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Stix Picks: Week 14 NFL DFS GPP

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 14 NFL DFS GPP slate! What a week last week for those who rode the Justin Herbert train with us! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.

It’s a rather condensed player pool for me this week. There are a lot of low-total games and then a couple higher-total games with great fantasy players all around. I’ll be focusing most of my energy there. Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

LVR/KC
BUF/TB
DAL/WAS

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

This article will be quite similar to the cash game article in terms of quarterbacks I’m interested in rostering. As mentioned, I want to invest heavily in Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense as a whole against the Raiders’ and their dead-last blitz rate. Mahomes has certainly struggled this year but his splits against the Raiders are ridiculous (400+ yards and 5 touchdowns last meeting) and he’ll likely carve them up again at home this weekend. If you’re going to give Mahomes a clean pocket, he’s going to make plays with both his arm and legs. Now, all of that and a 5% ownership projection… let’s roll.

Key Pairing(s): Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Key Run-back(s): Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Foster Moreau, Zay Jones (0% owned punt)

Josh Allen ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD)

We’re not getting the ownership reduction in Josh Allen like we are with Patrick Mahomes, but he’s still likely to finish outside of the top-three in NFL DFS GPP QB ownership (Taysom Hill, Cam Newton, and Tom Brady leading the pack). There’s not a game on this slate with a game total higher than 48.5 points besides this shootout in Tampa Bay, where the total sits at 54 points. Five and a half points higher than the next closest total, lol.

To no surprise, the AETY Model projects Tom Brady and Josh Allen to lead this slate in passing attempts (by a wide margin). You can’t really run on Tampa and Buffalo can’t really run on anybody so I expect Josh Allen to have to win this game with his arm and his rushing upside. If Buffalo can keep this competitive, this is a ceiling game in the making for Allen. Tom Brady on the other side is always in play, but will likely be one of the more popular options on this slate.

Key Pairing(s): Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox
Key Run-back(s): Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski

Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD)

Incredible savings for the Cowboys’ signal caller who faces the 30th ranked pass defense (DVOA) in what is projected to be a close game. With Tony Pollard likely to miss this game and Ezekiel Elliott not looking like himself since re-injuring his knee, the Cowboys offense in theory will need to run through Dak Prescott. Another stud quarterback with rushing touchdown equity at 5% ownership.

Key Pairing(s): CeeDee Lamb
Key Run-back(s): Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson

I absolutely love this slate at the surface. Everything aligns rather well with my mental bias and the AETY Model, cash game builds and GPP builds. Usually, when this happens, it’s a dangerous week for the Win Daily Team. Just look at the Adjusted Expected Team Totals Tool below… we are locked in on the Model’s top offenses.

Week 14 Adjusted Expected Team Totals from Win Daily Sports

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD)

It really blows my mind Jacobs is coming in 50% less in projected ownership than Antonio Gibson. How many times do we need to see this Kansas City defense struggle to stop the run? There’s no Kenyan Drake. There’s no Jalen Richard. Sure, we may see a little Peyton Barber to spell Josh Jacobs, but Jacobs is not going to leave the field in any gamescript on Sunday. As mentioned in the cash article, Jacobs is an elite core play for me on Sunday in what should be a high scoring affair.

Saquon Barkley ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD)

Barkley up against the 32nd run defense (DVOA) at 8-10% ownership while Antonio Gibson at that same price and in a tougher matchup will likely be closer to 30% in ownership. I do like Gibson, don’t get me wrong, but the 5-catch floor and ultimate upside of Saquon Barkley at the same price makes this an easy decision for me in NFL DFS GPP lineups where I have to choose one or the other.

JaMychal Hasty ($4,000 DK / $4,700 FD)

While everyone and their brother goes to play a chalky Jeff Wilson, I’m going to be interested in a San Francisco running back that can actually run through a gap in Shanahan’s outside zone running scheme. Jeff Wilson is trash and has not been the same since his numerous knee injuries (he’s averaging 2.7 yards per carry while all other SF backs are averaging 4.5 yards per carry)… this is an easy fade for me. Can he score two TD’s and help the chalk donkeys find a way to the pay-line? Yes, but I’ll play the fade here and just pray he doesn’t get in the box while he rushes 16-18 times for 45-55 yards.

Honorable Mention: Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Onta Foreman

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Again, I’m rather locked into my same player pool as mentioned in the cash article. Here are my main focus wide receivers:

CeeDee Lamb – 4-5% ownership projection in the nut-best matchup for opposing slot wideouts.
Tyreek Hill – top wide receiver for my Mahomes love.
Stefon Diggs – volume, volume, volume. Top wide receiver for my Josh Allen love.
Terry McLaurin – 4-5% owned run-back in a matchup against a corner who has a big name, Trevon Diggs, but simply is not good in coverage. Sexy run-back to my Dallas exposure.
Ja’Maar Chase – starting to become the forgotten man in CIN as Tee Higgins has been riding the hot hand. A sub-10% owned Ja’Maar chase with a price discount… Yes.
Mike Evans – Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace are the best people to pick-on in this Buffalo secondary.
Cole Beasley – cheap exposure to BUF/TB and an excellent matchup on the inside of the Bucs’ secondary.
Laviska Shenault – Yes, I’m going back to Laviska Shenault. The AETY Model absolutely loves to target slot wide receivers against Tennessee. Shenault has seen a MASSIVE uptick in slot snaps and Marvin Jones may be benched as he got into verbal altercations with that moron of a head coach. At 2-4% ownership, I’ll trust the model and ride a salary-relief slot wideout in Shenault.
Josh Palmer – as everyone goes to play Jalen Guyton (I don’t mind his big play upside at all), I’ll pivot to the man taking the routes Keenan Allen runs.

Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk (if Deebo is OUT), DK Metcalf, Jamison Crowder

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Please see the Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown for my thoughts on the Tight-End player pool.

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 14 – Cash Game Checkdown

Jon Love 3 years ago

written by Jon Love

Welcome back to the Week 14 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 14, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

We cannot miss on QB this week with Brady, Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Burrow, etc. all on the same slate!
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

As stated above, this is a loaded player pool at the Quarterback position and I don’t really see any reason to pay down unless you trust the rushing ability of Taysom Hill (Alvin Kamara is BACK) or Cam Newton, it’s a week to pay up to one of the below…

Top-Tier

– Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) – Mahomes has been struggling a bit this year due to a horrid offensive line but is primed for a blow-up spot here against a Las Vegas defense that blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL.
– Josh Allen ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD) – both of these teams love to throw the football on a weekly basis… this game will be the definition of volume. Josh Allen also offers a significant floor with his rushing ability.

Mid-Tier

– Joe Burrow ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – way too cheap despite a slower-paced game likely against San Francisco. This price is ridiculous and a banged up Joe Mixon in a matchup against the 49ers 3rd ranked run defense (DVOA) should have Zac Taylor calling for a heavy pass-script with Joe Burrow and company.

Low-Tier

– Taysom Hill ($5,600 DK ONLY)
– Cam Newton ($5,400 DK ONLY)

Honorable Mention: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD)

With no Keenan Allen, it’s very likely we see the Austin Ekeler chalk week. His floor is arguably second to nobody on this slate but the price-tag is quite high if we’re paying up at Quarterback. Regardless, the Giants’ run defense is awful, grading 31st in run defense DVOA. Ekeler should be heavily leaned on in the passing game and be the first option for this offense in the red-zone.

Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

Despite missing a couple of weeks, Alvin Kamara is going to be the focal point of this Saints’ offense with a banged up Taysom Hill, no Mark Ingram, and no Ty Montgomery (like that matters anyways). The Jets are the number one matchup for opposing running backs and the AETY Model loves Kamara’s touchdown equity in this game, as do the sportsbooks listing Kamara (-200) to score a touchdown. If Taysom can check the ball down to Kamara, we’re back on track with the fantasy play of Alvin Kamara we all know and love.

Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD)

Jacobs will hardly leave the field on Sunday now that Kenyan Drake is out for the season and Jalen Richard on the COVID-IR, this is exactly what we should be looking for in a NFL DFS cash game build… Volume! Regardless of the way this game with a 48-point total shakes out, Josh Jacobs should be game-script proof with his pass-catching ability he’s shown lately. He’s simply way too cheap and will be a core play for me across all formats of NFL DFS this weekend.

Antonio Gibson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

As long as JD McKissic is out, Antonio Gibson is another damn-near lock button for DFS cash games. We know Washington will want to take the air out of the football in a matchup against a lethal Dallas offense and that will bode well for one of the hottest fantasy running backs in the league in Antonio Gibson.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams (lock if MG3 is OUT), Leonard Fournette, D’onta Foreman (FD)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb ($7,200 DK / $7,800 FD)

One thing the AETY Model loves is picking on the inside of pass-funnel defenses that bleed fantasy production to slot receivers. Ah la, CeeDee Lamb in Week 14. The Washington Football Team give up an Adjusted Expected 15% more production to slot receivers than the average NFL pass-defense and there’s arguably no better slot receiver in the NFL than CeeDee Lamb (honorable mention Keenan Allen). Lamb should be in for a field day.

DJ Moore ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)

Our weekly “pick on Atlanta’s secondary” play of the week is obviously, DJ Moore. Moore is going to be insanely popular this week and for good reason, it’s Fabian Moreau, Richie Grant, and A.J. Terrell in coverage.

Mike Williams ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD)

Assuming Mike Williams gets the nod to play on Sunday, he’s likely going to be the highest owned wide receiver on the slate and something you probably cannot avoid in NFL DFS cash games. I don’t love the matchup as James Bradberry usually does well against slower, big-body wide receivers, but the volume inside the red-zone will likely focus on Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams.

Jerry Jeudy ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD)

A number one wide receiver priced like a mid-tier WR2 is something I’m always interested in when looking through my cash game player pool. The AETY Model grades out Jeudy as one of the top values on this slate and the matchup on the inside against converted safety, Will Harris is one Jeudy and Bridgewater will abuse when they drop back to pass.

Cole Beasley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)

Cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate leads us to Cole Beasley. In addition, the AETY Model gives slot receivers a 12% boost in expected production against this Bucs’ secondary. As mentioned when discussing Josh Allen, all the Bills are going to do is throw the football and that puts a cheap Cole Beasley in a smash spot for NFL DFS cash games.

Honorable Mention: Jamison Crowder (if Eli Moore is OUT), Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Josh Palmer (cheap punt who takes the slot for Keenan Allen), Hunter Renfrow, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk (if Deebo Samuel is OUT), DK Metcalf

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

I’ll be paying up at Tight-End this week. The player pool is loaded with Tight-End studs and I simply will not play a punt Tight-End in cash games. Here’s my order of preference…

– Travis Kelce ($7,400 DK / $7,500 FD)
– George Kittle ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD)
– Rob Gronkowski ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)
– Mark Andrews ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD)

Honorable Mention: Austin Hooper, James O’Shaughnessy

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
Cincinatti Bengals
Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 13 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 13 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $8,200 FD) / Joe Burrow ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD)

Despite any ownership projection, I’ll be heavily interested in both signal callers Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in a game with a 50.5 point total which is tied for the highest on the slate (TB/ATL). If I had to choose one, it would likely be Herbert as the passing volume for the Chargers is second to only Tom Brady and the Bucs, but the AETY Model loves the expected pace on both sides of this game and the condensed target shares by both teams for stacking purposes.

On DraftKings, these guys are way too cheap for the expected outputs on both sides, but Burrow’s ownership is projected to be under 5% in comparison to Justin Herbert around 12-15%.

LAC Key Pairing(s) / Run-backs: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler
CIN Key Pairing(s)/ Run-backs: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins

Taylor Heinicke ($5,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

The second game of my GPP interest this weekend will be in Las Vegas featuring two of the weaker defenses in the NFL. The Washington Football Team grades 31st in overall defense DVOA while the hosting Las Vegas Raiders grade 24th. Assuming these two teams play to their true colors and bleed offensive production from the jump, this game should offer a ton of condensed, fantasy upside. Heinicke also offers a little upside with his rushing ability, leaving him as one of my favorite NFL DFS GPP quarterbacks at sub-5% ownership and perfect leverage (or additional pairing) to Antonio Gibson chalk.

Key Pairing(s): Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson. Logan Thomas
Key Run-back(s): Hunter Renfrow, Foster Moreau

Tyrod Taylor ($5,300 DK / $7,000 FD)

One thing I love the most is praying on the recency bias of DFS players. Last week, everyone wanted to take the savings and eat the Tyrod Taylor chalk in a home game against the Jets. Wouldn’t you know, Tyrod Taylor let them down. This week, Tyrod is my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP punt-play of the week at the quarterback position in a gamescript that actually promotes a healthy passing narrative for Tyrod Taylor as a 10-point underdog to Jonathan Taylor and company. Why people chased the Tyrod love last week against the Jets is beyond me, but if you like Tyrod, this would be the game to play him against a Colts’ pass-funnel defense where he’ll be chasing points early.

He’s still Tyrod Taylor and it’s still the Texans, they can always sh** the bed. Proceed with caution.

Key Pairing(s): Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins
Key Run-back(s): Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

I’m pretty much locked into Jonathan Taylor and the value chalk running backs of Elijah Mitchell and Antonio Gibson. I will have to get different elsewhere in my lineups as you’ll read in this article. Outside of those three, here’s who will be core players in my NFL DFS GPP player pool…

Joe Mixon ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

Joe Mixon around 10% ownership in one of my favorite games on the slate to attack? Yes, please. We don’t need to go into more detail on Chargers’ 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA).

Saquon Barkley ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

Saquon Barkley is still Saquon Barkley but priced like Josh Jacobs and James Robinson, lol. Barkley does not have a ton of “Vegas love” with rushing props in the mid-50’s, but the upside with Barkley is that he can always break one off and fill up the box score with his pass catching abilities, especially against a Miami defense that runs a lot of Cover-Zero.

Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Austin Ekeler, James Conner

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD)

Criminal price on FanDuel, but always in play with the volume on DraftKings. The AETY Model has Jefferson as the true WR2 on this slate, right behind Cooper Kupp. This secondary for Detroit is borderline practice-squad and will not be able to contain the pristine route running of Jefferson.

Terry McLaurin ($7,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

The player with the highest upside in one of my favorite games to get exposure to at under 5% ownership. We always pick on the Raiders’ secondary that grades 25th in pass defense DVOA. If this games shoots out like the AETY Model projects it will, Terry McLaurin will be in an excellent spot for a ceiling game of 7+ receptions, 100+ yards and 22+ fantasy points.

Ja’Maar Chase ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD)

No Asante Samuel Jr. and a relatively banged up Chargers’ secondary as a whole… Ja’Maar is due for another blow-up game and as long as this one goes up-paced, Chase is in line for a monster output in addition to all of the key players on this Bengals’ offense.

Nico Collins ($3,100 DK / $5,200 FD)

Alright, it’s time… the Nico Collins breakout game is upon us! For those of you that have been with Win Daily for a while (we greatly appreciate you), you know how much I love the upside of Nico Collins. I don’t expect 15+ points, but at damn-near site minimums and no Danny Amendola, we should finally see a 70% or greater snap share for Collins in a gamescript that should heavily lean towards Texans’ pass-catchers. We always pick on Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes, so let’s give the rookie a shot here in lineups we need salary relief.

Honorable Mention: DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Van Jefferson, Josh Reynolds

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

As mentioned in the Cash Game Checkdown,

This week is rather simple for me at tight-end. You’re either punting down to Foster Moreau with Darren Waller out with injury, or riding one of the higher priced tight-ends of:

– Logan Thomas
– Rob Gronkowski
– Mark Andrews
– George Kittle: absolutely love him as a run-back to low-owned Russel Wilson stacks and leverage off of Eli Mitchell chalk. At 5% ownership, no one has the upside George Kittle has at the tight-end position this weekend.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Kyle Pitts

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 13 – Cash Game Checkdown

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 13, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Loaded running back player pool! I am focusing on building my cash game lineup around 3 running backs and more of the mid-tier values at wide receiver.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Tom Brady ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD)

Despite the let-down in Week 12, Tom Brady enters this week as arguably the top cash-game quarterback option against the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA. Hell, my best GPP lineup last week was with Trevor Lawrence going up against Atlanta. That is how much I despise this Falcons’ defense and will always look to attack them in NFL DFS. The Bucs have the highest implied team total on this slate and should have no issues putting up 30+ points on the road, in the dome. Brady is a staple for 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in this matchup.

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $8,200 FD)

Volume, volume, volume. Week in, week out you’ll hear me preach about volume when discussing cash game lineup builds and outside of Tom Brady, there is no one that compares to the passing volume of Justin Herbert. I love this game from multiple angles and with the second highest total on the slate, I feel quite confident in loading up on this matchup. The AETY Model grades out Herbert as the fourth highest value on the slate at the quarterback position putting him well in play for cash games, despite having a relatively high price-tag at $6,700 on DK and $8,200 on FD.

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow

NFL DFS Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,200 DK / $10,500 FD)

Priced up like a healthy Derrick Henry! If you can afford him, you load up Jonathan Taylor as a 10-point favorite against Houston and their 25th ranked run defense (DVOA). I do not think he’s 100% necessary for cash as there are tons of great options at the running back position this week, but there’s arguably no one safer in addition to offering ridiculous upside, like Jonathan Taylor.

Joe Mixon ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

Weekly spot of picking on the Chargers’ dead-last run defense in the NFL. I have him neck and neck with Jonathan Taylor as the RB1 this week with a significant discount to Taylor on both NFL DFS outlets.

Alexander Mattison ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD)

Incredibly surprised the DFS sites raised his price before knowing the true severity of Dalvin Cook’s injury, but price aside, the lead Minnesota running back is always an elite play in this outside-zone running scheme, as a touchdown-favorite against Detroit. He’d be an absolute lock in cash games if he were priced down like usual backup running backs moving into a lead role, but he’s still 100% cash viable in this high-volume running system.

Elijah Mitchell ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

You all know my love for Elijah Mitchell on a normal week basis, now this is Elijah Mitchell without Deebo Samuel taking key snaps out of the backfield. The Seattle Seahawks run defense is stingy on paper but has been getting carved up of late, giving up over 140 rush yards to Washington Football Team’s pair of running backs last week. Washington has been a putrid running offense this year in terms of efficiency (25th in run offense DVOA) while the run game is the heart and soul of San Francisco’s offense (7th in run offense DVOA). The 49ers and Mitchell should have no problem putting up quality fantasy numbers like the Washington backs just did.

Antonio Gibson ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Way too cheap on both NFL DFS outlets with the assumption J.D. McKissic misses this game with a concussion. This game has one of the higher total on the slates, which in theory, provides Gibson with plenty of touchdown equity and the loss of McKissic should boost a heavy workload in the passing attack… which we finally saw glimpses of from Gibson in Week 12.

Jamaal Williams ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD)

Not in love with Jamaal Williams by any means, but with no D’Andre Swift, we can assume this will lead to a heavy workload in Dan Campbell’s extremely run-heavy offense. I would not be surprised to see a bit more Jermar Jefferson this week, but Jamaal Williams will still get the lion-share of the carries/targets and demand 45% or more ownership in NFL DFS cash games.

UPDATE: Sony Michel is a fine cash play if Henderson is OUT.

Honorable Mention: James Conner, Sony Michel

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Chris Godwin ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

If you cannot afford Tom Brady, get exposure to him through Chris Godwin. Yes, Godwin let many of you down last week, but we cannot play this game with extreme recency bias in any direction. Godwin is in an excellent spot for 5+ receptions and 75 or more receiving yards with significant touchdown equity.

Brandin Cooks ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

Wide receivers against the Colts’ secondary… sound familiar? Yes? We do it every week and it more times than not will go in our favor. Cooks is a mid-tier priced, WR1 in a game where the Texans will be chasing points from the get-go. I never love to roster Cooks, but the price-tag and matchup screams to play him in cash, especially with 35% or more of the field likely to roster him. Rock Ya-Sin will get torched multiple times by Cooks’ elite route running.

Brandon Aiyuk ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

Absolute lock for me in cash games this week as Brandon Aiyuk takes over the X spot in the 49ers’ wide receiving core while Deebo Samuel is out with injury. This will be one of the rare weeks I’m okay with “stacking” an offense in cash games, using Eli Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk together. If I had to choose one, it’s Aiyuk.

Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

Mike Williams is quietly coming back to life and 100% healthy, which we haven’t seen since he lit the fantasy football world on fire earlier in this 2021 season. We all know this offense runs through Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, but at this low of a price-tag and 20 targets in the past three games, Mike Williams is an extreme cash game value on a week many of you will look to pay up at running back. Do we even need to talk about the matchup on the outside with Eli Apple? Let’s go, Big Mike!

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

This week is rather simple for me at tight-end. You’re either punting down to Foster Moreau with Darren Waller out with injury, or riding one of the higher priced tight-ends of:

– Logan Thomas
– Rob Gronkowski
– Mark Andrews

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Top-Tier
– Los Angeles Rams
– Indianapolis Colts

Mid-Tier
– Philadelphia Eagles
– Miami Dolphins

Punts
– Las Vegas Raiders
– New York Giants
– Chicago Bears
– Detroit Lions

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 12 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 11 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.

*We all know where the chalk (Bucs, Chargers, Panthers) is going to be and as stated above, I’m not here to tell you not to play those games in GPP… I love those games as well.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

TB/IND
MIN/SF
ATL/JAX
GB/LAR
LAC/DEN

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

Alright, we’re on the first damn player in the article and it’s already time to throw-up. There’s multiple paths to failure when rostering a guy like Trevor Lawrence. I know that, you know that, we all know that. My main concern isn’t the Jacksonville offense (which is scary to say), it’s the absolute pathetic effort we’ve seen from Atlanta over the past month. These guys have absolutely no fight in them whatsoever and I’m extremely concerned they do not push the pace and keep Jacksonville’s passing game active. Having said that, this is a matchup of two of the league’s worst defenses, we should see some offense… I hope.

Behind only the New York Jets, Atlanta’s defense gives up the most points to opponent offenses in the NFL and the AETY Model agrees… grading out Jacksonville’s offense as the 5th highest, ceiling-touchdown equity on the slate. It’s gross, but at 1-2% ownership, I’ll take a shot on Trevor Lawrence as big-time leverage off of one of the highest owned running backs on the slate in James Robinson, but mainly for what it allows me to afford with the rest of my build. Let’s get weird!

*At this low of ownership, you do not need to force a pairing or run-back, but with no Jamal Agnew, the target-share is rather condensed (or so I hope) on the Jacksonville side of the ball. With Atlanta as a run-back (again, likely not necessary), you know exactly where the production will likely come from.

Key Pairing(s): Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold, James Robinson
Key Run-back(s): Kyle Pitts

Kirk Cousins ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD)

Continuing the theme of picking on pass-funnel defenses leads us back to Kirk Cousins, who low-key has been a top-eight fantasy quarterback this year. This Vikings/49ers game has the second highest total on the slate with little-to-no ownership at all and I love the simple “stack-ability” we get with Minnesota. I’ll roll the dice backing Cousins and this Vikings’ offense in NFL DFS GPP builds against the 49ers 22nd ranked pass defense (DVOA).

Key Pairing(s): Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Tyler Conklin
Key Run-back(s): George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

Jalen Hurts ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD)

Jalen Hurts is officially the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy football this season and comes into the week off of a MONSTER fantasy performance in Week 11. His price went significantly up across all NFL DFS outlets, but his ownership did not. I’m seeing Jalen Hurts projected for 5-8% ownership and that is music to my ears as a perfect leverage spot to combat Miles Sanders nut chalk week.

Although the outcome may not be the same, this is the EXACT situation Ghost and I talked about on the livestream last week when we discussed the Packers’ passing attack in NFL DFS GPP builds to leverage ourselves against the AJ Dillon chalk… those lineups absolutely destroyed the DFS community.

Key Pairing(s): Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert
Key Run-back(s): Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Herbert

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel, but still a great, low-owned play on DraftKings. Anytime we can get Dalvin Cook under 8% ownership in a high-total game, we need to seriously consider rostering him. As much as I like Kirk Cousins, I equally like this spot for a dual-threat running back with extreme red-zone equity in Dalvin Cook.

Najee Harris ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD)

Najee Harris under 10% ownership? What doesn’t this guy do? If the Steelers end up playing from behind, he’s extremely active in the passing game, which bodes well for us on DraftKings. If the Steelers get a lead early and sit on the ball a bit more, Najee Harris will get 20+ carries. If he can get into the box, he can break this slate wide open.

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD)

Stupid pricing on DraftKings and likely will not be an under the radar play by any means, but if you need salary relief with 18+ fantasy point upside, look no further than Henderson here against a banged up Packers’ defense that grades 26th against the run (DVOA).

Javonte Williams ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

If you have been with Win Daily for more multiple NFL DFS seasons, you know I always love rookie running backs after a bye-week. Pair that with my love for picking on the NFL’s worst run defense(32nd in run defense DVOA) in the Los Angeles Chargers and you have yourself a 5% owned lottery ticket this weekend… who also is a direct pivot off of Miles Sanders chalk.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, James Robinson

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)

Please see the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for more on Justin Jefferson.

DeVonta Smith ($6,400 DK / $6,400 FD)

To add on to the leverage against Miles Sanders, I certainly have to have interest in DeVonta Smith at 3-5% ownership. Incredibly affordable on FanDuel and allows you to get your exposure to TB/IND or whatever game it is you’re interested in the most, but still an excellent NFL DFS GPP play on DraftKings. DeVonta has recorded a ~30% target share over the past few weeks and should have no issue burning James Bradberry on a deep ball or two to smash his value.

Van Jefferson Jr. ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD)

Van Jefferson is still the big-play, value wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams, not Odell Beckham Jr. Although we’re very likely to see a much higher snap share for Odell as opposed to what he saw in Week 10 for his debut, Van Jefferson won’t leave the field. If Van Jefferson can get lined up with Green Bay’s Rasul Douglas, Van should be able to put on a show whenever the ball isn’t going to Henderson or Cooper Kupp.

Dez Fitzpatrick ($3,200 DK / $5,000 FD)

The rookie out of Louisville is only in this article as a source of “punt-value” so please temper your expectations and do not pair him with another low-floor, punt play… that is a recipe for disaster. I really love his big body and athleticism, something that Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook really don’t possess. His route running did get him in a bit of trouble last week causing Tannehill to throw one of his many interceptions but, on the bright side, Fitzpatrick did lead this wide receiver core in snap share. In my opinion, Fitzpatrick is the only thing worth watching on this Tennessee offense right now.

Honorable Mention: Adam Thielen, Michael Pittman Jr., Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

This week, I’m just going to list my player pool at the tight-end position with a little summary as to why I’m interested.

George Kittle – sub 10% ownership with extreme touchdown equity in a game I think goes well over the total. Also a nice run-back to my Minnesota exposure.
Kyle Pitts – arguably the highest upside at the position going up against a horrid Jacksonville defense that grades 30th in DVOA against the tight-ends. Perfect little mini-stack to my Laviska Shenault lineups or Trevor Lawrence builds.
Rob Gronkowski – Super popular, but way underpriced. Great way to get cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.
Evan Engram – Literally everyone is injured for New York’s pass catchers. Easy run-back to Miles Sanders builds or Philly passing game lineups.
Jack Doyle – one of my favorite “gross” plays on the slate. Michael Pittman is going to be heavy, heavy chalk and for good reason. A great way to get different is to pivot down to Jack Doyle or add Jack Doyle in with Michael Pittman for a TB/IND game-stack.

Honorable Mention: Dan Arnold, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 12 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Happy Thanksgiving and welcome back to the Week 12 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 12, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,200 FD)

One of the main staples for us when creating a NFL DFS cash game lineup is projected volume. No one at the QB position has a higher expected passing volume on the Week 12 slate (or any slate for that matter) than Tom Brady, with a 41.75 expected pass attempts per game (from the AETY Model). We pick on the Colts’ secondary on a weekly basis and will go back to the well with Tom Brady in Week 12 as 30-45% of the field rosters Brady in cash game formats.

Cam Newton ($5,200 DK / $8,000 FD)

What a disaster by DraftKings for Newton’s pricing this week. If you need a pay-down option on DraftKings, look no further than Cam Newton. On FanDuel, I’d prefer Brady, but the rushing upside of Cam Newton paired with Miami’s struggling defense makes Newton cash-viable there as well.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DK / $9,700 FD)

McCaffrey is back and a full-go for the Carolina Panthers (over 70% of the offensive snaps and a 30% target share in the past two weeks), yet priced under $10K (which we are used to seeing with CMC) on both NFL DFS outlets. As much as I don’t like stacking in cash games, the public (on DK) is very likely to ride with both Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey in cash and I personally don’t see an issue with that this week. It’s Christian McCaffrey.

James Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD)

Keeping up with the weekly theme of attacking the Falcons’ defense in any way possible will lead us to James Robinson. I prefer the price on DraftKings but still can get behind the idea of rostering Robinson on FanDuel this week as he grades out 5th this week on the AETY Model’s expected touchdown equity for running backs behind, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, and AJ Dillon. Robinson should get a bit of a bump up in the passing game (which was already a nice floor) with Jamal Agnew on the IR.

AJ Dillon ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD)

Assuming Aaron Jones is out again in Week 12, AJ Dillon offers us a valuable salary relief running back in one of the higher-total shootouts on the slate as Green Bay hosts the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers do not like to play up-paced and certainly do not want to get in a shoot-out with a healthy Rams offense so look for Dillon to provide fantasy football players with another high-floor, 15+ touch outing with a heavy workload in both the rushing and passing attack.

Miles Sanders ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

Miles Sanders chalk week? What a time to be alive! As much as this may gross you out, Miles Sanders is finally primed up for a breakout game against the New York Giants and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). For those who don’t rewatch games and try to get a better understanding of a team’s offensive scheme, we’re here to assist. The Philadelphia Eagles have completely flipped the script on their offensive game plan that was averaging 34.6 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-8, to a ridiculously heavy run approach featuring 19.5 pass attempts per game since Week 8.

Imagine that… Nick Sirianni figured out that it’s probably not a wise move to get into shootouts with Jalen Hurts as your quarterback. Sanders is simply way too cheap for a guy that will be featured in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses now that Jordan Howard has been ruled out with injury.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Darrell Henderson Jr., David Johnson (gross), Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)

What more do we need to see from Justin Jefferson? This Vikings’ passing attack lives off of Justin Jefferson productivity and the passing attack is how you beat San Francisco (22nd in pass defense DVOA / 3rd in run defense DVOA). The AETY Model grades Jefferson up with Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams and the only difference in my opinion between them, is price. Jefferson is way too cheap on FanDuel but also a great play at low ownership on DraftKings.

Deebo Samuel ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD)

If you can afford him, you play him. Simple as that. Deebo Samuel is an absolute piece of fantasy gold that owns a 30% target share and also happens to be the second best running back on the 49ers roster. This afternoon game in San Francisco holds the second highest total on the slate and another matchup that is extremely pro-Deebo, facing off against Mack Alexander and Bashaud Breeland. With Eli Mitchell returning, we should see Deebo get back to his roots of a 30% target share and high red-zone equity.

Chris Godwin ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

If you’re not using Tom Brady, use his highest-targeted wide receiver, Chris Godwin. Godwin’s matchup on the inside with Kenny Moore is a great one that favors the 4″ taller, Chris Godwin. Getting exposure to this game in some form is going to be important for me and the majority of the NFL DFS community.

Diontae Johnson ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

At the lower end of the top-tier wideouts sits, Diontae Johnson. Johnson has been borderline matchup proof throughout the 2021 NFL season and this game projects to be a bit higher in pace than most on this slate. For whatever it’s worth, Ben Roethlisberger’s passing prop in Week 12 is one of the highest marks we’ve seen all year and he’ll look to hit Diontae Johnson early and often, especially when he’s lined up against Eli Apple.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD)

Assuming the Bucs’ get ahead early in this one, like they usually do besides that disaster of a game in Washington, the Colts’ will be forced to play up-paced and rely on a bit more than just Jonathan Taylor (especially if Vita Vea returns). Michael Pittman is a clear-cut WR1 and is priced in the mid-tier. As long as this gamescript goes to plan, the AETY Model loves Pittman’s chances at hitting the 3x value mark which is perfect for our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Laviska Shenault Jr. ($4,400 DK / $5,600 FD)

With no Jamal Agnew, we would think Laviska Shenault gets a significant tick-up in this Jacksonville offense (or lack-thereof). On the surface, Shenault’s snaps and usage rate continues to climb over the past few weeks and there’s now rumors Shenault will be utilized a bit more in the backfield. As gross as rostering a Jaguars’ pass-catcher is for NFL DFS cash game formats, the matchup against Atlanta and the low price-tag warrants heavy consideration for Laviska Shenault.

Honorable Mention: Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Corey Davis, Dez Fitzpatrick

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Honestly, the tight-end pool is rather weak on this Sunday main slate. In cash, here is my order of preference:

Evan Engram ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD)

Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD)

Rob Gronkowski ($4,400 DK ONLY)

George Kittle ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals
New York Jets
Houston Texans

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 11 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 11 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 11 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This is honestly gong to be a very condensed week for me with most of my interest in those two afternoon shootouts. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

DAL/KC
CIN/LV
HOU/TEN (pending weather)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)

If you read the Cash Game Checkdown, you are aware of my love for this Bengals offense after the bye-week. The Raiders’ secondary is full of second-string talent and with extra days of preparation, I expect both of these offenses to go wild and produce a significant amount of fantasy points and HOPEFULLY, keep up the pace with Dallas and Kansas City. Burrow is my favorite quarterback play on this slate.

Key Pairing(s): Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, C.J. Uzomah
Key Run-back(s): Darren Waller, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs, Zay Jones

Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)

There’s not a whole lot on this slate that I like outside of Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. Having said that, Ryan Tannehill grades out as an excellent 1-3% owned NFL DFS GPP quarterback due to the red-zone rushing upside and the condensed target-share that is easy to stack. I don’t love the play, but will have a bit of Tannehill this weekend if the rain holds off. Be sure to check the weather before moving forward with Tannehill.

Key Pairing(s): A.J. Brown, D’Onta Foreman
Key Run-back(s): Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)

With all of the ownership going down to the value running backs, that leaves Ezekiel Elliott alone on an island with a 5% ownership projection. There is simply way too much touchdown equity in Zeke’s corner this weekend and he will be a core play for me in all formats. The late news of Tyron Smith being out, it gets me a bit less excited, but still in on Elliott.

Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel but still a very interesting play on DraftKings. FanDuel clearly messed this pricing up because the AETY Model shows that his proper price-tag should be right around $7.5K on DraftKings and in the mid-low $8K range on FanDuel. Similar to Elliott, Joe Mixon has the highest touchdown equity in one of my favorite games to stack.

D’Onta Foreman ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

While everyone flocks to Jeff Wilson and Mark Ingram for their value running backs, D’Onta Foreman is quietly in a great spot with Jeremy McNichols out with a concussion. The sportsbooks seem to agree as they have him close to even money to score a touchdown and a rushing prop of over 55 yards. It’s not sexy, but on DraftKings specifically, that price-tag allows you to do a lot and more importantly, in a different way than those eating all of the chalk value.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

To no surprise, I’m incredibly heavy on the main pass-catchers for the top two games on my list to start the article. This week, I’m just going to list off my receiver player pool in order of my GPP exposure. Tune into the livestream tomorrow morning at 11AM EST for further updates.

Tyreek Hill
CeeDee Lamb
Tee Higgins
Ja’Maar Chase
Michael Gallup
Bryan Edwards (nice 1-2% owned piece of that game)
Adam Thielen (easy run-back to the A.J. Dillon chalk)
A.J. Brown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DK Metcalf (no one is playing a Seattle stack this week)
Deebo Samuel (best matchup on the slate, just hope JAX can keep it close)
Zay Jones (min price 0% owned punt and will see a lot of Eli Apple. Don’t expect much volume but a big play is extremely possible to smash the $3K price-tag)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Similar to the above, I’m going to very concentrated at the tight-end position with the likes of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Kelce’s ownership sitting around 10% is comical and my main angle of attack is to be incredibly overweight with him or Waller, but if not, I’m very interested in the below…

George Kittle ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)

Picking on the Jaguars pass defense is usually a profitable move and the fact that Kittle is likely sub-5% owned is an excellent pivot if you’re not on the Kelce or Waller train. The Jaguars grade 26th in DVOA against the tight-end and 31st overall against the pass in general, yikes! A George Kittle drag-route touchdown will be incoming.

Dalton Schultz ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)

As much as Amari Cooper helps out Michael Gallup, the AETY Model expects a significant boost up for Dalton Schultz on the inside of this Kansas City defense. As good of a player people think Tyrann Mathieu is, he really struggles in coverage and will see a fair share of the talented pass-catching, Dalton Schultz. Again, this game is loaded with fantasy appeal and chalk everywhere, but Schultz is going to be sub-5% in ownership and primed up for a higher-output game like he was used to earlier this season.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, John Bates

3 years ago 0 comments

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The RSM Classic Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 3 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome everyone to The RSM Classic Final Ownership Projections, this week we travel to Sea Isle Georgia where golfers flock to pay inflated prices for homes to say they live there, a lot has to do with a pretty decent golf course that only a hurricane could dissolve. Webb Simpson has done well here, and so has Robert Streb, winner last year and also taking home the hardware in 2015. There have been more winners at 60-1 or better than the favorites, so this may be the week when that hidden low owned gem comes through for you.

Last nights spirited Golf podcast, featuring industry kingpins Sia, Joel and Spencer started with a debate on whether grocery shopping was good chalk or bad chalk. Sia enjoys shopping, whereas Spencer and Joel preferred to have their groceries delivered. Joel’s grocery store didn’t deliver, so he bought the place with his DK winnings and now they deliver to him. I used to own some car dealerships and I worked 17 hour days seven days a week and did all my shopping at 7-11. Imagine my shock and wonder when my misses took me to a grocery superstore after I retired and I’d never seen so much food in my life, I was happy to see mountains of food on the shelves, and was saddened to realize that every farmer in America had to be hooked on crystal meth. It made sense that when Old McDonald goes E I E I O in the barnyard song, he’s just tweaking.

With the price of gas and food skyrocketing, it’s a great time to score some green on golf, and you have the perfect staff to deliver the goods. From Isaiah’s and Sia’s first look article, to Spencer’s extremely detailed model forecasting, to Joel taking down all the Showdown contests, it’s a win for you from the Win Daily Sports golf staff. Do Not forget Sia’s 46-13 Secret Weapon record (dun dun dun), if you had to pick the cheapest golfers at the lowest ownership 59 times, could you hit 46 ? Not just making the cut, but coming in second, top 5, top 10, its an amazing feat and an amazing record. Antonio should be contributing after he recovers at home, and Patrick may be back after he’s allegedly released from that unfortunate Morikawa mix up. From one on one coaching, roster constructing, player rankings and articles and live streams, we have you covered, and I’ll cover your ownership projections to help you find that contrarian low owned jewel that’s your slate breaker to life changing money.

The ownership projections are another key tool to help you with your roster construction to beat the field. Lets take a look at the numbers for The RSM Classic.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Scheffler, Scottie	20.4	10900
Conners, Corey	19.9	9900
Smith, Cameron	19.6	10300
Henley, Russell	18.9	9600
Simpson, Webb	17.7	10700
Dahmen, Joel	14.7	8500
Oosthuizen, Louis	13.1	10400
Kirk, Chris	12.2	8000
Smalley, Alex	11.9	7100
Scott,Adam	11.7	9000
McCarthy, Denny	11.4	7000
Pereira, Mito	10.8	8300
Norlander, Henrik	10.8	7300
Noren, Alex	10.4	9500
Kisner, Kevin	10.3	9200
English, Harris	10.2	10100
Gooch, Talor	10.2	9300
Power, Seamus	9.4	8200
Long, Adam	9.4	7500
Hughes, Mackenzie	9.2	8600
Kucher, Matt	9.2	7900
List, Luke	9.1	7500
Duncan, Tyler	8.6	7200
Wallace, Matt	8.5	7600
Todd, Brendon	8.3	8400
Rodgers, Patrick	8.2	7700
NeSmith, Matthew	8.1	6800
Niemann, Joaquin	7.9	9700
Rai, Aaron	7.7	7400
Vegas, Jhonattan	7.6	8100
Grillo, Emiliano	7.3	7400
Ramey, Chad	7.2	6000
Bradley, Keegan	6.9	8900
Hoge, Tom	6.6	6900
Hardy, Nick	6.4	6500
Howell III, Charlie	6.1	7800
Glover, Lucas	6.1	7000
Buckley, Hayden	6.0	7300
Streb, Robert	5.9	7500
Lee, Danny	5.8	6000
Merritt, Troy	5.8	7500
Sabbatini, Rory	5.5	6800
Rose, Justin	5.4	8800
Ghim, Doug	5.3	7200
Knox, Russell	5.3	6700
Swafford, Hudson	5.2	6600
Hadwin, Adam	5.1	7200
Lebioda, Hank	4.8	6600
Taylor, Vaughn	4.7	6500
Streelman, Kevin	4.6	7600
Landry ,Andrew	4.6	6800
Johnson, Zack	4.5	6900
Villegas, Camilo	4.4	6800
Kizzire, Patton	4.3	7100
Piercy, Scott	4.2	7000
Thompson, Michael	4.1	6700
Mitchell, Keith	4.0	7200
Hickok, Kramer	3.9	6600
Stuard, Brian	3.6	7200
Harman, Brian	3.4	7800
Stanley, Kyle	3.4	7100
Steele, Brendan	3.4	7000
Reavie, Chez	3.3	7000
Higgs, Harry	3.3	6900
Whaley, Vincent	3.3	6600
Thompson, Davis	3.3	6400
Grace, Branden	3.2	7400
Riley, Davis	3.2	6700
Homa, Max	3.1	8700
McGreevy, Max	2.9	6200
Griffin, Lanto	2.8	7300
Sigg, Greyson	2.4	6600
Davis, Cameron	2.3	6800
Herman, Jim	2.3	6200
Putnam, Andrew	2.2	6400
Day, Jason	2.1	7600
Moore, Taylor	2.1	7100
Cink, Stewart	2.1	6900
Spaun, JJ	2.1	6700
Ryder, Sam	2.1	6300
Munoz, Sebastian	2.0	7300
Jones, Matt	2.0	6900
Pendrith, Taylor	1.9	6700
Watney, Nick	1.7	6200
Theegala, Sahith	1.6	6600
Sloan, Roger	1.6	6300
Huh, John	1.4	6600
Hadley, Chesson	1.4	6300
Schwab, Matthias	1.3	7400
Uihlein, Peter	1.3	6400
Donald, Luke	1.3	6200
Stallings, Scott	1.2	6700
Snedeker, Brandt	1.2	6300
Svensson, Adam	1.2	6300
Reeves, Seth	1.2	6100
Lahiri, Anirban	1.1	6400
Kang, Sung	1.1	6100
Barjon, Paul	1.1	6000
Cook, Austin	1.0	6300
Jaeger, Stephan	0.9	6700
McDowell, Graeme	0.9	6500
Burgoon, Bronson	0.9	6400
Novak, Andrew	0.9	6300
Clark, Wyndham	0.8	6800
Hodges, Lee	0.8	6500
Mullinax, Trey	0.8	6200
Redman, Doc	0.8	6200
Gay, Brian	0.8	6100
Garnett, Brice	0.7	6500
Straka, Sepp	0.7	6500
Wu, Dylan	0.7	6400
Trainer, Martin	0.6	6000
Frittelli, Dylan	0.5	7100
Lashley, Nate	0.5	6300
Van Der Walt, Dawie	0.5	6000
Drewitt, Brett	0.5	6000
Tway, Kevin	0.4	6500
Bramlett, Joseph	0.4	6300
Stroud, Chris	0.4	6200
Werenski, Richy	0.4	6200
Malnati, Peter	0.4	6100
Gutschewski, Scott	0.4	6100
Crane, Ben	0.4	6000
Gligic, Michael	0.4	6000
Young, Cameron	0.3	6800
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	0.3	6600
Lipsky, David	0.3	6400
Lower, Justin	0.3	6400
Poston, JT	0.3	6300
Wu, Brandon	0.3	6200
Walker, Jimmy	0.3	6100
Kitayama, Kurt	0.3	6100
McCumber, Tyler	0.3	6100
Creel, Joshua	0.3	6000
Hearn, David	0.2	6100
Aberg, Ludvig (a)	0.2	6500
McGirt, William	0.2	6100
Byrd, Jonathan	0.2	6100
Thompson, Curtis	0.2	6100
Haas, Bill	0.2	6000
Yu, Chun-an (Kevin)	0.2	6200
Kraft, Kelly	0.1	6400
Hagy, Brandon	0.1	6200
Kohles, Ben	0.1	6200
Skinns, David	0.1	6100
Love III, Davis	0.1	6000
Blixt, Jonas	0.1	6000
Smotherman, Austin	0.1	6000
Tarren, Callum	0.1	6000
Wolfe, Jared	0.1	6000
Griffin, JP	0.1	6000
Wilshire, Kyle	0.1	6000
Yuan, Yechun (Carl)	0.0	6200
Demorat, Mickey	0.0	6000

These final ownership figures for The RSM Classic are accurate as of 17:02 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for The RSM Classic

Top Tier: Oosti

Mid Tier: Chris Kirk, Aaron Rai

Low Tier: Chad Ramey, Taylor Moore

Out in Left Play: Robert Streb, Robert Streb, Robert Streb

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing The RSM Classic Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Spencer, ,Antonio, Isaiah and Patrick to help determine your rosters and lineups.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 10 NFL DFS GPP

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 10 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. After a ANOTHER MONSTER Week 9, let’s stay hot rolling into an ugly, Week 10 slate!

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

On the weird slate with tons of injuries and condensed chalk, it’s going to be very hard to get different. There are three games with a total over 50 points and then the rest leave little fantasy appeal outside of one-offs. I have really dove into this slate and have attempted to get cute with other quarterbacks and really can’t find much that sits well with me. That said, I’m going right back to Justin Herbert this week against the Minnesota secondary we often pick on in a game with a total at 53.5 points. Sometimes, chalk is good-chalk and we just have to find a way to build a high-upside GPP lineup around it.

At a 10% ownership projection, this isn’t nearly the GPP “sex” spot we had last week, but there are five quarterbacks projected for 10% or higher ownership at the quarterback position (Prescott, Brady, Allen, Herbert, and Ryan) and Herbert’s path a ceiling game seems to make the most sense for me and I’ll try to get different elsewhere in my lineup.

Key Pairing(s): Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jared Cook, Austin Ekeler
Key Run-back(s): Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Tyler Conklin

Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD)

Similar to the above, we are not uncovering anything sneaky here with Tom Brady, but what we can do is get different with our build on using a run-back or two with Tom Brady. We know the Bucs are likely going to lead every slate in pass attempts and that should bode well for this Tampa passing attack against a horrid Washington secondary, grading 31st in pass defense DVOA.

Key Pairing(s): Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Tyler Johnson (if Godwin is out)
Key Run-back(s): Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Ricky Seals-Jones

Trevor Lawrence ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

It wouldn’t be a StixPicks GPP article without a nasty 1% owned, punt-play quarterback, so here it is. We’ve had a ton of success picking on the Indianapolis secondary who currently grades 26th in pass defense DVOA and the Jaguars are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL. With the Colts sitting as a 10.5 point favorite, the realistic gamescript here is that the Jaguars are chasing points from the get-go and we watch Jonathan Taylor run wild.

If Lawrence and the Jaguars are somewhat competent on offense this Sunday, Lawrence should offer a lot of savings to build a lineup that helps you avoid the 50% owned punt-running backs of D’Ernest Johnson and Mark Ingram. I’m not saying that is a smart move, but I find it hard to believe D’Ernest Johnson at 50% ownership, running against a stacked-box Bill Belichick is likely to scheme, will be a path to GPP success.

Key Pairing(s): Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold
Key Run-back(s): Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

This week it looks like the majority of the field is going to pair up D’Ernest Johnson, Mark Ingram, which is fine for cash games, but I don’t see much upside there other than significant touchdown variance breaking your way if you choose to build a lineup with them both. That leaves you room for one stud running back and it looks like the field is choosing Najee Harris at that spot leaving Dalvin Cook projected for 10% ownership.

As I mentioned in the cash article, Dalvin Cook is my lock of the week for all formats in NFL DFS this weekend against a Chargers defense giving up five yards per carry and a nut-worst 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). I want a piece of both sides of this game in the majority of my lineups and will be using a run-back to fit my narrative of this game shooting-out.

Key Run-backs: Jared Cook (value), Mike Williams (upside), Keenan Allen (safety/upside), Austin Ekeler (safety/upside)

Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD)

With Aaron Rodgers back in the lineup, the upside for Aaron Jones is arguably second-to-nobody at the running back position this week. The Seahawks grade 30th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs and with Russel Wilson returning for Seattle, this game definitely has shoot-out potential. These are the games where I really like to use Aaron Jones’ elite pass-catching ability and extremely high touchdown equity.

If you think this game is one with sneaky shootout potential, you run Jones back with Metcalf or Lockett. Simple as that.

Leonard Fournette ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

I really only like Fournette if Chris Godwin is out but with a banged up Washington defensive line, he’s in play regardless. This is likely an excellent gamescript for Leonard Fournette as a two-score favorite as is, but if Godwin is out, the pass-catching upside for Fournette is upgraded significantly. At 7-10% ownership, I love the differentiation Fournette offers to your GPP builds.

J.D. McKissic ($5,200 DK ONLY)

Another gross 1% owned type of play, but McKissic’s gamescript as they likely play catch-up to Tom Brady and the Bucs is a very positive one. By no means do I expect McKissic to have a ceiling game here of 18+ points, but I’m using McKissic with the angle of “just go outscore D’Ernest Johnson chalk”. I’d likely keep McKissic exposure strictly to large-field tournaments.

Honorable Mention: Cordarrelle Patterson, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Mike Evans ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

With or without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans is going to be a core play for me this weekend. Brandon St. Juste and Kendall Fuller will have their hands full as Mike Evans brings some serious two-plus touchdown upside in this matchup.

Terry McLaurin ($7,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

Crazy cheap on FanDuel, but McLaurin is in play at 5% ownership on both outlets here. As we discussed J.D. McKissic’s upside in the favorable pass-heavy gamescript for the Washington Football Team, Terry McLaurin is the biggest benefactor in a game that Tampa gets an early lead and continues to score. The AETY Model projects Terry McLaurin for a 32% target share this weekend which would lead the slate if all goes to plan.

Mike Williams ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

I mentioned in the cash article how I don’t like to pick on the inside of Minnesota’s secondary, but boy oh boy do I love picking on Cam Dantzler and Bashaud Breeland. Both of these defenses are insanely banged up and again, this is my favorite game to get exposure to. I was all in Keenan Allen last week and we crushed, but this week, I’ll take the savings and roll with the 100+ yards and two-touchdown upside Mike Williams brings to the table in this matchup.

For what it’s worth, I still love Keenan Allen.

Marvin Jones ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD)

On a slate where I love a lot of higher-priced studs, I’ll need a little bit of savings and Marvin Jones provides me with just that. A true WR1 priced as a mid-tier WR2 is something I always try to find on each slate, especially when they’re going to see Rock Ya-Sin for the majority of the game. When I saw sportsbooks open his prop around 44 receiving yards, I was a bit discouraged in rostering Marvin Jones, but I’m going to hit the over on that prop and double-dip my exposure with Jones in my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Value “Punt” Plays

Tyler Johnson (if Godwin is OUT)
James Washington
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Russell Gage, Diontae Johnson

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

T.J. Hockenson ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

While the whole world rushes to play Diontae Johnson and/or Najee Harris, absolutely no one if interested in Hockenson in a perfect gamescript for a ceiling game. There’s little doubt that the Steelers get ahead early and I always love to take 1% owned-upside on the other side of the DFS chalk heaven. Hockenson has a legit 8+ reception for 100-yards type matchup here. If he can find a way into the end-zone, we’re talking the TE1 on this main slate.

Jared Cook ($3,200 DK / $5,200 FD)

I touched earlier that we need to find a way to get a little different if we’re going to be investing in some of the chalkiest games on this slate and that lead me to Jared Cook. There’s really nothing sexy about Jared Cook but we should always be interested in a pass-catching tight-end against Cover-2 defenses (what Minnesota will run for the majority of Sunday). Cook is projected for 5-8% ownership and the number-one value at tight-end in the AETY Model. I wouldn’t expect much, but if he can get us 10+ fantasy points, we’ll be in a really good spot. If he finds his way into the end-zone, then look out Twitter, because there will be a lot of Win Daily member screenshots going out!

Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Ricky Seals-Jones

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 10 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 10 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after an absolute SMASH yet again in Week 9 for the Win Daily Crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

This is a week from hell. There’s over a dozen of key players questionable or already ruled out with injury and arguably little-to-no value outside of D’Ernest Johnson/Mark Ingram at the running back position.
Cash Game Chalk-Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Josh Allen (30%), Dak Prescott (25%), Justin Herbert (20%), Carson Wentz (20%), Najee Harris (40%), Dalvin Cook (35%), D’Ernest Johnson (70%), Davante Adams (30%), Keenan Allen (30%), Mike Evans (30%) Jakobi Meyers (35%), Dan Arnold (30%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD)

Dak Prescott struggled immensely in his return to the starting lineup last week against the Denver Broncos but that should not scare you whatsoever as he is primed up for a get-right spot against an Atlanta secondary that gets torched on a weekly basis. The Cowboys’ offense should have a great bounce-back here at home against the Falcons and their 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). Prescott is likely to be the highest owned quarterback on this slate and is an excellent start to your cash game build.

Justin Herbert ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

“Hello, recency bias” says the DFS community as our Week 9 Hero, Justin Herbert is projected for the second highest ownership at the quarterback position here in Week 10. In cash, I have absolutely no issue riding the hot hand of Herbert against a severely banged up Minnesota defense. Herbert is borderline matchup proof and his only path to a floor game is if Minnesota can control the pace through Dalvin Cook and the rushing attack like New England successfully did in Week 8.

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

Easily the best running back play on the slate this week against arguably the league’s worst run defense in the Los Angeles Chargers. Assuming Dalvin Cook has no issues suiting up for this game, he’ll be a cash lock for 50% or more of the DFS community this week, including myself.

Najee Harris ($7,900 DK / $9,400 FD)

Likely too expensive for cash on FanDuel, but Najee Harris will yet again lead the slate in touches as a two-score favorite, at home, against the Lions’ 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).

James Conner ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD)

With no Chase Edmonds, James Conner is the only game in town for the Arizona backfield. Coming off of a milly-maker winning performance, James Conner’s price went up a ton, but there’s still plenty of value here on both DFS outlets for a running back quietly leading the league in rushing touchdowns (tied with Derrick Henry) and a matchup against a Carolina defense that struggles to stop the run.

D’Ernest Johnson ($4,700 DK / $5,400 FD)

Well, assuming the whole Cleveland backfield besides Johnson misses this game, D’Ernest Johnson becomes an easy free-square in cash game lineups that the whole field is likely to take. I personally hate this matchup for Johnson, but the price is too cheap and helps us build a lineup with multiple players we listed above. Just take the ugly free-square and move on.

*UPDATE: No Alvin Kamara this week, Mark Ingram value is now damn-near a cash lock button like D’Ernest Johnson. I’ll be using both in cash.

Honorable Mention: Mark Ingram, Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliot, Jonathan Taylor

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Mike Evans ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

Likely no Godwin. No Antonio Brown. No Rob Gronkowski. Absolutely fire up Mike Evans this week against the 31st ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA. Washington Cornerback, Brandon St.-Juste is in for a long, long day trying to contain Mike Evans.

*UPDATE: Godwin practiced Friday. Keep an eye on his status as that would change our love for Mike Evans just a bit.

Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)

Cooper Kupp is $1,600 more on DraftKings this week (on the Thursday-Monday slate), lol. That statement doesn’t help anyone, just thought it was comical. If you can afford Davante Adams, he’s the safest wide receiver play on the slate when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Adams should be in for a fine day against Ugo Amandi and the rest of this untested Seattle secondary.

Diontae Johnson ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD)

This spot was reserved for either Keenan Allen or Diontae Johnson and I chose Johnson due to a slightly better matchup against Detroit’s XFL caliber secondary. I don’t mind Keenan Allen against Mackensie Alexander, but that’s usually a matchup I tend to avoid. The volume can be plenty for Allen to produce, but with the significant price increase, I’m taking my low-owned Keenan Allen smash week from last Sunday and calling it a win. I’m not going to get greedy and go back to the well when Diontae Johnson is cheaper and in a better matchup.

*UPDATE: I’m not going here in cash with no Ben Roethlisberger. Will likely core Davante Adams, Mike Evans, and a value/honorable mention.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

Jacksonville has by far the worst secondary in the NFL and Michael Pittman is becoming a household name in the fantasy community. We don’t need to talk much about the hot-streak of Pittman. ~~If you cannot afford him, the AETY Model absolutely loves the discounted Zach Pascal who is racking up a significant amount of Air Yards and a weapon in the red-zone.~~ T.Y. Hilton is back, no need for Pascal.

Amari Cooper ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD)

Picking on Atlanta’s secondary will be a must for me in some factor of my cash game lineup. I’m likely to get my exposure through locking in Dak Prescott, but if you go another route or want a stack, Amari Cooper is too affordable.

Value Wide Receivers:

Russell Gage ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD)
Jakobi Meyers ($4,800 DK ONLY)
Michael Gallup ($4,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
James Washington ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD)

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy

Tight-Ends

The tight-end position is a bit scarce this weekend without Kelce, Andrews, and Darren Waller. I’ll make my list a bit different this week simply off of the price-points.

Pay Up: Kyle Pitts ($5,800 DK / $6,900 FD)

Values: Pat Freiermuth ($3,900 DK / $5,100 FD) I’m out with no Ben Roethlisberger

Punt: Dan Arnold ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) & Jared Cook ($3,200 DK / $5,200 FD)

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers

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