shelby Miller.
Third Base:
Travis Shaw, MIL vs. COL
DK ($3,600) FD ($2,500)
After a few high-end options, let’s go with a value play here. Shaw got off to a terrible start this season, but his power upside is hard to argue with. This is a guy who had at least 30 homers in back-to-back seasons while posting a .240 ISO in both those years. That power appears to be resurfacing recently, with Shaw hitting three homers and one double over his last seven games. Getting the platoon advantage against Antonio Senzatela is simply the icing on the cake, with Shaw posting a .522 SLG and .877 OPS against right-handers over the last three years.
Also Consider: Yuli Gurriel is incredibly cheap on both sites and gets the platoon advantage against Perez. Yoan Moncada is one of the biggest breakouts in the league and gets that brilliant matchup against Hess.
Shortstop:
Carter Kieboom, WSH vs. STL
DK ($3,800) FD ($3,200)
Kieboom is one of the most touted prospects in the majors right now and early results are extremely promising. While his average has been lacking, Kieboom has two homers in his first four games. That really should be no surprise when you consider the fact that Kieboom posted a .258 ISO and .485 wOBA in the minors this season. Those are MVP-type peripherals and it shows just how much potential this kid has. Facing Miles Mikolas is not scary either, as his 6.04 FIP and 16.7 percent K-rate are numbers we want to exploit.
Also Consider: If you’re stacking Astros righties against Perez, it’s hard to overlook Carlos Correa.
Outfielders:
George Springer, HOU vs. MIN
DK ($5,200) FD ($4,200)
Springer makes a beautiful two-man stack with Altuve, as I expect these guys to run rampant around the bases. Perez’ aforementioned splits speak for itself, as Springer should benefit by batting from the right side. He’s actually hot though, as Springer is averaging more than 10 DK points per game for the season while posting an OPS just shy of .900. Just like Altuve, Springer has made minced meat of southpaws throughout his career. In fact, Springer is posting a .906 OPS against lefties dating back to 2016.
J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. OAK
DK ($4,900) FD ($4,000)
It’s strange not to see Martinez as one of the five-highest priced hitters, as he’s easily one of the top bats in the game. His .929 OPS speaks loudly but his peripherals indicate he should be even better. In fact, Martinez is one of the league leaders with a .448 xwOBA and a .648 xSLG. Those are absurd numbers and it simply means he’s hitting the crap out of the ball right now. Facing Mike Fiers should benefit any hitter too, as his 7.03 ERA and 1.51 WHIP says a lot about his recent struggles.
Gregory Polanco, PIT at TEX
DK ($4,300) FD ($3,000)
Polanco is a personal favorite of mine and I believe this is the sort of matchup where he can get going. Hitting in Globe Life is a huge reason why, considering that ballpark ranks as the second-best hitter’s park in the majors. Getting to face a weak righty is huge too, with Polanco posting an .840 OPS against right-handers over the last two years. Shelby Miller is a righty we want to exploit, as his .419 xwOBA is a good indicator of his 7.52 ERA and 2.07 WHIP.
Also Consider: Mookie Betts has all the same advantages as Martinez but is actually a little bit cheaper. If you’re looking for someone below $4,000, Franmil Reyes has one of the highest xwOBA’s in the league and gets the platoon advantage against Max Fried. Not to mention, both of these guys combined for three dingers on Tuesday.
