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I hope everyone had a great holiday, nothing better than a Thanksgiving day with food, family, and football. With the mini-slate in our rear-view mirror and a Black Friday afternoon Showdown wrapping up, the Main Slate gets trimmed down to ten games.

The totals are disgusting again, with only a few barely breaking the 45 mark. Injuries have played a huge part in Vegas’ projections, but regardless we’re in here to cross pay lines. We had some pretty high totals for cash, as the chalk extremely well with guys like Tank Dell and Devon Singletary.

As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 11/26/23

Panthers @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 36.5)

Two rookie quarterbacks square off in Tennessee in a low total projected game, where turnovers and three-and-outs could lead to some poor performances. Will Levis has cooled down since his debut and Bryce Young continues to be untrustworthy for fantasy. But on the bright side, the worst run defense (CAR is 31st in DVOA against the rush) in the league will be hosting one of the bottom-of-the-barrel secondaries (TEN is 27th in DVOA to receivers). Adam Thielen ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) and Derrick Henry ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) have the best matchups on paper for the slate and may be hidden gems buried in a game with a nauseating total of 36. Thielen for GPPs, Henry on DraftKings is way too cheap and viable for cash games. Both defenses are also in play.

Steelers @ Bengals (+1.5) (O/U 35.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals host Pittsburgh in an AFC North battle featuring another dismal low total, mainly due to the fact we lost Joe Burrow for the season, and in turn the Bengals offense. The Steelers have struggled all year because of Kenny Pickett and former OC Matt Canada, but still sit with a winning record thanks to their solid defense. The Steelers DST ($3.700 DraftKings/$ 4,700 FanDuel) should be popular facing Bengals’ backup Jake Browning but will cost an arm and a leg.

In what looks to possibly be a washout with some rain in the forecast, Pickett may also cough up the ball and slip up too, so I’d have no problem rolling out Cincinnati’s DST ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) behind a charged-up home crowd. However, the Bengals have been fruitful to opposing running backs over the past two games, allowing a total of 246 rushing yards with three touchdowns. The Steelers’ dual backfield of Jaylen Warren ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) and Najee Harris ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) offer a paydown at running back this weekend on the slate, but only as a tournament play.

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5) (O/U 47)

Now we’re seeing some action finally. A potential back-and-forth AFC South barn-burner compared to most of the games this weekend. Both teams have been lit up in their secondaries through 11 weeks, facing weakness at cornerback (Tre Herndon) and pass-funnel-style defenses. The 47 total suggests another big day from the Texan’s C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell, who combined for 18 receptions for 319 yards and four touchdowns in their last three games. If you’re looking to pay up and pivot off the Eagles/Bills game, I recommend doing it in this spot.

Trevor Lawrence will be looking to repeat his best performance of 2023 from last week’s 30-plus fantasy point game, scoring four touchdowns with two himself on the ground. If Chef Stroud starts cooking early this Sunday afternoon, it will be all hands on deck for the Jaguars, especially for whoever will be on the receiving end for Lawrence. Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones will all face the beatable 25th DVOA against the pass defense on the road in Houston.

Honorable Mention: Nico Collins ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel)

Patriots @ Giants (+3.5) (O/U 33.5)

Probably the most vile of the weekend, the Giants and Pats will offer slim-to-none interest for DFS other than defense rostering. New York doesn’t get too excited for your hometown hero Tommy Devito, future Hall-of-Fame coach Bill Belichick is in town to do what he does best, expose rookie quarterbacks. However, the Pats still have not decided what direction they’re heading themselves at quarterback, as we may not know until kickoff. Big Blue’s defense offers us another path for DFS, I’m just not too sold on the price for a 3 – 8 team.

With a roster including guys like Adoree Jackson and a rushing defense that allows 135 yards/game, it’s tough to trust the Giants to hold down the home field. I’d rather invest in Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario Douglas no matter who is under center for the Patriots.

Bucs @ Colts (-2.5) (O/U 44.5)

I’m in and sold for this game to shoot out also. Whether you’re eyeing to pay down at quarterback or pay up at receiver, all the options lie in a dome in Indianapolis. Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans or Gardner Minshew to Josh Downs, just pick your poison in tournament formats, especially at quarterback. The Colts and Bucs have been beaten like red-headed stepsons over the season, with Tampa now averaging 270 passing yards allowed per game.

The Colts have also forgotten to stop the run, allowing just under 130 yards per game to running backs, with 12 rushing touchdowns. Rachaad White owns the entire backfield for the Bucs and should have a busy day while offering a mid-range option to smash at running back.

Saints @ Falcons (+1.5) (O/U 41.5)

This NFC South divisional game has me a little gun-shy about pulling the trigger for DFS. The Saints and Falcons each want to run the ball, yet both are fully capable of stopping it by allowing just over 100 yards per game. It’ll be a game relies upon the quarterbacks, whereas New Orleans has given the green light for Derek Carr to return to the lineup and Desmond Ridder to return from the bench to the start, but can’t be trusted.

Let’s dive into who’ll be in line to catch the back for Carr, whose mid-range price is tempting. Michael Thomas’ IR designation has earned Chris Olave the bulk of the job, and who knows about Alvin Kamara possibly getting even more looks from Captain Checkdown. However the salaries are not affordable, I’m leaning more towards A.T. Perry ($3,200 DraftKings/$ 4,700 FanDuel) as a spot for cap space relief. The rookie played 84% of the snaps last week and landed in the endzone for almost 12 fantasy points.

As for Atlanta, I’m only interested in the tight end position since the Saints continue to ignore the position on defense. Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith will see coverage that is 28th in DVOA to opposing tight ends. Nothing against second-year stud Drake London, I think he’s super cheap for a defacto WR1, I feel he’ll face a ton of Marshon Lattimore and his quarterback may struggle to feed him the ball.

Update: Marshon Lattimore is OUT

Browns @ Broncos (-1.5) (O/U 36)

Another low-balled total here where my mind drifts towards defenses and running backs instantly. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will see his second start of his rookie campaign against a Broncos’ defense that has significantly improved since their 70-point shellacking by the Dolphins. Expect a ton of Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt against a Broncos’ run defense that still lurks in the gutter (32nd in DVOA).

The Browns have also come on strong defensively led by All-Pros Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, allowing just 140 air yards with only 99 rushing yards per game. I’m hesitant to use anybody in a Bronco uniform for DFS in this matchup.

Rams @ Cardinals (+1.5) (O/U 44.5)

I do backflips in my mind when I see the Cardinals on the slate. Matt Stafford sits in a get-right position for DFS this Sunday along with Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua. Running back Kyren Williams is also expected back from IR after practicing in full all week, expect head coach Shawn McVay to get his guy back on track against an opponent that Williams blew the doors off of in the second half of Week 6 (158 yards/1TD).

The return of Kyler Murray for the Cardinals has given a shot in the arm to the offense, scoring 30 fantasy points in Houston last weekend. LA has been trash themselves covering against the pass, and abandoning opposing tight ends (24th in DVOA). Let it ride with Trey McBride as he continues to fill the stat sheets as one of Murray’s top options.

Chiefs @ Raiders (+8.5) (U/O 43.5)

I can’t remember the last time I saw a Chiefs/Raiders contest with a total this low. Vegas and the public have given up on Pat Mahomes in Week 12 after all the drops from his receivers, while their defense keeps them on top. I anticipate a bounce-back from Kansas City in Vegas’ backyard in front of some of the doubters themselves. All are viable for GPPs this weekend, especially Isaiah Pacheco facing a Raiders’ run defense that has been exploited all year long (132 yards allowed per game).

As I said above, the Chiefs have been lights-out on defense, so careful with drafting any Raiders on Sunday. Consider paying down at the tight end spot using Michael Mayer ($2,800 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel), who’s been targetted five times in his last two games, and finding pay dirt along the way.

Bills @ Eagles (-3) (O/U 48.5)

The Main Event of the slate is in full effect for the Phila area once again. Fresh off their Monday Night victory on the road against the defending champs, the Eagles look to put the league on notice by defeating another AFC juggernaut in the Buffalo Bills. Having the highest total on the slate, expect most of the field to make their way over to this matchup. Start your Eagles and Bills, the analysis is cut and dry so there’s no need to overthink it here.

Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen will be your payups at quarterback, and A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs will be the late hammers at wideout. Dalton Kincaid has broken out at tight end officially in his rookie year and will be in a smash spot against an Eagles defense that leaves the middle of the field wide open for targets (28th in DVOA to tight ends). Running back D’Andre Swift has reemerged on the scene and established himself in Phila as their lead back. A great value for the highest total on the board facing a Bills’ defense that has been abused by a pass-catching running back, allowing nine receptions with two touchdowns in their last two games.

Cash Core

• Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen
• Isaiah Pacheco
• Josh Downs
• Trey McBride

GPP Core

• Pat Mahomes
• Derrick Henry
• Kyle Pitt
• Mike Evans

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 12. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

Welcome back for another round of DFS, hope everyone profited last weekend. The Houston Texans continue to line the pockets of all their believers, as the matchup between the Bengals became a money-making shoot-out of the slate.

Week Ten was loaded with some ugly totals, yet we were still able to clean up in DFS. We were all over the slate with the top players from each contest, including underpriced studs like Trey McBride and Mike Evans.
Week Eleven will feature 11 games of some decent totals. The Giants, Cardinals, and Panthers are back this weekend to pick on, with a few late games to stack on that could lead to some back-and-forth action. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 11/19/23

Cowboys @ Panthers (+10.5) (O/U 42.5)

Does the Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones have NFL schedule creators on his payroll? They continue to have opponents served up on a silver platter as they take on the 1-9 Panthers this Sunday. Dallas will again take advantage of the matchup to beat up and down Carolina’s lackluster defense (24.9 points allowed/game).
Giddy up with the Dallas offense, including the scorching-hot CeeDee Lamb, who’s caught 34 receptions for 500 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. Don’t throw in the towel yet on Tony Pollard either. Take advantage of the salary drop against the Panthers’ pin-cushion run defense (31st in the league).

As the Cowboys should light up the scoreboard in Carolina, the Panthers will be playing from behind once more. The veteran Adam Thielen has been rookie Bryce Young’s safety valve all season, but the cost is now through the roof. Consider cheaper options like Jonathon Mingo and DJ Chark as punt plays at receiver in a negative game script.
mid this game does get out of hand, guys like Brandin Cooks, Jake Fergusen, and Michael Gallup could also be beneficiaries of another Dallas walk-thru-the-park NFL weekend.

Raiders @ Dolphins (-12) (O/U 46.5)

Miami returns home from an embarrassing loss to the Chiefs in Germany and sitting in the best possible bounce-back situation hosting the Raiders. Tua to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be expected, but the Dolphins anticipate reactivating DeVon Achane from IR this weekend as well. But as Dynamic as Achane has been, it would be tough to pay up for him at running back after the long layoff from a knee injury.

it was a breath of fresh air to finally see Vegas force-feed the ball to Devante Adams last game (6 REC/ 86 YDS on 13 Targets). The Raiders will ride the hot hand, winners of two straight games after the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, and continue to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers like Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs.

Bears @ Lions (-9.5) (O/U 47)

Now we’re cooking with grease. We love Detroit on the slate, especially against a Bears who will regain their starting quarterback of Justin Fields. Chicago may put up a fight in this spot with Fields back under center, giving us a little shootout potential in a weather-proof indoor contest.

The return of Fields rejuvenates fantasy relevance back into the offense such as DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Both have taken a nose dive during his absence and now that their salaries have taken a hit, I’m back in the mix with the Bears’ offense for DFS.
Detroit continues to be at the top of the charts for DFS for cash games and tournaments. From Jared Goff at home, averaging well over 23 fantasy points per game, Amon-Ra as his go-to guy closing in on 1,000 yards already this season (821), and the one-two punch backfield of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (combined for 193 YDS and 3TDS in Week 10).

Cardinals @ Texans (-4) (O/U 47.5)

Can the matchup get any juicer for the potential rookie of the year CJ Stroud? Marco Wilson and the Arizona secondary will have their work cut out for them this weekend as Stroud’s receiving core will be back at full strength with starter Nico Collins returning to the lineup. (Not that it matters as Stroud has made guys off the street fantasy viable…just ask Noah Brown).

As bad as the dumpster-fire defense of the Cardinals is, the return of Kyler Murray has given some hope for the offense for the rest of the season. 18 fantasy points are respectable for a running quarterback’s first game back from an ACL injury, and tight end Trey McBride was his biggest cheerleader. McBride had instant chemistry with Murray, catching eight of nine targets for 131 yards. Expect more of the McBride breakout in Houston, as they’re 26th in DVOA to opposing tight ends.

Steelers @ Browns (-4) (O/U 36.5)

This AFC North battle may set the clocks of the NFL back 60 years to the days of leather helmets. The Browns and Steelers could rely heavily on their running attack, as we know by now quarterback Deshaun Watson had season-ending surgery on his shoulder and Kenny Pickett stinks at football. The Browns have named rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,500 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) as their starter, who had a decent preseason and could be a value if he manages to scramble for some rushing yardage against a beatable Steelers’ run defense (22nd in DVOA).
All four backs of Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, Najee Harris, and Jalen Warren should see plenty of volume as the play-calling may lean heavily on each team’s running game and hide their quarterbacks. Pick your poison for a $5K RB on DraftKings and pair with either of their defenses, who feature the likes of Myles Garrett and TJ Watt awaiting for sack and fumble opportunities.

Titans @ Jaguars (-6.5) (O/U 39.5)

Trevor Lawrence has taken a few steps back this season compared to where he was last season, but he now has the perfect storm to make amends with fantasy managers this week against a Titans’ passing-funnel defense. He’s mid-range priced on the slate and offers some feeling of comfort with the matchup and previous performances last season. Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley have smash spots across from cornerbacks Fulton and McCreary, and we may even see a return of Zay Jones to feast after a long stay on the injured list.

Now Tennessee will also get a dose of their own medicine against Jacksonville’s run-stopping defense. Will the rookie Will Levis return to his debut self against a Jaguars pass funnel? That remains to be seen, but we all know where the ball is going… to DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry. All three will look to bounce back from a craptastic game out in Tampa, so a roster of any Titans would be a sneaky play in GPPs.

Giants @ Commanders (-9.5) (O/U 37.5)

Pump the brakes here in this one guys, don’t be rushing to draft too many Commanders against the pitiful Giants’ defense. It’s a divisional game where New York held Washington to only seven points. But with the departure of pressure from Leonard Williams and the atrocious coverage of Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks, we can predict Washington to get some revenge.
Start all your Commanders, especially Terry McLaurin who leads the team in targets (75), and a Brian Robinson-led backfield who will be missing Antonio Gibson from a toe injury.
As for New York well, if you believe in Tommy Devito, then fire away on a $3,500 on DraftKings Wan’dale Robinson against the third-worst secondary in the league. Robinson will roam the middle of the field and live in the slot, where Devito has been successful on completions.

Chargers @ Packers (+3) (O/U 44.5)

If only Jordan Love were a competent quarterback this total would be over 50 against LA. But let’s make some lemonade out of a few of these lemons. The Packers’ best weapon is Aaron Jones, and now that his salary has dropped I’m in with him facing the Chargers’ bottom-five run defense. Rookie receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have seen eight targets each in their last two contests combined. Consider them in DFS for some cap space savers and dart throws in GPPs as they have formed some chemistry with Jordan Love.

The Chargers will battle the injury bug yet again this weekend with even more receivers hitting the injury list, including leader Keenan Allen. With Gerald Everett already being ruled out and Jalen Guyton listed as questionable, They’ll have to utilize Austin Ekeler again. The Chargers continue to use the hybrid as a receiver as much as a running back, scoring over 20 fantasy points in his last three games. Also, consider Chargers tight end Donald Parham to inherit the bulk of the snap share from the injured Everett with his 6’8” body frame.

Bucs @ Niners (-11.5) (U/O 41.5)

The Niners at 100 percent capacity should steamroll their competitors yet again at home. Key pieces like Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel have proven to make a difference in last week’s annihilation of Jacksonville. Get your share of the offense this weekend as they face a Bucs secondary that has been a dumpster fire and is two weeks removed from the rookie CJ Stroud throwing for 470 yards and five touchdowns.

The Bucs stop here, except for Mike Evans, whose been the centerpiece of the Tampa Bay offense. San Fransisco’s secondary has been exploitable throughout the season, allowing just over 220 yards per game (25th in DVOA to receivers), but it’s hard to trust Baker Mayfield on the road against this hungry Niners defense. It’s Mike Evans or bust for me for Tampa, catching for over 450 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games.

Jets @ Bills (-7) (O/U 40.5)

Two AFC East teams struggling at both ends of the football meet-up in Buffalo, and I’m not too thrilled about it for DFS. Josh Allen has not been able to take care of the football, throwing picks since Week 5, and Zach Wilson has still been a deer in headlights under center. Rostering any either offensive player carries a huge risk, especially at their high salaries, consider using the Bills’ or Jets’ DSTs for DFS, with Gang Green giving a discount at only $2,600 on Draftkings.

Seahawks @ Rams (+1) (U/O 46)

To wrap up the slate we have a tasty NFC West matchup indoors that gives us an impression of some back-and-forth action for NFL DFS, an aspect we love to stack on in GPPs. Both secondaries have been toasted by their opponents over the past two weeks, and with Matt Stafford two weeks removed from his injury, we should see some fireworks.

Geno Smith had his first big game of the year throwing for 369 yards and two scores, but he may be without Tyler Lockett due to an injury this week. Great news for DK Metcalf and the rookie Jaxson Smith-Njigba to see an uptick in volume. Running back Kenneth Walker would also be in play as the clear bell-cow for Seattle.

Stafford at full health can breathe life into the Rams’ offense, with hopes of getting Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua back into full throttle. Back in Week One, we saw the Puca breakout (10REC/119YDS), minus Kupp while on IR. We should see a similar production game again as the Rams look to stay in contention for a playoff berth.

Cash Core

• Geno Smith
• Terry McLaurin
• Trey McBride
• Aaron Jones

GPP Core

• Tony Pollard
• Trevor Lawrence
• Mike Evans
• Donald Parham

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

Another week of NFL is in the books as we enter the second half of the season for DFS. Cash games were on the money for Week 8, as we stacked Jalen Hurts with AJ Brown, and then paid down at tight end with Trey McBride. But as we lose more teams to the byes and the KC/Miami contest is set up in Germany, our slate shrinks to ten games, but who’s complaining? The slate may look gross on paper with all the low totals, but there’s always money to be made fellas.

The field should sway mostly towards the Cowboys/Eagles contest as it’s the highest total on the slate. The salaries are inflated as usual on guys like CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Hurts, so will need to do a little dumpster diving on the less-popular games for value. As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 11/5/23

Seahawks @ Ravens (-6) (O/U 43)

Lock: Lamar Jackson

Lamar is a no-brainer at home, but is he against this revamped defense of the Seahawks after trading for Leonard Williams? Jackson will be chalky with a high floor due to his rushing ability of course, but the Seattle DST ($2,400 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is a lot more appealing with Leonard on hand to pressure Lamar. But who else can we decide on for this match-up? Gus “The Bus” Edwards has cemented his role in the backfield after scoring four touchdowns in his last two starts, sign me up for cash games along with Zay Flowers. The rookie wideout should see plenty of Cover-3 from Seattle, which will eat up for lunch. Seattle’s secondary is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, which would also serve the Ravens’ top pass-catcher Mark Andrews well this week.

Seattle’s DK Metcalf is another household name who can make a statement this weekend on the road. He’s Geno’s first read, and if he gets dialed in, it could be a long day for Marlon Humphrey. Low ownership for Metcalf so far, so he’ll make a great GPP candidate.

Cardinals @ Browns (-8) (O/U 37.5)

Tight end Trey McBride had a coming-out party with his ten receptions to go along with 95 yards and a touchdown. Should we lock him in you ask? Not so fast. The stat line was connected to former Cardinals’ quarterback Josh Dobbs, who was traded to Minnesota. Instead of chasing McBride points, let’s focus on the Browns’ run game. The Cardinals were smacked six ways to Sunday by Baltimore last weekend on the ground (see Gus “The Bus) and by Kenneth Walker the week before. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt could clean up for Cash games this weekend at their affordable prices for DFS, let’s keep it simple in this game.

We don’t want to be too connected to the passing games of both teams this weekend, especially for cash games. The Cardinals still have not named a starting quarterback as of Friday evening and Deshaun Watson’s shoulder has been a mystery all season. Although I would be interested in the Browns’ DST if the Cardinals roll with rookie quarterback Clayton Tune for some potential turnovers.

Update: Deshaun Watson will play with no restrictions, Clayton Tune to start at QB.

Bears @ Saints (-7.5) (O/U 41.5)

Lock: Alvin Kamara

Another week without Justin Fields at quarterback spells disaster in fantasy for any Bears until further notice. Tyson Bagent has not been the answer and pedestrian filling in for Fields since Week 6, throwing only one touchdown to three interceptions. If I go anywhere near this game for pieces, they’ll be in black and gold uniforms for sure.

Derek Carr is in a spot to smash his salary once again for the third week in a row, as the field just gives him no love for fantasy. Simply safe for cash on this weak slate where he can easily get you 18 fantasy points against a Bears’ secondary (26th in DVOA against the pass) led by whipping boy Tyriique Stevenson. He’ll see a lot of Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, with some Rasheed Shaeheed as well. Of course, I won’t forget to mention Alvin Kamara, just saving the best for last. He’s risen to the top of the RB list on the slate because of his recent play. Even though tight end Taysom Hill has been culturing goal-line work< Kamara has still managed to average 22 FPTS/game on the receiving and rushing production alone since Week 4. If you can afford him, use Carr’s check-down champ.

Commanders @ Patriots (-3.5) (O/U 41)

I’ve got some serious strategies for my builds this weekend for DFS, and it will involve this stinker up in New England. I don’t see too many points being scored, but the football will be moved up and down the field. Let’s start on the Commanders’ side of the ball. Is Sam Howell the real deal, the dude threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, racking up 35 DK FPTS. For a mid-range quarterback on this slate, if he can put up half of what he did last week, we’ll be satisfied.

How about stacking Howell on this slate, wouldn’t that be fun? Terry McLaurin has been a target funnel for Howell, with 32 in his last three games all while putting up double-digit fantasy points and still a bargain as a mid-tier receiver. But wait a second, I’m not done just yet on the stack, we’ll need some runback options.

Now that we know Kendrick Bourne is done for the year and Devante Parker is already ruled out, the Pats will be a skeleton crew at receiving bodies. Demario Douglas, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson are all in the mix for this contest, and all are cap-space creators this weekend. Douglas is a lock for Cash as the defacto WR-1 in New England, so expect a ton of ownership from a guy who’ll be carving up Washington’s St.Juste beatable coverage.

Vikings @ Falcons (-4.5) (U/O 37.5)

Trust nobody in purple this weekend, since the Vikings are set on starting the rookie Jaren Hall at quarterback. Until newly acquired Josh Dobbs is ready to take over the keys to the high-octane Minnesota offense, we’ll play wait and see, or maybe look into using the Falcons DST, although Will Levis carved up Atlanta last week. Tread lightly.

On the brighter side of the field, welcome back Taylor Heinicke! We finally may see some of the Falcons receiving core put up some relevant and consistent numbers. It’s a shame Drake London will miss the Heinicke breakout this weekend, but Kyle Pitts and Van Jefferson are still there to pick up the pieces. The passing threat is also awesome news for Bijan Robinson, who may see fewer men in the box now that Ridder has finally hit the pine. Fire up some Falcons for GPP’s.

Rams @ Packers (-3.5) (O/U 38.5)

It’s Friday, and we still are not sure if Matt Stafford is playing. If he’s out, so are we on any Rams. We have no idea where the ball will be going out of Brett Rypien’s hands, and head coach Sean McVay always has something up his sleeve when it comes to his running backs, steer clear.

Now as bad as Jordan Love is at quarterback for the Packers, he still manages to scrape up some fantasy value. Either by his legs or tipped passes into the hands of his receivers, he should hit value against LA’s awful secondary (22nd in DVOA against the pass). Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Luke Musgrave all grade well against the Rams in their Cover-3 scheme especially when they blitz. Great GPP options.

Update: Matt Stafford is out

Colts @ Panthers (+2.5) (O/U 44)

When I first saw this game on the slate, the first thing that popped into my head was running backs, here are my backs for Sunday! Jonathon Taylor’s touches and role have increased every week since coming off the PUP, yet Zack Moss is still hanging around. Facing the dead-last rushing defense in the league, I think we get some closure on Taylor this week, start him up for cash. Indy is no run-stopper either as they rank 31st against opposing running backs. Carolina has a new sheriff in town, and Chuba Hubbard will be starting over Miles Sanders this week, we love his pricetag.

New Orleans obliterated the Colts’ secondary last weekend, it’ll be the Panthers’ turn this Sunday. They may also be down their best corner Ju Ju Brents, who is still not ready to return to game action. The passing core of Carolina gets an even larger upgrade, and Bryce Young with Jonathon Mingo could be Milli-Makers this weekend. Very affordable price tags as opposed to the veteran Adam Thielen, who has cheated Father Time by rejuvenating his career in Carolina. Thielen’s high salary makes him a GPP darling this week.

The Colts’ rookie Josh Downs continues to turn heads and lock eyes with Gardner Minshew. He has not let down fantasy managers yet this season, racking up 40REC/473YDS/2TDS. Grab him while he is still under $6K on DraftKings, as those days are approaching fast.

Bucs @ Texans (-2.5) (O/U 40)

This game is just not jumping out to me whatsoever sorry guys, but roster-able pieces are in this match-up. The total and spread simply scream a tight, close game. Baker Mayfield has had a man crush on Mike Evans since Week 1, along with tight end Cade Otton. Rightfully so for him to be dialed into the future Hall of Famer, who should eat well against the Texans’ zone and Cover-3 defense.

The Texans have already ruled out running back Dameon Pierce not that it matters, as neither he nor Devin Singletary has got anything done yet on the ground. It’s been the CJ Stroud and Nico Collins show or bust in Houston in 2023, don’t expect much more from an injury-prone Robert Woods again. Perhaps Dalton Schultz as a punt at tight end makes some sense as he has filled the stat sheet in the past.

Update: Dameon Pierce is out

Giants @ Raiders (-1.5) (O/U 37)

On to the afternoon segments, the recently freed Vegas Raiders of the Josh McDaniels regime host New York with a healthy Daniel Jones back in the lineup. It’s the battle of the highest-paid future backup quarterbacks now that Jimmy Garoppolo has been benched and Jones is not too far from that scenario. I love both running backs in their situations. Saquon owns almost the entire volume (85% opportunity share) and Josh Jacobs saw 11 targets the last time rookie Aidan O’Connell suited up in black and silver.

We also might finally see Davante Adams breakout from his slumber facing an atrocious secondary of Adoree Jackson and Diontae Banks. Adams is a GPP gem on a team that may be force-fed the ball by an interim coaching staff looking to keep it simple.

Cowboys @ Eagles (-3) (U/O 47)

Lock: Jalen Hurts

The main event of the slate, where all the ownership will flock to DFS this weekend. Pretty cut and dry here folks, we all know by now where to butter our bread in Philly, Jalen Hurts, and AJ Brown. The duo has connected on well over 100 receiving yards per game since Week 4, adding five touchdowns, while still being underpriced on DraftKings.

The Boys will need another big turnout from Dak, and against the Eagles’ beatable man coverage, it should be another CeeDee Lamb day. Lamb ran up the stat sheet with a 12 catch, 158 yards, and two touchdowns against the Rams last week, he faces the 32nd-ranked secondary in the City of Brotherly Love.

If you’re looking to stack and pivot in the highest-totaled game of the slate, go, with Jake Ferguson, and D’Andre Swift. Ferguson is number two in the league in red zone targets (12) and Swift never leaves the field in big games (12th in routes run)

Cash Core

• Derek Carr
• Jonathon Taylor
• Demario Douglas
• AJ Brown

GPP Core 

• Sam Howell
• Jonathon Mingo
• Jake Ferguson
• Davante Adams

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 9. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

Already we are almost halfway into the season and for DFS we’ve been on point. In Week Seven we emphasized paying up for Mahomes and Kelce, destroying the competition while using the best at their positions with low ownership. The byes will take the week off, making this breakdown at full capacity of match-ups to dissect. The more games the merrier, especially for cash games and crossing that pay line.

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Week Eight will be a hearty meal of 13 games so I hope you brought your appetite, let’s cut right into this steak for DFS!

Sunday Main Slate 10/29/23

Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5) (O/U 41.5)

Locks: Jalen Hurts

The safest and best quarterback of the slate lies here in this matchup with Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel). It’s also a great game to stack with AJ Brown ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) who has owned a 40% target share, destroying every coverage in the playbook, and is severely underpriced on DraftKings. Washington has allowed 14 passing touchdowns so far this season. 

I wouldn’t mind sprinkling in some D’Andre Swift ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) either, a back who rarely leaves the playing field and provides a high floor of 16 FPTS/game. He’ll also be a contrarian play for Hurts and AJ Brown, expect some low ownership on Swift. 

If you’re looking to run someone back on Washington, it will be no other than the Eagles killer “scary” Terry McLaurin ($5300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel).  His ability to beat any coverage Phila throws at him with the unforeseen negative Commanders’ gamescript makes him very desirable at his mid-range price tag. The Eagles also struggle to cover opposing tight ends in their man coverage (32nd DVOA), so get Logan Thomas ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) in a build if you want to attack this matchup.

Patriots @ Dolphins (-9) (O/U 47)

Locks: Tyreek Hill

We all know by now what Miami will be up to for offense, get the ball to Tyreek Hill ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel), who Bill Belichick may have something up his sleeve for coverage. I wouldn’t bet on it, but if it does pan out that way for Hill, Jaylen Waddle ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) may see a bigger role on Sunday.

Vegas has the Patriots as big underdogs, so expect the passing volume to be heavy for New England. Kendrick Bourne ($4,700 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) has been the cream that has risen to the top for the Pats at receiver with 34 receptions and three touchdowns. Keep an eye on JuJu Smith-Schuster’s injury status too, because the rookie Demario Douglas ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has a chance to shine finally. A slick, cheap receiver play this week, even if JuJu decides to suit up.

Keep in mind this is a divisional game as well, so you should see some better defense against Miami. The Pats DST ($2,000 DraftKings/$3,100 FanDuel) is at the minimum price, making it possible to take on more elites in your lineups.

Jets @ Giants (+2.5) (O/U 36.5)

The MetLife Bowl welcomes both its teams in for a Week Eight battle for bragging rights, and the losers walk home on the New Jersey Turnpike. Anything can happen in this matchup between two struggling offenses, but the edge goes to the Jets ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) and their top-ten defense. It won’t be a high-scoring game, but it will be interesting. Big Blue will roll out with Tyrod Taylor ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) for a third straight week, as Daniel Jones is still not ready to come back… no rush Danny, take your time. Taylor’s veteran skill set and decision-making have breathed new life into the Giants’ weapons such as Darren Waller ($5,200 DraftKings/6,400 FanDuel) (12 REC/141YDS/1TD) and Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) (170 RuYDS/7REC) in only two games.

Gang Green on the other hand has been playing with house money, fresh off a bye and win off the Phila Eagles. The G-Men will have no answer for Garrett Wilson ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) in their incapable secondary and Breece Hall ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) when he gets the carries (Giants 27th in DVOA to the run). I like them both for cash, especially Breece, who is still under $6K on DraftKings and ridiculously cheap.

Rams @ Cowboys (-6.5) (O/U 45)

Locks: Cooper Kupp (GPP)

We should have a fantasy rodeo down in Texas as the Rams visit the Cowboys, gotta love the dome games. The price of poker has gone up on the superstars in this match-up, making them a hit or miss in a GPP format.  The field may not want to pay up for quarterbacks like Stafford ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Dak Prescott  ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) either this week, as they have become a little too pricey (Stafford is expensive on DraftKings, Dak on FanDuel).

It’s no secret, that Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) and Puca Nacua ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) own the entire Rams’ target share (30%/28%). Get them in your lineups if you are looking to be different.

In Dallas, it’s obvious to go with CeeDee Lamb ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) and Tony Pollard ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) but check out Michael Gallup ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) and Jake Ferguson ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel). Their snap share was through the roof (70%,86%) in week six and Gallup even saw 10 targets. There are great spots for both to recover fantasy value in a positive matchup. 

Jaguars @ Steelers (+2.5) (U/O 42)

This game appears to be a defensive battle on paper as both teams stop the run pretty well, especially with Pittsburgh possibly getting Cam Heyward back. So far there seems to be very little ownership flocking into either team, making Trevor Lawrence ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) a sneaky GPP quarterback. Travis Etienne has been getting all the work he can handle lately, he leads the NFL in carries (127) and adding seven total touchdowns. But again, it’s a tough matchup, keep him away from cash for this week.

Look for Calvin Ridley ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) and Evan Engram ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) to reemerge for DFS out of Pittsburgh’s man coverage, and plug away in tournaments. Kenny Pickett will be facing a pass-funnel-style defense against Jacksonville. So fade the Steelers’ backs and it’s thumbs up to George Pickens ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), who should feast against the rookie corner Montaric Brown filling in for Tyson Campbell.

Vikings @ Packers (+1) (O/U 43.5)

This contest, in a nutshell, looks like it could get ugly, especially with some wet weather on the horizon in Wisconsin. So in turn, we may see both teams running the ball more often, but let’s pump the brakes for a second on both backfields. 

The Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon experience have been far from breathtaking, racking up numerous single-digit fantasy performances. However, on the other side for Minnesota, Alexander Mattison ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) and Cam Akers ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) are golden against the Green Bay Packers 30th in DVOA run defense which has allowed 143 yards per game on the season. They split the backfield for the Vikings, so take your shot, and hope for the best. 

And if you’re looking to chase points from Monday night in Jordan Addison ($5,700 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) go for it while his price is still a bargain. The Vikings’ undoubted number-one receiver under $6K on DraftKings is criminal. 

Texans @ Panthers (+3) (O/U 43.5)

Looking for some exposure to your high-priced studs across the slate? Well look no further, the Texans offer a stack off the value menu featuring C.J. Stroud ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), Tank Dell ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel), and Nico Collins ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel), who is a lock for cash games with Robert Woods ruled out. Carolina’s defense has been like shooting fish in a barrel all season, they allow the most points per game on average (30). I wouldn’t mind getting a little fancy either by picking up Devin Singletary ($4,400 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) or Dameon Pierce ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) if you want to dumpster dive at running back. The Panthers rank almost dead last in DVOA (31st) against the run.

*** I love a C.J. Stroud who may be playing with a chip on his shoulder against the team that snubbed him for Bryce Young at No.1 overall in this year’s draft.***

Well as for the 0-7 Panthers, it’s slim pickings as usual. Chuba Hubbard was fantastic back in Week Six but with a healthy Miles Sanders, we don’t have a clear path against Houston’s terrible run defense that allows well over 100 yards per game. The Panthers have been all Adam Thielen ($6,600 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) this year, who has found the fountain of youth in Carolina. But the price has sky-rocketed from his production. I’d rather take a shot on a punt at tight end of Hayden Hurst ($2,900 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel), who could see plenty of check-downs from Bryce Young facing a Texans’ zone defense.

Falcons @ Titans (+2.5) (O/U 36.5)

Gross… just a gross all-around game. The run-heavy Atlanta offense will be forced to throw against the number-one-ranked rushing defense in Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Titans will be experimenting at quarterback between Malik Willis and the rookie Will Levis, hence the extremely low total. Mistakes will be made on both ends of the field, so both defenses (Atlanta DST-$2,900 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) (Tennessee-$3,100 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) are in play, as well as all the Falcons’ pass-catchers of a concentrated receiving core of Kyle Pitts ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), Drake London ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel), and Jonnu Smith ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel).

Check out Bijan Robinson’s ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) price after his headache forced him out of Week Seven, it hit rock bottom. I’d have no problem sliding him into a tournament this week since the field will abandon the rookie bellcow. When the Titans spread out the coverage, Robinson will be in line for his usual check-downs from Desmond Ridder.

Saints @ Colts (-1.5) (O/U 43.5)

Ahh, we love picking on the Colts, don’t we? Chris Olave ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) recently got pulled over for speeding this week and he’ll be burning rubber again this Sunday, except it will be the Colts’ outside cornerbacks (60 receptions given up this season). Hopefully, Derek Carr ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) can get him the football, otherwise, he’ll be check-down Charlie once again to Alvin Kamara ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel). The Saints running back may need a new pair of gloves soon after catching 35 receptions in only four games. All three are viable in GPPs as the ownership seems to be off of this game.

The Colts have been behind the eightball all year because of their defense, which is keeping Gardner Minshew’s arm pretty busy in negative gamescripts. Michael Pittman ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is the alpha, but the rookie Josh Downs ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) has become a favorite target for Minshew, as he’s scored heavily for fantasy, especially his last performance (5REC/125YDS/1TD). Take the discount and roster Downs over Pittman until we see the ball direction change.

In the running back room, Jonathon Taylor ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is beginning to pull away from Zack Moss. Although they both had 50% of the snaps, Taylor was the one who benefited with 21 fantasy points. New Orleans will bring the pressure onto the Colts’ passing attack, look for Taylor to see plenty of check-down passes in the flat against a tough Saints’ run defense.

Browns @ Seahawks (-3) (U/O 39.5)

The former XFL superstar PJ Walker will start one more time for Deshaun Watson of the Browns, who just can’t catch a break with their $230 million-dollar man. I have zero interest in any part of this contest, due to the fact of how well the Browns can play defense at times, and if in fact, Walker can move the ball down the field. Give me both Cleveland’s ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) and Seattle’s ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) defenses instead here.

Seattle should be getting DK Metcalf ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) back this week, so fire him up. This news brings the rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba back to earth, so let’s not chase points in this spot unless Tyler Lockett is ruled out on Sunday.

Chiefs @ Broncos (+8) (U/O 46)

Locks: Pat Mahomes; Travis Kelce

Finally, a game with potential on the slate. You have to appreciate the AFC West divisional games as we all know what to expect…chunks of yards through the air and touchdowns. It’s already Week Eight and the Broncos still can’t stop the bleeding on defense, paving the way for Mahomes ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel), Travis Kelce ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel), and Rashee Rice ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,000FanDuel), who has emerged as the Chiefs receiver-one. Running back Isaiah Pacheco has carved a role in the offense and is a set-and-forget play this week facing the wasteland 32nd DVOA against the run.

The Broncos may be looking to unload their roster walking as we approach the trade deadline, but their one diamond in the rough has been Courtland Sutton ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel). In six of seven contests, he’s scored double-digit fantasy points along with five touchdowns. Still affordable in DFS too, and a nice run-back option if you decide to stack the Chiefs.

Ravens @ Cardinals (+8) (U/O 44)

Locks: Lamar Jackson

Double down on Lamar ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) and the Ravens out in the desert this weekend, as he’ll look to build off his 33 fantasy point outing in Week Seven. Arizona has been the place to get back on the right track for opposing offenses this season, failing to stop every position in football (27th against the pass, 29th against the run). Mark Andrews ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel), Zay Flowers ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), and Gus Edwards ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) all make the cut for DFS in Week Eight.

If we have to pick any of the Cardinals, it’ll be Marquise Brown ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel). Since Week One he’s been the unmistaken WR1, racking up 32 catches for 342 yards and three touchdowns. He may be playing with a chip on his shoulder, with some incentive to make a big game statement in front of his former teammates in Baltimore.

Bengals @ Niners (-5.5) (U/O 45)

Locks: Ja’Maar Chase; Christian McCaffrey

The big news in the Bay Area was when Niners quarterback Brock Purdy popped up in concussion protocol in the middle of the week, yet he is still practicing. With no confirmation as of Friday, we may have Sam Darnold starting for all we know. This wouldn’t change anything for Christian McCaffrey’s ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) role, who would see pass after pass in the backfield. As for the rest of the offense, we’ll have to wait and see who is starting before taking shots on Brandon Aiyuk.

The Bengals off of a bye week could be rolling out the red carpet for Tee Higgins ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) to become part of the offense once again. If San Fransisco rolls out into their norm of cover two, Higgins will devour that secondary of Lenoir and Oliver with his superior size. Perhaps Cincinnati also worked on protecting Joe Burrow ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) a little better during their week off, at his salary he should be heavily owned and a paydown option for cash games at quarterback.

Cash Core

• Hurts
• Pacheco
• Collins
• AJ Brown

GPP Core 

• Kupp/Nacua
• Carr
• Bijon Robinson
• Olave

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 8. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass and get your first 7 days free here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!