We are off to Scotland for some links golf, as Rory McIlroy returns after his heart-breaking US Open defeat to defend the Scottish Open.
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Genesis Scottish Open!
Well, before jumping into our John Deere Classic preview, there is one thing we need to say first: WHAT. A. WEEK!
It was a fabulous week all round for our selections at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cam Davis was in our selections at a MASSIVE 70/1 and secured his 2nd PGA Tour victory at the same venue he won at in 2021. We also completed the quinella, with Min Woo Lee finishing runner-up within our selections. We cashed a full place on him at +360.
After three weeks of having hit a first-round leader top 5, we cashed in on Bhatia as first-round leader at 45/1. Sam Stevens finished in 10th, just one shot outside a place finish at 14/1. We cashed a Top 20 at +320 for him.
It is hard to find fault in a week like that. However, I might make an exception for Joel Dahmen. Sitting 7th entering the final round, he was the worst putter in the field by some margin on Sunday when he lost -4.70 SG: Putt. Had he putted at field average, he would have cashed a place at 32/1. Even losing 2 strokes putting (still a substantially dreadful putting day), he would have locked in a Top 20 at +650. Instead, we had to settle on a Top 40 at +200.
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Much is made of this event, from notably receiving a hard time for the low quality of the field and the ease of scoring at TPC Deere Run. Mostly, it is hard to dispute both points.
However, the tournament has still generated it’s own storylines. Steve Stricker famously won 3 consecutive tournaments here from 2009-2011. Jordan Spieth won in both 2013 and 2015. Spieth appears here for the first time since that 2015 win. Largely, that is a result of his current FedEx Cup ranking. He sits outside the Top 50, a key mark to automatically earn his way into all the signature events in 2025. He returns in dreadful form, with question marks about an enduring wrist injury. But, it is Jordan Spieth. And in usual Spiethian fashion, just about anything could happen for him.
It is also one of the last opportunities to qualify for The Open Championship. An alluring prize for those who are yet to make the field, and one that has ensured a somewhat improved field in recent years.
TPC Deere Run has ranked consistently as one of the lowest scoring venues on the PGA Tour in all iterations of the tournament. In the last 14 tournaments, no one has won at a score higher than -18 and typically something in the range of -20 to -25 is required for victory. The cutline has been -3 or -4 for the last 5 years.
In short, you need to make birdies and do so often to remain in contention here. It should be no surprise then that all of the last 7 winners here ranked 15 or better for the week in greens in regulation.
Given fairways are generous average of 36 yards, what may be more surprising in our John Deere Classic preview is that driving accuracy ranks as a high correlation to success. However, the course has ranked in the 9th or lower for rough penalty on the PGA Tour for all seasons in the last 8 years. This is also another factor of the scoring.
Fact is, when you need to make birdies in bunches, you are best placed to do so from the fairway. The course is not overly long, being a 7,289 par 71. This factors into our final point of our John Deere Classic course preview. That is short iron play is supremely important at TPC Deere Run.
A huge 35% of approach shots will occur between 100-150 yards. With a further two approach shots projected between 50-100 yards, that is 45% of approach shots with a wedge in hand. This is particularly intriguing, given the majority of recent golf courses have seen the opposite with a disproportionate number of long irons.
The recipe to success here is find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the subsequent putt.
First thing to note is that TPC Deere Run has one of the lowest correlations between prior success as a predictor of future performance. This might be somewhat confusing given this tournament has been held 23 times at this venue, so a wealth of data is available.
However, given the low scoring here and generally weaker fields, it should be factored into your decisions when you preview the John Deere Classic the prior performances should rated less highly than at other venues.
Finding success here can be linked to a number of other low scoring venues, where driving accuracy and wedge play are the key. Courses such as Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) come to mind here.
Furthermore, Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) could be an important course comp. Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker, both multiple time winners of the John Deere Classic, have also won there.
Weather could well play a factor to our John Deere Classic preview this week. When you have to score so low, getting the right side of the weather wave can be essential to finding a winner in betting or DFS markets.
Currently, Thursday morning looks to be the best conditions by far across the first two rounds. Winds will increase to low teens for gusts that afternoon, with a chance of heavy rain and possibly delayed play. On Friday, winds increase even further.
Friday presents the highest winds in the afternoon, with prevailing winds between 14-17 mph and gust between 20-25 mph. However, winds will still be high on Friday morning. It is a very short window before winds begin to increase throughout the day.
As such, I think the best strategy here is for those going out early Thursday. Hopefully, they can make the most of the pristine calm conditions. The goal is to then hold on throughout Friday. The vast majority of players will be completing at least 9 holes in very high winds. Further, those going out Thursday afternoon could slip into the windy conditions Friday morning if substantial delays are experienced.
Over the weekend, winds should settle. On Sunday, there is a small chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the region. Again, this could result in some delays in play should forecasts remain true.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 John Deere Classic. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
It’s the final Signature Event of the season! Joel finally ended the Spencer win streak at the US Open, with Rory McIlroy leading the charge on his team if not the golf course. Who will win this week?
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Travelers Championship!
Before we dive into our Travelers Championship preview, it is only right we talk about THAT tournament this week. The 124th US Open Championship lived up to the mark, producing one of the most memorable majors in recent memory. Not only is it rare to get a major championship that close right until the final hole, but also to have a leaderboard of that calibre meant we enjoyed a tournament for the ages.
Pinehurst No. 2 was a brilliant host. It lived up to all the promise, albeit the course was watered occasionally much to the jeers of the crowd. It truly is a fabulous golf course. Pleasingly, it has been marked as one of several venues which will host the US Open more regularly. The green complexes are some of the most fascinating that we get to enjoy of the major championship venues. There is something to be said for removing the rough around greens, relying instead on heavy contouring and fast, firm greens. It allows for more creativity and, subsequently, enjoyment for fans who get to see the world’s best golfers struggle to think of ways to get up and down.
Overall, it was another profitable week for our selections without the winner. Headline selection Xander recovered from a poor start to fight back across the week. Davis Thompson was tipped at a massive 300/1, and impressed once again. He was just one shot off place money of 60/1, triple the best available pre-tournament odds on a Bryson DeChambeau win.
True to form, the PGA Tour backs up a major championship with a signature event the following week. Although controversial, I can understand the reasoning. Not only does it ensure the field doesn’t get weakened after one of the flagship tournaments of the year, it has the additional benefit of striking while the iron is hot and fan interest in golf is high. The event will have no cut and was originally to have 72 players, although that has now reduced with Rory McIlroy to recover from that heart-breaking defeat.
TPC River Highlands plays host for our Travelers Championship preview. The course in has played host for decades, so we have a wealth of data. The first thing to note is that driving accuracy is at a premium here. That is often a prerequisite at courses where Pete Dye is involved.
Fairways are narrow averaging just 29 yards at key landing areas. The course has ranked in the 10 most penalizing for missed fairways in 7/9 most recent tournaments. The rough is thick Kentucky Bluegrass. Notably, this week the course superintendent has given rough length as 4+ inches. I’ve not seen the plus notation previously, so I am interested to see how long they let the grass grow out!
The course is short at just 6,835 yards for a par 70. The average length of par 4/5 is some of the shortest we will see of all regular PGA Tour stops. As such, you simply have to find the fairway to approach these greens and keep up with the scoring. We also see a reduction in projected long iron approaches. There is an increase in approach shots from 150-175 yards, but the vast majority of iron shots will be from less than 150 yards this week.
Guidance for our Travelers Championship preview can be found in other Pete Dye designs. Both Harbour Town (host of the RBC Heritage) and TPC Sawgrass (host of The Players Championship) shape as good indicators. They each require driving accuracy for different reasons. Harbour Town has overhanging trees along the fairways which can compromise approach angles. TPC Sawgrass is dotted with water throughout the property.
As such, it also makes sense to consider Sedgefield Country Club. The link between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield is one of the strongest correlations of all PGA Tour courses. It demands driving accuracy, but also has the added benefit of a requirement to keep up with low scoring.
Wai’alae Country Club is another guide, with tree lined fairways on a short course keeping accuracy front of mind along with very similar approach distance metrics. With the return of bentgrass greens, the recent RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament can be used for SG: Putting data.
As is often the case in signature events, there is little chance of a weather edge developing in our Travelers Championship preview. Given the reduced field, the tee-time window when golfers will be on the course is reduced. The prevents an edge developing given the lack of distinct disparity between the morning and evening. Further, with no cut, this has less benefit for DFS players.
Thursday looks to be very windy from the afternoon onwards. Those going off earliest should benefit, although the advantage is somewhat limited given the tee-time window is likely to only be two hours. On Friday, there is a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the evening. I suspect that they will try to get all groups out as early as possible on Friday morning.
There is a chance that lift, clean, and place could be in play. This means golfers who find the fairway can remove any mud off the golf ball and also give themselves a perfect lie. It would only further emphasise the importance on driving accuracy this week.
Saturday looks calm and the course should be soft if the forecast rain arrives. Scoring should be good. Should the weather preview hold true, Sunday sees some wind return, hopefully leading to an exciting conclusion for the Travelers Championship.
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Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
Well, here was me thinking I had recovered from my post travel illness, only to come down with COVID in the middle of a major week. It’s actually my first time having the bug. Considering I remained healthy through 3 instances of my young daughter having it, I had hoped I was somehow immune and would be able to sell my blood for science to fund my retirement. Such was the extent of infection from our friend’s 30th birthday event, the group chat has now been renamed “Zoe’s 30th Super-Spreader Event”. But, you think that’s going to keep me down? In a major week? I don’t think so! Ain’t no way I was missing putting together a US Open preview for all you good folks (albeit with strategic naps in between).
Scottie Scheffler continues to defy all logic and reason with another outrageous statistical performance. His nearly +13 SG: APP was the 7th best approach round since strokes gained data began in 2004. It is the nature of tournaments which he is completing these feats that is perhaps the most astonishing. He is -106 across the last 8 events, where field average is +5. And that is assuming you made the cut in all 8 tournaments.
That makes life very difficult for those who bet golf. It is pretty remarkable we remain at a very small loss for ROI on the year (-3.72%). That has mainly been buoyed by our continued performance on the DP World Tour and regular place money on the PGA Tour. Given returns of 32.71% in 2023 and 24.9% in 2024, we will keep fighting the good fight whilst we weather the Scheffler storm.
The 124th US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 for their 4th opportunity to host this historic tournament. Over that time, just four players have shot under-par. Outside of a Kaymer runaway victory in 2014 when -9, the other three (Fowler, Compton, and Payne) all shot just -1. Michael Campbell won at even par by two over Tiger Woods here in 2005. Another Kiwi, Danny Lee, also won the US Amateur at this venue. Kia kaha!
Amazingly, Pinehurst Resort & Country Club actually has 10 full 18-hole golf courses. Throw in a 9-hole short course and 18-hole putting course for good measure. A true golfing mecca and, for many, Pinehurst remains an iconic home of golf in the USA.
Perhaps the most important note is the restoration of Pinehurst No. 2 in 2011. As has been seen in many major championship venues, the mission of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw was to return the course back to Donald Ross’ original intentions. Most notably, that included the removal of an astonishing 35 acres of turf and restoration of the sandy waste areas lining these fairways.
It is often said that all US Open venues play somewhat similar. I think, any many ways, Pinehurst No. 2 breaks that mold.
Yes, it will be devilishly tough this week. The course is also very long at 7,543 yards for a par 70. The course will play very firm and fast. Greenskeepers have already been spotted watering the greens as early as Tuesday to try keep the course somewhat under control.
Fairways are wide at 35-45 yards on average. However, given the firmness they may play somewhat narrower than what is read on paper. Different to other US Open venues, which love to introduce extremely penal rough, the course has practically none. Instead, stray off the fairway and you run the lottery of finding yourself in sand (preferable) or wire grass (possibly unplayable).
There is often a right and wrong side of the fairway to play your approach shot, to access these difficult greens. Given the course length, it is inevitable you will see a large number of approach shots from over 200+ yards.
Much has been made of those dome shaped greens. You have likely seen them described as upside-down saucers or akin to turtle backs. This effectively reduces the size of the greens significantly. Despite the 6,500sq feet the greens read on paper, the landing area where you need to play to is much smaller. The lack of rough means low running shots are a possibility, much like at links golf courses.
Finally, note after the 2014 US Open the greens switched from bentgrass to bermudagrass. This will be the first US Open played on bermudagrass greens.
As such, although prior form in US Opens is desirable, that comes more from an ability to keep an even temperament in the face of a difficult course than any course correlations. Of other Major Championship venues I suspect that Chamber’s Bay, Shinnecock Hills, and Oak Hill play the most similar. East Lake Golf Club is another Donald Ross design which you can consider this week.
I see links form as a real positive this week. Performing in The Open Championship is respected. It could also see a few players from the DP World Tour emerge, with the Alfred Dunhill Links a decent general guide and the Scottish Open providing some assistance for PGA Tour based players. Bay Hill asks similar questions but in a different way.
The golf course reminds me a lot of a number of courses in the Melbourne Sandbelt region. An Australian hasn’t won this tournament since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, but perhaps this US Open preview as their best opportunity to snag one.
In general, the weather looks relatively inane all week. Winds look to remain in the single digits all week and gusts shouldn’t threaten over 20mph.
Most notably though, there has been a distinct lack in rain in North Carolina. The fact that they are already having to water the greens beginning the week is a sign that this course can play as fast as they wish. The masochistic in mean hopes they let it run rampant.
Fairways will narrow as a result, all though the course may seem to play a little shorter given the run after the carry from drives. Greens are set to run above 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Holding greens will be extremely difficult and inventive short-game will be important, as well as holing putts to try keep momentum. Needless to say, par will often be a great score and see you gain strokes on the field. Bring it on!
If you want to read my golf betting tips for the 124th US Open, you can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
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From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine. No one provides better value!
Access to our premium Discord channel is one of the best aspects of a premium membership. You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have.
Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 US Open. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
If you’ve not already, make sure to catch the US Open PGA Draftcast as we preview this week’s Major. We even had a special return from Sia Nejad to share his intel. Let the team know on Twitter whose line-up you think won!
We’re here for the US Open with everything you need from a betting and DFS perspective. The Bettor Golf crew will help you cash tickets from all different angles this weekend.
IT’S MAJOR WEEK!
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex) and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into the US Open!
What does Pinehurst No. 2 have in store for the best golfers in the world?
Can Scottie Scheffler be beaten?
We’re here for the US Open with everything you need from a betting and DFS perspective. The Bettor Golf crew will help you cash tickets from all different angles this weekend.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
