week1

Week 4 was another intriguing one across the NFL, as we had a variety of storylines, with the headliner being TB12 and his return to Foxboro. That game certainly did not disappoint, and neither did my QBs and stacks, so let’s try to keep the train rolling this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Similar to most DFS players, I have yet to roster Kirk Cousins ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD), but if there is a week to target him then this is absolutely that week. Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings offense will be facing off against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 31st in total defense DVOA, which is pretty similar to what their expectation was coming into the season. It is no secret that this team is bottom of the barrel on both sides of the football, and we should look to get exposure to whatever offense is facing them each week. They also clock in at 29th in DvP against the QB position. Outside of week 4, Cousins has had three games with great production, especially at this current price tag. In the first three weeks of the season, Cousins exceeded 300 passing yards twice and the one time that he did not, he had 35 rushing yards and three passing TDs. Kirk has 9 TDs against only one interception so far this season, and has quietly been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks from a points scored perspective. I am hoping that the snoozer of a game against the Browns keeps the masses off of him for week 5 of the NFL, as he is one of the best tournament plays out there.

B. Another team that struggles to limit the damage against opposing quarterbacks is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) draws the best possible matchup for a quarterback, as the Jaguars have a bottom tier defense any way that you slice it. Ranking 30th in total DVOA, 32nd against the pass, and 29th in adjusted sack rate, the Titans should be able to bounce back after a shockingly pathetic loss to the New York Jets. In week 5 of the NFL, Tennessee should have star receiver A.J. Brown back, but Julio Jones is questionable as has been the case for every single game the last few years. Tannehill should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart a weak defensive unit that should not take much time to dismantle. I would prefer to pay the extra $100 on DK and get up to Cousins, as he has three games of 20+ fantasy points compared to just one for the Titans passer, however if the Cousins ownership comes in higher than expected then this is a great choice at the same price range.

C. A team that is more under the radar this Sunday due to a lower team total than quite a few other options is the New Orleans Saints, who start a very boom or bust quarterback in Jameis Winston ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD). Despite facing a Washington Football team that ranks 28th in total DVOA, 29th in DVOA against the pass, and DEAD LAST (32nd) in DvP against the quarterback position. According to the numbers, this is the best matchup for an opposing quarterback, and yet I expect Winston to carry nearly no ownership. This price on DraftKings is honestly unbelievable, but that is what happens when someone puts together three awful games in a row. I expect that we see week 1 Jameis come out to play in this spot, and with an 8/2 TD/interception ratio, he has not been as careless with the ball as in years past. This is definitely a risky play given the form, but at this price and ownership in this matchup, I think that having an overweight approach to Winston is a must.

The Stacks

A. This Vikings team has two clear top dogs at the WR position along with a clear top dog at the RB position. However, it is not all obvious and easy here, as Dalvin Cook has been nursing an ankle injury and even though he played last week, he only saw 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in an affair where his team could only muster seven points. I will be avoiding this rushing attack due to the uncertainty surrounding Cook’s workload, but I would not blame you for taking some shots on him in lower-stakes tournaments. As far as week 5 targets go, Jefferson only has two more catches than Thielen on the season, yet he is $1,100 more expensive on DraftKings and will be much chalkier as well. If choosing one of these guys for tournaments, it absolutely needs to be Thielen, but I am of course fine with targeting both of these pass catchers. On the other side of the ball, after rostering Swift last week and watching the disaster that is the Lions offense in the red zone, I will be staying far away from any players on this team, including Swift and Hockenson, on any slate that is not a showdown this season.

B. As I mentioned above, we will need to take a wait and see approach with this team for week 5 of the NFL since Julio Jones is listed as questionable. This will likely be the case this entire season unless Julio is ruled out for an extended period or takes a trip to the IR. Regardless of the status of Julio, we do know that A.J. Brown is our top option for any Tennessee stacks, and with the number of passes that Derrick Henry has been catching so far this season I am more than fine adding him to these stacks as well. If Julio suits up then of course he is another good addition to our teams, but if he is out then I will keep my Titans exposure to just the two aforementioned players. As we saw in week 4, even with Brown and Jones out of the lineup, the rest of the receiving options on this team are painful. The tricky thing about targeting teams that have awful defenses is that they often have awful offenses as well. That is the case for most of my stacks, however with D.J. Chark suffering an injury last week, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault both enter the conversation as possible bring-back options. I would limit my teams to just one of these two as opposed to both, since this Jaguars squad just does not have any real upside.

C. To wrap things up, we have my bold call of the week as I look to stack up the New Orleans Saints in their matchup against the Washington Football Team. With only a 22-23 point team total on the week and three poor performances in a row from Winston, I would be shocked if this team was even in the top five in terms of popularity for week 5. That is music to any NFL tournament player’s ears, and as long as Taysom Hill does not continue his vulture spree, we could be looking at a big payday in this matchup. The tricky thing here is choosing a pass catcher to stack with Winston outside of Kamara. This is a rare scenario where we actually have a much more reliable option for our bring-back than we do for our main stack. Terry McLaurin is the clear top dog for WFT, and with the Logan Thomas injury we also can target Ricky Seals-Jones since he played 100% of the snaps after Thomas went down. As far as the Saints, we can look to Marquez Callaway if we must, but I am also fine sticking to just Winston and Kamara for Sunday.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

Week 4 was another intriguing one across the NFL, as we had a variety of storylines, with the headliner being TB12 and his return to Foxboro. That game certainly did not disappoint, and neither did my QBs and stacks, so let’s try to keep the train rolling this week. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Similar to most DFS players, I have yet to roster Kirk Cousins ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD), but if there is a week to target him then this is absolutely that week. Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings offense will be facing off against a Detroit Lions defense that ranks 31st in total defense DVOA, which is pretty similar to what their expectation was coming into the season. It is no secret that this team is bottom of the barrel on both sides of the football, and we should look to get exposure to whatever offense is facing them each week. They also clock in at 29th in DvP against the QB position. Outside of week 4, Cousins has had three games with great production, especially at this current price tag. In the first three weeks of the season, Cousins exceeded 300 passing yards twice and the one time that he did not, he had 35 rushing yards and three passing TDs. Kirk has 9 TDs against only one interception so far this season, and has quietly been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks from a points scored perspective. I am hoping that the snoozer of a game against the Browns keeps the masses off of him for week 5 of the NFL, as he is one of the best tournament plays out there.

B. Another team that struggles to limit the damage against opposing quarterbacks is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) draws the best possible matchup for a quarterback, as the Jaguars have a bottom tier defense any way that you slice it. Ranking 30th in total DVOA, 32nd against the pass, and 29th in adjusted sack rate, the Titans should be able to bounce back after a shockingly pathetic loss to the New York Jets. In week 5 of the NFL, Tennessee should have star receiver A.J. Brown back, but Julio Jones is questionable as has been the case for every single game the last few years. Tannehill should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart a weak defensive unit that should not take much time to dismantle. I would prefer to pay the extra $100 on DK and get up to Cousins, as he has three games of 20+ fantasy points compared to just one for the Titans passer, however if the Cousins ownership comes in higher than expected then this is a great choice at the same price range.

C. A team that is more under the radar this Sunday due to a lower team total than quite a few other options is the New Orleans Saints, who start a very boom or bust quarterback in Jameis Winston ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD). Despite facing a Washington Football team that ranks 28th in total DVOA, 29th in DVOA against the pass, and DEAD LAST (32nd) in DvP against the quarterback position. According to the numbers, this is the best matchup for an opposing quarterback, and yet I expect Winston to carry nearly no ownership. This price on DraftKings is honestly unbelievable, but that is what happens when someone puts together three awful games in a row. I expect that we see week 1 Jameis come out to play in this spot, and with an 8/2 TD/interception ratio, he has not been as careless with the ball as in years past. This is definitely a risky play given the form, but at this price and ownership in this matchup, I think that having an overweight approach to Winston is a must.

The Stacks

A. This Vikings team has two clear top dogs at the WR position along with a clear top dog at the RB position. However, it is not all obvious and easy here, as Dalvin Cook has been nursing an ankle injury and even though he played last week, he only saw 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in an affair where his team could only muster seven points. I will be avoiding this rushing attack due to the uncertainty surrounding Cook’s workload, but I would not blame you for taking some shots on him in lower-stakes tournaments. As far as week 5 targets go, Jefferson only has two more catches than Thielen on the season, yet he is $1,100 more expensive on DraftKings and will be much chalkier as well. If choosing one of these guys for tournaments, it absolutely needs to be Thielen, but I am of course fine with targeting both of these pass catchers. On the other side of the ball, after rostering Swift last week and watching the disaster that is the Lions offense in the red zone, I will be staying far away from any players on this team, including Swift and Hockenson, on any slate that is not a showdown this season.

B. As I mentioned above, we will need to take a wait and see approach with this team for week 5 of the NFL since Julio Jones is listed as questionable. This will likely be the case this entire season unless Julio is ruled out for an extended period or takes a trip to the IR. Regardless of the status of Julio, we do know that A.J. Brown is our top option for any Tennessee stacks, and with the number of passes that Derrick Henry has been catching so far this season I am more than fine adding him to these stacks as well. If Julio suits up then of course he is another good addition to our teams, but if he is out then I will keep my Titans exposure to just the two aforementioned players. As we saw in week 4, even with Brown and Jones out of the lineup, the rest of the receiving options on this team are painful. The tricky thing about targeting teams that have awful defenses is that they often have awful offenses as well. That is the case for most of my stacks, however with D.J. Chark suffering an injury last week, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault both enter the conversation as possible bring-back options. I would limit my teams to just one of these two as opposed to both, since this Jaguars squad just does not have any real upside.

C. To wrap things up, we have my bold call of the week as I look to stack up the New Orleans Saints in their matchup against the Washington Football Team. With only a 22-23 point team total on the week and three poor performances in a row from Winston, I would be shocked if this team was even in the top five in terms of popularity for week 5. That is music to any NFL tournament player’s ears, and as long as Taysom Hill does not continue his vulture spree, we could be looking at a big payday in this matchup. The tricky thing here is choosing a pass catcher to stack with Winston outside of Kamara. This is a rare scenario where we actually have a much more reliable option for our bring-back than we do for our main stack. Terry McLaurin is the clear top dog for WFT, and with the Logan Thomas injury we also can target Ricky Seals-Jones since he played 100% of the snaps after Thomas went down. As far as the Saints, we can look to Marquez Callaway if we must, but I am also fine sticking to just Winston and Kamara for Sunday.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

Week 3 was mostly a bust for yours truly as I tried to get a bit too cute with some Jaguars stacks. Luckily I now am very well aware of how much Trevor Lawrence and the Jags suck, so I will not be making that mistake again. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Similar to most of the DFS industry, I have yet to roster Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,700 FD) and his weapons in this young NFL season. Obviously the reasoning has nothing to do with the talent, upside, or stack options and all to do with the consistently exorbitant price tags of this Chiefs stack. Unfortunately, I am not here to tell you that this team is suddenly extremely affordable this week, so we will definitely need to find some cheap ancillary pieces to get exposure to. However, I expect the Chiefs to smash to a similar degree that they did in week 1. This game is tied for the highest total of the week with the Cardinals and Rams matchup, and I do not expect the Chiefs to be very popular yet again. This team has let down bettors and DFS players the last two weeks, and their prices have not exactly dropped very much. Without any chalky value plays jumping out at this point in the week, DFS players will again have a very difficult time affording this team unless they hate the rest of their lineup. I think that we can find a way to make this stack work this week and the Chiefs should live up to their expectations as the team with the highest implied total.

B. If Patrick Mahomes does end up catching a significant amount of ownership, then I can assure your that my second quarterback will not. Matt Ryan ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD) is definitely approaching the end of his career, there is no arguing that, but I feel strongly that he still has a few ceiling games left in him this season. This is a great spot for one as he faces a Washington Football Team that is ranked 30th in total defense DVOA and 26th in DVOA against the pass. This team has surrendered production to the quarterback position at the 27th highest rate, and while this game does not jump off the page in terms of an over/under, the ownership will be nearly non-existent. Washington struggles heavily against the run as well, but with the two stars of this offense slotting in as pass-catchers, I expect the damage to come through the air in this one.

C. I am not sure that I have written up a single quarterback twice through four weeks of this young NFL season, and that will not come to an end here. Russell Wilson ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) and the Seattle Seahawks will head to San Francisco to face off against the 49ers for the afternoon portion of the main slate this Sunday. This is a sneaky game to target because the total is not in the top four for the week, but it does slot in at number five and is only a few points behind the two games tied for the highest total which are likely to be much chalkier. The 49ers defense has not seen very much success through the first three weeks, ranking 24th in total DVOA, 27th against the pass, and 18th against the run. The clear way to attack this defense so far this season has been through the air, and that is what I expect Pete Carroll to do in this spot. We should see Russ get cooking as a slight road underdog in a soft matchup for quarterbacks with a very solid over/under.

The Stacks

A. The Chiefs side of this stack is very obvious if you watch any football at all, so I will touch on it briefly but focus more on the other side of the ball as we search for potential game-stack correlations. Some like to get cute with the Chiefs and target the ancillary pass catchers of Hardman, Robinson, or even Pringle, but if we are getting tournament-winning upside out of this team it will not be from these guys. The obvious options are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and I will keep all of my Chiefs stacks to either one of both of these two guys. On the other side of the ball, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor are the two top dogs, which does not exactly inspire any confidence in a bring-back. The Eagles looked absolutely horrendous against the Cowboys on Monday night, and while the KC defense has not exactly been great, this Eagles team is horrible. I will likely avoid rostering any Philly players this week, but if you do then you can hope Smith wakes up, as he had absolutely zero impact on the MNF game in Dallas.

B. We have a similar situation for the second stack that I am targeting, as we have two clear top dogs and then not much else. The difference with this game stack however, is that we do have a few very solid options on the other side of the ball. I will limit my Falcons stacks to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, although I do have more interest on the WFT tight end Logan Thomas than I have in Pitts. Pitts has not had anything more than three pedestrian performances thus far, which is expected out of tight ends, especially those of the rookie variety. However, he is priced up across the industry and I would rather take the ownership and salary savings that Thomas provides. Our other two options from WFT are Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. While I would not want to get exposure to more than one WFT pass catcher per lineup, Taylor Heinicke actually looks much better than I expected, so this game certainly has shootout potential.

C. The final game that I will be looking to stack in NFL GPPs this Sunday is the Seattle Seahawks vs. the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks are always an interesting case because similar to other teams, they do have two clear top dogs in the offense. However unlike other teams, these two pass catchers both play WR, and when one goes off the other tends to disappear. If you look at any type of correlation data, you will see that other teams that have a top player at TE and a top player at WR tend to have those two players correlate much higher than Lockett and Metcalf correlate. Due to this, I typically only get access to one of these two pass catchers per lineup, but I would not fault you for going with both and hoping Russ throws 40+ passes. On the 49ers side of the ball, we have Deebo Samuel who is off to a scorching start this season, Brandon Aiyuk who is letting a ton of people down, and George Kittle who is arguably the third best tight end in the league behind Kelce and Waller. This may be recency bias, but I am definitely off of Aiyuk until he shows us something. For that reason, I will keep my bring-backs limited to Samuel and/or Kittle.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

Week 3 was mostly a bust for yours truly as I tried to get a bit too cute with some Jaguars stacks. Luckily I now am very well aware of how much Trevor Lawrence and the Jags suck, so I will not be making that mistake again. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. Similar to most of the DFS industry, I have yet to roster Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,700 FD) and his weapons in this young NFL season. Obviously the reasoning has nothing to do with the talent, upside, or stack options and all to do with the consistently exorbitant price tags of this Chiefs stack. Unfortunately, I am not here to tell you that this team is suddenly extremely affordable this week, so we will definitely need to find some cheap ancillary pieces to get exposure to. However, I expect the Chiefs to smash to a similar degree that they did in week 1. This game is tied for the highest total of the week with the Cardinals and Rams matchup, and I do not expect the Chiefs to be very popular yet again. This team has let down bettors and DFS players the last two weeks, and their prices have not exactly dropped very much. Without any chalky value plays jumping out at this point in the week, DFS players will again have a very difficult time affording this team unless they hate the rest of their lineup. I think that we can find a way to make this stack work this week and the Chiefs should live up to their expectations as the team with the highest implied total.

B. If Patrick Mahomes does end up catching a significant amount of ownership, then I can assure your that my second quarterback will not. Matt Ryan ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD) is definitely approaching the end of his career, there is no arguing that, but I feel strongly that he still has a few ceiling games left in him this season. This is a great spot for one as he faces a Washington Football Team that is ranked 30th in total defense DVOA and 26th in DVOA against the pass. This team has surrendered production to the quarterback position at the 27th highest rate, and while this game does not jump off the page in terms of an over/under, the ownership will be nearly non-existent. Washington struggles heavily against the run as well, but with the two stars of this offense slotting in as pass-catchers, I expect the damage to come through the air in this one.

C. I am not sure that I have written up a single quarterback twice through four weeks of this young NFL season, and that will not come to an end here. Russell Wilson ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) and the Seattle Seahawks will head to San Francisco to face off against the 49ers for the afternoon portion of the main slate this Sunday. This is a sneaky game to target because the total is not in the top four for the week, but it does slot in at number five and is only a few points behind the two games tied for the highest total which are likely to be much chalkier. The 49ers defense has not seen very much success through the first three weeks, ranking 24th in total DVOA, 27th against the pass, and 18th against the run. The clear way to attack this defense so far this season has been through the air, and that is what I expect Pete Carroll to do in this spot. We should see Russ get cooking as a slight road underdog in a soft matchup for quarterbacks with a very solid over/under.

The Stacks

A. The Chiefs side of this stack is very obvious if you watch any football at all, so I will touch on it briefly but focus more on the other side of the ball as we search for potential game-stack correlations. Some like to get cute with the Chiefs and target the ancillary pass catchers of Hardman, Robinson, or even Pringle, but if we are getting tournament-winning upside out of this team it will not be from these guys. The obvious options are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and I will keep all of my Chiefs stacks to either one of both of these two guys. On the other side of the ball, DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor are the two top dogs, which does not exactly inspire any confidence in a bring-back. The Eagles looked absolutely horrendous against the Cowboys on Monday night, and while the KC defense has not exactly been great, this Eagles team is horrible. I will likely avoid rostering any Philly players this week, but if you do then you can hope Smith wakes up, as he had absolutely zero impact on the MNF game in Dallas.

B. We have a similar situation for the second stack that I am targeting, as we have two clear top dogs and then not much else. The difference with this game stack however, is that we do have a few very solid options on the other side of the ball. I will limit my Falcons stacks to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, although I do have more interest on the WFT tight end Logan Thomas than I have in Pitts. Pitts has not had anything more than three pedestrian performances thus far, which is expected out of tight ends, especially those of the rookie variety. However, he is priced up across the industry and I would rather take the ownership and salary savings that Thomas provides. Our other two options from WFT are Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. While I would not want to get exposure to more than one WFT pass catcher per lineup, Taylor Heinicke actually looks much better than I expected, so this game certainly has shootout potential.

C. The final game that I will be looking to stack in NFL GPPs this Sunday is the Seattle Seahawks vs. the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks are always an interesting case because similar to other teams, they do have two clear top dogs in the offense. However unlike other teams, these two pass catchers both play WR, and when one goes off the other tends to disappear. If you look at any type of correlation data, you will see that other teams that have a top player at TE and a top player at WR tend to have those two players correlate much higher than Lockett and Metcalf correlate. Due to this, I typically only get access to one of these two pass catchers per lineup, but I would not fault you for going with both and hoping Russ throws 40+ passes. On the 49ers side of the ball, we have Deebo Samuel who is off to a scorching start this season, Brandon Aiyuk who is letting a ton of people down, and George Kittle who is arguably the third best tight end in the league behind Kelce and Waller. This may be recency bias, but I am definitely off of Aiyuk until he shows us something. For that reason, I will keep my bring-backs limited to Samuel and/or Kittle.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!