We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week three and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. I had to push back release of this article but for good reason. Last night NFL Game Pass, after months of missed deadlines, finally released coaches film. For those who are new this year I am a huge proponent of using the coaches film to spot situational advantages based on formations and the normal game replays do not show the full field of view. So in addition to the bigger named guys I will now have a complete dart throw on two that I will add for you folks who still play in 150 entry contests. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26.
QB: Spread out (no QB over 9%)
RB: Dalvin Cook 17%, Saquon Barkley 14%, Joe Mixon 14%, Derrick Henry 13%, D’Andre Swift 13%
WR: Cooper Kupp 22%, Chris Godwin 17%, KJ Osborn 14%, Robert Woods 13%, Tyler Boyd 12%
***Late Addition: Nick Chubb is under 5% projected ownership on DraftKings with no Landry and Beckham in his first game back. He has only been getting around a dozen carries a week thus far, but this week I think the Browns will need to lean on him and use Hunt split out as a receiver. If he gets 20 carries at any point in the early season, this is it.***
For some reason, folks are forgetting about Jonathan Taylor Sunday and we are all over it at Win Daily. The Titans managed to hold Chris Carson to just 2.4 yards per carry but they gave up 2 touchdowns to him and at closer inspection that low YPC was more of a function of bad run blocking on Seattle’s part and less about the Titans front. The Colts line, while a little nicked up, is miles better than anything Seattle put on the field last week. With Wentz playing on two bad ankles he is going to need to lean on Taylor to bail him out with the short passing game instead of scrambling himself and he is good for a minimum of 15 carries every week. Taylor has slate-breaking upside in a plus matchup and he is coming in at a silly sub 5% number as everyone is jumping on Henry and Saquon this week.
See my running back article as I touched on Javonte in depth there. The rookie is supremely talented and he has been getting the bulk of his work after taking the lead which the Broncos are expected to have pretty early on as a 10.5 point favorite.
I love how people are still not believing that the Gronk resurgence is real. It is real ladies and gentlemen. Rob took a year off, got his body healthy, and is living the good life in Florida with his best buddy catching touchdowns. Last year he led the team with Mike Evans with 21 red-zone targets. This year he leads the team through two weeks with 4 red-zone targets and has seen over 80% snap share in each game compared to the 70% range in most of the last season. The only thing that makes any sense to me is that either people are scared of going with two tight ends in their DFS lineups or they are going with guys like Kelce, Hockenson, and Waller who are all expected to have big days. With no Antonio Brown this week and Jalen Ramsey covering Mike Evans, Gronk should smash and don’t tell Bruce Arians, but he doesn’t need to study the playbook to do it.
What if I told you that that you could find a receiver who is in the highest total game of the day, who is his teams leading fantasy producer, who is playing against a bad and banged up secondary, who also happens to have a questionable workhorse running back? Then what would you say if I told you that you could get him at sub 6% ownership? Allow me to reintroduce you to Adam Thielen. We were ready to write Adam off before the season, but the Irv Smith Injury caused a big void in that offense. While everyone is going towards KJ Osborn at only 3.5K on DraftKings, Thielen leads the team in targets and touchdowns and is still a very reasonable 6.7k. If the name was Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, or Cooper Kupp and we were looking at the same scenario we would be looking at triple the ownership and we would be happy to do it. Be sure to put him in a lineup or two because if he sees another 8+ targets against the Seahawks we are looking at a big day for Adam.
Do not overuse this play as it has some huge bust potential but based on some film study and projections this is a play that I see coming in at next to nothing in terms of ownership and has the opportunity the have a strong outing. This week we get a cheap one that will will not kill you and afford you a chance to pay up elsewhere.
My final low owned week 3 DFS play is a gross one. Let me be clear. Is Peoples-Jones good? Resounding no. Are the Browns the type of team to air it out? Also no. But with Jarvis Landry injured is Odell Beckham going to come back in his first game back from significant injury and take all of the targets? Also no. DVP just happens to be the right guy for the right routes against the right team. The Bears typically run a version of the Tampa 2 with what is called a 3-4 over concept, and against the Bengals last week they were running a lot over Cover 1-man and disguising cover two with that look. If they run these concepts again, they will almost certainly cheat to protect the run game, leaving huge openings about 10 yards deep where the post routes and crossing routes develop. People-Jones runs three routes almost exclusively. Go routes (which are protected by the outside leverage), post routes, and crossing routes. What was the route he was running last week when he had the ball knocked out? Post route. There were also a handful of plays last week where he also came free but Baker was not looking at his side of the field and he rarely comes off of the field during run situations since he is a decent blocker. DO NOT GO OVERBOARD here. He could get a goose egg, but from what I saw last week and the formations that I am expecting if he gets 4 or 5 targets and takes a crossing route downfield for a score I am not going to be shocked in the least.
We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Another week with some smash hits and some misses has come and gone. Let’s continue to try to keep the hits to a maximum and the misses to a minimum! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. The Colts draw one of the best possible matchups for an NFL passing attack in week 3 on Sunday, but I cannot in my right mind recommend rostering Carson Wentz, or his backup Jacob Eason. Another team that has an impeccable matchup for their passing game is the Baltimore Ravens and their QB who is potentially the best dual threat quarterback in NFL history. Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD) will be facing off against the defense ranked 31st out of 32 in DVOA against the pass on Sunday afternoon, as the Ravens roll into Detroit listed as 8 point favorites. This leaves the Ravens with one of the top three highest implied team totals on the slate, and LJ is a massive part of every scoring drive that this team has. He will definitely cost us a pretty penny, but if we can find some cheap enough ancillary pieces then Lamar is definitely a priority for week 3.
B. Another team that comes to mind when we think of mobile quarterbacks with very high rushing floors is the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) has been shooting up the NFL MVP odds boards almost as quickly as his DFS salary has been shooting up across the industry. With the weapons that he has at his disposal, he is in for an unreal 2021-2022 NFL season. This is definitely a week to target these mobile QBs, as the two top rushing quarterbacks in the league also happen to draw the 2nd and 3rd best possible matchups for an opposing passing attack. The Jaguars defense has struggled to defend nearly everything through the first two weeks, and while their defense is only ranked 19th against the QB position in DVOA, they are ranked 30th against the pass and 24th in overall defense DVOA. This team has scored 38 and 34 points thus far this season, and I do not see the 30+ train stopping this week.
C. My QB3 was the smash spot last week, as I had Tom Brady listed in this spot and he proceeded to roast the pitiful Falcons defense. Daniel Jones ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) has the pleasure of drawing that exact same matchup, and while he could not be much further in skill from the goat, this is the best spot that he will find himself in all season and his price is extremely reasonable. With the high price tags of my first two QB options, I had to find us a cheap arm in an excellent spot for lineups where we want to spend more salary on our skill position players. As I mentioned, if Jones does not smash this week, then we should never play him the rest of this entire season outside of showdown slates. The Falcons are ranked 29th in team defense DVOA, 32nd in DVP against opposing quarterbacks, and 11th in situation-neutral pace of play. While this is obviously only a GPP type of play, even an arm lacking as much skill as Jones should see success in this week 3 matchup.
The Stacks
A. When it comes to the Baltimore Ravens, I tend to avoid any RBs like the plague due to their propensity to have goal line work vultured by Lamar. When it comes to stacking, you only want to pair RBs with your quarterback if they are heavy pass-catching RBs, and none of these Ravens backup runners really fit that bill. Therefore, this leaves us with a three man combo of Hollywood Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews. I am really not very high on Watkins at all after he was essentially a useless ghost nearly every game in Kansas City. If he was useless with one of the best young quarterbacks of all time at the helm, then we cannot expect much from him with Jackson slinging passes. That leaves us with Brown and Andrews as our options for this stack, and we can bring it back with either Quintez Cephus, who looked really solid on Monday night, or T.J. Hockenson who caught a sweet touchdown pass on Monday.
B. You can essentially copy and paste what I said for the Ravens running game down here for the Cardinals. While Chase Edmonds does catch some passes, we pay the price for Kyler in the hope that he gets some rushing TDs, not that he dumps it off at the goal line to Edmonds. Luckily, the Cardinals have essentially zero tight ends that we need to worry about, because we already have our hands full at the wide receiver position. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, rookie sensation Rondale Moore, and even the corpse of A.J. Green are all viable pass catchers for us to stack up with Kyler. I will continue to keep my lineups to a max of two of these guys, because again, there are only so many touchdowns to go around if we expect Kyler to run one or two in. For our bring-back, we should tread lightly with this Jaguars team as usual, and Marvin Jones is finally starting to see his price come up after being insanely underpriced through the first two weeks. DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault are fine options, but definitely limit your lineups to one Jaguar pass catcher in case this team totally flops.
C. The final team that I will be stacking in tournaments for week 3 is the NY Giants, who do have some tight ends and solid receiver options for us to pair up with Daniel Jones. Engram is returning from injury and has not played a snap yet this season, so we will have to keep a close eye on him. If he is playing without a snap count or restriction, then he is definitely in play and Kyle Rudolph becomes a very risky option. If Engram is out again then we can look to Kyle Rudolph to hopefully get there for us by catching a touchdown pass. As far as the wide receivers go, Kenny Golladay has the squeaky wheel narrative after his outburst on the sidelines, and I expect we could see an explosive ceiling game from him on Sunday. Slayton and Shepard are also fine options, but I would prioritize Kenny G in all G-men stacks. As usual, the obvious two run-back options on the Falcons are Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley, as will be the case for what I expect to be this entire season.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
Another week with some smash hits and some misses has come and gone. Let’s continue to try to keep the hits to a maximum and the misses to a minimum! As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. The Colts draw one of the best possible matchups for an NFL passing attack in week 3 on Sunday, but I cannot in my right mind recommend rostering Carson Wentz, or his backup Jacob Eason. Another team that has an impeccable matchup for their passing game is the Baltimore Ravens and their QB who is potentially the best dual threat quarterback in NFL history. Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD) will be facing off against the defense ranked 31st out of 32 in DVOA against the pass on Sunday afternoon, as the Ravens roll into Detroit listed as 8 point favorites. This leaves the Ravens with one of the top three highest implied team totals on the slate, and LJ is a massive part of every scoring drive that this team has. He will definitely cost us a pretty penny, but if we can find some cheap enough ancillary pieces then Lamar is definitely a priority for week 3.
B. Another team that comes to mind when we think of mobile quarterbacks with very high rushing floors is the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) has been shooting up the NFL MVP odds boards almost as quickly as his DFS salary has been shooting up across the industry. With the weapons that he has at his disposal, he is in for an unreal 2021-2022 NFL season. This is definitely a week to target these mobile QBs, as the two top rushing quarterbacks in the league also happen to draw the 2nd and 3rd best possible matchups for an opposing passing attack. The Jaguars defense has struggled to defend nearly everything through the first two weeks, and while their defense is only ranked 19th against the QB position in DVOA, they are ranked 30th against the pass and 24th in overall defense DVOA. This team has scored 38 and 34 points thus far this season, and I do not see the 30+ train stopping this week.
C. My QB3 was the smash spot last week, as I had Tom Brady listed in this spot and he proceeded to roast the pitiful Falcons defense. Daniel Jones ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) has the pleasure of drawing that exact same matchup, and while he could not be much further in skill from the goat, this is the best spot that he will find himself in all season and his price is extremely reasonable. With the high price tags of my first two QB options, I had to find us a cheap arm in an excellent spot for lineups where we want to spend more salary on our skill position players. As I mentioned, if Jones does not smash this week, then we should never play him the rest of this entire season outside of showdown slates. The Falcons are ranked 29th in team defense DVOA, 32nd in DVP against opposing quarterbacks, and 11th in situation-neutral pace of play. While this is obviously only a GPP type of play, even an arm lacking as much skill as Jones should see success in this week 3 matchup.
The Stacks
A. When it comes to the Baltimore Ravens, I tend to avoid any RBs like the plague due to their propensity to have goal line work vultured by Lamar. When it comes to stacking, you only want to pair RBs with your quarterback if they are heavy pass-catching RBs, and none of these Ravens backup runners really fit that bill. Therefore, this leaves us with a three man combo of Hollywood Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews. I am really not very high on Watkins at all after he was essentially a useless ghost nearly every game in Kansas City. If he was useless with one of the best young quarterbacks of all time at the helm, then we cannot expect much from him with Jackson slinging passes. That leaves us with Brown and Andrews as our options for this stack, and we can bring it back with either Quintez Cephus, who looked really solid on Monday night, or T.J. Hockenson who caught a sweet touchdown pass on Monday.
B. You can essentially copy and paste what I said for the Ravens running game down here for the Cardinals. While Chase Edmonds does catch some passes, we pay the price for Kyler in the hope that he gets some rushing TDs, not that he dumps it off at the goal line to Edmonds. Luckily, the Cardinals have essentially zero tight ends that we need to worry about, because we already have our hands full at the wide receiver position. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, rookie sensation Rondale Moore, and even the corpse of A.J. Green are all viable pass catchers for us to stack up with Kyler. I will continue to keep my lineups to a max of two of these guys, because again, there are only so many touchdowns to go around if we expect Kyler to run one or two in. For our bring-back, we should tread lightly with this Jaguars team as usual, and Marvin Jones is finally starting to see his price come up after being insanely underpriced through the first two weeks. DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault are fine options, but definitely limit your lineups to one Jaguar pass catcher in case this team totally flops.
C. The final team that I will be stacking in tournaments for week 3 is the NY Giants, who do have some tight ends and solid receiver options for us to pair up with Daniel Jones. Engram is returning from injury and has not played a snap yet this season, so we will have to keep a close eye on him. If he is playing without a snap count or restriction, then he is definitely in play and Kyle Rudolph becomes a very risky option. If Engram is out again then we can look to Kyle Rudolph to hopefully get there for us by catching a touchdown pass. As far as the wide receivers go, Kenny Golladay has the squeaky wheel narrative after his outburst on the sidelines, and I expect we could see an explosive ceiling game from him on Sunday. Slayton and Shepard are also fine options, but I would prioritize Kenny G in all G-men stacks. As usual, the obvious two run-back options on the Falcons are Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley, as will be the case for what I expect to be this entire season.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week two and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet Jason Mezrahi just dropped his article for his favorite tight ends so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 2 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19
Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.
QB: Justin Herbert (12.43%), Dak Prescott (11.52%), Josh Allen (11.34%), Jalen Hurts (9.5%), Kyler Murray (7.5%)
RB: Najee Harris (22.85%), Chris Carson (17.5%), Austin Ekeler (17.23%), Darrel Henderson (17.00%), Ezekiel Elliott (15.85%)
WR: Keenan Allen (18.54%), Cooper Kupp (17.87%), CeeDee Lamb (15.80%), Amari Cooper (14.92%), DeAndre Hopkins (12.50%)
When I first looked at this slate I saw Chubb against the Texans and thought it would be chalk for sure but his ownership has stayed between 6-8%. While everyone gravitates towards the guys in my chalk report you are getting Chubb at the lowest ownership I think you will see on him all season against the worst run defense in the league. Do not be fooled by week one, Urban Meyer had no clue what he was doing and got down multiple scores before he realized his running backs were averaging 5 yards a carry. Chubb may only get 16 carries and two targets this week but it could legitimately be for 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns.
Last week I was big on Sanders and while he did not go off, nobody named Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon, or Christian McCaffrey did. He did however finish with 17.5 DK points and was a Kenneth Gainwell vulture from having a huge day and ending up on the Milli-Maker winning lineup at only 4% ownership. We find ourselves in what is possibly an even better scenario. If the casual fantasy player sees the 49’ers as the opponent they may fade, but those of us who know that defensive ends Dee Ford and Arik Armstead, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, defensive lineman Dee Greenlaw, and defensive back Emmanuel Mosley are all injured and most are expected to miss Sunday’s game. That leaves huge voids in the Niner’s defense. The run defense is especially vulnerable and even the Lions were able to shred San Fran with both running back on the ground and through the air with both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams catching 8 passes each and Williams averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Niners are a top defense in name only this week and if Sanders sees 15 carries and 6-8, targets his ceiling is as high as any running back in the NFL this week.
Did everyone forget that A-Rob was battling Jalen Ramsey all last week? No, Andy Dalton is not the best QB in the world but since when did a bad quarterback stop Robinson from going off? It did not turn into production but Dalton still targeted him 11 times in week one and guess who he is playing? That’s right folks, Dalton has a revenge game narrative on Sunday and the Bengals just got shredded by Kirk freaking Cousins for 351 yards and 2 TDs. Yet even knowing these things Allen Robinson is projected anywhere between 5-6% ownership in a game that should stay competitive. That is silly and disrespectful to a guy who caught 102 passes for 1250 yards and 6 TD’s with Nick Foles, and Mitch Trubisky, throwing him the ball in 2020 and 98 for 1147 and 7 with Mitch and Chase Daniels in 2019. Plain silly.
What does AB need to do to convince people the he is back to his old form? After catching five of seven target for 121 yards and a touchdown you would think a matchup against a Falcons team that was smashed by the Eagles would garner a little more attention but I’ll take advantage all the same. Dean Pees mentioned the secondary when he arrived to the Falcons saying that “they are young” but what he forgot to add was “they are bad”. If Pees decides to blitz his corners Sunday which he is apt to do, Brady is going to have both Brown and Evans with plus matchups or blown coverages all day.
Honorable mention: Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Derrick Henry
We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Are you looking to a different way to play daily fantasy sports? Want to dip your toe into prop plays? Well, once you are done reading our man StixPicks GPP article then come back because the Win Daily Sports family is now teamed up with the folks at Thrive Fantasy and we are offering an exclusive promotion to Win Daily subscribers. Let us go ahead and get right into the details of each and take a look at some nice props with our WDS:NFL Prop Plays 9.19 Thrive Fantasy
And right now as a bonus there is a huge amount of overlay in the contest that I discuss below. There is also bonuses for this week on top of the normal promo.
– New users that deposit $10 will get a FREE Ticket to Sunday’s $100K Contest
– New users that deposit $20 or more will get a 2 FREE Tickets to Sunday’s $100K Contest New users will still receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100 as well.
Thrive has a really interesting format. They have a VS format that is similar to the Rapidfire contest that we love on MKF, but they also have a Traditional format that is really neat. Instead of purely using props, you have a pool of players with their respective over/under, and depending on whether you pick the over or the under there is a point total attached to whatever you pick. If you are correct, those points will be added to your score. With Versus you have an either or choice with who you think will outperform who, just be sure to check each player because one of them will get some kind of boost to level the playing field. It sounds more confusing than it is so check the How to Play section and take a look below at the contest I am playing to see what I mean.
The points and numbers update over time so if you see a batch of plays where you feel like you have an edge, get in there early and maximize the projected points you think you can get. This week I am going to be showcasing their versus mode, but there is huge overlay no matter what contest you play so hop in there and have some fun! Blending a little risk to get more points with stable options for floor will give you a solid foundation to put up a big number and find your way to the top of the leaderboard.
Let’s take a look at my selections below and see why I landed where I did.
Stafford over Carr +14.5 passing yards
Ravens man coverage was bad last week and I expect the Steelers to get a lot more pressure on Carr this week, Stafford still does not have what I call a potent run game and he looks great in LA after one week.
Sanders +10.5 yards over Johnathan Taylor
Niners defense is the walking wounded. I would have taken this straight up without the bonus and the Rams are still a solid run front. I see them bouncing back in week two.
Kittle over Higbee +1.5 receptions
Kittle is personally my favorite tight end this week. San Fran’s defense is badly hurt and the Eagles will force them to keep up. Kittle may end up with more than 15 targets this week.
Herbert over Burrow +0.5 TD’s
There is no total high enough for me in that Dallas/Chargers game. I like Burrow just fine but a Half TD is not nearly enough when Herbert could be looking at a 400 yard game with 3+ passing TD’s against a tissue paper soft defense.
Jameis Winston over Kyler Murray +0.5 INT’s
Jamies need to show me again before I believe it. Simple as that. You don’t go from 4 int’s a game to none overnight. I think he reverts back against a divisional opponent.
Dak Precott over Russell Wilson +10.5 passing yards
Russ is a beast but he is also more efficient. Dak is gonna have to go shot for show with Herbert tomorrow. Herbert and Precott will be 1 and 2 in the NFL in passing yards this week and I do not even think it will be close.
Tyreek Hill over Marquis Brown +0.5 receptions
The #1 receiver in the most prolific passing attack in the league with the best QB in the league throwing it 50 times a game or the #1 wide receiver in the least prolific passing game in the NFL with a running QB who throws the ball 25 times a game?
I really had a fun time taking a look at what Thrive Fantasy has to offer for new players this season in WDS:NFL Prop Plays 9.19 Thrive Fantasy. Do not forget to hop into WinDaily Discord chat if you have any questions. Do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Well that was certainly an eventful week 1, with plenty of surprises around the NFL. This is a lookahead article though, so I will be turning the page to week 2. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. My number one QB for week 1 worked out pretty well and I hope our members were able to profit off of it as I had Kyler Murray in this spot. It would be easy to just go back to him again and you definitely can, but I will get a big more creative here. One of my favorite quarterbacks to target for week 2 is Mac Jones ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD).Before you go calling me nothing but a homer, I have the data to back this up. First of all, those prices are insanely enticing for a quarterback that now has a real life NFL game under his belt, and also looked great in his debut to begin with. Mac had the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in their first NFL start in history. Now, he is rewarded with a matchup against the Jets, who rank dead last in DVOA vs. the pass and 28th in total DVOA. While it is tough to put much emphasis on rankings after just one week, the Patriots are favored by nearly a touchdown in this spot and I expect an NFL coming out party for McCorkle on Sunday afternoon.
B. While my first QB was a smash hit last week, my second two left a bit to be desired for us, so let’s make sure that all three do well this week. A second quarterback for us to look to in GPP contests is Baker Mayfield ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD). Baker looked great on Sunday, as he lead the Browns (without OBJ), to a near wire-to-wire win over the reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. OBJ has already been ruled out again this week, but it would have been foolish of the Browns to bring him back against the hopeless Houston Texans. The Texans are right there with the Jets, ranking second to last in DVOA against the pass, and Baker should be able to pick apart this horrendous defense with ease. The Browns offensive line was not great, but the Jets defensive line was the 6th worst, so Baker should have plenty of time as well. While the game may not be competitive, Baker will play a massive part in any sort of blowout.
C. While I do expect Mac to be extremely low owned, Baker should garner a decent amount of ownership this Sunday. Going back to the low-owned well with my QB3, I will be targeting father time, Tom Brady ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD). Brady looked sharp as ever on Thursday night, and all of the haters calling for him to drop off a cliff will have to wait at least another year. TB12 was still slinging absolute darts around the field like very few quarterbacks in this league can. So, what is his reward for this? A cakewalk matchup against an Atlanta Falcons team that never seems to know how to play defense year after year. The ATL ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass, and also ranks 26th in defense against specifically the QB position. This game is also not expected to be very competitive, but again, if it is not then Tom Brady will have 3+ touchdowns to his name, with potentially a rushing TD from Leonard Fournette tossed in for good measure. Nobody will play Tom due to his nonexistent rushing ability, but at these prices and ownerships 3 passing TDs and 300+ yards will do just fine.
The Stacks
A. The DVOA numbers against the pass that I mentioned above also apply to the pass catchers that I will be covering in this section, so I will not mention them again for the sake of brevity. Entering week 2, we do not have a clear-cut WR1 on this Patriots team, although the DraftKings pricing does favor Jakobi Meyers and his nine week 1 targets. I tend to side with the more seasoned Nelson Agholor in this 1v1, so I will gladly take the $300 salary savings if choosing just one wideout to pair with Mac Jones. Outside of these two, steer far away from any other Pats WRs, but you can always look to James White and his seven week 1 targets out of the backfield. The TEs are only priced $200 apart, which is not enough for me to have any interest in Henry over Jonnu Smith. Lastly, as is going to be customary with the Jets, I will not be looking to force in any bring-backs, although if you must then Corey Davis is definitely the go-to option for the rookie.
B. The Browns stack also is a bit less straightforward than our final stack of the week that I will cover below. With the Browns, it would normally be the easy options of OBJ and Jarvis Landry, however with OBJ already declared out for week 2, that puts Landry into near must play status in any lineups that have Baker in them. The TE situation in Cleveland is even less clear than the Patriots two-headed monster, as we have Hooper, Njoku, and Bryant all lurking on the depth chart. Due to this, my plan with the Browns is to have plenty of Mayfield/Landry combinations, and I will also sprinkle some Nick Chubb, and to a lesser extent Kareem Hunt, into those lineups. The nice thing about looking at an awful team for a bring-back is that it really makes things easy. Brandin Cooks is our absolute only viable option from this Texans squad so target him if you are looking to game stack.
C. To close out week 2, we get one of the easiest stacks to break down in the entire NFL. There are four pass catchers that will draw the large majority of targets from the arm that was sent from the gods. Here are their target shares from week 1: Evans – 6, Godwin – 14, Brown – 7, and Gronk – 8. Week 2 is one of the largest over-reaction weeks in all of sports, so I intend to be much higher on Evans than the three other options listed here because not only did he receive the fewest targets, but he also was the only one that did not catch a tuddy (hell, Gronk even caught two). As we saw on Thursday, three of these four can all eat in one game as long as the Bucs post 4+ touchdowns. I would limit our Bucs stacks to three of these pass catchers, but I am definitely more likely to stick with two, and Evans will almost always be one of them. Unlike our first two stacks, we do have some very intriguing options for the bring-back here with Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons absolutely laid an egg week 1, so Ridley and Pitts both underperformed and both were pretty popular DFS options. That is the premier recipe for low ownership, and this is my favorite game stack of week 2.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
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