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What kind of jacket goes to the RBC Heritage winner ? Who’s the winner? Come on in.

The winner of the RBC Heritage gets a red plaid jacket that would make a used car salesman green with envy. They have managed to make it a top level tourney which is difficult coming the week after the Masters. Speaking of the Masters, I spent about 18 hours a day on programs and projections, this week I am making it up to my wife with two weeks on Marco Island courtesy of Draft Kings takedowns. This will be a somewhat condensed report simply because I don’t have to sleep with any of you or hire some stranger to taste my food every night.

Lets take a look at The RBC Heritage Final Ownership Projections to help you with your roster selections.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Morikawa, Collin22.310200
Hadwin, Adam21.87600
Fitzpatrick, Mathew21.39500
Henley, Russell20.39000
Lowry, Shane17.89800
Niemann, Joaquin16.39100
Thomas, Justin16.211100
Hoge, Tom15.47600
McNealy, Maverick14.87900
Berger, Daniel14.69600
Noren, Alex14.58300
Conners, Corey14.39700
Smith, Cameron14.210800
Simpson, Webb13.48800
Kirk, Chris12.98000
Na, Kevin12.47800
Cantlay, Patrick11.910000
Im, Sungjae11.89300
Kucher, Matt11.87800
Fleetwood, Tommy11.28200
Kim, Si Woo10.98400
Kisner, Kevin10.98100
Streelman, Kevin10.97500
Spaun, JJ10.77300
Knox, Russell10.47300
Johnson, Dustin9.710500
Harman, Brian9.67700
Hatton, Tyrrell9.48600
Varner III, Harold9.38500
Horschel, Billy8.98700
Kokrak, Jason8.17900
NeSmith, Matthew7.96600
McCarthy, Denny7.47200
Straka, Sepp7.17200
Pereira, Mito6.87700
Dahmen, Joel6.46800
Merritt, Troy6.47400
Howell III, Charlie5.97100
Spieth, Jordan5.89200
Stuard, Brian5.86700
Frittelli, Dylan5.47400
Glover, Lucas5.17200
Kizzire, Patton4.97100
Wise, Aaron4.87100
Lashley, Nate4.86700
Van Rooyen, Erik4.67300
Bryan, Wesley4.46100
Cink, Stewart4.37200
Poulter, Ian4.27500
List, Luke4.17400
Pan, CT4.17000
Svensson, Adam3.96400
Donald, Luke3.96300
Young, Cameron3.87500
Todd, Brendon3.86800
Riley, Davis 3.67000
Ghim, Doug3.56900
Hossler, Beau3.36800
Thompson, Michael3.36500
Theegala, Sahith3.27100
Tringale, Cameron2.97000
Lahiri, Anirban2.77100
Grillo, Emiliano2.76700
Griffin, Lanto2.66800
Snedeker, Brandt2.66800
Poston,  JT2.36600
Davis, Cameron2.26800
Stallings, Scott2.17000
Taylor, Nick2.06600
Smalley, Alex 1.96600
Norlander, Henrik1.96100
Stenson, Henrik1.86500
Furyk, Jim1.76300
Swafford, Hudson1.76500
Perez, Pat1.76400
Hughes, Mackenzie1.66900
Hickok, Kramer1.66500
Willett, Danny1.56900
Fowler, Rickie1.47000
Redman, Doc1.46400
Kodaira, Satoshi1.36400
Ramey, Chad1.26700
Higgs, Harry1.16600
Duncan, Tyler1.06200
Garnett, Brice0.96200
Grace, Branden0.96700
Lee, KH0.86700
Villegas, Camilo0.76100
Long, Adam0.76400
Martin, Ben0.76200
Johnson, Zack0.66500
Kanaya, Takumi0.66300
Reavie, Chez0.56300
Schwartzel, Charl0.56600
Nimmer, Bryson 0.56100
Hoffman, Charley0.46900
Ortiz, Carlos0.46900
Bramlett, Joseph0.46500
Ryder, Sam0.46400
Malnati, Peter0.46200
Jaeger, Stephan 0.46100
Hadley, Chesson0.46000
Lee, Danny0.36300
Higgo, Garrick0.36500
Putnam, Andrew0.36400
Clark, Wyndham0.36300
McDowell, Graeme0.36300
Schenk, Adam0.36200
Streb, Robert0.36200
Watney, Nick0.36100
Byrd, Jonathan0.36000
Gay, Brian0.26000
Herman, Jim0.26000
Kang, Sung0.26100
Piercy, Scott0.26300
Haas, Bill0.26300
Hahn, James0.26000
McGirt, William0.26000
Piot, James (a)0.26000
DeNeen, Morgan0.16000
Tway, Kevin0.16000
Brown, Scott0.16000
Werenski, Richy0.16100
Hagy, Brandon0.16100
Lebioda, Hank0.16200
Sloan, Roger0.16200
Hoffmann, Morgan0.16000
Trainer, Martin0.16000
Brehm, Ryan0.06100
Gligic, Michael0.06000
Love III, Davis0.06000

These projections are accurate as of 17:42 EST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

*EVERYONE*: There is extremely high ownership in the 7K range. The following golfers are at 5% or less.

Poulter, Young, List, Merritt, Frittelli, EVR, Glover, Wise, Lahiri.

The following are over leveraged- Hadwin 22%, Hoge 16%. McNealy 15%. Na 12.5%. Kuchar 12%. Streelman 11% Spaun and Knox 10.5-11%. Harman 10%

You may play some of the higher chalk in the 7K range, just know it’s harder to gain leverage on the field when you have 7 K golfers in the 15-20% and over range.

My picks for The RBC Heritage

Top Tier: Cantlay (Contrarian) Niemann

Mid Tier: Fitzpatrick (Contrarian) Fleetwood

Low Tier: Noren (Contrarian) Stuard

Out in Left Play: Kisner

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Dahmen

FR Leader: (Contrarian) Horschel

Be sure to check out Spenser’s and Stix (on Honeymoon duty) Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. Don’t miss out on the very popular and fun PGA DraftCast with Sia, Joel, Spencer (golf writer of the year) and this weeks guest Andy Lack. Find out who the experts will try and roster and who the audience will pick for their six man DK teams. It’s every Tuesday at 800 pm EST and offers intel and analysis on rostering the teams that can help you cash and take down your favorite tourney.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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What kind of jacket goes to the RBC Heritage winner ? Who’s the winner? Come on in.

The winner of the RBC Heritage gets a red plaid jacket that would make a used car salesman green with envy. They have managed to make it a top level tourney which is difficult coming the week after the Masters. Speaking of the Masters, I spent about 18 hours a day on programs and projections, this week I am making it up to my wife with two weeks on Marco Island courtesy of Draft Kings takedowns. This will be a somewhat condensed report simply because I don’t have to sleep with any of you or hire some stranger to taste my food every night.

Lets take a look at The RBC Heritage Final Ownership Projections to help you with your roster selections.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Morikawa, Collin22.310200
Hadwin, Adam21.87600
Fitzpatrick, Mathew21.39500
Henley, Russell20.39000
Lowry, Shane17.89800
Niemann, Joaquin16.39100
Thomas, Justin16.211100
Hoge, Tom15.47600
McNealy, Maverick14.87900
Berger, Daniel14.69600
Noren, Alex14.58300
Conners, Corey14.39700
Smith, Cameron14.210800
Simpson, Webb13.48800
Kirk, Chris12.98000
Na, Kevin12.47800
Cantlay, Patrick11.910000
Im, Sungjae11.89300
Kucher, Matt11.87800
Fleetwood, Tommy11.28200
Kim, Si Woo10.98400
Kisner, Kevin10.98100
Streelman, Kevin10.97500
Spaun, JJ10.77300
Knox, Russell10.47300
Johnson, Dustin9.710500
Harman, Brian9.67700
Hatton, Tyrrell9.48600
Varner III, Harold9.38500
Horschel, Billy8.98700
Kokrak, Jason8.17900
NeSmith, Matthew7.96600
McCarthy, Denny7.47200
Straka, Sepp7.17200
Pereira, Mito6.87700
Dahmen, Joel6.46800
Merritt, Troy6.47400
Howell III, Charlie5.97100
Spieth, Jordan5.89200
Stuard, Brian5.86700
Frittelli, Dylan5.47400
Glover, Lucas5.17200
Kizzire, Patton4.97100
Wise, Aaron4.87100
Lashley, Nate4.86700
Van Rooyen, Erik4.67300
Bryan, Wesley4.46100
Cink, Stewart4.37200
Poulter, Ian4.27500
List, Luke4.17400
Pan, CT4.17000
Svensson, Adam3.96400
Donald, Luke3.96300
Young, Cameron3.87500
Todd, Brendon3.86800
Riley, Davis 3.67000
Ghim, Doug3.56900
Hossler, Beau3.36800
Thompson, Michael3.36500
Theegala, Sahith3.27100
Tringale, Cameron2.97000
Lahiri, Anirban2.77100
Grillo, Emiliano2.76700
Griffin, Lanto2.66800
Snedeker, Brandt2.66800
Poston,  JT2.36600
Davis, Cameron2.26800
Stallings, Scott2.17000
Taylor, Nick2.06600
Smalley, Alex 1.96600
Norlander, Henrik1.96100
Stenson, Henrik1.86500
Furyk, Jim1.76300
Swafford, Hudson1.76500
Perez, Pat1.76400
Hughes, Mackenzie1.66900
Hickok, Kramer1.66500
Willett, Danny1.56900
Fowler, Rickie1.47000
Redman, Doc1.46400
Kodaira, Satoshi1.36400
Ramey, Chad1.26700
Higgs, Harry1.16600
Duncan, Tyler1.06200
Garnett, Brice0.96200
Grace, Branden0.96700
Lee, KH0.86700
Villegas, Camilo0.76100
Long, Adam0.76400
Martin, Ben0.76200
Johnson, Zack0.66500
Kanaya, Takumi0.66300
Reavie, Chez0.56300
Schwartzel, Charl0.56600
Nimmer, Bryson 0.56100
Hoffman, Charley0.46900
Ortiz, Carlos0.46900
Bramlett, Joseph0.46500
Ryder, Sam0.46400
Malnati, Peter0.46200
Jaeger, Stephan 0.46100
Hadley, Chesson0.46000
Lee, Danny0.36300
Higgo, Garrick0.36500
Putnam, Andrew0.36400
Clark, Wyndham0.36300
McDowell, Graeme0.36300
Schenk, Adam0.36200
Streb, Robert0.36200
Watney, Nick0.36100
Byrd, Jonathan0.36000
Gay, Brian0.26000
Herman, Jim0.26000
Kang, Sung0.26100
Piercy, Scott0.26300
Haas, Bill0.26300
Hahn, James0.26000
McGirt, William0.26000
Piot, James (a)0.26000
DeNeen, Morgan0.16000
Tway, Kevin0.16000
Brown, Scott0.16000
Werenski, Richy0.16100
Hagy, Brandon0.16100
Lebioda, Hank0.16200
Sloan, Roger0.16200
Hoffmann, Morgan0.16000
Trainer, Martin0.16000
Brehm, Ryan0.06100
Gligic, Michael0.06000
Love III, Davis0.06000

These projections are accurate as of 17:42 EST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

*EVERYONE*: There is extremely high ownership in the 7K range. The following golfers are at 5% or less.

Poulter, Young, List, Merritt, Frittelli, EVR, Glover, Wise, Lahiri.

The following are over leveraged- Hadwin 22%, Hoge 16%. McNealy 15%. Na 12.5%. Kuchar 12%. Streelman 11% Spaun and Knox 10.5-11%. Harman 10%

You may play some of the higher chalk in the 7K range, just know it’s harder to gain leverage on the field when you have 7 K golfers in the 15-20% and over range.

My picks for The RBC Heritage

Top Tier: Cantlay (Contrarian) Berger

Mid Tier: Fitzpatrick (Contrarian) Fleetwood

Low Tier: Noren (Contrarian) Stuard

Out in Left Play: Kisner

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Dahmen

FR Leader: (Contrarian) Horschel

Be sure to check out Spenser’s and Stix (on Honeymoon duty) Bettor Golf podcast on Anchor at Spotify. Don’t miss out on the very popular and fun PGA DraftCast with Sia, Joel, Spencer (golf writer of the year) and this weeks guest Andy Lack. Find out who the experts will try and roster and who the audience will pick for their six man DK teams. It’s every Tuesday at 800 pm EST and offers intel and analysis on rostering the teams that can help you cash and take down your favorite tourney.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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What makes The Masters so unique and special? Do you ever wonder why all the announcers speak in such hushed and reverent tones ?

It’s the only major to be held on the same course year after year. There is a ban on all advertising of any kind on the grounds. Sponsors who spend millions to advertise during the Masters are told they can have very limited commercial spots or go pound sand. They limit the tv sponsors to five only, with a waiting list hundreds of times larger. Some compare it to the Super Bowl, it is the complete opposite. Most folks in the stands aren’t rooting for the teams, they are there for the spectacle, the halftime show, and lots say it’s the commercials that draws them to the Super Bowl. The Masters doesn’t want any commercials but they relented to have a few many years ago when CBS showed up with a wheelbarrow of cash and national exposure. When you arrive at the course it’s like you’ve gone back in time. Not one single advertisement in sight anywhere, every fallen leaf is raked away, every pine needle is swept up for compost later. Think immaculate. Security will snap up any cell phone or camera that anyone tries to bring on the grounds, they are forbidden, as are any autographs once the tourney starts. Even the players understand the relevance of Augusta, normally their caps and shirts are adorned with sponsors logos and ads at other venues, try finding one of them at The Masters. Its just as different as night and day.

The course that Robert Trent (Bobby) Jones built used to be a nursery that was worked by slaves back in darker times. The horticulture still displays itself proudly throughout the course, it has stunning vistas everywhere that are 100% natural, no video enhancing is necessary or allowed.

The Grand Slam is every golfers dream. You must win the Masters to even be in that conversation for an entire year, it’s the first major as it should be. Unknowns play next to superstars and the history is so thick you can’t cut it with a knife. Bobby Jones, Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, Byron Nelson, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Ben Crenshaw, Nick Faldo, Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama, the current champion, just to name a few. All of them have been awarded the coveted green jacket which is presented to the winner by the previous years winner at the conclusion of the tourney. They are allowed to keep their jacket for one year and then they must return it, and can then only wear it when they are on the grounds. It has been that way for decades, and is part of the nostalgia, not hype, that makes this so special.

Amen corner, Arnie’s bench, the par 3 contest, which includes skipping balls across the the lake and onto the green for fun, memorable matches between Arnold and Jack, Tiger and Phil. If you follow the Masters there are memories you can recall in an instant. For myself it’s a personal one. I used to be a car dealer and would be present when Ben Crenshaw and Tom Kite would hold court at a dealership on First Street in Austin. I learned about their mentor Harvey Penick, author of “The Little Red Book” which gives lessons in golf and in life. It’s the biggest selling book in the history of golf.

How to take 5 strokes off your game immediately

In Harvey’s book he guarantees he can take five strokes off everyone’s game in a week or two, tops. Change the way you practice. Spend two weeks and devote 90% of your practice time to chipping and putting and only 10% to a full swing. If you do this, you will drop five points off your handicap, he guaranteed it. No one has ever asked for their money back, not a single soul. Aiming at something with your practice swing teaches you to square the clubface, don’t ever take another practice swing without aiming it at something. He was a gem, and coached Tom Kite and Crenshaw to US open victories, Masters victories, tons of regular tourneys and all three are in the Golf Hall of Fame.

Ben Crenshaw had won a Masters and was struggling mightily with his game when he hit the magnolia lane in 1995. He got a call that Harvey had just passed away and he had a choice, be a pallbearer at Harvey’s funeral or risk losing a shot at his second green jacket. He rushed back to Austin to honor his friend and mentor, and afterwards felt compelled to go back to Augusta even though he couldn’t get in until late Wednesday night and would have no practice whatsoever before the tourney began. Against every odd he won his second Masters and his collapse into his caddy, crying and sobbing, is probably the most raw event of human emotion I have ever seen with the exception of combat missions.

Take a moment, (two minutes and thirty three seconds to be exact) and go to youtube.com and type in “written in the wind” which is a brief look at what transpired in one week of the Masters 27 years ago, and realize there are many other stories about this storied major that in this writers opinion is the greatest tournament in golf. Period.

Everyone Sia’s first look at The Masters will be out shortly, expect many more articles and enhanced Discord engagement as we celebrate this week in golf DFS, the week of The Masters.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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This weeks winner has a first class ticket to The Masters next week. Want to see who it is ?

The Courses horses for The Valero Texas Open

This week we are in San Antonio, Texas, home of the vaunted Alamo and Davey Crockett, some pretty tough hombres called the Texas Rangers and a city with a deep heritage of Hispanic and Texan history. I’m 58 miles from the course and will be watching practice rounds today and tomorrow from the Valero Texas Open at TPC SA. Last week after watching the practice rounds at the Dell match Play in Austin I picked Scottie Scheffler to win the tourney, he was my top pick in last weeks article and that turned out ok. Hopefully lightning can strike twice.

The JW Marriott manages the course and it’s owned by AT&T. Greg Norman, yes that Greg, designed this course called the Oaks, and he brought on Sergio Garcia to assist as well. It is one of the longest courses on tour at 7500 yards and at a par 72. The rough isn’t very penal but long wayward shots will cost you due to the huge oak trees lining almost every fairway. Kevin Na scored a 16 on the par 4 ninth hole so accuracy will keep you in the mix. Winds will increase scoring as well, please check in with Discord later tonight for the latest weather. Don’t just rely on bombers either. This course was intentionally designed where all golf holes that rise uphill play downwind, all holes that play down the hills play upwind, and they don’t call this the hill country for nothing. Only one par 5 can be reached in two strokes, the others are 600+ yards and will require layups. The narrow fairways add to the dilemma but are softened by a not so rowdy rough. The course is Bermuda and Poa, over seeded like the Players and at Valspar.

Charley Hoffman owns this course, in the ten years of him playing here he has never missed the cut, and in his last five he has a win and two seconds, he has finished higher than 15th only twice in that ten years. He hasn’t been playing well from injury and says he’s good to go right now although he has come in before playing below base metrics, if you are a believer in course history then there is absolutely no one close to his record, Corey Conners comes in a very distant second. Some of the players who haven’t missed the cut in five years are Conners, Kirk, Streelman, Palmer, Kuchar, Glover, and JIMMY WALKER. (smile) This is Walkers home course, he has 1000+ rounds played here, the last time he won the Valero he beat Spieth by 4 strokes. He is a frontrunner for the Frisky Biscuit play.

This week Bryson Dechambeau is one of the top tier golfers in this tourney and we are fully fading him. In San Antonio you could say we have giant cahones. He already has a ticket to the Masters and this may be more of a shot tune up week, there are others who need it and probably want it more, NeSmith, Conners, Hadwin, Vegas, McNealy, Kirk, and Ancer come to mind as possible victors.

Lets look at the numbers to give you an idea on which “amigo” golfer could give you the edge you need .

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
McIlroy, Rory26.711200
Conners, Corey20.89800
Woodland, Gary18.59300
Kirk, Chris17.29400
Matsuyama, Hideki15.410800
Hadwin, Adam15.38900
Spieth, Jordan15.210600
Kizzire, Patton15.18000
Pereira, Mito14.18100
Vegas, Jhonattan13.98600
List, Luke13.78500
NeSmith, Matthew13.67100
Streelman, Kevin13.48700
McNealy, Maverick12.99500
Ancer, Abraham12.710300
Bradley, Keegan12.79200
DeChambeau, Bryson12.410200
Finau, Tony11.99100
Theegala, Sahith11.57800
Kim, Si Woo11.19600
Laird, Martin10.37500
Steele, Brendan10.27600
Lee, KH9.27600
Fowler, Rickie8.47700
Ghim, Doug8.27600
Riley, Davis 7.98400
Knox, Russell7.48300
Palmer, Ryan7.38000
Merritt, Troy7.37300
Smotherman, Austin7.26800
Spaun, JJ7.26700
Smalley, Alex 6.97100
Griffin, Lanto6.47500
Hoffman, Charley6.38200
MacIntyre, Robert 6.27900
Kucher, Matt6.17800
Taylor, Nick5.97300
Glover, Lucas5.97400
Frittelli, Dylan5.77200
Lipsky, David5.66900
Poulter, Ian5.37700
Hossler, Beau5.37000
Schwab, Matthias 5.27000
Stuard, Brian5.27200
Svensson, Adam5.16800
Day, Jason4.89000
Duncan, Tyler4.76500
Ramey, Chad4.67300
Perez, Pat4.67100
Rai, Aaron4.56800
Stallings, Scott4.47400
Lahiri, Anirban4.47100
Chappell, Kevin4.36700
McCarthy, Denny4.37500
Hickok, Kramer4.37100
Jones, Matt4.27000
Redman, Doc4.26700
Migliozzi, Guido4.26100
Lashley, Nate3.86900
Lee, Danny3.66900
Uihlein, Peter3.36000
Snedeker, Brandt3.26300
Sigg, Greyson 3.16700
Howell III, Charlie3.07400
Buckley, Hayden2.96700
Hojgaard, Rasmus2.87900
Pan, CT2.87200
Grace, Branden2.76900
Bramlett, Joseph2.76500
Donald, Luke2.66500
Wallace, Matt2.56400
Champ, Cameron2.46900
Martin, Ben2.36400
Barjon, Paul2.36100
Ryder, Sam2.26800
Swafford, Hudson1.96400
Clark, Wyndham1.96800
Moore, Taylor1.97000
Walker, Jimmy1.96200
Bland, Richard1.87200
Watney, Nick1.86200
Higgo, Garrick1.76600
Hodges, Lee 1.56500
Baddeley, Aaron1.56000
Westwood, Lee1.47000
Todd, Brendon1.46900
Mullinax, Trey1.46400
McDowell, Graeme1.36400
Aberg, Ludvig (a)1.36000
Stenson, Henrik1.26300
Villegas, Camilo1.26200
Werenski, Richy1.26200
Schenk, Adam1.16700
Rodgers, Patrick1.16600
Lower, Justin1.16300
Brehm, Ryan1.06300
Thompson, Curtis1.06100
Putnam, Andrew0.96700
Lebioda, Hank0.96600
Streb, Robert0.96400
Kanaya, Takumi0.87300
Lee, Min Woo0.86900
Higgs, Harry0.86500
Whaley, Vincent0.86500
McGreevy, Max0.76200
Hadley, Chesson0.76100
Kohles, Ben0.76300
Johnson, Zack0.76600
Garnett, Brice0.76400
Malnati, Peter0.66200
Stanley, Kyle0.66100
Reavie, Chez0.66600
Novak, Andrew0.66500
Norlander, Henrik0.66100
Poston,  JT0.66300
Wu, Dylan0.66100
Kang, Sung0.56200
Long, Adam0.56600
Haas, Bill0.56200
Hardy, Nick0.46600
Noh, Seung-Yul0.46100
Huh, John0.46400
Tway, Kevin0.46300
Burgoon, Bronson0.46000
Trainer, Martin0.46000
Sloan, Roger0.36200
Landry ,Andrew0.36200
Van Der Walt, Dawie0.36000
Kern, Ben0.36000
Jaeger, Stephan 0.26300
Hahn, James0.26200
Herman, Jim0.26100
Reeves, Seth0.26000
Gligic, Michael0.16100
Blixt, Jonas0.16000
McGirt, William0.16000
Cook, Austin0.16000
Kraft, Kelly0.16000
Stefani, Shawn0.06000
Skinns, David0.06000
ALL OTHERS0.0

These projections are accurate as of 17:54 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Valero Texas Open

Top Tier: Spieth (Contrarian) Finau

Mid Tier: Conners (Contrarian) Streelman

Low Tier: Riley (Contrarian) Smotherman

Out in Left Play: Lipsky

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Pereira

FR Leader: Laird (Risky)

You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been earning and earning week after week with plays featuring DFS leans, the top 40 thru the top 10 and the show includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening to their podcast then find someone that can assist you with sign language because you are going deaf.

Last nights DraftCast was a spirited fun lively draft that the audience did really well in, Sia’s first pick was a titan sleeper, so were his others. Joel went with a low owned good metrics approach and Spencer had the right stuff down to the sixth pick when Joel took Martin Laird away from him. When Joel announced he was taking Laird, Spencer allegedly said, “Keep Martin Lairds name out of your f*****ng mouth!” I honestly think if they had been in the same studio that Spencer might have slapped him, I remember something vaguely familiar but just can’t put my finger on it, oh well, I’m watching an old movie, the Odd Couple, I just really like Oscar…..

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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March Madness with golf clubs. Who wants to WIN ?

The Course and courses horses for The Dell Match Play Final Ownership Projections

This week we are in Austin, Texas, my hometown, I live about 2.4 miles from Austin Country Club, site of this weeks Dell Match Play. This report may be a bit late because I’ve been on the course since 650 am today scouting the competition, I’ll reveal more in Discord tonight.

Last night we had four tornadoes hit the Austin metro area from a bad storm system, luckily none of them got near the course, there was some property damage but no fatalities or serious injuries, winds got up to 75 mph and they pulled anyone on the course early. Today winds are still heavy, 30 to 40 gusts, stable at 25 mph. Tomorrow should be more calm as the remnants of the storm leave the area.

Tonight’s DRAFT CAST with Sia Joel and Spencer and the Model Maniac will help you traverse the match play format which is completely different from stroke play, you will hear the word dormy a lot. You don’t want to pile up golfers in the same bracket or the one they play against in the quarterfinals. Your goal is to get as many as you can in the semi finals. Its like waiting for prom until the last minute and you randomly pick a girl to ask even though she has braces, thick glasses, acne and a receding hairline at 15 years old. When you get to the prom, sit down, and she says…”I remember this one time at band camp”….you really want to be very careful with your last selection.

Lets look at the numbers to give you an idea on which Cinderella golfer could give you the edge you need .

These projections are accurate as of 18:04 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Collin Morikawa18.910700
Scottie Scheffler18.49600
Brooks Koepka18.49600
Patrick Cantlay17.910300
Dustin Johnson17.710200
John Rahm16.811300
Abraham Ancer15.87900
Justin Thomas15.611000
Matthew Fitzpatrick14.18800
Daniel Berger13.910000
Xander Schauffele13.29800
Viktor Hovland13.110500
Thomas Pieters12.86800
Tyrrell Hatton12.69300
Shane Lowry12.68600
Paul Casey12.29200
Kevin Kisner12.27700
Taylor Gooch12.17700
Cameron Young11.87000
Max Homa11.77800
Brian Harman11.37600
Justin Rose10.97000
Sergio Garcia10.88400
Louis Oosthuizen10.79100
Joaquin Neimann10.38600
Sungjae Im10.28300
Will Zalatoris9.98700
Tommy Fleetwood9.98100
Maverick McNealy9.86200
Robert Macintyre9.77300
Jordan Spieth9.69000
Webb Simpson9.57500
Billy Horschel9.48900
Jason Kokrak9.27400
Patrick Reed8.97600
Lee Westwood8.86400
Luke List8.76500
Bryson Dechambeau8.59400
Tony Finau8.37900
Ian Poulter8.36700
Russell Henley8.18000
Tom Hoge8.16900
Adam Scott7.88200
Sepp Straka7.87100
Seamus Power7.26700
Si Woo Kim6.97200
Cameron Tringale6.96600
Cory Conners6.87400
Sebastian Munoz6.86300
Christian Bezuidenhuit6.47200
Justin Rose6.26900
Keegan Bradley6.17500
Marc Leishman5.97300
Bubba Watson5.96800
Harold Varner lll5.66500
Eric Van Rooyen5.66400
Mackenzie Hughes5.27100
Keith Mitchell 5.17800
Alex Noren5.17000
Richard Bland4.96000
Lucas Hebert4.76100
Matthew Wolff4.76200
Min Woo Lee3.16100
Takumi Kanaya2.86000

These projections are accurate as of 18:34 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Dell Match Play Championship

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Spieth

Low Tier: Watson

Out in Left Play: Harman

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: N/A

FR Leader: N/A

You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been earning units week after week after week with plays featuring the top 40 thru the top 10 and the show includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening to their podcast, don’t even bother listening to any others, their intel is so spot on.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Want to take down a contest this week ? Come on in.

The Course and courses horses for The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections

Welcome everyone to The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections. This week we are STILL in Florida, where it’s illegal to be gay, happy or thrilled, the contest is at Palm Harbor, home of the Copperhead course at Innisbrook. This course normally ranks in the top 10 of most difficult, with the date being moved the last time out, it played easier and Sam Burns set the tourney record at 17 under. The last three holes, affectionately and accurately known as the snake pit are the toughest on the course.

Last week the weather was the headline at the Players Championship. I did well simply because most of my picks were in the early am draw on Thursday. Beau Hossler was a low salary high value play for me and he made it through that Saturday weather nightmare at 1 under going into 17, where he proceeded to put his first two in the water. Bye Bye Beau. My fade of the week worked, Cameron Young didn’t make it to the weekend. As my esteemed colleague Sia would say, “That’s Golf.”

One of the players I’m looking at this week is Abraham Ancer, he has placed 16th and 5th in his two appearances and he putts well on this surface. He was 11th in my model. I will have 25-30% of Ancer in my lineups.

Our fade this week is going to be Brooks Koepka, word is he is tuning up for the Masters and The Valspar isn’t high on his checklist. The Players was on his list and it just didn’t work out for BK. That should continue.

For this tourney coming on the heels of the Players Championship it has more top tier talent than it normally would. Pricing is tight and there are chalk plays in the 6 and 7K salary range which is consistent with a stars and scrub approach from most entries. It makes sense with Hovland and JT being at the top of ownership, if you play those two you have to go way down the board several times to stay under the salary cap. We have a rule 17 designed by Patrick that states you never take a golfer under 7K in salary that is over 10% owned. Rule 17 is right at 100 % in accuracy.

Lets look at the numbers to give you an idea on whether Rule 17 applies this week…..

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Hovland, Viktor25.110800
Thomas, Justin18.411000
Bradley, Keegan17.98400
Morikawa, Collin17.810700
Fitzpatrick, Mathew16.99000
Lowry, Shane16.89700
Hadwin, Adam16.47900
Knox, Russell16.18100
Oosthuizen, Louis15.99900
Burns, Sam15.79600
Johnson, Dustin15.610200
Noren, Alex15.18700
Ancer, Abraham14.89300
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan14.67900
Pereira, Mito14.37200
Kokrak, Jason14.29200
Schauffele, Xander12.710700
Kizzire, Patton11.97200
Woodland, Gary11.48500
Wise, Aaron11.27700
Hatton, Tyrrell11.19800
Taylor, Vaughn9.86700
Vegas, Jhonattan9.57500
Simpson, Webb9.38300
Dahmen, Joel9.27100
Watson, Bubba8.98800
Griffin, Lanto8.87400
Laird, Martin8.77200
Perez, Pat8.46900
Svensson, Adam7.67200
Varner III, Harold7.38600
McCarthy, Denny7.37400
Tringale, Cameron7.28000
Schwab, Matthias 7.17300
Taylor, Nick6.37300
Fleetwood, Tommy6.19100
Koepka, Brooks5.99400
Hickok, Kramer5.76500
Merritt, Troy5.46600
Kisner, Kevin5.48200
Hughes, Mackenzie5.37800
NeSmith, Matthew5.36800
Day, Jason5.28900
Pan, CT5.27300
Streelman, Kevin5.17700
Molinari, Francesco5.07500
Redman, Doc4.67400
Harman, Brian4.47600
Smalley, Alex 4.47100
Smotherman, Austin4.36400
Kitayama, Kurt 3.96500
Stallings, Scott3.87100
Kucher, Matt3.77000
Lipsky, David3.56800
Hoffman, Charley3.47100
Putnam, Andrew3.46600
Ryder, Sam3.37000
Haas, Bill3.26600
Spaun, JJ3.16900
Lee, Danny2.96600
Lebioda, Hank2.86600
Willett, Danny2.77100
Moore, Taylor2.67000
Percy, Cameron2.56100
Theegala, Sahith2.47200
Johnson, Zack2.46900
Ortiz, Carlos2.37200
Bryan, Wesley2.36300
McDowell, Graeme2.26700
Duncan, Tyler2.26200
Buckley, Hayden2.06500
Donald, Luke1.96500
Stuard, Brian1.96700
Wiesberger, Bernd1.87800
Mullinax, Trey1.86400
Grillo, Emiliano1.77000
Kaymer, Martin1.76800
Todd, Brendon1.67100
Kang, Sung1.66800
Walker, Jimmy1.56300
Hodges, Lee 1.56900
Schwartzel, Charl1.46500
Tarren, Callum1.46300
Grace, Branden1.37000
Long, Adam1.36800
Stenson, Henrik1.36700
Riley, Davis 1.36400
Sigg, Greyson 1.26800
Reavie, Chez1.26900
Poston,  JT1.16600
Stanley, Kyle1.16400
Clark, Wyndham1.06100
Bramlett, Joseph0.96700
Ramey, Chad0.96900
Lashley, Nate0.86400
Piercy, Scott0.76500
Huh, John0.76800
Schenk, Adam0.66700
Malnati, Peter0.66400
Garnett, Brice0.66300
McGreevy, Max0.56300
Whaley, Vincent0.56600
Burgoon, Bronson0.56500
Wu, Brandon 0.46500
O’Hair, Sean0.46400
Cink, Stewart0.47000
Wallace, Matt0.46700
Landry ,Andrew0.46200
Cook, Austin0.46000
Trainer, Martin0.46000
Thompson, Michael0.36900
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech0.36200
Herman, Jim0.36200
Hadley, Chesson0.36100
Noh, Seung-Yul0.36100
Reeves, Seth0.36100
Guthrie, Luke0.36000
Hensby, Mark0.36000
Kraft, Kelly0.26000
Barjon, Paul0.26100
Hahn, James0.26200
Norlander, Henrik0.26500
Jaeger, Stephan 0.26400
Novak, Andrew0.26400
Thompson, Curtis0.26300
Sloan, Roger0.26200
Gay, Brian0.26100
Higgs, Harry0.16600
Streb, Robert0.16300
McGirt, William0.16200
Werenski, Richy0.16200
Wu, Dylan0.16200
Hagy, Brandon0.16100
Uresti, Omar0.16000
Blixt, Jonas0.16000
fitzpatrick, a0.16000
Brehm, Ryan0.16300
McCain, Andrew0.06200
Kennedy, Blake0.06100
ALL OTHERS 0.0

These projections are accurate as of 18:04 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Valspar Championship

Top Tier: Hovland

Mid Tier: Ancer

Low Tier: Schwab

Out in Left Play: Wise

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Ancer

FR Leader: Kokrak (Risky)

GAMBLERS: We have our own secret named Sia who puts out his Secret Weapon play every Wednesday night in Discord with a 49-19 record, get this-it has to be a 6K salary player, must be under 5% owned, and MUST make the cut, and he’s 49-19. If you like OUTRIGHTS and FIRST ROUND LEADERS his record is 5 wins in the last nine tourneys, an almost unheard of 60% win rate for picking one golfer out of 154, at odds of up to hundreds to thousands to 1. It’s just like having a gold mine, without the shovel, a claim or smelly miners hanging around.

You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been earning units week after week after week with plays featuring the top 40 thru the top 10 and the show includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening, you are losing money. Period.

Last nights DRAFTCAST featured a spirited draft where everyone was taking the others favorites and everyone scrambled to adjust their six golfer lineups, so far Spencer and the audience have won a few with some very close contests, and a lot of subscribers have won money just copying a lineup in the DRAFTCAST draft. Don’t miss Sia, Joel and Spencer and the new format on Tuesdays at 800 PM EST. How hard is it to copy a lineup and enter it and go green for the week ? Watch and WIN !

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Want to win The Milly Maker this week ? Come on inside. You know you want to.

The Course and courses horses for The Players Championship Final Ownership projections

Welcome everyone to The Players Championship Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at TPC Sawgrass, the home of the Players and the infamous island green on 17, where even songs have been written about it, most likely the blues. This field is stacked, the deepest this year and the most top fifty players in quite some time. There are 17 holes with water in play, you could say it resembles the Honda with all the water, only the Honda greens averaged 7500 feet while Sawgrass greens come in at a miniscule 5500 feet. The rough is half as long as it was last week but it doesn’t need to be with water surrounding the course. Distance, accuracy, and especially approach along with a knack around the greens will help.

Speaking of last week, the top pick in my article, Mr. Scheffler, won the Arnold Palmer, All my picks made the cut and Danny Willett, the frisky biscuit, brought solid value at 6400 salary. He was listed in Discord where every Wednesday night you will find my risk play, along with Sia’s secret weapon play, which is 49-18 and has the harshest rules to succeed, yet he continues to amaze week after week. The course that Arnie built, with the wind built in as well, was nothing short of brutal, it was more of a survival mode than a test of golf skills, and the competition committee made no bones about why Arnie bought Bay Hill. Expect a major tourney to be announced there soon.

One of the players I’m looking at this week is Sergio Garcia, he has never missed a cut, he’s 18 for 18 at Sawgrass and depending on ownership, will be in 20-30% of my lineups. Si Woo Kim also has a solid record here. Conners, Poston and Ancer have each played here twice and all have made the cut both times as well as finishing 25th or better in each tourney. Of the three I favor Ancer, he plays well on Pete Dye courses.

Our fade this week is going to be Cameron Young, its risky because he is an elite ball striker, when they asked Sergio how he has made every cut, he said, “you will be forced into shots you may not want to make, you just have to make sure to hit it where it causes the least damage.” Cam Young doesn’t know where not to hit it at Sawgrass.

With so much talent on this course at the same time you will have to be different in your selections, picking the heavy chalk means you tie 80,000 other entries. The average ownership for winning the Milly used to be 55- 60 %. it is now 78 -80% due to the popularity and explosion of DFS golf. The last seven Milly Maker winners have come in at a 79% ownership average. If you have 110 % of ownership in your lineup you are pretty much dead in the water, that doesn’t mean taking six players in the 6K range, but having two or possibly three that aren’t pure chalk will diversify your lineups to give you a shot. You do not have to be extremely different, just a little bit will do.

Lets look at the numbers to give you a heads up, and see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Fitzpatrick, Mathew20.47700
Rahm, John18.411000
Berger, Daniel18.38800
Scheffler, Scottie18.29200
Thomas, Justin17.110400
Morikawa, Collin16.310700
Cantlay, Patrick15.69900
Matsuyama, Hideki14.79600
Schauffele, Xander14.59700
Scott,Adam14.38200
Conners, Corey14.27300
Koepka, Brooks13.78600
Lowry, Shane13.68000
Gooch, Talor13.37200
Horschel, Billy13.28100
Im, Sungjae12.78300
Kirk, Chris12.67000
Smith, Cameron12.39400
Henley, Russell12.37400
Zalatoris,Will12.28900
Hovland, Viktor11.410100
Niemann, Joaquin11.28400
Bradley, Keegan11.16900
Ancer, Abraham10.97600
Kim, Si Woo10.47300
Young, Cameron10.37200
Hoge, Tom10.27000
McIlroy, Rory9.810800
Casey, Paul9.77400
Noren, Alex9.67000
Burns, Sam9.57900
Garcia, Sergio9.27400
Hatton, Tyrrell9.17800
Homa, Max8.97500
Johnson, Dustin7.89800
Oosthuizen, Louis7.78700
Harman, Brian7.66900
Pereira, Mito7.56700
Woodland, Gary7.17400
Kokrak, Jason6.97300
Day, Jason6.77500
Munoz, Sebastian6.66700
Simpson, Webb6.47600
Spieth, Jordan5.99000
Hadwin, Adam5.86500
Leishman, Marc5.67500
Griffin, Lanto5.47000
Fleetwood, Tommy5.37400
List, Luke5.27200
Vegas, Jhonattan5.16800
Knox, Russell4.77100
Power, Seamus4.47200
Rose, Justin4.37300
Mitchell, Keith4.27100
Wise, Aaron4.16600
Poston,  JT4.16100
Laird, Martin3.96800
Lee, KH3.76300
Dahmen, Joel3.76700
Pieters, Thomas3.66300
Finau, Tony3.48500
Grillo, Emiliano3.36900
Kizzire, Patton3.26900
McCarthy, Denny3.16400
Hughes, Mackenzie2.96900
Hossler, Beau2.96500
Poulter, Ian2.87300
Kisner, Kevin2.67100
McNealy, Maverick2.37000
Watson, Bubba2.36900
Westwood, Lee2.27100
Molinari, Francesco2.16800
Frittelli, Dylan2.16600
Pan, CT1.96800
Varner III, Harold1.86800
Kucher, Matt1.76700
Pendrith, Taylor 1.76200
Reed, Patrick1.67300
Tringale, Cameron1.67300
Ryder, Sam1.56300
Todd, Brendon1.56800
NeSmith, Matthew1.46900
Theegala, Sahith1.47200
Putnam, Andrew1.46700
Herbert, Lucas 1.36600
Perez, Pat1.26400
Spaun, JJ1.26300
Palmer, Ryan1.17100
Straka, Sepp1.17000
Ghim, Doug1.16400
Streelman, Kevin1.06400
Jones, Matt0.97000
Moore, Taylor0.96600
Steele, Brendan0.96500
Hodges, Lee 0.96100
Johnson, Zack0.96000
Higgo, Garrick0.86600
Hoffman, Charley0.86700
Davis, Cameron0.86800
Van Rooyen, Erik0.87100
Wolff, Mathew0.86800
Buckley, Hayden0.86000
Ortiz, Carlos0.76400
Glover, Lucas0.76600
Reavie, Chez0.76700
Long, Adam0.76200
Lee, Danny0.76000
Snedeker, Brandt0.66500
Bramlett, Joseph0.66600
Merritt, Troy0.66700
Watney, Nick0.66200
Champ, Cameron0.57200
Stuard, Brian0.56400
Higgs, Harry0.56100
Hahn, James0.56000
Norlander, Henrik0.46500
Redman, Doc0.47100
Clark, Wyndham0.46900
Swafford, Hudson0.46500
Cink, Stewart0.46400
Stallings, Scott0.46100
Schenk, Adam0.46100
Wallace, Matt0.46000
Streb, Robert0.36200
Hickok, Kramer0.36600
Grace, Branden0.36500
Hadley, Chesson0.36400
Lahiri, Anirban0.36100
Brehm, Ryan0.36100
Lebioda, Hank0.36000
Jaeger, Stephan 0.26000
Sloan, Roger0.26100
Werenski, Richy0.26200
Garnett, Brice0.26200
Stenson, Henrik0.26300
Piercy, Scott0.26300
McCumber, Tyler0.26100
Tway, Kevin0.26300
Schwartzel, Charl0.16500
Malnati, Peter0.16300
Walker, Jimmy0.16200
Gay, Brian0.16200
Hagy, Brandon0.06300

These projections are accurate as of 17:52 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Players Championship

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Lowry

Low Tier: Ancer

Out in Left Play: Wise

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Garcia

FR Leader: Munoz (risky)

GAMBLERS: You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been targeting golfers that are making the top 40 thru top 10 and includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening, you are losing. Period. C’mon, get on board that money train !

Last nights DRAFTCAST featured John aka The PGA Tout. It is well known that John’s first preview and Sia’s initial look on Mondays are the most comprehensive in the industry and a must for DFS and betting markets on players. Last week, for the second week in a row, the audience, under Sia’s guidance, won and will now go for the three peat. Trying to stop the crowd will be Spencer, who did win two in a row and then had a second place, which would be the “Tiger Slam”. Joel went with pure ball strikers and had a defensive mind set as well, check in Discord and Twitter to follow the progress of who will win. For the fastest draft with the most fun and definite audience participation, check out the DRAFTCAST show on Tuesdays at 8 EST. There was some light hearted banter that the winner would win a trip to Augusta. It did not specify Augusta National, just a trip to Augusta. You could probably have a Uber driver take you around the block a few times and then you could set yourself up as a tour guide for those that did have tickets, or you could rent yourself out as a security guard for all the impromptu parking lots that spring up. You could also be a sign spinner for anyone, you know, just like the sign says….

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Who wants a takedown this week in Golf DFS ? Keep reading !

The Course and courses horses for The Arnold Palmer Final Ownership projections

Welcome everyone to The Arnold Palmer Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at Bay Hill, another tough test that plays like a major and we just found out that the rough is now just over 4 inches in length so accuracy off the tee, approach, and around the green will weigh heavily on who makes it or who breaks it. Hole #6, a par 5 with water has the dubious distinction of being the worst hole for double digit scores, as in +10 or more, of any course anytime anywhere on the PGA tour. The four par fives account for more than 50 % of the scoring, so you’ll want to target those par five birdie makers.

The greens at The Arnold Palmer are TifEagle Bermuda and play pretty close to what we saw last week. Speaking of last week I said that Ryan Palmer (who some industry pundits liked) would bomb. He finished two spots out of last place and provided no value for his backers. This week we feel Ricky Fowler is in the same mold, yes he made the cut, yes he’s back in Florida, he made the cut based on his putting, he lost strokes on approach and around the green which doesn’t work out to well for Bay Hill. He is a pass for us this week.

Last week we saw a lot of the Win Daily family hit some sweet money numbers as we continue to pound the weekly tourney, Showdown and the betting markets as well. On Friday night I was poised for four takedowns, gave some back on Saturday, and then on Sunday went up 8000 more and then….a couple of golfers named Kirk and Svensson doubled and triple bogeyed the bear trap and Berger bogeyed 18. I still managed four figures after costs but the sweats were incredible, it’s all you can ask for.

Many years ago when I was playing poker for a living, in a hotel suite rented for a week where players would play for two or three days straight, take a nap, eat and start over, I saw a one of a kind pot go down. There was 964,000 in the pot and it ended up where a straight flush beat four of a kind, the only time I ever saw that happen in over 20 years of playing cards. The man who lost close to half a million stood up, brushed his coat off and said, “I’m done. Thank you gentleman.” He pulled some cash out of his pocket and tipped the dealer and the hostess that cooked meals and changed linens, then he smiled and said, “that’s poker,” and then,…he left. Last week Sia started a catchphrase that describes what happened Sunday at the trap and is just like the poker game. The phrase is “that’s golf.” My wife told me that all I have to think about is when a golfer keeps me from a takedown is that it may have cost me 10, 20, or 50K and yet it may have cost that golfer 200, 300 K or one million or more. She was right, and….”that’s golf.” Stix, the co host of the best podcast on the planet, Bettor Golf, along with Spencer, who just won the writer of the year award, had at least 50K riding into Sundays DFS and it just wasn’t our week for a take down. Guess what ? “That’s golf.”

This week we have a stacked field with lots of heavyweights, with a course where they forgot to tell the groundskeepers to cut the grass on purpose, and more exciting opportunities for us all to sweat the big takedown, we have been pouring over models, stats and metrics since Sunday evening, we started as soon as Straka won the Honda in the rain. One of the stats to look at is ownership to determine how badly we want to roster a Keegan Bradley and is he worth it, does he bring any value. Let’s find out, shall we ?

Let’s look at the final ownership projections for the Arnold Palmer to see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Zalatoris,Will20.59400
McIlroy, Rory19.811100
Mitchell, Keith19.78100
Rahm, John18.111000
Casey, Paul17.78300
Young, Cameron17.47500
Fitzpatrick, Mathew17.29200
Scheffler, Scottie16.410600
Matsuyama, Hideki15.410300
Kokrak, Jason14.18400
Hovland, Viktor14.010800
Im, Sungjae13.99900
Scott,Adam13.79000
Leishman, Marc13.49100
List, Luke13.37500
Griffin, Lanto13.27100
McNealy, Maverick12.97800
Homa, Max12.48700
Munoz, Sebastian11.87000
Hatton, Tyrrell11.79300
Bradley, Keegan11.67300
Kirk, Chris11.47500
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan10.97700
Hoge, Tom10.47300
Conners, Corey10.37600
Horschel, Billy9.88900
Rose, Justin9.67700
Garcia, Sergio8.58100
Power, Seamus8.47600
Henley, Russell8.38500
Gooch, Talor8.18600
Burns, Sam7.98800
Laird, Martin7.67000
Tringale, Cameron7.48000
Woodland, Gary6.27800
Higgo, Garrick6.16700
Ortiz, Carlos5.96900
Willett, Danny5.96400
Fleetwood, Tommy5.87900
Theegala, Sahith5.87000
Putnam, Andrew5.66900
Rai, Aaron5.66600
Svensson, Adam5.26700
Na, Kevin5.17400
Pieters, Thomas5.17000
Wallace, Matt5.06400
Van Rooyen, Erik4.97400
Ryder, Sam4.96700
Glover, Lucas4.87200
Pendrith, Taylor 4.76500
Merritt, Troy4.67100
Kizzire, Patton4.26500
Hodges, Lee 4.16600
Hossler, Beau3.96700
Swafford, Hudson3.86300
Perez, Pat3.76600
McCarthy, Denny3.67100
Poulter, Ian3.57200
Fowler, Rickie3.46900
Wise, Aaron3.36900
Westwood, Lee3.17100
Taylor, Nick3.16700
Kim, Si Woo2.97300
Frittelli, Dylan2.96800
Rodgers, Patrick2.86500
Straka, Sepp2.87300
Todd, Brendon2.76900
Wolff, Mathew2.47400
Kisner, Kevin2.37200
Johnson, Zack2.36300
Reed, Patrick2.37400
Davis, Cameron2.26600
Spaun, JJ2.26500
Howell III, Charlie2.26400
Lee, Danny2.16300
Reavie, Chez2.16500
Ghim, Doug2.16300
Riley, Davis 2.06200
Moore, Taylor1.86800
Smalley, Alex 1.76400
O’Hair, Sean1.76200
Lee, KH1.67000
Jones, Matt1.56800
Steele, Brendan1.46100
Thompson, Davis 1.46000
Streelman, Kevin1.36800
Champ, Cameron1.36500
Stenson, Henrik1.36300
Watney, Nick1.26000
Mullinax, Trey1.26200
Buckley, Hayden1.26100
Sigg, Greyson 1.16300
Stallings, Scott1.16100
Grace, Branden0.96300
Schenk, Adam0.96100
Hojgaard, Nicolai0.86800
Thompson, Michael0.86200
Long, Adam0.86100
Barjon, Paul0.86000
Malnati, Peter0.76100
Herbert, Lucas 0.76400
Sabbatini, Rory0.76200
Lee, Min Woo0.66400
Snedeker, Brandt0.66200
McDowell, Graeme0.56100
Tway, Kevin0.56000
Kanaya, Takumi0.46600
Harrington, Padraig0.46200
Norlander, Henrik0.46000
Jaeger, Stephan 0.46100
Byrd, Jonathan0.36000
Whaley, Vincent0.26200
Lahiri, Anirban0.26000
Bennett, Sam (a)0.26000
Schwartzel, Charl0.16100
Piercy, Scott0.16100
Pak, John 0.16000
Koch, Greg0.06000
Piot, James (a)0.06000

These projections are accurate as of 17:24 CST, chalk will be higher owned in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Kokrak, McNealy

Low Tier: Keegan Bradley (his numbers here are just too good)

Out in Left Play: Martin Laird

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Sergio Garcia

FR Leader: (Risky) Laird

Last week on The Bettor Golf Podcast hosted by Spencer and Stix you would have heard them mention that they liked Sepp Straka, yes, that Sepp Straka who won it all. Kudos to them. Don’t miss Stix Hammer Kid play, its hit three weeks in a row and Spencer’s breakdown of the tourney is the most comprehensive in the entire industry. Look for the Bettor Golf Podcast on Anchor at Spotify.

Last night the PGA DRAFTCAST was giving away gold memberships, tickets to the big Milly, and passing out choice intel to help you make a mint in your golf DFS contests, as well as FRLs and outrights, Sia, Joel and Spencer were battling the audience for the best draft picks for the Thursday tourney, and to honor Spencer winning writer of the year, we left him Jason Day but he was too short on salary to pick him up, a good thing since Day withdrew earlier today. Spencer wins on that point by NOT picking Day, the man has the golden touch.

Sia will be releasing his Secret Weapon (dun dun dun) tonight in Discord, his record for picking a 6K golfer that everyone hates who brings value and makes the cut is 49-17, its stunning. Think about it, Sia could lose 31 picks in a row…and still have a WINNING record, name one other handicapper who can say that, I’ll wait.

Still waiting…..

Smile.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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The Course and courses horses for The Honda Classic

Welcome everyone to The Honda Classic Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at PGA National, one of the toughest tests on the PGA circuit all year with the infamous bear trap, a stretch of holes, 15,16,17 that use water and sand like a butcher knife to carve up golfers left and right. What most people don’t know is that for the past fifteen years, holes 5,6,7 have produced the exact same dismal results for golfers, +.638 over par for both stretches of holes. Add the coastal breeze and you have major like scoring conditions, water is in play on 15 0f 18 holes in this diabolical course designed by none other than Jack Nicklaus, in the last 15 years over 6200 balls have splashed, this is with the best players in the world teeing it up. In 2018 there were 516 balls that got wet for one tourney, that number decreased over the last two years and last year, for the first time in course history, not one golfer made it through the bear trap without a bogey. The combined score on the beartrap for the last fifteen is +4136 over par, that doesn’t include 5, 6 or 7 which play the same in difficult scoring.

If you are considering Ryan Palmer know that he has played the trap at +40, seven strokes worse than any other golfer, he also holds the distinction of most balls in the water as well. he does have some decent history at PGA National so I would consider him a boom or bust play, I say bust this week. Jim Furyk has had the least amount of balls that become fish food in his career at PGA national.

The greens at The Honda Classic are TifEagle Bermuda and play pretty fast. Its a huge change for golfers that have been playing on Poa for the last three out of four weeks. Positive putting splits over the last 50 rounds include “putts” McCarthy +43 strokes (+4 on other surfaces) Harry Higgs +24 strokes (+7 on other) Joaquin Niemann +23 (+4 on other). Negative splits over 50 include tommy Fleetwood -6 (+10 on others) Sungjae IM -4 (+10 on others) and Doug Ghim -23 (-2 on others)

If the winds present themselves all four days we could possibly be looking at plus numbers for the first time, keep an eye on Discord Wednesday evening for weather updates. Recent cut lines have ranged from +1 to plus 7, so the Friday cut sweat may need a calculator. All our models, projections and programs are numbers centric.

Let’s look at the final ownership projections for the Genesis Open to see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Im, Sungjae20.711000
Berger, Daniel18.210400
Horschel, Billy16.79600
Oosthuizen, Louis16.410800
Vegas, Jhonattan16.38500
Mitchell, Keith16.29100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan15.48000
Lowry, Shane14.89400
Kirk, Chris14.17500
Wise, Aaron13.88400
Rai, Aaron13.47400
Pereira, Mito12.98900
Knox, Russell12.78100
Glover, Lucas12.77400
Harman, Brian12.48700
Niemann, Joaquin11.810600
McCarthy, Denny11.77800
Young, Cameron11.68600
Noren, Alex11.49300
Koepka, Brooks11.310100
Fleetwood, Tommy11.19900
Swafford, Hudson10.37100
Thompson, Michael10.27500
Jones, Matt10.29000
Palmer, Ryan10.17900
Todd, Brendon9.67500
Woodland, Gary9.18200
Hughes, Mackenzie8.98300
Svensson, Adam8.97000
Pan, CT8.77700
Higgo, Garrick8.67300
Moore, Taylor8.27900
Hubbard, Mark8.06900
Sigg, Greyson 7.87400
Smotherman, Austin7.66800
Lee, KH7.67700
Hickok, Kramer7.56800
Ryder, Sam6.97200
Armour, Ryan6.96600
NeSmith, Matthew6.86900
Wolff, Mathew6.49200
Poulter, Ian6.27600
Smalley, Alex 6.17100
Fowler, Rickie5.97600
Straka, Sepp5.67400
Kodaira, Satoshi5.56600
Howell III, Charlie5.47300
Dufner, Jason5.46200
Steele, Brendan5.27200
Cink, Stewart5.17100
Higgs, Harry4.86700
Johnson, Zack4.77200
Taylor, Nick4.47200
Taylor, Vaughn4.26900
Buckley, Hayden4.26600
Donald, Luke4.16400
Reed, Patrick4.18800
Westwood, Lee3.97800
Villegas, Camilo3.97300
Streelman, Kevin3.87000
Ghim, Doug3.86800
Rodgers, Patrick3.76900
Hagy, Brandon3.46500
Riley, Davis 3.37000
Watney, Nick3.36600
Hojgaard, Nicolai2.97600
Pendrith, Taylor 2.87200
Poston,  JT2.76800
Hossler, Beau2.66900
Willett, Danny2.57000
Spaun, JJ2.46900
Schwartzel, Charl2.46900
Hodges, Lee 2.36800
Schwab, Matthias 2.27100
Frittelli, Dylan2.17100
Sabbatini, Rory1.97000
Hardy, Nick1.86700
Stanley, Kyle1.86500
Kang, Sung1.76600
Mullinax, Trey1.76700
Ramey, Chad1.77100
Schenk, Adam1.66900
Lipsky, David1.56700
Garnett, Brice1.46400
Herbert, Lucas 1.47300
Whaley, Vincent1.46800
Barjon, Paul1.46300
Stenson, Henrik1.37000
Harrington, Padraig1.36700
Huh, John1.36700
Kaymer, Martin1.27300
Stuard, Brian1.26600
Lebioda, Hank1.26500
Sloan, Roger1.16600
Wu, Dylan1.16600
Stroud, Chris1.16100
Bryan, Wesley1.06200
Seiffert, Chase0.96400
Tway, Kevin0.86500
Burgoon, Bronson0.86400
Streb, Robert0.76700
Jaeger, Stephan 0.76500
Novak, Andrew0.76200
Lashley, Nate0.66800
Uihlein, Peter0.66700
Walker, Jimmy0.66500
Cook, Austin0.66300
McGreevy, Max0.56000
Kitayama, Kurt 0.46400
Lahiri, Anirban0.46500
Gay, Brian0.46400
Haas, Bill0.46300
Herman, Jim0.46200
Reeves, Seth0.36200
McCumber, Tyler0.36200
Koepka, Chase0.36300
Thompson, Curtis0.36300
Werenski, Richy0.36200
Tarren, Callum0.36300
Noh, Seung-Yul0.36100
Wolfe, Jared0.26500
Lower, Justin0.26400
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech0.26300
McGirt, William0.26100
Kraft, Kelly0.26100
Creel, Joshua0.26000
Wu, Brandon 0.16400
Kohles, Ben0.16300
Van Der Walt, Dawie0.16100
Trainer, Martin0.16100
Drewitt, Brett0.16100
Morin, Alan0.16000
Compton, Erik0.16000
Gligic, Michael0.16000
Kozan, Andrew0.16000
Murray, Grayson0.16000
Knous, Jim0.16000
Lamb, Rick0.06000
Skinns, David0.06200
Westmoreland, Kyle0.06100
Gomez, Fabian0.06000
ALL OTHERS0.0

These projections are accurate as of 18:16 CST, chalk will be higher owned in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Honda Classic

Top Tier: Berger

Mid Tier: Vegas

Low Tier: Kirk

Out in Left Play: Todd

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Last week on The Bettor Golf Podcast hosted by Spencer and Stix you would have heard them sing the praises of Joaquin Neimann, the golfer who went wire to wire for a victory at The Genesis. These are the same guys that had a profit of plus 40 units the week before. Most professional touts will sing loudly at the top of their lungs if they score +3 units, Spence and Stix hit over 40 and keep doing their job of making money, real serious money week in and week out. You have to give the podcast a listen on Anchor at Spotify.

Last night the PGA DRAFTCAST had Jason Sobel, a pioneer in DFS golf, years ago he used to beat me in contests with 100 people, which was about the entire DK audience at the time, he and a guy named Jennings from Fantasy labs, now they are industry titans along with the shows host Joel, Sia and Spencer who have brought absolute dynamite picks to you at a level I’ve never seen in DFS golf. You have to catch the new format, its Tuesdays at 8:00 EST, it goes fast and its just plain fun. Catch it.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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The Course and courses horses for The Phoenix Open

Welcome everyone to The Phoenix Waste Management Final Ownership Projections. Down at the muni course they call it the Golf Garbage Gala in Arizona. We are in Phoenix this week for the biggest cocktail party on grass. Well lubricated patrons bellow out their appreciation or their consternation at the stadium hole, a par 3 surrounded by a wall of golf enthusiast.

There was a lot of social media chatter on the PGA putting out a video of Tiger Woods saying he didn’t know who or what a Tom Hoge was after he won the AT&T. It’s too bad they didn’t show the video of Sandy Lyle being asked by a reporter what he thought of Tiger Woods. Lyle said, “I don’t know, “I’ve never played it before, how long is it?”

Eighteen of the top 30 players will tee it up in Phoenix this week. Daniel Berger and Charlie Hoffman are penciled to play, Berger bowed out of the AT&T and Charlie barely got in a round before having to quit after another WD. I would use caution rostering either. Remember the adage “beware the injured golfer” is in play here, and it goes both ways.

For those of you who believe jet lag and fatigue are real, there is a group playing this week that just flew half way around the world from Saudi Arabia that include Dufner, McDowell, Herbert, Watson, Finau, Schauffele, and Harold Varner lll, who holed out for eagle from 92 feet for an amazing victory. Both Oosti and Adam Scott will be teeing it up for the first time anywhere this season.

Even if team no putt is on your list, you can feel better this week that the mixture of Bermuda, Poana, and something that would make a Scottsman stop drinking is responsible for almost 90% of putts inside ten feet hitting the bottom of the cup. The greens are much faster here and those figures are insane, but they are real. The word on the course this year is they are just as fast allowing mediocre putters a chance. So get off your butt and put team no putt in your pool and sit back and cringe/enjoy. There are only three par fives but they rank fifth in scoring when going for the green in two, last year 74 balls found the water on 15 and yet 40% of the field made par after the penalty stroke. Expect the entire field to go for it with a risk/reward factor like that. We will all conjure memories of Roy “Tin Cup” McAvoy this weekend. It also produced the second longest drives of any course last year as well as second most percentage of drives over 300 yards of any course as well. Forty seven eagles were scored as well, and this tourney has averaged at least 40 eagles over the last three straight. Long drives, risking a splash for the green in two and the ever present eagles should make for great viewing this week !

Let’s look at the ownership projections for the Phoenix Waste Management Open to see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Rahm, John23.211600
Scheffler, Scottie20.49100
Thomas, Justin19.711000
Henley, Russell19.18200
Matsuyama, Hideki17.910400
Hovland, Viktor16.910200
List, Luke16.97700
Gooch, Talor15.97800
Schauffele, Xander15.49700
Wise, Aaron14.27100
Conners, Corey14.18300
Oosthuizen, Louis13.98800
Simpson, Webb13.88600
Burns, Sam13.49300
Berger, Daniel12.39200
Pereira, Mito12.27000
Cantlay, Patrick11.810700
Power, Seamus11.28400
Watson, Bubba11.09000
Mitchell, Keith10.97500
Scott, Adam10.48500
Spieth, Jordan10.39900
Horschel, Billy10.27900
Hadwin, Adam9.26900
Ancer, Abraham8.87900
Perez, Pat8.77100
Homa, Max8.57600
Hahn, James8.46200
Fitzpatrick, Mathew8.38700
Laird, Martin7.96800
Putnam, Andrew7.97500
NeSmith, Matthew7.96600
Bradley, Keegan7.87200
Kim, Si Woo7.87500
Koepka, Brooks7.79400
Varner III, Harold7.67800
Woodland, Gary7.27300
Finau, Tony6.98900
Hoge, Tom6.78100
McCarthy, Denny6.57200
Eckroat, Austin 6.46200
Swafford, Hudson6.36900
Grillo, Emiliano6.36700
Lashley, Nate6.36700
Merritt, Troy6.27000
Ghim, Doug6.16600
Lee, KH6.17300
Grace, Branden6.07100
Fowler, Rickie5.97600
Ortiz, Carlos5.87000
Howell III, Charlie5.87200
Knox, Russell5.67300
Molinari, Francesco5.67000
Dahmen, Joel5.57400
Hoffman, Charley5.56700
Kucher, Matt5.27400
Wallace, Matt5.26500
Poston,  JT4.96300
Davis, Cameron4.77200
Kizzire, Patton4.76500
Dufner, Jason4.66100
Hickok, Kramer4.26400
Clark, Wyndham4.16600
Reavie, Chez3.86800
Glover, Lucas3.46900
Munoz, Sebastian3.46500
Steele, Brendan3.36500
Taylor, Nick3.26800
Theegala, Sahith2.96700
Todd, Brendon2.86900
Higgo, Garrick2.86600
Straka, Sepp2.76400
Harman, Brian2.77300
Noren, Alex2.77100
Johnson, Zack2.76800
Thompson, Michael2.66800
Lebioda, Hank2.66200
Kirk, Chris2.46900
Stanley, Kyle2.36400
Hossler, Beau2.26700
Moore, Ryan2.26300
Hadley, Chesson2.16300
Norlander, Henrik1.96500
Schenk, Adam1.86300
Streelman, Kevin1.87100
Piercy, Scott1.86300
Rodgers, Patrick1.76600
Long, Adam1.66400
Bramlett, Joseph1.56500
Kisner, Kevin1.47400
Jones, Matt1.47000
Stallings, Scott1.36400
Watney, Nick1.36100
Pan, CT1.36400
Higgs, Harry1.26300
Frittelli, Dylan1.26600
Snedeker, Brandt1.26500
Bryan, Wesley1.16200
Sloan, Roger1.16200
Hagy, Brandon1.06000
Malnati, Peter0.96100
Duncan, Tyler0.96200
Cink, Stewart0.96800
Herbert, Lucas 0.96800
Chappell, Kevin0.96100
Streb, Robert0.96300
Lahiri, Anirban0.86100
Lee, Danny0.86400
Walker, Jimmy0.86100
Ryder, Sam0.76100
Haas, Bill0.76100
Stuard, Brian0.76200
Sabbatini, Rory0.76300
Kang, Sung0.66000
Jaeger, Stephan 0.66200
Gay, Brian0.66000
Garnett, Brice0.56100
Noh, Seung-Yul0.56000
Donald, Luke0.46100
Tway, Kevin0.46000
McCumber, Tyler0.46000
Byrd, Jonathan0.36200
McGirt, William0.36000
Kraft, Kelly0.36000
Summerhays, Preston (a)0.36000
McDowell, Graeme0.26300
Trainer, Martin0.26000
Hocknull, Craig0.06000
Silverman, Ben0.06000
ALL OTHERS0.0

These projections are accurate as of who knows, I’m on vacation in Belize. It’s close to 5:15 here. Chalk may be higher owned by lock especially in the upper tier.

My picks for The Phoenix Waste Management Open

Top Tier: Deki

Mid Tier: Oosti

Low Tier: K H lee

Out in Left Play: C. Davis

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

One way I like to condense my pool is to listen to The Bettor Golf Podcast cohosted by the master of models Spencer and his partner Stix. It gives you a breakdown on the golf betting market and outright winners, you also get detailed analysis on Jason Day and Chan Kim as a bonus! It’s available to stream right now ! Everyone is raving about the subscriber/fan interaction with the yet to be named show hosted by Sia, Joel, Spencer and featuring coach this week. These industry stalwarts are making waves with their new format and its bringing rave reviews everywhere, even in Belize, except for one fisherman, who said, “don’t no maun, no nuttin bout golf man, just be catching the fish”… oh well, you can’t please everyone, just remember these gents are on fire! Tuesdays at 8:00 EST, the hottest new shows out there. Don’t miss them !

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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