Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt’s first start for his new team — the New York Mets! But there’s no enough rain in the area to fade him or any of the Mets’ bats considering a delay would only be likely much later in the game.
There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, and Verlander certainly has some of that coming off TJ surgery. But even with that as a factor, the veteran has the best chance to go deeper into this game than the other arms and has the best projection from a strikeouts/IP standpoint on FanDuel. There’s enough of a gap between him and the rest of the arms to consider him the best play in both cash games and GPPs. I firmly believe that a lot of the concerns folks have about Verlander boil down to typical DFS smokescreens they’ve gleaned from some of his comments, and not actual data. The next guy might end up making sense for large-field GPPs, but Verlander always finds a way to get it done, carried a super low 3.03 and 3.18 xFIP in his last two complete seasons (2018 and 2019), and the Angels have plenty of swing-and-miss potential (and not that much pop) one we get past Ohtani and Trout.
I may disagree with WinDaily’s Adam Strangis in his assessment of Verlander in his must-read MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/9 article, but I really like his support of Musgrove, who should see lower ownership as DFS participants search for value or the safety of a name like Verlander. The D-Backs are off to s slow start offensively and Musgrove could turn in a 40-point performance if he can navigate through the left-handed bats in Arizona. I can’t say I’m not concerned about the high HR/FB rates over his career, but Musgrove is a better first half pitcher with a full tank of gas — we just need it to not catch fire.
Bassitt finds himself out of Oakland and pitching for a new team on the road in the nation’s capital, but there’s plenty to like from a game theory perspective about using him tonight. Both SPs in this game offer GPP upside, but more could flock to Joan Adon on both sites given his punt price. Bassitt posted a respectable if somewhat inflated 3.93 xFIP last season compared to the 3.15 ERA, but he’s great at missing bats (0.86 WHIP and 9.10 K/9). Adam’s article points out that Bassitt “kept both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA” — a stat which really stood out. You may need to use Adon in a few if you’re stacking Coors tonight, but if you want to piece together a couple of contrarian stacks and go for the big win in large-field GPPs, Bassitt could be the right path.
We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, and the Dodgers are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies in their projected total. That means nabbing Mookie Betts ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,300) and Trea Turner ($4,500), but it would be a slap in the face if I didn’t mention Will Smith ($3,900 — see what I did there?) or Max Muncy at $3,800. It’s also a good idea to do a few wraparound stacks that include 9-hitter Gavin Lux at an affordable $2,900. They won’t be easy to fit,
If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers or messing around with a popular Coors Field game, you can pivot to the World Champion Atlanta Braves and their impressive projected total (>5.5) against a very hittable Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds. After the obvious core (1-4) stack of Eddie Rosario ($3,000), Matt Olson ($3,800), Austin Riley ($3,900), and Ozzie Albies ($4,100), we’ve got a couple of possible value plays in Adam Duvall and Alex Dickerson. Duvall has been known to double-dong his way to GPP-winning glory, and Dickerson, if he’s the DH in the lineup, has much less upside but is very cheap for a positive-splits option in a potent lineup. I may deploy a wait-and-see approach to Marcell Ozuna until I see him getting comfortable at the plate again, but he’s also cheap at $3,000.
Lost in the slate and the disappointment over the absence of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is a Padres lineup that still has plenty of potential and some powerful bats. I’m prioritizing Manny Machado ($3,800), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300), Trent Grisham ($3,100) and newcomer Luke Voit ($2,700), but there’s even more value in guys like Wil Myers ($2,600) and Eric Hosmer ($2,400). I love that the NL has adopted the DH because we can more easily take advantage of value stacks like the Padres with that extra big bat, and opposing pitcher Zach Davies doesn’t scare me one bit.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there’s a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cubs-Cards is the worst of it.
Giolito has pretty balanced splits against both sides of the plate, which is a good thing when facing a Tigers lineup that’s full of switch-hitters. While there are some rain concerns in this game, most of the heavy stuff probably stays south of the ballpark, and there’s a good chance they just play through some lighter rain. It’s one of the early games, so we’ll have to check back on the radar before lock and hopefully get confirmation there’s no late start or delay — which could complicate things. But I love his upside on a slate where Corbin Burnes and Julio Urias both have tough matchups and could have an early hook. The White Sox righty, on the other hand, should go a little deeper into this game and has the highest projected FD total of the slate — and the most upside. Aside form his last start in Detroit on July 4, he’s handled the Tigers (who have the third-highest K rate in MLB) pretty well this season. Giolito is a fine play in all formats.
Flexen isn’t a dazzling SP option, but he’s usually god for 5-6 Ks and almost always pitches 5-7 innings — an important factor when we consider the stage of the season we’re at. The Angels are sporting the second-worst team wOBA in baseball over the past 14 days (.273) with a paltry .218/.302/.322 slash line in that span. Flexen’s upside is capped at around 50 FD points, but he’s got a great shot at hitting 35-40 points if you’re looking for some safety. As long as he stays away from throwing too many cutters (the Angels hit that pitch relatively well), he’ll have success with his fastball/curveball combo.
Gallen hasn’t had the season many hoped for, as the righty showed lots of promise during his first two seasons in the big leagues. But he’s been a thorn in the side of the Rockies, pitching well in his last start in Coors (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER and 9 Ks — good for 52 FD points on Aug. 21). Even when he got “rocked by the Rockies” earlier in a home start, he struck out seven batters. I love him as a cheap contrarian play who could have a ceiling game against a lineup that’s got nothing to strive for except their pride.
I’m assuming the Braves won’t sit everyone again tonight since the lineup core got a breather on Friday, but we’ll have to check back before lock to make sure they’re playing. Even with an early yank, these hitters have plenty of upside and could pile up some runs in the first few innings facing Mets SP Trevor Williams. The priority bats are Freddie Freeman ($3,900), Jorge Soler ($3,400), Adam Duvall ($3,300), Eddie Rosario ($3,000). Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies would be in play, but are expected to get the night off.
The Twins have a slew of excellent hitters in absolute SMASH spots tonight versus Royals SP Kris Bubic, and I’ll be starting my stacks with Jorge Polanco ($3,600), Byron Buxton ($4,100) and Josh Donaldson ($3,400). We can choose our fourth hitter from riskier but high-upside cheaper options like Mitch Garver ($3,100), Miguel Sano ($2,500) and Brent Rooker ($2,200). They’ll be my primary GPP stack and should produce a lot of fireworks tonight.
We don’t write up the D-backs much in this space, but they matchup up well against Antonio Senzetela, who’s been okay this season but has struggled through his past few starts. I’ll have at least a couple GPP lineups Arizona stacks featuring an array of hitters form the 1-6 spots in their order, prioritizing Ketel Marte ($3,400), David Peralta ($2,300), Daulton Varsho ($2,300), Pavin Smith ($2,100) and Carson Kelly ($2,400), with a few shares of cheap (and near-minimum price) leadoff hitter Josh Rojas ($2,100).
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.
He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.
Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.
He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.
If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.
This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.
Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.
Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.
I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.
Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.
It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.
Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.
If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
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