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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7, Thursday Night Football. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
NYG +4.5TBD-1050.3
Darius Slayton O52.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.4
Greg Ward O32.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.8
DeSean Jackson O34.5 Rec ydsDraftKings-1340.5
Greg Ward O3.5 RecDraftKings-1121.1

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 6. What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
N’Keal Harry O37.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1101
Devonta Freeman U60.5 Rush ydsPointsBet-1151.1
Preston Williams O38.5 Rec ydsFanDuel-1151.6
David Montgomery O60.5 Rush ydsPointsBet-1151
Marquez Valdes-Scantling O41.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1101.1
Anthony Miller O28.5 Rec YdsDraftKings-1120.6
Miles Sanders O26.5 Rec ydsDraftKings-1180.5
Gregg Ward O37.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.6
Marvin Jones Jr O45.5 Rec YdsPointsBet-1150.5
Zach Pascal O34.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1101
Randall Cobb O41.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1150.75
Damiere Byrd O38.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.7
Gardner Minshew U287.5 P YdsDraftKings-1180.8
Teddy Bridgwater O259.5 P YdsFanDuel-1101

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Tuesday… yes, Tuesday Night Football! Hopefully you all enjoyed the clean sweep of Prop Bets last night! What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
Devin Singletary O19.5 Rec YdsDraftKings-1120.7
Kalif Raymond O37.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.4
Kalif Raymond O2.5 RecFanDuel-1021.2

Also, keep an eye on the WinDailySports NFL tab on the website this week. I’m extremely excited to announce the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool that is going to be an extreme asset to our daily fantasy and sports betting toolset.

People always value Implied Team Totals from Vegas that factor in field goals and minimal things that do not impact daily fantasy… the new Adjusted Expected Team Totals are STRICTLY for skill position touchdown weights. You can’t roster kickers on your main slate lineups, so why would you care about numbers that factor in kickers? You shouldn’t. LFG!

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Thursday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
Darnell Mooney O37.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.5

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

0 comments
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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say). It’s NFL Prop Bets szn.

NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 4 Plays

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
Teddy Bridgewater O270.5P YdsFanDuel-1100.5
Robby Anderson O56.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.5
Lamar Jackson O209.5 P YdsFanDuel-1101
Lamar Jackson O18.5 P CmpDraftKings+1100.5
Russel WIlson U295.5 P YdsFanDuel-1100.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick O23.5 CmpDraftKings1000.5
Dak Prescott U320.5 P YdsPoints Bet+1051
Jarvis Landry O56.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.5
Philip Rivers O222.5 P YdsDraftKings-1120.5
Zach Pascal O41.5 Rec TdsDraftKings-1120.5
Dalvin Cook O78.5 Rush YDsBetRivers-1120.5
Latavius Murray 2TDsBetRivers+15000.5
Ronald Jones U68.5 Rush YdsBetRivers-1120.5
OJ Howard O23.5 Rec YdsBetRivers-1120.75
Jared Goff U280.5 P YdsFanDuel-1100.5
Evan Engram O42.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.5
Derek Carr U275.5 P YdsBetRivers-1301
Stefon Diggs O64.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.75
Jonathan Taylor 2TDsFanDuel+5500.5

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed Weeks One, Two, and Three… and will continue to do so this week! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.


*This week, due to crazy amounts of work and late week cancellations/injuries, I’m just going to list out the players I have interest in. Be sure to tune in to the Sunday NFL Livestream tomorrow morning at 11AM EST for further explanations*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

  • DeShaun Watson – Great for cash, great for GPPs. He’s going to be popular, but we’ve been picking on this Minnesota defense all season long. No need to stop now.
  • Josh Allen – not much to say, he’s been going nuts and this Las Vegas defense does not scare me away from Allen at all. I do question Vegas’ ability to keep this one close, but Allen is always in play.
  • Matthew Stafford – there’s simply no one healthy in this New Orleans’ secondary. Lattimore and Jenkins are both out and somehow that leads to PJ Williams being their top corner. Yikes.
  • Kyler Murray – Everyone wanted to jam him in last week but now no one is playing him against 28th ranked defense in pass defense DVOA?
  • Joe Burrow – Zac Taylor’s offense throws the ball over 45 times a game… Jacksonville is ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. All of the Bengals pass-catchers are healthy. Let’s go Joe for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

    Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins

Running Backs

  • Alvin Kamara – don’t care about his ownership. The dude is the only offensive weapon on this New Orleans’ offense posting a 7.5 reception prop… That’s wonderful. It’s hard to fade this guy in any lineup.
  • Dalvin Cook – On the other side of Houston stacks, it makes a lot of sense to roster the lead back in one of the most potent running schemes in the NFL.
  • Nick Chubb – Not sure this game actually shoots out at all. Chubb is always in my player pool… even more so if Hunt misses this game.
  • Josh Jacobs – The Raiders don’t have many other weapons healthy in this offense right now. Jacobs’ workload is likely to be second to nobody against the Bills’ defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA.
  • Jonathan Taylor – I mention it every week, you can run all over Chicago. Taylor’s price is in an awkward spot with Henderson and Drake below him, but I’ll have a lineup or two with Taylor.
  • Darrell Henderson Jr. – 13-point home favorite. The Giants have actually been rather stout against the run, but with no Akers, I’ll trust the talent and the Vegas numbers.
  • Kenyan Drake – he’s a running back going up against the Panthers… don’t get too cute and forget about him.

    Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary

Wide Receivers

  • DeAndre Hopkins – Ownership projections for ~5%? I know he’s questionable, but if he’s a go tomorrow, you’ll need some Hopkins.
  • DK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett – they’re the top WRs on this slate in a cake matchup.
  • Mike Evans – Always interested in a sub-10% owned Mike Evans. Chris Godwin is out, so Evans should be heavily relied on.
  • Kenny Golladay – see Stafford writeup.
  • Jarvis Landry
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • Will Fuller / Brandin Cooks / Randall Cobb – see writeup on Watson.
  • Tyler Boyd / AJ Green
  • Justin Jefferson
  • Hunter Renfrow

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

  • Mark Andrews
  • Mike Gesicki
  • Logan Thomas
  • Evan Engram

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups! Make sure to tune into the Livestream for in-depth reviews of each game and all of the plays above.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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Hopefully everyone enjoyed ANOTHER huge week of cashing in Week 3 NFL DFS Cash Games! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS Cash Games lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 4, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries. There are a ton of great value plays at QB/WR/RB, but TE is getting slim. There should be a lot of different optimal builds this weekend.
  • Looks like a safe week for your Quarterback. Don’t get too cute when Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Murray, Allen, Watson, and Wilson are all on the same slate.
  • It’s Alvin Kamara chalk week – MUST PLAYS in cash games
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Games Quaterbacks

  1. Russell Wilson ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Another week of backing Russell Wilson. The dude is on another planet right now and the model likes him (as everyone’s does this week). Wilson has a whole boatload of weapons at his disposal and faces up against a brutal pass defense (25th in pass defense DVOA) with Miami.

    Regardless of Miami’s ability to keep it close, Wilson is going to have a solid floor. He’s quite pricey though…
    AETY Projection: 25.38 points
  2. Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD) – It’s Patrick Mahomes and he’s not the most expensive (or the second most expensive) quarterback on the slate. No need to dive into this one in great detail.
    AETY Projection: 23.50 points

  3. Josh Allen ($7,300 / $8,600 FD) – I don’t know when Josh Allen is not going to be in play this year. Similar to Wilson, Josh Allen is a man on a mission this season and offers DFS players one of the highest floors in NFL DFS Cash Games. Ride him against this Las Vegas secondary.
    AETY Projection: 23.03 points
  4. Kyler Murray ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – He’s damn near a running back and goes up against the 28th ranked pass defense DVOA in Carolina. There aren’t many safer plays than Murray on a weekly basis.
    AETY Projection: 24.02 points
  5. DeShaun Watson ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – I’ve talked about this Minnesota secondary (or lack thereof) on a weekly basis every week this season as one of the best matchups for opposing quarterbacks. Fire up Watson in this smash spot in a must-win game for a motivated Houston team at home. The rushing upside paired with the matchup make this price-point the best value at the QB position.
    AETY Projection: 24.32 points

    Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

  1. Alvin Kamara ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Over 40% of the field is going to roster Alvin Kamara in cash games this weekend. There’s absolutely no reason to fade that in cash. Hell, it’s hard to fade him in GPPs.

    Update: NO MICHAEL THOMAS = MORE KAMARA. Lock him in for cash games.
    AETY Projection: 25.27 DK / 22.18 FD
  2. Joe Mixon ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD) – Good lord the price on Joe Mixon is way too low. I get that he hasn’t done much at all this season, but he’s still Joe Mixon. Mixon finally received over 70% of the snaps last week (Ghost and I called that on the Livestream… boom) but the production hasn’t shown up yet. Mixon is likely in for a big game soon and at this price and chalk-ownership, lock him into your cash game lineup.
    AETY Projection: 17.81 DK / 16.57 FD


    Injury concerns
  3. Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD) – Hello, my boy, Dalvin Cook. Thank you for the points last week! The AETY Model really likes Dalvin Cook again this week as you can run all over the Texans who rank 24th in run defense DVOA. Pair that with a Gary Kubiak outside-zone running scheme and you’re in for another big day.
    AETY Projection: 23.01 DK / 21.32 FD
  4. Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – We always lock in the RB1 against the Panthers. Week in, week out, it is the nuts matchup and I don’t see that changing this week. If your build can afford him, use him. Reminder: don’t pair him up with Kyler Murray in cash.
    AETY Projection: 18.01 DK / 16.90 FD
  5. David Johnson ($5,600 DK / $6,700 FD) – Everything about Minnesota’s defense is dreadful and we need some value on this slate. I’m not in love with anything in David Johnson’s game, but he offers us salary relief and a decent floor in PPR with all of the pass catching. I don’t see either defenses being able to stop one another, so DJ should have a solid workload. I don’t love it, but he’s in play for cash.
    AETY Projection: 17.49 DK / 15.96 FD
  6. Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – If Cam Akers is out, I’ll certainly have some interest in Henderson at home as a 13-point favorite. We don’t need to get too deep here, that’s a great spot for home-favorite running backs.
    AETY Projection: 15.31 DK / 14.16 FD

    Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Ezekiel Elliott, Devin Singletary (lock in cash if Moss is out), Myles Gaskin, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, Carlos Hyde (if Carson is out)

Wide Receivers

  1. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – Super expensive, but always in play for cash games with this target share. I probably cannot afford him in NFL DFS Cash Games, but I won’t tell you not to use him.
    AETY Projection: 20.96 DK / 16.75 FD
  2. DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $6,900 FD) / Tyler Lockett ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – They are both in absolute smash spots against Miami’s secondary in a game with a total over 54 points. I’m likely to ride with Metcalf due to the price savings, but they’re both in incredible spots.
    Metcalf AETY Projection: 18.25 DK / 15.42 FD
    Lockett AETY Projection: 19.38 DK / 15.81 FD
  3. DJ Moore ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD) – He’s simply way too cheap on DraftKings in a game with a total of 51 points and a gamescript where the Panthers should be chasing points. I’m not worried about this Arizona secondary whatsoever. Carolina is a pass-first offense and Moore is being fed with targets on a weekly basis. He’s likely everyone’s pay-down receiver in cash games.
    AETY Projection: 17.37 DK / 14.21 FD
  4. Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – This Dallas secondary is in absolute shambles. Literally every wide receiving core is tearing them to shreds. I know Cleveland is one of the best run offenses in the NFL, but there will be plenty to go around for Beckham against Dallas corners’ Jourdan Lewis, Daryl Worley, and Trevon Diggs.
    AETY Projection: 16.82 DK / 13.42 FD

    *If Odell misses this game or is limited in any capacity, Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) is certainly in play.
  5. Kenny Golladay ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – This is the cheapest we’ll ever see Golladay again, so I’m likely to jam him in my cash game lineup. Allen Lazard and banged up Green Bay pass catchers just torched this New Orleans secondary. This is a matchup we used to fear, but this defense is not what it used to be.

    UPDATE: Janoris Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore both OUT. Advantage Golladay.
    AETY Projection: 15.46 DK / 12.76 FD
  6. Tyler Boyd ($6,100 DK / $6,000 FD) – Always in for rostering Tyler Boyd in NFL DFS Cash Games. The price hiked up a bit from last week when we smashed him into our GPP lineups, but the matchup is just as pristine this week against DJ Hayden on the inside of Jacksonville’s secondary.
    AETY Projection: 13.65 DK / 10.90 FD
  7. Hunter Renfrow ($4,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – They literally have no one else healthy besides Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones. Renfrow is really only in play for DraftKings with the full-point PPR setup, but you all know how much I love to pick on Buffalo’s slot-corner, Taron Johnson.

    Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Justin Jefferson, AJ Green, Zach Pascal, Preston Williams

Tight Ends

  1. Travis Kelce ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Best pass-catching tight-end in football. Play him if you can afford him.
    AETY Projection: 16.58 DK / 13.79 FD
  2. Hunter Henry ($4,600 DK / $6,100 FD) – No idea why he’s priced under $5K. This one looks like a layup with the rapport Henry and Herbert have showed us thus far.
    AETY Projection: 12.59 DK / 10.07 FD
  3. Logan Thomas ($3,500 DK / $4,900 FD) – Washington is going to be chasing points early and often in this game against Baltimore. Tight ends have had a lot of success against Baltimore this season and you know we’re likely to need salary relief this week. Logan is an excellent punt-play for NFL DFS Cash Games.
    AETY Projection: 10.07 DK / 7.97 FD

    Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. Baltimore Ravens
  3. Indianapolis Colts
  4. Cincinatti Bengals
  5. Tampa Bay Bucs

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: DeShaun Watson
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Mike Davis
WR: Kenny Golladay
WR: DK Metcalf
WR: Hunter Renfrow
TE: Logan Thomas
FLEX: Darrell Henderson Jr.
DST: Bengals

Good luck to all!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Thursday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
Tim Patrick O29.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.5
Brett Rypien O204.5 P YdsFanDuel-1101

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets… It’s time to let her shine! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 3 Plays

Team/PlayerSportsbookLineUnit Risk
Carson Wentz U270.5 P YdsFanDuel-1100.5
AJ Green O53.5 Rec YdsBetRivers1001
David Montgomery O14.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.5
James Conner O68.5 Rush YdsBetRivers-1121
David Montgomery O54.5 Rush YdsFanDuel-1101
Chris Godwin O58.5 Rec YdsBetRivers-1121
Dionate Johnson U63.5 Rec YdsFanDuel10.5
Terry McLaurin O58.5 Rec YdsPointsBet-1251
Odell Beckham O55.5 Rec YdsBetRivers-1121
Larry Fitzgerald O54.5 Rec YdsBetRivers-1061
Chris Godwin O5.5 RecBetRivers+1200.5
Evan Engram O4.5 RecBetRivers-1120.5
Zach Ertz O4.5 RecBetRivers+1251

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed Weeks One and Two and will continue to do so this week. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

*Obviously, Russell Wilson/Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray are in absolute smash spots. I don’t need to write them up. I’m much higher on Russell, but both are in play. Russell is probably my favorite of the three and I’m likely to be under-weight on both Kyler and Dak*

  1. Cam Newton ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD) – All hail, King Newton in Week 3… more on Newton in the Cash Game Checkdown. He’s coming off of a tough loss on the road in Seattle and will look to absolutely light up this Las Vegas defense. These corners can’t contain Edelman/Harry/Byrd and Newton will also do a lot of damage via the run.

    My ONLY CONCERN is Las Vegas’ ability to keep this game close and up-paced. Under 10% in ownership… I’ll take that risk. You can run him out naked or stack him up with one or two of the below:

    Potential Stacks:
    Edelman/Harry
    Edelman/Byrd
    Byrd/Harry

  2. Joe Burrow ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – Burrow’s ownership is coming in at under 2% right now and that alone is enough for me to be interested in Burrow. With or without Darius Slay, this Philadelphia secondary is well below average (ranking 27th in Pass Defense DVOA) and Zac Taylor’s up-paced offense should bode well in this spot.

    We all know Miles Sanders is good-chalk, so why not get some exposure to the other side of the ball here. This is a sneaky, up-paced game stack as a whole.

    Potential Stacks:
    – Boyd/Green
    – Boyd/Sample
    – Sample/Green
    – Mixon/Boyd
    – Mixon/Green

    Potential Game Stacks:
    – Burrow/Boyd/Sanders
    – Burrow/Boyd/Sanders/Ertz (or Goeddert)
    – Burrow/Boyd/Green/Sanders/Ertz (or Goeddert)


    Honestly, there’s so many variations of this game you can stack up. I’m in on Joe Burrow.
  3. Ben Roethlisberger ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – I’m not super high on using Big Ben, but this matchup is absolutely pristine. He’s due for a classic 300 yard passing game with 4 touchdowns and this may be the spot. I’m very interested in this Pittsburgh offense from multiple angles as you’ll read a bit later.

    Potential Stacks:
    – JuJu/Diontae
    – JuJu/Ebron
    – Diontae/Ebron
    – Conner/JuJu
    – Conner/Diontae

  4. Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too expensive on FanDuel but a nice salary relief on DraftKings. This is the nuts matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Feel free to read the cash game article for more on Trubisky.

    Potential Stacks:
    – Robinson/Miller
    – Robinson/Mooney
    – Robinson/Graham
    – Robinson/Montgomery

    My personal preference is just using Robinson, but this matchup is sexy for all Chicago pass-catchers.

    Honorable Mention: Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Tom Brady

Running Backs

  1. Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – Dalvin Cook is coming in at under 5% in ownership?! With no Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Edwards-Helaire on this slate, HOW THE HELL are people not interested in Dalvin Cook?

    Tennessee just got shredded on the ground against James Robinson… Kubiak is going to smash this Titans’ defense on the ground. Dalvin Cook is currently (-170) to score a touchdown, which only trails Derrick Henry (-200) and Ezekiel Elliott (-220). Get you some Dalvin Cook this week in your NFL DFS GPP!
  2. James Conner ($6,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – I mentioned earlier my love for the Steelers’ offense this week and it starts with James Conner. Houston has been getting throttled (24th in run defense DVOA) by opposing running backs and a healthy James Conner is likely to do the same. If he stays around 5% ownership, jam him in.
  3. Austin Ekeler ($6,800 DK / $7,500 FD) / Joshua Kelley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – The worst ranked run defense in the NFL is going up against one of the heaviest run-offenses in the NFL… Yet, Ekeler’s ownership is ~5% on DraftKings and Kelley’s is ~10% in this week’s NFL DFS GPP. What’s going on this week? What am I missing? They’re giving up 3 rushing touchdowns per game, lol.
  4. David Montgomery ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – I’m loving that I’m seeing Montgomery more active in the passing-game and becoming a true, three-down running back. At this price, we don’t need a whole lot out of Montgomery to hit 3x value. I’m not in love with him this weekend, but we’ll need some salary relief and he offers that in a plus-matchup against Atlanta.

    Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jeff Wilson, Darrell Henderson, D’Andre Swift

Wide Receivers

**I do not need to write-up Seattle and Dallas wide receivers. They are all in incredible spots and you are likely going to want 1 of them (minimum) in every lineup you make this weekend**

  1. Julian Edelman ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) / N’Keal Harry ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – See Cam’s write-up for why I love these Patriots’ wide receivers. Trayvon Muller, Lamarcus Joyner, and Damon Arnette are arguably the worst cornerback trio in the AETY Model. Both Edelman and Harry have a massive target share and get plenty of looks in the red-zone.

    If Cam Newton doesn’t run all of the touchdowns in himself, Harry and Edelman are in for big games. Let’s just hope the Raiders can keep this one close and get the pace moving.
  2. Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD ) – See cash game article for more notes. Absolute best matchup on the slate with Isaiah Oliver being the “top” cornerback for Atlanta, now that A.J. Terrell is out with Covid-19.
  3. Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Ronald Darby and Fabian Moreau? Odell should will run circles around these cornerbacks. I always pick on Darby, but this is more-so about the lack of ownership on Odell Beckham Jr. who’s seeing ~34% of the Cleveland target share. If Odell Beckham Jr. went crazy and broke this slate, would it truly surprise anyone?

    He’s too cheap for the upside he offers in this matchup.
  4. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – Simply an easy pivot off of Diontae Johnson chalk week. JuJu is in the same matchup against Houston’s awful defense, yet he’s going to come in under 5% in ownership…
  5. Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – Godwin is back to 100% health after passing concussion protocol. We picked on this rookie slot-cornerback last week with JuJu and didn’t see a whole lot of success due to the gamescript, but I’m going back to the well here as Tampa is likely to beat Denver through the air. Godwin is arguably the best slot receiver in football right now and has a ~4-inch height advantage over Essang Bassey. He’s going to be sub-5% owned.
  6. Corey Davis ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – Where the hell are all the people who rostered Corey Davis last week? This is the best matchup on earth for Davis against a Minnesota secondary (that has been awful) who just lost Mike Hughes. Holton Hill is going to cover Mike Davis? Sign me up. I don’t understand how the field isn’t all over this salary-saving wide receiver, in a game total at 50-points. Use him on the other side of Dalvin Cook.
  7. Darius Slayton ($4,900 DK / $5,500 FD) – Just a conviction play for me this week. With Sterling Shepard out and virtually everyone out for this San Francisco 49ers’ defense, Slayton should be in for a massive breakout game.
  8. Larry Fitzgerald ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – While everyone goes to Kyler/Drake/D-Hop, where is the love for Larry Fitzgerald? Christian Kirk is out for this game and Larry Fitzgerald offers us some extremely cheap exposure to one of the most popular games on the slate (at sub-5% ownership).

    Vegas books are posting a 5.5 receptions prop for Larry Fitzgerald and that’s music to my ears. The AETY Model happens to love the value of Fitzgerald as well for NFL DFS GPPs. It’s not sexy, but I’ll have a lot of Larry Fitzgerald.

    Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Keenan Allen, DeSean Jackson, Michael Pittman Jr.

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

  1. Evan Engram ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Same situation as Darius Slayton above. Engram is an extremely talented player and should own the target share this week with no Shepard and Barkley. Again, there is no one healthy on this 49ers’ defense.
  2. Hayden Hurst ($4,700 DK / $5,700 FD) – With or without Julio Jones, I’m very interested in a sub-10% Hayden Hurst. He’s priced extremely affordable at a position that is just not very sexy this week, not to mention this offensive scheme bodes extremely well for its’ tight-end. If the Bears’ pass-rush can bring it, Matt Ryan will have to get rid of it quickly and Hayden Hurst should be the benefactor of those situations.
  3. Noah Fant ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD) – He’s quite cheap on FanDuel and very affordable on DraftKings. Fant is one of my favorite GPP tight-ends in my lineups that have Chris Godwin. There aren’t many tight-ends as talented as Noah Fant and the targets are going to be there as they likely play catch-up all day long. He’s going to be under 2% owned.

    Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goeddert

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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