Valero Open

The PGA Tour continues its Texas swing in San Antonio this week as 140 players battle at The Valero Texas Open. I encourage everyone to check out the PGA Draftcast for the course breakdown and some deep dives into this field. It’s also very important to stay close to the Win Daily Sports PGA Discord tomorrow as Steven will have some insight from the course itself along with updated weather information. And finally, don’t forget about Steven and Spencer’s article coming out Wednesday for some more analysis, ownership and DFS picks. Now, let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Rory McIlroy (11200) – The best in the field and I’m not sure it’s super close. Doesn’t have the experience that I normally prefer, but this is a pretty straightforward course and that shouldn’t be a big issue. I like the fact that he didn’t participate in the match play and I expect him to be fresh and to want to take this tournament down, in spite of the look ahead spot. UPDATE: Steven went out to Rory’s Tuesday’s Valero practice round and stated Rory did not look good. I’m keeping him as a pick, but I’ll point out that I like Spieth and Bryson as alternatives (mainly Spieth).

Chris Kirk (9400) – Great history at The Valero and great recent form. He’ll likely be very chalky, but I’ll still play him in some GPPs. He’s a pretty obvious play in cash as well.

Gary Woodland (9300) – This course requires a bit of everything and a bit of everything is exactly what Woodland has. He’s been very good lately, and yet, remains slightly under the radar. Wouldn’t shock me to see him come in here and win. Tied for 6th here last year along with Chris Kirk.

Adam Hadwin (8900) – Another guy to likely be very popular this week as the recent form has been very good and continues to trend upward. Should be a great course fit and had a solid showing at The Valero last year with a 23rd place finish.

Mito Pereira (8100) – No experience here, but a big time value with great upside. Mito has been great T2G and on APP as of late, but curiously average SG Par 5. I expect that to change this week and I’m hoping the putter cooperates as well.

Patton Kizzire (8000) – Another great value who has great recent form and finished 9th at The Valero here last year. He’s been doing very well in a lot of key metrics including SG Par 5, APP, and oh yea, DK points.

Martin Laird (7500) – He’s burned me the last two tournaments but this looks like a venue where he has some comfort based on his finishing positions. Add to that his metrics are off the charts, aside from the dreaded putter. Over the last two tournaments he’s lost nearly 10 strokes PUTT which simply awful. With that said, I suspect he’s comfortable on these greens based on his finishing positions and the PUTT historically being ok at this venue. Proceed with caution.

Matthew NeSmith (7100) – A pretty big steal in my opinion, especially if you’re going by very recent form (last 12 rounds). He has seemed to capture some of the APP play that he was known for a couple of years back and he’s also keeping it in the fairway and scoring very well on the Par 5s. That’s exactly what you want here. Finished 34th here last year. I’ll note I think Doug Ghim, Matt Kuchar and Beau Hossler are sneaky in this range as well.

Doc Redman (6700) – Much like NeSmith, Doc appears to have found some of his old game and grades out well above average in the field in plenty of key metrics including APP, SG Par 5, Good Drives and T2G. 44th place at The Valero on his first try last year.

JJ Spaun (6700) – The Secret Weapon at the Valspar finished a healthy 27th. I hear some chatter about him as people are starting to notice, but the price remains very good. I expect JJ to make the cut and potentially make some noise in this field. He’s not really a Top 10 candidate but another Top 20ish finish is certainly in play.

Secret Weapon – 50-18. See you in Discord.

Be sure to get in our Discord, watch our PGA Draftcast if you haven’t already. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.