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Sony Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Corey Conners headlines our Sony Open Betting Tips

Before getting into our betting tips for the Sony Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.

A couple of notables that just missed out on the card this week. Brian Harman was heavily considered, continuing his great form finishing The Sentry in 5th ranking 12th for driving accuracy, 16th for SG: APP, and 4th SG: Putt. He also finished runner-up at the strongly correlated comp course El Cameleon Mayakoba in 2023. He just misses out having not finished better than 32nd in his last 5 starts here, one of the most correlated courses on the PGA Tour for prior course form.

Lucas Glover 66/1 was 2nd for driving accuracy last week and 1st for SG: APP despite losing -2.10 approach on the 18th hole in the final round. He was narrowly left out given questions whether the improved putter will remain in 2024, after finishing 58/59 putting last week and putting weighted a little more than usual in our Sony Open betting tips. JJ Spaun, also priced at 66/1, was left out based on his course form here. Outside a 12th in the 2023 Sony Open, he has 4 missed cuts and a 47th to miss our betting tips.

Alexander Bjork was the final exclusion, preferred to another DP World Tour player also priced at 100/1. His lack of prior starts in PGA Tour events was a factor in missing our Sony Open betting tips, along with the continued ability to put himself in contention but never actually close out the win.

Sony Open Golf Betting Tips

Updated 9 Jan 7:00AM ET
Suggested Staking

Russell Henley
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Corey Conners – Sony Open Betting Tips Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds) Available at +3300 with 5 places 1/4 odds if you prefer

Brendon Todd
2pt E/W +4500 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Andrew Putnam
2pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Emiliano Grillo – Sony Open Betting Tips Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (Bet365)

Ryo Hisatsune
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds) Available at +10000 with 5 places 1/4 odds if you prefer
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)

Zac Blair
0.5pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +333 (TAB)

Sony Open Betting Tips Player Profiles

Russell Henley

For the second year in a row, Russell Henley makes our Sony Open betting tips. We get him at the same price as last year 25/1. Although this is undoubtedly a stronger field than in 2023, Russell Henley is also massively improved over the last 12 months. In that time, Henley has jumped from 41st to 10th in the Data Golf world rankings. To find him here at the same odds is great value.

Henley has a fabulous record at Wai’alae Country Club, including the famous win on his PGA Tour debut back in 2013. His course form reads 1-51-17-MC-13-MC-66-MC-11-2-32. He has since completed the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and Sony Open double, winning at El Cameleon in 2023. He also holds a 6th, 9th, and most recently 19th in 2023 at Harbour Town, 16th at Colonial in 2023, and 13th at the RSM Classic in the fall where he has also finished 4th, 6th, and 10th previously.

His game is perfect built for this test. He is one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour, ranking 1st in this field for the last 12 months. He is 3rd from 100-150 yards for SG: APP and 7th for SG: ATG in this field over the last 12 months. After a big 2023, I can easily forgive a fairly average performance at The Sentry last week where he has finished in the bottom half of the field in 4/5 appearances. I expect some sharp improvement, on a golf course which is infinitely more suitable for his game.

Corey Conners – Sony Open Betting Tips Favourite

It was a typical Corey Conners performance at The Sentry. The ball-striking was once again back to it’s excellent best, finishing 9th for both driving accuracy and SG: APP. It was his short-game which held him back from finishing higher in a strong field, but finds himself back at a course where he has gained significantly putting in half of his starts and is at field average for SG: ATG. Those are big increases to his baseline statistics on other courses.

That plays out in his results in Wai’alae. He has a record here of 39-3-12-11-12. Of confidence is he arrives this time after breaking a 4 year drought of victories in 2023. Valero Texas Open host TPC San Antonio is far from the worst course comp, where SG: ATG is also highly correlated to success alongside SG: APP, driving accuracy, and putting.

Another Texas event and correlated here is Colonial, where his form reads 8-31-19-20 in 4 starts. He also holds a 17th most recently at Mayakoba, a 4th, 12th, 31st at Harbour Town, and three Top 25s at The RSM Classic where he has never missed the cut.

As always with Conners, what happens with the putter will determine his results this week. However, his T2G game will keep in contention and his prior record with short-game at Wai’alae sees him as a terrific bet at 25/1 or longer.

Brendon Todd

Brendon Todd makes our Sony Open betting tips this week, aiming to become the 7th player to complete the Mayakoba and Wai’alae double. He won at El Cameleon in 2020, where he has also finished 8th and 11th. Further adding to his course comp performances is Colonial, where he holds a 3rd, 5th, and 8th, and a 4th at both the RBC Heritage and RSM Classic.

At The Sentry last week, he was widely covered getting frustrated and accidentally breaking his driver which you can find here. Moments like that often get over-played, and many punters and DFS players will take him out of their pool this week as a result. I’d say the frustration comes more from the fact he is actually playing pretty well. He completed last week ranking 7th for driving accuracy and 13th for both SG: APP and ST: ATG. That came despite losing 5 strokes OTT in the final round with the driver out of play.

Todd closed off 2023 well, finishing 6th, 20th, and 28th during the fall events and finishing 2nd at the John Deere Classic and 7th at the Wyndham Championship. Both of the latter are golf courses where driving accuracy are rewarded. Approach shots there are also analogous to what is required this week. Over the last 12 months in this field, Todd is 4th for driving accuracy, 3rd for SG: ATG, and 19th for putting. Over 6 month, he is a whopping 11th for SG: Total and 18th for SG: APP.

Andrew Putnam

Another who made these pages in the 2023 Sony Open betting tips, his price has drifted from 50s last year to 66s in 2023. That comes after he recorded his most top 5s in a season since 2019 and 3 more than the year prior. And he secured us a 4th place last year for a full place payout, to compliment a runner-up finish here in 2019.

Putnam has made big gains in approach since then. He goes from 29th for SG: APP when looking at the past 2 years to 3rd in this field over the last 6 months. Over the last 12 months, he is 4th in this field for SG: APP from 100-150 yards just behind Russell Henley. He also has a 3rd, 15th, and 20th around Colonial.

Part of the reason for the drift in odds comes off a 40th place finish at The Sentry last week. The course is not a great fit for his short-hitting. Deep-diving into his numbers shows little for concern. After showing some signs of rust in the first couple of rounds, he gained 3.68 on approach over the weekend. He also led the field in driving accuracy for the week.

Emiliano Grillo – Sony Open Betting Tips Best Value

Grillo is as far down as 80s on open in a surprise. The perennially excellent ball-striker really made big strides with his putter in 2023. That culminated in a 7th place at RBC Heritage (where he has prior runner-up) in a designated event and a win at Colonial, where he has also finished 3rd and 8th. That compliments his performance at Mayakoba, where he holds a 8th, 9th, 10th, and 15th from his 7 starts.

Again, I can forgive last week’s performance at a course, where he has only played once back in 2016 finishing 18th out of 31 starters. He did however finish the week 2nd in the field for driving accuracy. Over the last 12 months, he is 4th in this field for SG: APP from 150-200 yards.

Now ranked 35th in the official world golf rankings, he finds himself priced alongside the likes of Ryan Palmer and Alex Smalley. He is a class above those, and could go well this week at big odds.

Ryo Hisatsune

It will be the first opportunity for many to take a look at some DP World Tour players this week. Ryo Hisatsune makes the Sony Open betting tips just ahead of Alexander Bjork. You can find both of them at 100/1. However, I prefer the 80/1 this week with the additional 8 places.

As mentioned, Bjork just missed out partly due his inability to get across the line. The other detrimental factor was his lack of PGA Tour starts. He has already seen Hisatsune a few time on the PGA Tour and he has already impressed. He finished 10th at the Barracuda Championship, on a course that usually favours bombers, and 6th at the ZOZO Championship. That came behind the likes of Morikawa and Min Woo Lee, and ahead of players such as Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, and Sahith Theegala.

The talented 21 year old is the same age as Tom Kim. He could be about to burst onto the scene in a similar way. He was a prolific performer on the Japan Tour, including 3 wins in 2021. Hisatsune achieved his first DP World Tour win at the Open de France. Le Golf National will host the 2024 Men’s Golf at the Olympics. It is a fiddly course with driving accuracy and elite approach play key. That is the same recipe we need this week.

Hisatsune finished 2023 with 6 consecutive finishes of 21st or better with three top 10s. More performances like that and he could soon become the next big thing from the Asian tours.

Zac Blair

Finally, we wrap-up our Sony Open player profiles with another selection who made our betting tips in 2023. Opening at 300/1, he was cut to 190/1 by open. We can pick him up here at 200/1 after a much improved year.

The most notable result was a 2nd place finish behind Keegan Bradley at the Travelers Championship, a designated event. We had actually put him up the event prior at the RBC Candian Open at a whopping 1000/1. He unfortunately withdrew prior to tournament start with a minor injury, and then spiked a huge result when returning priced at 1500/1. His place money alone with 8 places at 1/5th odds was 300/1!

Blair suffered a long-time away from the game with an injury in 2020. He resumed on the Korn Ferry Tour in July 2022. He immediately arrived back with 5 consecutive top 35 finishes and a 12th at the Fortinet Championship.

Prior to the injury, Blair had a 3rd and 6th around Wai’alae in his first two Sony Open starts. He finished last year 7th for SG: putting and 17th for SG: ATG, typically weaker aspects of his game. He also holds a 14th at Mayakoba in 2020, 10th in 2016, and 23rd in 2015. Now healthy and off the back of a couple surprises in 2023, he is too long in the market at bigger odds than he started last year.

One and Done Tips

Finally, if you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article. Most One and Done golf contests will begin this week at the Sony Open. I have compiled your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive some One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. Even if you don’t play One and Done, it is well worth a bookmark to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year.

You can join me in the free WinDaily One and Done contest here. It is always fun and I look forward to a wee bit of competition in 2024!

1 year ago 0 comments

Sports Betting

Common Sport Betting Mistakes To Avoid: The 5 betting errors people make most often

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Frustrated losing money betting? Here are the most common sport betting mistakes I encounter

As a golf analyst, one of the questions I am most often asked is what I do differently to others. Fact is, the vast majority of sport bettors will lose money. Bookmakers are not in the business of losing money. Actually, Americans have lost a reported $245billion on sports betting since restrictions loosened in 2018. However, sometimes it is the things you don’t do which are just as important as the actions you do take. I have many years of measured and consistent profit in the betting tips I provide. My hope for you is that, if you do choose to gamble, you do so in a safer and more informed manner. Here are the most common sport betting mistakes which I encounter on a regular basis.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Great Expectations

First in the common sport betting mistakes I come across is sport bettors unrealistic expectations. It is great to have goals. It is fantastic to have a dream. Simply put, you are extremely unlikely to get rich quick from gambling. Any website or tipster who advises you that you can gain enormous wealth immediately using their system is lying to you. Yes, you might get lucky and randomly hit one very big parlay. But, in actuality, sports betting is a grind. Any edge that exists is in the margins and is, generally, small.

For example, take my results for the past two years. In the 2022 golf season, I showed a return on investment of +25%. In 2023, we had a return on investment of +33%. That 2023 result would be the equivalent of placing a single bet of -303. Of course this is spread across an entire year, therefore lowering your risk compared to placing one rather large bet.

Sure, those results exceed the performance of the S&P 500. But, that is the result of years of gradual progress. And it places my results in some of the best and most consistent in the golf betting industry.

Therefore, sports gambling should primarily be for fun. You should never, ever, bet more than you can afford to lose. Bankroll management is key. Your maximum bet size should not exceed 1-2% of your total funds you are prepared to invest. Approach it responsibly and with the full knowledge that you could lose everything you put in.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Gambler’s fallacy

Another common sport betting mistake is known as the gambler’s fallacy. In short, many gamblers believe that prior results mean a future result is near guaranteed to happen. Roulette provides perhaps the easiest analogy. If a black number has fallen 7 times in a row, some gamblers will believe that the next number should surely be red. After all, the roulette wheel will fall on red and black roughly the same percentage of the time right?

The fact is, each spin of the roulette wheel is a completely independent event. The wheel does not remember that the last 7 spins were black. Your odds are still exactly the same. For red or black, that is 48.65% for a single zero wheel (and don’t even get me started on people who choose to play a wheel with two zeroes!) Over a long period of time, it will trend towards that number. But most gamblers seem to think in a very short timeframe.

Of course, in sport betting, recent form is still a very important factor to consider. However, you should focus on self-awareness and avoid falling into the trap of gambler’s fallacy. No golfer is ever “due” to win. Also, just because a golfer won last week doesn’t mean they are less likely to win the following week because they got their “usual” one win for the year. Each tournament is a new event, on a different golf course, in variable conditions, and with a new field. Your bets should be based in evidence and research. Be precise and measured in your approach.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Convoluting probability and value

Perhaps the most common error I find sport bettors making is confusing probability and value. First, we need to understand what expected value is. This uses elements of game theory and implied probability.

Every time you place a bet, that bet has an expected value. Going back to the roulette example, on a single zero wheel the expected value is -2.7%. That is to say that, over time, you can expect to lose 2.7% of your gambled amount. This is calculated as the 37 possible numbers on the wheel, where 19 results being losing bets and the other 18 being where you double your amount bet.

The only way to consistently win at sport betting is to place bets with a positive expected value. My role is to provide you with selections where the odds on offer are not a fair reflection of the golfer’s actual chances. For example, if Rory McIlroy is given odds of +1900 to win a golf tournament, the bookmaker is saying he has a 5% chance to win that tournament. However, if our research and projections show that he actually has a 7% chance to win the tournament then an opportunity exists. That +2% difference between the implied odds and the projected probability is the small margins I allude to.

I often find people confuse probability and value. Some will make statements claiming a certain golfer will never win. Others will say that one golfer is much more likely to win than another. Those statements can both be true. However, the odds often reflect this reality. The better golfer is more than likely lower odds as a result. Instead, you are better to simply remain focused whether each set of odds truly reflect the probability of that event occurring.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Not tracking results

It amazes me how many sports bettors do not track their bets. And that likely means that you actually already know you are losing money sport betting.

Unfortunately, this is also all too common from multiple touts. I surmise that, more often than not, the reason they don’t is because they are afraid to look. Find tipsters that you respect and enjoy reading, but also look for those that transparently publish their profit and loss for better or worse.

Can you imagine a business that never calculated what it was spending and what it revenue was? Undoubtedly, the future of that business would be untenable. You should take the same approach with your sport betting. Be transparent and honest with yourself. If you are ok losing money sport betting and are doing so responsibly whilst gaining enjoyment, then that is fine. That is something for you to decide. If you are determined to try make a little money sport betting, then you should know where you are to determine where you are trying to go.

Sportsbooks will produce a profit and loss statement for you. I prefer a more manual approach, as there is useful data to be gained from knowing specifically what type of bets win and learning from mistakes I’ve made. Either way, you should know what you are spending and where.

A New Year & a fresh P/L sheet💥🥳
Always a bit nerve-wracking wiping the slate😬

2023 final P/L below. Using $10 units, you profited over $9,000 w. ROI +33%

Guaranteed best deal is still on: $240 for 2024!
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Code: DEEPDIVEDEAL#golfbetting #golfbets pic.twitter.com/4QVrmcBHgx
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) December 31, 2023

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Going on “gut feeling”

Let’s face it. Sportsbooks likely know more than you do. After all, it is their job and sole reason for existence. They have teams of highly skilled experts covering every sport, limiting their exposure, and complicated algorithms to project likely outcomes. They are likely investing more time into research and models than you are. If not for time, their models are likely better than yours.

Have you accurately assessed every golfer in the field, the type of golf course they are playing, what the weather conditions will be, and any and all other factors potentially impacting on the event? Hand on heart, I would struggle to ever say I’ve taken every single possible factor into account. Some factors are also simply unknown. Take when Erik Van Rooyen won for us in 2023 at 80/1. I had no idea when I recommended the bet that this factor was in play:

Scottie Scheffler doesn’t care about that funny feeling in your stomach that tells you he is going to play well this week. Too often, I see people celebrating bets they won which they placed on a “hunch”. You should avoid like the plague any touts who use language like “I’ve got a feeling” too often. Sports betting isn’t based on feelings. In fact, it should be as emotionless as possible.

Don’t bet on players because you like them and think you are a successful sport bettor. Conversely, don’t fade players simply because you dislike them. It should be a statistical and analytical approach. You are looking for opportunities where the chance of the golfer winning is greater than their odds suggest.

Avoiding common sport betting mistakes

Stick to a system

Much akin to tracking your bets, you should also be methodical in your approach to sport betting. One big error I see punters make is placing too many bets. Just because a tournament is on, doesn’t mean that you have to bet it. In certain events, I won’t produce any tips. Commonly, this is because the field is too small and there exists no statistical edge to any bet as the hold the books have is simply too strong. In other circumstances, we might have poor or incomplete date for many golfers in a weaker field as they do not play enough higher profile tournaments.

Following a system prevents such errors as suddenly betting significantly more after a big win. Infinitely worse is those who are chasing losses. When you’ve lost more money than you are comfortable, you need to appreciate that the money is gone. Throwing more money on the fire is rarely going to put it out. Instead, take the time to reflect on your gambling and whether it is at a level that is actually sustainable and safe for you.

By being consistent and methodical in your approach, you can mitigate this risk. I follow a system with clear unit sizing based on the perceived edge we have between the implied odds and projected probability. I typically select between 5-8 golfers each week where the highest expected value exists. This does not vary week to week. As you increase your bankroll, you can begin to slowly increase your stake as long as you remain below your total weekly limit of % of your bankroll.

Shop your odds

It should go without saying, but you need to shop your odds. I appreciate this can be frustrating, as it often results in needing multiple accounts with different bookmakers to obtain the best odds.

However, as already noted, we so often operate under small margins in sport betting. The difference between a golfer being priced +2000 and +2500 looks small on paper. What that really means is you have given up a free 1% of implied probability. The lower the odds, the smaller deviation from the best odds is required to provide a rather substantial difference.

This cuts directly into your margin and potential profit. There are many websites out there which will give you an overview of what odds each bookmaker is offering for an event. Use them.

With all my selections, I provide detailed information of the exact odds used and where they were obtained at time of publication. This makes it easy for you and gives you the peace of mind that you’re backing a selection with a positive expected value.

If you can find better odds than I have published at another reputable bookmaker, then even better! But do be careful with golf betting and place terms for each-way bets, as these can affect the implied probability even though the headline number may be the same.

Take yourself out of the equation

If you are determined to be a better sports bettor, one of the best things you can do is to invest in a WinDaily Sports premium membership.

Yes, my selections have been proven to be profitable over a substantial period. I don’t promise that you will get rich quick. But, we have shown to turn a profit consistently over time and I can guarantee you will have fun along the way. You can have all the thrill of cheering on your golfers each week, with less risk and time than doing the extensive research required yourself.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

However, one of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel.
You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with myself and others, as well as asking me directly any questions you have.

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1 year ago 0 comments

PGA LIV Tour Golf

LIV PGA Tour merger talks delayed: What does 2024 hold for the future of golf?

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Jon Rahm announcing he signed with LIV Golf shocked the golfing world and disrupted LIV PGA Tour merger talks

In a move widely expected, given the imminent arrival of the self-imposed 31 December deadline, The Telegraph is now reporting that merger talks between LIV and PGA Tour will be extended. Obviously, this is no surprise for many. The 6 June shock announcement from the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund and the PGA Tour to lay down their weapons and move towards a reunification of golf was surprisingly light on any detail. With rumours that meetings were still to occur all through December, including a “final” meeting on the D-Day of 31 December itself, an outcome in time for 2024 seemed unlikely.

Further, contributing to the delay were antitrust investigations into the deal by the U.S. Justice Department and the emergence of the Strategic Sports Group as another potential investor. And, of course, the shock announcement that Jon Rahm had decided to sign with LIV Golf rocking the golf world. Make no bones about it; securing the scalp of Jon Rahm was a major boon for LIV Golf. It was his Masters victory which likely made the defection easier to stomach for Rahm. It granted him multiple years with guaranteed entry to all four majors. With LIV denied OWGR points, due a lack of clear pathways for earning (or losing) a card other than answering the phone, certainty of major entries was essential for Rahm. Further, it is speculated Rahm had become disillusioned with leadership from the negotiating team and, particularly, Patrick Cantlay’s emergence as a supposed leading voice in those talks.

It’s fair that golf fans have grown restless, frustrated, and despondent for the continual disruptions. So fans find themselves once again asking the question: what now for the future of professional golf?

Scenario 1: LIV PGA Tour merger confirmed in 2024

Perhaps the most likely outcome is that at some point in early 2024 the LIV PGA Tour merger is finally confirmed. Speculation is that the new deadline will be moved to end of March, before the latest LIV defector Jon Rahm defends his green jacket at the 2024 Masters.

What the Rahm move means is the onus is now on the PGA Tour to find a solution. Losing one of the four biggest names in the sport is a golf ball sized pill to swallow. The thought of two of their flagship events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, being without their defending champion is a bad look. Rahm is one of the few names in golf that actually move the needle in viewership.

The exact shape of that deal remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, team golf would form an element. Several LIV contracts have included equity in their respective teams for their key signings. The best scenario for fans would likely see LIV move to a team only format, drawing on players from both the PGA and DP World Tours. The current LIV format is messy, confusing, and the viewership numbers show it has simply not connected with fans in the way they hoped. Separating team golf and individual golf would provide clarity.

Most importantly for fans, it would see the best golfers play together more often. Otherwise, the sport risks becoming tennis where the major championships are the only time the best all compete. Or worse, boxing where fans are left to contemplate what title really matters. The merger remains a very possible resolution. And one which could see Jon Rahm get his $USD500m cake and be able to eat it too.

Scenario 2: PGA Tour and Strategic Sports Group form a new deal

Another possibility is that the PGA Tour utilise the expiration of the 31 December deadline and the DOJ investigation to back out of the LIV PGA Tour merger. The emergence of another potential investor was not expected. However, it became clear this was a preference for the PGA Tour when players gained further voices on the board and Tiger Woods made obvious his sentiments on the matter.

This comes with some problems. First, let’s be very clear. There is no viable business case for the current deals being signed for players. Yes: Jon Rahm is a very, very good golfer. But, he is simply not worth $US500m for a deal rumoured to be for 3-5 years. To put the number in perspective, the PGA Tour generates about 10% of the revenue of the NBA. Rahm’s deal alone is worth about a third of all revenue generated by golf in a year from all sources. It is roughly double the highest paid NBA player.

Unlike PIF, other entities expect and need a return on their investment. The Saudi PIF have already demonstrated they don’t necessarily care about a direct financial return from buying professional golf. More, they may benefit indirectly through sports washing and non-linear business deals made adjacent to LIV tournaments.

Therefore, it’s a reasonable assumption any money invested by Fenway will not be to the exorbitant extents PIF are offering. It could provide a temporary solution. But it is unlikely sustainable for more than a few years to compete with LIV. Whether LIV agree to allow SSG a seat at the table in a triangular agreement remains to be seen.

Scenario 3: LIV PGA Tour talks dissolve

This possibility likely sends a shiver down the spines of golf fans. The status quo would be a huge blow to golf fans. Perhaps we were blissfully naive as fans to be able to watch all the best players regularly compete against one another. But there is a real chance we don’t see those times again for the foreseeable future.

Further, the move of Jon Rahm is likely to see others follow. It provides real legitimacy to the LIV Tour; a feather in their cap that we can expect them to roll-out frequently. It could result in a further fracturing of the best players in the game. For a somewhat niche sport that lacks global appeal, it means spreading to little butter over too much bread. The resulting reduction in viewership and subsequently revenue would be devastating to the game as we know it.

It is already the case that many arm-chair golf fans tune in only for the majors and that’s about it. The continued fractured tours would only amplify that phenomenon.

The death of the journeyman golfer

Irrespective of what deal (or lack thereof) is struck, one thing does seem certain. The concentration of funding is all pointing towards the elite of the game. That is unsustainable for the sport, resulting in less funding for those who have previously made a comfortable living from golf without setting the world alight. If you are ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the life as a professional golfer will inevitably look quite different.

In many ways, that is a real shame. The beauty of golf is that any player can win on their day. The David and Goliath stories of Rocco Mediate going against the G.O.A.T. will be all that more infrequent. Fields of 140+ players and even having a cut could well be a thing of the past. For many players, making that cut can mean the difference between keeping their tour card or returning to the lower ranks for another attempt. All of that makes for compelling storylines; the types of tales that keep bringing us back to the sport.

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1 year ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports Sports Betting PGA

World Wide Technology Championship Betting Picks & Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 year ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

El Cardonal plays host to the World Wide Techonology Cahmpionship for the first time.

The PGA Tour returns this week with a revamped World Wide Technology Championship. Of course, this tournament was previously held at the iconic El Cameleon Mayakoba. LIV Golf halted the streak of tournaments hosted there. LIV secured exclusive use of the course for their schedule, whatever that may eventually end up being. I’ll miss El Cameleon not just for the aesthetics, but also it’s very predictable nature of that event given the strongly weighted statistical profile it always produced. Instead, El Cardonal at Diamante is our host for the first time. This provides a new course for us to dive into and additionally the first appearance of a Tiger Woods design course on the PGA Tour.

I always enjoy seeing where the industry lands once a new golf course is added to the schedule. But it does appear, to my eye, that El Cardonal is somewhat straightforward to read. And that includes taking all World Wide Technology Championship form you previously had, burn the book, and do the complete opposite.

Qatar Masters Recap

A second week in a row where we had multiple selections in contention only for them to fade on the final day. Our two favourite selections, who were also members of our DFS core, Thorbjorn Olesen and Ewen Ferguson finished 9th and 16th respectively. It is always frustrating to have players in contention not finish the job, but the more often you end up having multiple players in position on Sunday is what eventually leads to the great results we have enjoyed this year. Olesen missed a full place payout by one shot and Ferguson by three.

It was somewhat pleasing to see Sami Valimaki secure the victory via playoff over Jorge Campillo, given Campillo featured prominently in our shortlist until his odds were released a tad too short to represent a genuine profitable play. A substantial weather edge did develop which we got spot on. This proved particularly advantageuous for our DFS players who were able to weather stack according to our advice.

Wil Besseling was our only triple figure for the week, put up at a massive 175/1. He did well in finishing 21st. Again, just one shot short of cashing a juicy Top 20 ticket but good enough to lock in a Top 40 payout on him. Here is hoping those we get in contention at this week’s World Wide Technology Championship get the job done on Sunday.

El Cardonal Course Analysis

Firstly, what jumps out from the greenskeeper notes is the average fairway width of 60 yards and greens averaging 8,400 sq feet. Both of those numbers are absurd and represent some of the highest you will see on tour all season. Tiger basically insinuated the course is essentially a resort course for weekend hacks. Eamon Lynch stated the course is “generous”. Basically, this course was never built with a PGA Tour professional in mind. It will be intriguing to see what the subsequent result is.

The course is coastal and, therefore, will play every inch of the some 7,452 yard par 72 shown on the scorecard being at sea level. The entire course is paspalum grass. This sturdy grass is rarely found on tour. Essentially, paspalum is used in hot and humid tropical conditions where the ocean is nearby. The thicker nature and higher salt tolerance make it a must in such conditions. That always has me licking my lips, as we have seen some real paspalum specialists pop up over the years.

In short, I expect a birdie fest this week. The only defense looks to be wind, and the weather forecast is so benign I’m not even providing a paragraph for it this week. You will need to go low and do so often to contend, with my suspicion being you will see a winning score close to -30 than -20. Driving distance should be particularly advantageous, but particularly performance on paspalum is weighted highly for me this week.

World Wide Technology Championship Course Comps

As mentioned, throw Mayakoba out the window. Where that test is narrow and testing, this is likely to be anything but.

My favourite course comps this week are paspalum courses where driving distance and putting have proven to be good predictive factors to success. Included in that list are Grand Reserve GC (Puerto Rico Open), Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Puntaca Championship), and Vidanata Vallarta (Mexico Open). We have seen time and again how these tropical courses throw out the same players regardless of form, and should be a good guide this week.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry Tournament of Champions) should also be a good guide for you this week. Along with being a coastal and tropical track, it features fairways and greens complexes as large as we see here. Additionally, El Cardonal does feature some significant elevation changes and undulations. However, do be cautious when reading form at Plantation. Given the field typically only features 30 or so golfers, a finish of 21st is likely nothing to write home about.

World Wide Technology Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Emiliano Grillo
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Akshay Bhatia
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cameron Champ – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Favourite
2.5pt E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Do check your odds on Champ, as he opened at 80/1 in places.

Vince Whaley
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Erik Van Rooyen
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +300 (Bet365)

Brandon Wu
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Nate Lashley
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Kelly Kraft – Your World Wide Techonology Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 40 +190 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our World Wide Technology Championship preview article. You can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Link your premium channel and Discord on the website, as we often have exclusive betting plays within our Discord channels.

1 year ago 0 comments

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Qatar Masters Picks & Advice: Everything You Need to Know About Doha Golf Club

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Doha Golf Club again plays host to our Qatar Masters picks

With just the one tournament this week, the eyes of the golfing world turn to the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour. We have had an excellent record in national opens this season. We have correctly included the winner in our selections for the Canadian Open (Taylor 66/1), US Open (Clark 80/1), British Masters (Hillier 80/1), Irish Open (Norrman 45/1), and the Open de Espana (Pavon 80/1). An excellent omen for our Qatar Masters picks!

This tournament has shifted about a bit over the past few years. Originally held as part of the “Desert Swing” in January, it shifted to March, yet now pops up on the calendar at the end of October. It should not make too much difference to the golfer profile we search for this week, but more on this in our weather analysis. It does, however, mean that the tournament takes on added significance as the final event of the regular schedule. This is the last chance for many players to secure their DP World Tour playing rights for 2024. It is also a final opportunity to qualify for the Nedbank Challenge and DP World Tour Championship in the coming month. I’m looking forward to attending the latter in Dubai, so I will make sure to post some pictures in the Win Daily Discord for all our premium members.

ZOZO Championship Recap

We had the 36 hole leader on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour for another week with multiple options in contention. At the ZOZO Championship, Beau Hossler once again put himself in prime position. Our Premium members will know we have been on Hossler for the past three weeks. Notably, his approach play is showing some great improvement. Typically a long driver of the golf ball with excellent putting, addressing the weakest part of his game will see him win on the PGA Tour in the near future. He eventually finished 2nd for a full place payout at equivalent odds of +600.

That was behind an impressive Morikawa, who ended his dry spell in emphatic fashion. I’ll admit I did hold concerns for Morikawa in the high winds forecast in rounds 1 and 2. To some extent, that did come to fruition. Morikawa was back at even par four holes into his 3rd round. He then miraculously played his final 32 holes at 14 under to win by some margin. We also had Cam Davis, who was 8th at the 36 hole mark and eventually just missed out on place money in 12th. Xander was 4th at halfway, but a dreadful weekend saw him tumble well out of contention.

Andalucia Masters Recap

The DP World Tour remained in Spain for the Andalucia Masters. With a new course, some guess work was required. We got it spot on for the weather draw, with a decent weather edge for those avoiding the highest winds. Our key course comp of Al Hamra also proved true, with winner Adrian Meronk having finished 4th and 6th in his two appearances at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Despite the course favouring longer hitters, it was the accurate Spaniard Adrian Otaegui who held the 36 hole lead for us. He was well in contention entering Sunday, including playing his first 48 holes bogey free despite high winds. To his credit, he pushed hard for victory firing at every pin. That is all you can really ask for a golfer in such position, although it did eventually cost us another full place payout finishing 9th.

Our 140/1 selection Adri Arnaus also came out firing in the 3rd round, shooting up the leaderboard to join Otaegui in the lead on Saturday. He faded slightly in the final round, but a 19th place finish was good enough for a partial Top 20 payout and a Top 40 hit. We also cashed a Top 20 bet on Sebastian Soderberg in 19th, again reduced due to dead-heat rules.

Doha Golf Club Course Analysis

Heading into our Qatar Masters picks, Doha Golf Club plays host once again. This course has played host to this tournament since 1998, except in 2020 and 2021 when the event was held at neighbouring Education City Golf Club. Therefore, it is important to ensure you read course history rather than tournament history when analyzing your data.

Course form also proves to be more “sticky” here than other venues. You should give more weighting to prior performance here than on other courses. Basically, if golfers have played well here before they are statistically more likely to do so again. Conversely, do not be surprised if players in form don’t carry that with them to Doha have they struggled here previously.

I’ve previously referred to this course as one of the “faux links” we see on the DP World Tour. The course is designed by Peter Harradine, but it is the work of Kyle Phillips that provides the most guidance. Phillips designed Kingsbarns, one of the regular courses from the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation. He also created other faux links courses Yas Links, in Abu Dhabi, and Bernardus, an inland but exposed links course hosting the KLM Open. The former also has paspalum grass. Paspalum is often found in ocean side and tropical courses, due to it’s sturdy nature and higher salt tolerance.

The key reason for all this is wind. The course is very exposed, with virtually no protection from the winds. Fairways and greens are undulating and well bunkered. Certainly, the course demands a specific skillset you don’t often see for the majority of the season.

Course Comps for our Qatar Masters Picks

For all the aforementioned reasons, our course comps are dominated by links form. The Alfred Dunhill Links and, to some extent, The Open Championship have been good guides here. Likewise, the Kyle Phillips designed Yas Links and Bernardus provide good correlations to Doha Golf Club.

Yet it is another Phillips design which is perhaps the best course comp to guide your Qatar Masters picks. Verdura Golf Club hosted the Sicilian Open on four occasions. However, the correlation is significant.

Alvaro Quiros has won at both courses. Michael Lorenzo-Vera finished 2nd there in his one appearance and has a record in Doha of 30-59-4-10-2. Thorbjorn Olesen won at Verdura (having also won and finished runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship). He has a 2nd and 3rd at Doha GC. Chris Wood, who was 5th as an amateur at The Open then 3rd the next year, finished runner-up to Olesen at Verdura and then won in Doha the next year. Joakim Lagergren went the other way. He finished runner-up at the Qatar Masters and then won at Verdura the following here.

Education City form shouldn’t be completely thrown away, Campillo having won on that course and holding a good record on this track. Likewise, general form in the Middle East is seen as a positive for our Qatar Masters Picks.

Weather for our Qatar Masters Picks

As mentioned, the tournament has shifted from March to October this year. Conditions should present quite similar. Both March and October are in the shoulder season, with temperatures consistently in the range of 30-35C (high 80s-low 90s for those metrically opposed).

What is also consistent is the wind. All coastal Middle East golf courses experience a sea breeze from early afternoon. As the land heats up, air rises and creates a lower pressure area. This causes the air above the ocean to move onshore. When I was learning to play golf in Dubai, you could almost predict when these winds would hit to the minute. The impact was also severe, and playing longer holes into the high winds became very difficult.

This week, Thursday morning provides for the lowest winds of the two rounds prior to the cut. Friday morning will also present better conditions than the afternoon. However, some moderate winds will start building a couple of hours earlier than Thursday. Although no significant weather edge exists for our Qatar Masters picks, general ability to play in the wind is essential to success here.

Qatar Masters Picks

Suggested Staking

Thorbjorn Olesen
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ewen Ferguson – Your Qatar Masters Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2.5pt E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Sebastian Soderberg
2pt E/W +6000 (William Hill with 8 palces 1/5 odds)

Jeff Winther
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (TAB)

Michael Lorenzo-Vera
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (TAB)

Matthew Jordan – Your Qatar Masters Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

Will Besseling
0.5pt E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 palces 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (TAB)
And
2pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Summary

Thank you reading our Qatar Masters picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching. Make sure you are linked in to your premium channel, as we often have exclusive betting plays within the Discord channels.

2 years ago 0 comments

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ZOZO Championship Picks: Everything You Need To Know About Narashino CC

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Narashino Country Club plays host to our ZOZO Championship Picks

ANOTHER ONE. Another week and yet another winner from the pages of DeepDiveGolf! Mathieu Pavon completed a relatively stress free wire-to-wire victory paying a juicy 80/1. In a quirky stat, we’ve had a ridiculous run of winners at national opens. We’ve successfully picked the winner at the Canadian Open (Nick Taylor 66/1), US Open (Wyndham Clark 80/1), Irish Open (Vincent Norrman 45/1), and now Mathieu Pavon at 80/1 for the Open de Espana. You could convince me to add Daniel Hillier winning the British Masters at 80/1 to the list. And, although this is not a national open (the Japan Open Golf Championship was actually last week), we are in fine form for our ZOZO Championship picks.

I feel even more aggrieved now that we tipped Ryo Hisatsune in 3 out of the 4 tournaments before he won the Open de France at 100/1. If you’ve followed our suggested staking in 2023 using $10 per unit, then you are over $9,000 in profit.

The first many will notice about Narashino Country Club is that there are two greens on every hole. This is common in Japan and comes with many benefits. Firstly, having two greens allows one to be restored or undergo aeration whilst the other is played. Secondly, it allows variety for course members and regulars. Finally, in a country like Japan which has extremely hot and humid summers then snow in winter, it would be used by having different grass types on each green for the seasons.

https://x.com/PGATOUR/status/1187072948152061952?s=20

Narashino Country Club Course Analysis

Fortunately for analysis this week, the course will mostly use just one of the greens. Any shots that end on the other green will be eligible for free relief. However, do note we have seen them previously alternate between the greens on a few select holes.

The ZOZO Championship and Narashino CC makes for a tricky format and course to handicap. The usual strokes gained data are not recorded without trackman travelling to Japan. A reduced field and no cut also adds a wrinkle to the format for our ZOZO Championship picks. Basically, with all golfers playing 4 rounds the cream tends to eventually rise to the top. Analysis of previous leaderboards here and from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, good drive percentage should be a useful stat this week. It doesn’t necessarily matter if you are long off the tee or straight, just that you do one. If you can have both, that is certainly a bonus but reduces the pool largely to the elite.

Another key to our guidance this week is approach from 150-200 yards. Golfers will see 1.5-2 strokes more within this bracket each round, depending on driving distance. This means roughly 60% of approach will fall within this yardage. Looking through prior leaderboards, players who have played well here are also high in the rankings within this yardage.

Tree-lined fairways are carpeted with zoysiagrass. This unique grass is polarizing and seen rarely on the PGA Tour. Some golfers have remarked they like that this sturdy grass acts like your balls is teed up. Others golfers have lamented that the grass can produce flyers.

Finally, a solid short game is imperative. With a winning score likely to end in the -15 to -18 range again, key up and downs are key to maintaining momentum to compile a score.

Course Comps for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Last year’s winner, Keegan Bradley, provides a guide to course comps for our ZOZO Championship picks. Prior to his victory, he had also recorded a 7th and 13th in his three starts. TPC River Highlands, where he also won the Travelers Championship, has formlines as well as using similar bentgrass greens. Brendan Steele was runner up here on his first look and has 9 Top 25s at TPC River Highlands from 12 starts.

Bradley is also a winner at Firestone Country Club (former host of the Bridgestone Invitiational). Tiger Woods holds a ridiculous record there, and won on his sole start here in 2019 for perhaps his last PGA Tour victory. I dislike using Tiger as a guide, as he simply won almost everywhere he played. But 2019 Tiger was quite a different proposition, so it does seem relevant he won on first look here.

I also generally dislike using Augusta as a comp, as it obviously attracts the best field in golf. However, treelined fairways and undulations visually provide a comparison. Xander Schauffele won the Olympics gold medal in Tokyo 2020 and has finished in the top 10 at The Masters in 50% of his starts.

Xander is also a winner at The Old White TPC (former host of the Greenbrier Classic). Sebastian Munoz provides further links, finishing 4th at Narashino Country Club and a record of 3rd and 7th at The Old White TPC.

Finally, other zoysia fairway courses of TPC Southwind and TPC Craig Ranch can be used for approach play on this unique grass type.

Weather Forecast for our ZOZO Championship Picks

Weather could well be a factor across the first two days for our ZOZO Championship picks. Thursday morning has a small chance of fog delays and will be cold. Winds will pick up throughout the day, with gusts around 20mph from early afternoon. However, prevailing winds will remain relatively moderate.

Friday morning will again experience lower winds, before building substantially later in the afternoon. Winds could reach as high as 25mph prevailing with gusts above 40mph.

Although there are condensed tee times with the reduced field, there remains potential for a weather edge there. Those going off earliest on Friday morning should experience an advantage for at least 9 holes. If any fog delays do occur or there is a substantial temperature difference on Thursday, we could potentially see the edge move across both the first two rounds. I certainly don’t see the edge being sufficient to completely rule out a player from your player pool. However, it should play a factor in your decisions this week. Especially, in situations when deciding between two similar players for DFS purposes.

ZOZO Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Favourite
5pt E/W +800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Cam Davis
4pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Beau Hossler
2pt E/W +4000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge – Your ZOZO Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 (Unibet)

Michael Kim
0.5pt E/W +10000 (William Hill with 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +240 (William Hill)

Summary

Thank you reading our ZOZO Championship picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Open de France Picks: Everything You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The spectacular Le Golf National plays host to our Open de France picks

Having selected winner Vincent Norrman at 45/1 and Ryan Fox in 3rd at 40/1 at the Irish Open, it was a week of what could have been at the BMW PGA Championship. Undoubtedly, my fellow countryman Ryan Fox was a deserving winner. The composure he displayed down the final stretch was incredibly compelling. Despite the huge number of arguably bigger names breathing down his neck, Fox recovered from a triple bogey on the 3rd hole to play the final 15 at 8-under. He continues to impress in the big moments and an even bigger 2024 could well be imminent. Could he upset our Open de France picks?

A couple of those bigger names were our headline selections, with Tommy Fleetwood 14/1 and Tom Kim 25/1 sitting just one and two shots back respectively. They both managed to capitulate over the course of the final round, but it was pleasing as always to have live chances well in contention. We also cashed Top 40 bets on Shubhankar Sharma (150/1) and Julien Brun (180/1). It has also been a great year for us at the national opens, having tipped the winner at the US Open, Canadian Open, Irish Open, and British Masters. Can we follow up with a winner at the golf French Open? What a fantastic back-drop to set the scene for our Cazoo Open de France picks!

Course Analysis of the Albatros Course at Le Golf National

With another Ryder Cup just a week away, the DP World Tour returns to a former Ryder Cup venue for our Open de France picks. Le Golf National hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Team Europe handed Team USA a thumping 17.5-10.5. Part of the reason can be found in the course on display this week.

This quirky course has historically provided a stern test. The event moved to October, which hosted the last two renditions in 2019 and 2022 (2020 and 2021 cancelled due to COVID-19). In those events, longer drivers had done well without excluding those lacking distance off the tee. My suspicion is that this tournament will play more as it used to, with a well documented heat wave across Europe providing the firmer conditions previously seen when this was played in summer.

Meanwhile, back to that 2018 Ryder Cup walloping, the Europe victory came down to the fact this is a tricky and positional course which nullifies driving ability. That was frustrating for the Americans, who typical strength of longer driving distance was mitigated by the elements they faced. And with a fast course presented this week, I suspect we face more of the same here for our Open de France picks.

As the multitude of water hazards and unique mounds narrowing the fairways, you’ll see players reaching for a lofted wood or iron off the tee here more often. The key then lies in driving accuracy and precise iron play. Despite the slight reversion towards driving distance the last two years, it is hard to deny Migliozzi, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Colsaerts can absolute flush their irons on their day.

Other than that, avoiding the big mistakes and plotting your way around the course is key with a winning score of -12 to -16 likely.

Comp Courses for our Open de France Picks

Firstly, I’ll note that course history is stickier here than most. Play well here, you have a significantly better chance of doing so again. If you’ve hated the course, you could be in for a tough week. Much of this comes down to the unique nature of this course, which seems rather polarizing for many players.

Celtic Manor provides extremely strong form lines and it is easy to see why. Another Ryder Cup stadium course hosting in 2010, the course features numerous water hazards and narrowing fairways. And, although Celtic Manor admittedly plays longer, that recipe is what our Open de France picks will face this week. Even visually the courses look relatively similar.

Form lines can be found through Graeme McDowall, Alex Noren, and Thongchai Jaidee have won at both golf courses. Thomas Pieters holds a 3rd at both. Jamie Donaldson a 6th and 4th. Uihlein and Sterne have a runner up at both courses. Luiten has won at Celtic Manor and finished 9th and 11th here. Colsaerts had a 4th and 18th at Celtic Manor and won at Le Golf National in 2019. Certainly, it is one of the strongest form links you will find all season.

Other notable courses include Valderrama, whose narrow tree lined fairways and quirky test holds similarities as do leaderboards. Additionally, Valderrama tests the nerve of a golfer with bogeys inevitable and similar winning scores. Your ability to maintain composure can be as important as scoring here. Other similar course guides can be found at Diamond, Eichenreid, and a Challenge Tour event in France the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge.

Weather

Certainly, the weather looks tumultuous to say the least over the first two days. The course should receive some very welcome rain for the region on Thursday. The majority of this should occur in the morning. Notably though, this is forecast to be joined by high winds. Gusts in the morning look set to reach above 30mph consistently with prevailing winds in the mid-teens.

Conversely, Friday looks another windy day but with the best conditions in the morning. There is also no rain on the radar. I imagine we see those in the morning benefit from the moisture left in the ground. I don’t suspect this softening in the ground to last long. With high winds and sun in the afternoon, combined with a very hot and dry summer, should see the moisture burn off swiftly.

All of this leads to a firm weather edge to those going off Thursday afternoon and Friday morning over their first two rounds. The majority of our Cazoo Open de France picks come from that weather wave. Therefore, I would be giving a firm weighting of 40% of my DFS lineups favouring that side of the draw. Obviously, the weather can flip at any time and you should be monitoring this for your Open de France picks right up to lock. However, this forecast has remained consistent all week. Back it with confidence and keep your fingers crossed.

Open de France Picks

Suggested Staking

Alexander Bjork
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Adrian Otaegui
2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Connor Syme – Your Open de France Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Julien Brun
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +320 (Unibet)

Callum Shinkwin – Your Open de France Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +375 (Bet365)

James Morrison
1pt E/W +15000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
2pt Top 20 +550 (Unibet)

Soren Kjeldsen
0.5pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
and
1pt Top 20 +800 (Bet365)
and
2pt Top 40 +275 (Bet365)

Summary

Thank you reading our Open de France picks article. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA

The 151st Open Championship Picks

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Claret jug sits at Hoylake Royal Liverpool Golf Club, host for our 151st The Open Championship Picks

Golf snobs will be delighted for the return to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, colloquially known as Hoylake, for the 151st Open Championship. Although last week’s Genesis Scottish Open offers up similar-ish conditions, The Renaissance Club can really only be described at links golf lite. For many, performance on links track remains the true test of golf. It has perennially been an examination of all aspects of a golfers game. Further, one that has managed to largely avoid the increasing advantage of the long drivers that now dominate the leaderboards across the globe. This course is iconic and provides a rugged yet beautiful test for our Open Championship picks.

We were oh so close to yet another winner at the Scottish Open. Rory McIlroy won in near impossible circumstances and continues to impress, as he arrives at a course he won at in 2014. We had just two selections last week with a unit stake over 1. They were Scottie Scheffler, who finished 3rd in typical fashion, and Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton particularly had a 2 shot lead into the last 9 holes, before throwing that away over 6 holes to wind up 6th. That was also in rather typical fashion for what has been a frustrating year for the Brit. We also had young Scot Ewen Ferguson continuing to impress. He was put up at a massive 250/1 and finished up in 12th, just two shots outside the place money but sufficient to cash both Top 20 and Top 40 bets he had recommended.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club Hoylake – Course Analysis

Royal Liverpool Golf Club presents as a stern test for the Open picks. The first, and perhaps more notable feature, are the 6 internal out of bounds areas for the golfers to avoid. For the uninitiated, finding OB off the tee is not just a penalty shot but also loss of distance. It is one of the harshest penalties a golfer can face in regular circumstances. The scary thing with Hoylake is that these areas are often mere yards from the fairway. It does not take much here for things to go very, very wrong. Not something we want for our Open Championship picks!

Further adding to this are strategically placed fairway bunkers. Often occurring right in the key landing distances, these bunkers are deep with extreme faces. They should be viewed as you would a water hazard. The same bunkers are littered around the greens, with many areas shaved and slope to feed your golf ball right to the bottom of the pit.

And yet, we are not done with the hazards here. Thick gorse bushes are found around the course and, again, just mere yards off the relatively narrow fairways. Gorse presents extremely thick bushes with sturdy branches. If finding your ball in them is near impossible, hitting a shot from them certainly is.

Ideal Player Profile for The Open Championship picks

What this means is you can’t simply rip driver here whenever you like. You will need to be extremely strategic and display exquisite course management to be successful. If you can be both long and consistently straight off the tee, then that is obviously best. It is hard to see a winner outside the really great drivers of the golf ball.

Otherwise, driving accuracy would be the preference for our Open Championship picks. Preference is given to long drivers comfortable using iron off the tee when strategically appropriate. Many holes require the player to draw the golf ball so this should also be noted. As always, approach will be a factor. Lesser weighting is given to around the green and putting than those two factors.

Short game is obviously imperative in links golf, so these aren’t discounted entirely. This is given many around the green shots are subject to a little luck where the ball lands in the bunker, lessening some of the around the green skill. With putting, the slower than normal greens provide a moderately easier test.

Course Comps for Royal Liverpool

Hoylake provides a very different test off the tee than last year’s host at the Old Course at St Andrews. That course features huge 100 yard wide fairways and nothing to penal in terms of hazards when driving. A much better comparison can be found at the 2019 Open Championship host Portrush. Visually they are much a like, but they also both have a draw preference to their layout.

A somewhat obscure comparison can be made between the Qatar Masters host, Doha Golf Club. That tournament has thrown out a number of Open Championship winners or likely contenders. That includes Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, and Paul Lawrie. The course is a Kyle Phillips design, the same designer of Kingsbarns. That course features in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship rotation, another solid form guide to The Open Championship picks.

For the PGA Tour players, the difficulty comes that they really don’t have any links courses in the USA. Some parallels can be extracted through correlation. First, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National have provided similar names to the prior Open Championship leaderboards hosted here in 2006 and 2014. They ask similar questions in different ways. The Players requires driving accuracy off the tee with heavy penalty if too wayward. Augusta National requires a strong driver, with excellent approach and around the green play.

Finally, The Honda Classic host PGA National is a great look. Padraig Harrington is a two time champion both at The Open Championship and there. McIlroy, Els, Scott, and Rickie Fowler also dot both the leaderboards there and are either Open Championship winners or runner ups. Any PGA Tour players who have played somewhat well in Scottish Open is a nice bonus for The Open Championship picks.

Weather

Foremost when considering the weather, you should note the unique format at The Open Championship. It is tradition that all players start on the 1st tee. As such, tee times cover a huge range from the early first sunlight hours of 6:35am through to those finishing in twilight at 4:16pm.

This presents a unique question for weather. Typically, coastal areas experience increased wind levels from midday through to late afternoon. This though does tend to fade as it enters evening. The main cause for this is the colder air over the seas moves towards the warmer air over land as it heats up, rises, and creates a low pressure area for the winds to advance.

This rings true across both Thursday and Friday. Of the first two days, Friday looks to be the windier of the two. Rain also looks to be a factor and consistent across the tournament.

Preference is given to those with a very early tee time Friday, which should present the best conditions of that day. Simply though, the key is to not find a golfer stuck in the middle ground for our Open Championship picks. I want golfers who get to take advantage of at least one decent true morning start. Those very late in the day may experience a small benefit too. The risk is ending up stuck with a late morning tee time, when winds are already picking up, and then ending up in the afternoon the next day. This should be avoided wherever possible.

151st The Open Championship Picks

Headline Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds) with 25% Bet Boost

Shane Lowry
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Max Homa
2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Adam Scott
1pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 (Bet365)

Ryan Fox
1pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +335 (Unibet)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788095069-adc9-920?id=63fbd158-d2f7-427a-8852-862667446fda”]

Long-Shot Bombs

Note that, as per the Scottish Open, I like to include some long-shot bombs. This comes due to the potential volatility inherent in links golf, presenting opportunities further down the board at inflated prices. This is combined along with the specialist nature that players can develop specific to links courses. You’ll see that the win stake on these is heavily reduced, with the main focus on obtaining exposure in Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Matthew Jordan
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +175

Kurt Kitayama
0.25pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Alex Noren – Your 151st Open Championship Best Long-Shot Bomb
0.25pt E/W +25000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 (TAB)
And
3.5pt Top 40 +230 (TAB)

Ewen Ferguson
0.25pt E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (Bet365)

Victor Perez
0.25pt E/W +35000 (Unibet with 7 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +750 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +210 (TAB)

Matt Wallace
0.25pt E/W +40000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +900 (Unibet)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +320 (TAB)

Matthew Southgate
0.25pt E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places, 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (William Hill)
And
2.5pt Top 40 +300 (Bet365)

[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1689788884589-adc9-136?id=c7dca0c6-4471-4b0b-abe5-1615eb7f10a4″]

Player Profiles for The Open Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Favourite

Cases can be made for all of Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Cam Smith, and Koepka. The fact is that, if anything, they are likely priced very correctly in the market and often below fair odds. This is a volatile tournament and fading the favourites is something we almost just have to do. There is little in the way of value there.

Although somewhat disappointed to miss the opening 30/1 which we liked, I’m still happy to side with Cantlay at the top of the board. The 22/1 on offer can be inflated by 25% with Bet365, which I recommend doing if you have access to that bookmaker.

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Cantlay sucks in majors. I get it. The question comes, do we simply think Cantlay will never win a major? I’m not convinced that will be the case when his career is all said and done. What should also be noted is he is now on a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 14th or better in majors. A good start is imperative to his chances of success, something he can hopefully obtain with a morning tee time Thursday.

Cantlay is one of the strongest drivers in the game. Over the past 6 months, he is the 12th in this field for driving accuracy despite being long off the tee. That jumps to 7th if looking at the last 3 months. Further, he is leader for par 5 scoring on the PGA Tour, a stat he also led in 2022. He has already shown an aptitude for links golf with finishes of 8th and 12th in the Open previously. I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday. Here’s hoping he can then shut the door and silence the critics.

Shane Lowry

Lowry is once again quietly putting together an impressive season. He is one of a small smattering of golfers who have finished in the Top 20 in every major for 2023. That includes 16th and 3rd at The Masters, which should be somewhat correlated to here.

Beyond the obvious correlations from being The Open winner at Portrush, one of the better past courses for guidance here, he has a great record at other comp courses. This includes finishes of 2nd and 5th at the Honda Classic for the past two years and 3 finishes of 16th or better at The Players.

Last week’s Scottish Open was eye catching given a large spike in his short game performance. Typically the weakest element of his game, he wound up 12th despite not possessing his best approach week. A return to normality with his ball striking numbers will see him go close here if he putts even half as well as he did in Scotland.

Max Homa

Look, I know what you’re thinking. Homa sucks in majors. I get it. Much like Cantlay though, I suspect we will see Homa as a major champion at some point in his career and The Open Championship seems to fit well.

Homa has impressed recently at The Players, with finishes of 6th an 13th at his last two appearances. That course rewards both long and straight drivers of the ball, which Homa possesses in spades. Homa’s victories have often come in tough conditions, particularly when it is raining. His wins at the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship come to mind. Both were wet tournaments, but also on courses favouring accuracy off the tee. All of his 8 victories bar one have come at scores from -8 to -16. With likely winning score here likely to be in the -12 to -15 range, that fits right in his pocket.

As the 8th best golfer in the world, we are getting an inflated price at 50/1 here. An avid fan of golf history, he is well aware of the special place The Open holds in the world of golf. He would make for a worthy champion.

Adam Scott

We were on Adam Scott last week, who missed the cut right on the number. That may not end up a bad thing, given the volatile winds over the weekend and very early starts that ensued. If not in contention, he was likely best to pack up and head down to Hoylake a little in advance.

He arrives at a course where he finished 8th and 5th in the prior to renditions hosted at Royal Liverpool. Further building to his links (pun unintended) are his two wins at the Qatar Masters and a win at the Honda Classic. Alongside those impeccable credentials are a multitude of top 20s at The Players and a green jacket. Scott could well be the veteran who pops up here for a major win towards the end of a stellar career.

Corey Conners – Your 151st Open Championship Picks Best Value

Conners quietly went about building a decent links warm-up last week with a 19th placed finished at the Scottish Open. We also saw a large increase in driving accuracy but, most notably for Conners, a good week putting.

Conners is long and straight off the tee, rankings 11th in SG:OTT over the last 3, 6, and 12 months and 8th if looking over 2 years. 15th and 28th at the past two Opens suggest he isn’t completely foreign to links golf. He also boasts a great record at Augusta National with a run of 6th, 8th, and 10th at The Masters between 2020-2022. 12th at the PGA Championship is also not the worst guide, with a course that played very well but featured incredibly penal rough if straying a couple yards off the fairway. Should he find a half decent putter, he is a shout to surprise a few here.

Ryan Fox

Patriotism aside, Ryan Fox could well be a sneaky look to sneak another claret jug for New Zealand here. Fox has had a sterling few years as his game continues to grow. He continued that with a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open, where he has a previous 4th in 2017.

Not adverse to windy conditions, Foxy has already displayed some of his best on links courses. We saw that in his most notable victory, winning the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links in sometimes torrid conditions. He also surprised for a 16th at the 2019 Open at Portrush. That came well before the levels we see him playing at now and broke a run of 7 consecutive missed cuts. He also follows those performances at other courses where he is equally happy using a 2 iron off the tree. The Soudal Open comes to mind, where he finished 2nd on a very narrow test hindered when his 2 iron shaft actually cracked on the final day.

He also owns the course record at his home course, Te Arai Links, which he broke in February this year. He shot a 60 there: https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ryan-fox-breaks-course-record-at-te-arai-links-on-trip-back-home/

If you want to look at similarities, simply go and look at some of the photos of that beautiful piece of land.

I asked in my recent interview with Ryan Fox about what it is about links golf suits his game so well. He pointed to the fact he prefers tests where he feels he doesn’t have to make birdie every hole. That more strategic, methodical approach gives me faith he will put the driver away when needed. When he gets to the par 5s and par 4s, he can let the big dog eat and attack some of those longer holes. Go well Foxy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzUk1Qjj6so&t=339s

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 151st The Open Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask myself and other experts direct questions for your DFS lineups and betting queries, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

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2 years ago 0 comments

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John Deere Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

TPC Deere Run hosts our John Deere Classic picks

What a year we are having! Daniel Hillier secured yet another victory from our selections over on the DP World Tour. The 80/1 long-shot secured the British Masters with a stunning final 9 holes, including going eagle-birdie-eagle before a clutch par putt on the 18th. Let’s look for another winner with our John Deere Classic picks.

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1675531476836974597?s=20

Hillier made an obvious selection. He had finished 3rd and 5th in two of his three most recent appearances. Realistically, he was in a position to win one if not both of those tournaments. But, the secret sauce actually came from a 2021 Challenge Tour event. The 2021 British Challenge was hosted on the same course at The Belfry. Obviously, it was an easier setup than the DP World Tour tournaments played at the same venue. Hillier finished 14th that week. However, Hillier was the best player in the field over the last three rounds. Likely this was missed by many, but not when we are @DeepDiveGolf!

Course Analysis for our John Deere Classic Picks

TPC Deere Run plays host to this event, as it has since 2000. This short 7,289 yard par-71 completes what should really be coined the wedge, putting contest, birdie-fest swing. A low winning score of between -20 to -25 is likely this week.

The course offers up very little defense. A quick peruse through past leaderboards makes clear driving accuracy is at a premium here for our John Deere Classic picks. The 2017 edition, battled between DeChambeau and Rodgers, provides the sole exception. Rough is reasonably thick at 4 inches, although fairways are not that narrow. Players simply need to be providing themselves a multitude of birdie looks here from within 15 feet. That is best achieved through finding the short grass off the tee. It is an essential element to your John Deere Classic picks.

There will be a disproportionate number of shots between 50-100 yards and, particularly, 100-150 yards. This been the same recipe as seen recently at the RBC Canadian Open, Travelers Championship, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over 60% of shots are from 100-200 yards. This is further emphasized given the majority of approach shots over 200 yards will occur on the par 5s and two of the par 3s being over 200 yards.

I will be putting less weighting on putting here than other models. The greens are relatively simple and true, being bentgrass. There is little in the way of undulations or complicated reading here. I’d much rather narrow the focus on fairway finders who will be giving themselves plenty of birdie looks due to elite wedge play.

Key metrics: Driving accuracy, Approach 100-150 yards, Approach 50-100 yards.

Course Comps for TPC Deere Run

Chiefly, a number of recent courses are used as guidance for your John Deere Classic picks. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club all emphasize accuracy and a disproportionate number of wedge shots. They also provide bentgrass within their green complexes. These courses balance a nice combination of recent form as well as being correlated to what we expect this week.

Other correlations for John Deere Classic picks are at Waialae Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and the American Express tournament. All emphasize driving accuracy and a high number of wedge shots. Therefore, as Jon Rahm infamously described one of the aforementioned, they become a bit of a putting contest.

Weather

There appear to be few pitfalls in the weather this week. Winds look relatively consistent across both Thursday and Friday and any potential weather edge does appear minimal.

There is a small chance of some raining on Wednesday evening. Certainly, this may lead to a softening of conditions for those out Thursday morning. However, the advantage should be minimal. Therefore, this does not factor into our John Deere Classic picks. However, I would provide a small uptick for any lower priced options you are considering in DFS who are going out early in round 1.

John Deere Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley – Your John Deere Classic Picks favourite
3pts E/W +1600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Alex Smalley
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (TAB)

David Lipsky
1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And 2pts
Top 20 +450 (Bet365)

Zac Blair
0.5pts +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pts Top 40 +240 (TAB)

Satoshi Kodaira – Your John Deere Classic Picks best value
0.5pts +35000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1200 (Unibet)
And
2pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 John Deere Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

2 years ago 0 comments

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Detroit Golf Club hosts our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

It looked for the first two days of The Travelers Championship as we were well on track for the three-peat. Following winners of Nick Taylor 66/1 and Wyndham Clark 80/1, Denny McCarthy led across the first two rounds. Unfortunately, a rare cold putter in the 3rd round saw him fall out of contention. He still collected a full place payout for us along with the Top 20 money to keep the ball rolling. It looks like another birdie fest is instore for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Course Analysis

Nestled in the heart of Detroit lies the magnificent Detroit Golf Club, a captivating haven for golfers seeking a true test of their skills. With its meticulously manicured fairways, undulating greens, and strategic bunkering, this Donald Ross masterpiece offers an ideal setting for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Many people will simply look at the list of winners and believe this is a bombers paradise. Seeing names such as Tony Finau, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau battling Matthew Wolff could lead some to believe driving distance is essential here. That can be a fallacy many fall into. I prefer taking a much more nuanced approach.

We have also seen many shorter but accurate hitters also find success here. Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, and J.J. Spaun top the list of the best course history here for those with more than 12 rounds played despite being shorter hitters.

What these players do share in common is they are consistently gaining strokes on approach from 50-150 yards. More than 50% of shots will occur from this range. This is significant, especially when you account for Par 3s and Par 5s that are always naturally going to demand longer irons no matter which course you play.

Comp Courses

Sedgefield Country Club is another Donald Ross design featuring tree lined fairways and a reputation as a birdie fest. There are correlating links between the The American Express, not just through Rahm’s infamous putting contest remark but the disproportionate number of wedge shots required there.

Recent results at The Travelers Championship and this year’s Canadian Open host Oakdale Golf and Country Club are noted. These tournaments both feature a large number of wedge shots, tree lined fairways, and greens featuring a bentgrass/poa annua mix. They provide a nice balance between correlated metrics and recent form arriving here for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks.

Weather for our Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

There does appear to be a minor weather edge developing for our Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Golfers fortunate enough to tee off on Thursday morning and continue their second round on Friday afternoon might benefit from calmer conditions, as the forecast suggests a light breeze and moderate temperatures during these periods. Potential thunderstorms Friday afternoon could delay play. Therefore, this would see those golfers get to finish their rounds under calm conditions Saturday morning. This favorable weather window could potentially yield lower scores and provide an advantage for those players.

In contrast, competitors teeing off on Thursday afternoon and continuing their second round on Friday morning might encounter slightly more challenging conditions. The forecast indicates an increase in wind speeds and possible showers during these timeframes.

We predict the scoring advantage to fall in the range of 0.50-0.75 strokes on average. This is likely insufficient to take me off premium players like Hideki Matsuyama. However, it is worthy on noting for lower tier options that the preference should be for them to come from the perceived better weather draw.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Suggested Staking

Hideki Matsuyama – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Favourite
2.5pt E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk
2pt E/W +5000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Stephan Jaeger
2pt E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Nicolai Hojgaard
1pt E/W +8000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +333 (William Hill/TAB)

Mark Hubbard
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +350 (William Hill/TAB)

Joseph Bramlett – Your Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Best Value
1.5pt E/W +9000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +400 (Bet365)

David Lipsky
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2pt Top 40 +230 (Bet365)

Summary

Finally, thank you reading our 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!

Link into the WinDaily Discord channel here. You can ask direct questions for your DFS lineups with all of our experts, as well as one-on-one coaching!

PROMO: Use code “GREEN” or “WINBIG” when signing up to receive a one week no obligation free trial.

Obviously this includes all our premium content, personalized advice, Discord premium chat, and future articles. Make sure you are signed up to WinDaily Gold!

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