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UFC 285

JONES v GANE

After three years away from the cage, Jon Jones will be making his highly anticipated return to the octagon, this time in the Heavyweight division. He is one of the best fighters to ever step into the octagon and he will be headlining an excellent card. Today’s action will kick off at 5:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 14 fights that will end with a women’s flyweight title fight and the much-anticipated heavyweight title fight. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 285 Jones vs Gane.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Esteban Ribovics vs Loik Radzahbov

Starting off the article is the first fight of the card. Both fighters are making their UFC debut in this matchup and Radzahbov is coming in on short notice. The Argentine Esteban Ribovics is making his UFC debut after an impressive first round KO in the Contender Series, he currently sits at 11-0-0 with a 100% finish rate. Both Ribovics and Radzahbov have had questionable matchmaking throughout their careers but I would stop short of calling either of these fighters can crushers. Radzahbov has spent a good deal of time in the PFL prior to his debut tonight and although he started off hot, he left the organization with a record of 4-4-1 including a win against UFC vet Chris Wade. What I love about this matchup is that both fighters have shown that they are capable of fighting on the ground and on the mat so as a fan, I am truly looking forward to this one. However, I have seen truly impressive finishes out of Ribovics and to see him come in as a clear underdog in this fight was truly surprising. Even though, it could be a close one, the value is on Ribovics

MY UFC DFS PICK: Esteban Ribovics SECOND-ROUND KO.

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Ian Garry vs. Kenan Song

The takeover part 2 is back, the undefeated Ian Garry is coming into this matchup as a huge favourite and for good reason too. He has put up some impressive performances in the UFC and in Cage Warriors and is coming into a fight against a fighter who is 2-2 over his last four UFC bouts. Ian Garry is an excellent boxer and that is a mix of both his technique and power. Realistically, I think Garry gets settled into this fight before really picking up the pace and brining Song into deep waters. I do like Garry for the finish but I don’t know if Garry gets a first round KO as some people suspect.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ian Garry SECOND ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett

If we thought the odds on the Garry fight were extreme, this one is a joke. Despite only being 3-0-0, he is coming in as a -1600 favourite against a fighter with six UFC bouts under his belt. Now, Pickett has only amassed a record of 2-4-0 but the fact that Nickal is coming in as this big a favorite says all one needs to know about his grappling and wrestling abilities. Nickal is a freak of nature and is a NCCA Div 1 wrestling champion x 3 as well as a Blue Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (not that impressive but any BJJ knowledge coupled with his wrestling ability is a deadly combination). His opponent, dropped his last two fights in the octagon and is nowhere near equipped to deal with the wrestling of Nickal. I agree with the oddsmakers on this one, this fight won’t last long as Nickal will impose his wrestling advantage right away and cruise to a quick victory from there.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Bo Nickal FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible FIRST-ROUND KO).

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Jon Jones 5 ROUNDER

Valentina Shevchenko (Grasso is an excellent fighter and is one of Shevchenko’s toughest tests in the division outside of Erin Blanchfield. This fight is by no means a cakewalk for Shevchenko as the odds suggest but I would give Shevchenko an edge in the fight)

Shavkat Rakhmonov (16 fights, 16 wins, 16 finishes Rakhmonov is an unreal fighter with loads of talent both on the feet and on the mat. His opponent Geoff Neal is very one-dimensional and when this fight gets to the mat Rakhmonov will bring Neal into deep waters, I expect a one-sided fight in this matchup)

Mateusz Gamrot

Trevin Jones

Dricus Du Plessis

Amanda Ribas

Marc-Andre Barriault

Tabatha Ricci

Farid Bashrat

Cameron Saaiman

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY (Can be run as a Double, Trixie or Patent)

Shavkat Rakhmonov to Finish -175

Ian Garry to Finish -225

Bo Nickal to Finish -700

Farid Bashrat -450

Jon Jones -170

UFC Vegas 70

KRYLOV V SPANN

We are steady with more action in Vegas, this week UFC Vegas 70 is coming up! There are surprisingly a fair amount of Canadians on this card, including two competing against each other so we’ll see how that matchup goes down. Today’s action will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will end with a light heavyweigh fight with two fighters who are breaking into the top 5. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both not always active and sometimes rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 70 Krylov vs Spann.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Rafael Alves vs Nurullo Aliev

Just to get this out of the way, yes, Aliev has an undefeated record but this is a significant leap in competition and I think Aliev is in for a rude awakening. He performed very well on the Contender Series against a fighter who is now 12-6-0 and Aliev was a huge favourite at -625 but his opponent tonight, Rafael Alves is a different beast. Alves is coming off a fight against Drew Dober who currently sits 12th in the Lightweight division and prior to that, he secured a first round submission over Mark Diakese as a +200 underdog. I am a little surprised that the bookies aren’t respecting Alves’ experience in the octagon but I am definitely willing to take a shot at Alves in this position, especially with Alves’ strong grappling.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Rafael Alves SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa

Suarez was a star coming out of the Ultimate Fighter 23 and right away she lived up to the hype getting finishes against the likes of Alexa Grasso and Carla Esparza. De La Rosa is also an Ultimate Fighter alum but De La Rosa’s post TUF, UFC career has not been as impressive, her career has been very up and down, never getting more than a two-fight winning streak or a two-fight losing streak. The only draw back from Suarez is that she hasn’t fought since 2019 due to multiple injuries that have kept her out until now. But Suarez made it through the weight cut and is now poised to make her first octagon appearance in over four years. If we see half of what Suarez was capable of pre-injury, this fight won’t be close. I’m not sure if she’ll secure a finish but a win is in the cards for tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Tatiana Suarez SECOND ROUND KO (possible UNANMIOUS DECISION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Trevor Peek vs. Erick Gonzalez

This kid from Alabama hits like a freaking truck and he’s bringing his 7-0-0 record with a 100% finish rate to the UFC tonight against a fighter who has lost his only two UFC fights, one of which was to Jim Miller back in 2021. The bottom line here is that, Peek has 5 of his 7 knockouts in the first round two and he really impressed on the Contender Series despite securing the knockout in the second round. All this to say that this fight is going one way, Peek via KO.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Trevor Peek FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Nikita Krylov 5 ROUNDER

Andre Muniz (Brendan Allen is the most inconsistent fighter in the UFC, one day he’ll win as an underdog, and the next he’ll lose as a -300 favourite. Allen has good grappling but Muniz is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, if this one goes to the ground, Allen is done)

Agusto Sakai FADE (Mayes is another guy who has fumbled the bag when he was a big favourite, his last fight was a Split decision loss that was overturned when his opponent got caught using banned substances. Other than that he’s been ok, Sakai has been awful as of late but he has been facing some decent competition. This one is a tough one but I’m slightly leaning toward Sakai. I don’t think Mayes is good at all, and Sakai can turn up against frauds. Honestly, though, neither of these guys is that good. I’d fade this fight)

Gabriella Ferandes FADE

Mike Malott

Jordan Leavitt FADE

Charles Johnson (He did well to survive against Mokaev and I think he’ll have a solid outing tonight even though he’s coming in on short notice, not sure if he secures the finish though)

Joe Soleki

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, As such I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Mike Malott -220

Joe Soleki to Finish -163

Trevor Peek to Finish -138

UFC Vegas 69

ANDRADE V BLANCHFIELD

After last week’s wild scenes in Australia, we are back in Vegas for a fight night card. Today’s action will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will end with a women’s flyweight fight with two fighters who are breaking into the top 5. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 69 Andrade vs Blanchfield.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

William Knight vs Marcin Prachnio

Now, I’m not the biggest fan of William Knight but his losses came against talented opponents and he was the underdog in those fights. He also has good wins the UFC against at the time the undefeated Aleksa Camur and Alonzo Menifield. Prachnio on the other hand holds UFC wins against Khalil Roundtree and Ike Villanueva but more importantly, Prachnio holds a loss that is completely unacceptable, he lost to Sam Alvey by 1st round KO, he’s the first guy since 2016 to get KOd by Sam Alvey and that loss is very hard to bounce back from. Aside from that, Prachnio does not have a good skill set and has managed to get finished very early against most guys with talent. Prachnio throws more strikes than Knight but Knight also has a decent ground game which he can use to switch up the fight. I think that along with Knight’s power, his ground game will be too much for Prachnio to handle, barring any flash KOs Knight should have a clear advantage in this matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: William Knight SECOND-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Juancamilo Ronderos vs. Clayton Carpenter

Carpenter is making his UFC debut after an impressive performance on the Contender Series while Ronderos is coming off of a debut loss in the UFC against David Dvorak. Carpenter has had some very flashy finishes over his short career, with three first round finishes (2 KOs, 1 Sub) while Ronderos came into the UFC off of a Split Decision win as a very short notice replacement. From what I’ve been able to see, Ronderos has a decent ground game but Carpenter’s is definitely up there as well and I would say that no matter where the fight goes, Carpenter will have an advantage. This matchup is a stylistic dream debut for Carpenter who has good Muy Thai and BJJ fundamentals. Lock Carpenter in your lines tonight, he should be cruising in this matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Clayton Carpenter SECOND ROUND KO (possible UNANMIOUS DECISION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Evan Elder

Both of these fighters are coming in with the same 7-1-0 record and similarly to the last fight, Sadykhov is making his UFC debut after an impressive 3rd round KO in the Contender Series, whereas Elder broke into the UFC as a very short notice replacement. He did not fight well at all against Preston Parsons in his UFC debut, he was outstruck at a rate of nearly 3 to 1 and he got taken down four times and had to wiggle out of five submission attempts. Elder lost every round and one judge even had him lose a round 10-8. With that being said, what I saw from Elder that night was not UFC quality whereas I have seen real potential in Sadykhov who has great kickboxing technique backed by serious power and an excellent coaching staff at Longo and Weidman MMA. Realistically, I don’t see this fight lasting very long and I don’t see Elder having much of a future in the UFC, at least not on this first run in the organization.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Nazim Sadykhov FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Erin Blanchfield 5 ROUNDER (People who have been following my articles for a while know how highly I rate Blanchfield’s striking, it is at a much higher level than most of her competition, this is her chance to break into that top 5 spot and prove that she can compete with the top fighters in the Flyweight division)

Zac Pauga

Jamal Pogues (Parisien has been so bad in the UFC while Pogues has impressed in LFA and on the Contender Series. However, any amount of talent at this level should be able to put Parisien away)

Jim Miller (Jim is 39 years old and counting and tonight, he’ll be competing in his 41st UFC fight, the most fights in history, he is coming in as a dog against Alex Hernandez but Miller has a clear advantage on the ground and Hernandez has not been good in the UFC as of late as he has lost three of his last four bouts. Miller will have to avoid the early onslaught on the feet but he has a path to victory and is a good option for DFS even though his value is in his control time and submission attempts. Also of note is that Hernandez is coming into this matchup on short notice)

Mayra Bueno Silva

Ovince St. Preux FADE

Khusein Askhabov (Yes, he has a 23-0-0 record, with some good submission finishes but his record is extremely padded so play with caution)

AJ Fletcher

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, As such I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Nazim Sadykhov -188

Jamal Pogues -250

Clayton Carpenter -334

UFC 284

MAKACHEV V VOLKANOVSKI

We are taking you to the land down under for tonight’s UFC action. Despite being so far away, the fights will kick off at 6:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will end with two title fights for the lightweight and featherweight straps. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 284 Makachev vs Volkanovski.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Modestas Bukauskas vs Tyson Pedro

Let’s get this out of the way first. I don’t think either of these guys are very good, to be honest. Not only that but I wasn’t sure how Bukauskas was going to recover after those brutal side kicks from Roundtree and then getting cut by the UFC, but after two clean wins in Cage Warriors, he’s back against what I consider to be very light competition. Yes, Pedro is on a two-fight winning streak against Harry Hunsucker and Ike Villanueva. Neither of whom are in the UFC anymore with Hunsucker not earning a single UFC win and holding a 7-6-0 record, while Villanueva was 38 at the time of their fight. I haven’t really seen anything impressive from Pedro, he’s been a pure can crusher as far as I’m concerned. On top of that, Bukauskas has had some good performances in the UFC against Michailidis and Oleksiejczuk. I’m not saying that this one will be a walk in the Park for Bukauskas but Pedro as a -230 favourite doesn’t make sense to me even considering the fact that he’s from Austrailia.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Modestas Bukauskas SECOND-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown

Della Maddalena is back and he’s fighting at home in Perth, Australia! Unfortunately, that means that he’s predictably coming in as a heavy favourite here as he will attempt to break into the top 15 of the Welterweight rankings. Occupying that 15th spot is “Rudeboy” Randy Brown who has strung together some good wins following his loss against Vincente Luque. Unfortunately for Brown, I think tonight he is coming up against a fighter who can compete in the top 5 of the Welterweight division. Realistically, at 26 years old Maddalena is beginning to enter his prime and to his credit, he’s already strung together three first-round knockouts in the UFC and is on an impressive 13-fight winning streak. In this streak, we saw just how deadly Della Maddalena’s strikes truly are. His shots are not only powerful put their precise. He can pick his shots, and get them clean on target with lots of power. I’m definitely not taking anything away from Brown but he has simply not fought anyone at the level of Della Maddalena. I think that this fight will largely take place on the feet and that Della Maddalena will take charge of the fight early on. I’m expecting another first-round knockout and this time in front of the hometown fans.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jack Della Maddalena FIRST-ROUND KO.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Elves Brenner

To be honest, I don’t even think this fight will be competitive. We’re looking at a Khabib protege with UFC experience coming up against an unknown fighter out of Brazil who is making his UFC debut after submission wins against two fighters, one with a 3-1 record and the other with a 7-5 record. Clearly, Brenner has some competency when it comes to grappling but it will not hold a candle to being a master of sport in Combat Sambo AND Hand-to-Hand combat while also training with Khabib himself. A few other things of note are that Brenner is coming in on short notice as Tukhugov was supposed to fight Joel Alvarez on this card and as has happened before, Tukhugov has some issues making weight. He came in about a pound and a half over and usually this would signal to me that he had a bad cut but with the fight proceeding as a catch-weight, I think the extra pounds will actually be a bit of an unfair advantage to Tukhugov in what should be a very grapple heavy matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Zubaira Tukhugov FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION. (possible FIRST-ROUND KO)

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Islam Makachev 5 ROUNDER (I am not counting Volk out completely but a few factors led me to this decision. First, Makachev has a huge size advantage, just look at their faceoff to see what I’m talking about. Considering that Makachev has a ground game that will be very imposing and dominant. I think his size will play an increased role. Volkanovski himself has recognized that Makachev will most likely take him down so he’s mentally submitting to the fact that he’s fighting in his world. With Khabib in Islam’s corner, I don’t see a clear path to victory for Volk. Volk has to get a knockout, or keep his distance and do serious damage on the feet to win this one. Makachev is not invincible but I expect him to win this one handily.) [Of note, it looked like Makachev had a stressful weight cut but he made it so I am not putting to much into it]

Yair Rodriguez (Honestly, I don’t believe that this should’ve ever been a title matchup. Neither fighter had a clean win en route to this title shot. Yair beat Ortega by TKO when Ortega got a self-inflicted shoulder injury and Emmett won a controversial split decision over Calvin Kattar, which I honestly believed Kattar should’ve won. Realistically, Rodriguez is a better and more creative striker than Emmett. This fight may appear close at the start but I think as the fight goes on Rodriguez will begin to get a bit of an advantage.)

Justin Tafa

Jimmy Crute

Melsik Baghdasaryan

Kleydson Rodrigues

Loma Lookboonmee FADE

Jack Jenkins

Blake Bilder

Francisco Prado (Man. This Prado kid has something special, 11-0-0 with 100% finish rate. That is very impressive but making your UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey in his backyard is a big ask of the 20-year old Argentine. I see a lot of value in Prado as a DEEP GPP play for Daily Fantasy and maybe in a riskier parlay but I don’t know if he can beat someone like Mullarkey this early on in his career. This will be a trial by fire for Prado, we’ll see how it goes for him)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, As such I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Yair Rodriguez -175

Jack Jenkins Finish/KO -125

Blake Bilder +110

Zubaira Tukhugov Finish/Double Chance +120

UFC Vegas 68

LEWIS V SPIVAC

We are back state-side for today’s Fight Night card and we have the FOUR Road to the UFC Finals taking place tonight. Today’s action will kick off at 10:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a big heavyweight scrap with a lot of implications for the belt. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 10:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 68 Lewis vs Spivak.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Jeka Saragih vs Anshul Jubli

To get this out of the way early, yes Jubli is undefeated and Saragih is not but other than that minor fact, I honestly have no clue why the odds are this close. From what I’ve seen from Saragih, he’s been MAULING guys in the Road to the UFC. First he knocked out Singh with a spinning back fist then he got the first round KO to secure this shot. Jubli on the other hand had a cancelled fight and a very questionable split decision win. Despite getting a knockdown Jubli was outstruck and it came down to a very close third round. Even prior to the third round KO, Saragih was dominating the fight both on the feet and on the ground. Saragih simply has too many weapons in his arsenal and I haven’t seen enough from Jubli to believe that he’ll be able to compete in this matchup.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jeka Saragih SECOND-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Tatsuro Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar

So, to start off the night we’ll be going back to a fighter who caused a bit of a scare in his debut but completely redeemed himself in his second fight with a second round submission over CJ Vergara. Tonight, he’ll be up against a debuting fighter out of Mexico who has had a good career to date but did not fight any really top quality fighters until his Contender Series win last August. Even in that fight, he had a clear grappling advantage over his opponent. Unfortunately for Aguilar, that couldn’t be more different from his matchup tonight. He is completely outmatched in the grappling department and if the fight transitions to the ground, its Taira’s world. My main issue with Aguilar is I don’t think he’ll try to avoid the grappling and will instead roll the dice. That kind of strategy doesn’t pay off often in the UFC. Fighters need a gameplan and need to stick with their best stuff and what gives them a stylistic advantage. In short, I think this is a great matchup for Taira and Aguilar is too green to adapt to this next level of grappling.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Tatsuro Taira FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark

For our final breakdown, we’re going all the way to the co-main event of the night. Let’s cut straight to the chase here. Clark is a very one dimensional fighter. He will shoot for takedowns. That’s all he’s got and to Jung’s credit he’s been taken down once in his entire UFC career and in that fight he stuffed five of Ibragimov’s six takedown attempts. With an 88% TDEF rate, he should be able to neutralize the strongest part of Clark’s attack fairly effectively. Striking-wise Jung lands over a strike more per minute than Clark and defends 10% more of the shots thrown at him than Clark. Most importantly however, is that Jung packs serious power in his punches that I don’t think Clark will be able to handle after more than one round. It’s not always about the money shot and with Jung he has found success with accumulative powerful shots that are accurate, do damage and lead to a stoppage over time. I am confident that Jung will control the tempo of this fight and eventually secure the finish.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Da Un Jung SECOND-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Derrick Lewis 5 ROUNDER (Spivac is a great fighter and I think he is a much safer plan than Lewis but Lewis only needs one shot and I don’t think that Spivak can avoid the heavy hits once Lewis makes his in-fight adjustments on top of that, the DFS value is definitely on Lewis coming in as a +190 Underdog)

Marcin Tybura

Doo Ho Choi

Yusaku Kinoshita

Jeong Yeong Lee (I get why Lee is such a favorite in this matchup. He is an extremely high intensity fighter and will most likely blow Yi out of the water early but for DFS purposes Yi can have some value since I think his odds of winning the fight improve dramatically if he can survive Lee’s early onslaught. In short, I’m siding with Lee but I’m not against playing Yi, just if you roster Yi know the risks)

Rinya Nakamura

Ji Yeon Kim FADE

Jun Yong Park

Hyun Sung Park

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, as such I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Nakamura -450

Taira by Submission/Finish -200

Saragih by KO/Finish +162

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings! (Main Card)

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC 283

TEIXEIRA V HILL

We are in Brazil today for the first numbered card of 2023!! Weigh-ins went well, and we finally have some good news on the gambling front, so a few jurisdictions that had bans on UFC bets have now lifted them! We have a lot of Brazilian talents showcasing on this card and many heavy favourites but we also have some interesting plays that are worth digging into. Today’s action will kick off at 5:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be a whopping 15 fights that will end with two vacant title fights, with Volk fighting a weight class up, creating an interim title fight, and a shoulder injury to Jiri Prochazka, creating the vacant Light Heavyweight strap. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 283 Teixeira v Hill.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Luan Lacerda vs Cody Stamann
Ok, so I get that Lacerda is a +300 underdog but I actually think he has a solid shot here. Don’t get me wrong, Stamann has a massive experience advantage and is a far superior wrestler but Lacerda has very admirable BJJ skills and if the fight ends up going to the ground I don’t think its all smooth sailing for Stamann. On top of that Stamann has struggled quite a bit as of late. He’s lost 3 of his last 4 UFC fights with his only win coming against a 38 year old Eddie Wineland who retired after the loss. Lacerda is on the opposite side of the spectrum, making his debut on a 10 fight winning streak after putting on dominating performances in the regional scene in Brazil and in LFA, even beating the likes of UFC Bantamweight Raulian Paiva. People have been quick to count Lacerda out of his debut but I don’t think that’s particular called for. If Lacerda can avoid any heavy shots early and impose his BJJ game early in the fight, I think he can really shock some people.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Luan Lacerda SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny

Wow, the UFC really created quite the showcase for Durinho. After taking the fight that nobody wanted to take against Khamzat Chimaev, Burns put on one hell of a performance, he took the supposedly invincible wonderkid to all five rounds. He took Chimaev to the deep end and let him know how tough the fighters can get at the top. Burns has been a company man for a while, taking the fights that nobody wanted, doing his time and working his way up the ranks. This fight is his payoff. In front of tens of thousands of roaring hometown fans Burns will have one of the easiest cakewalks in his career against an opponent in Magny who is somehow still in the top 15 of the welterweight division (Ranked 11th). I think this win would either set up a title fight with the winner of Edwards v Usman or it would set up a title eliminator with Covington. Either way, a win tonight should give Burns a direct path to his next title shot. Where to even begin with Magny, his recent career in the UFC has been shaky at best and he has put together some questionable performances even in some where he got his hand raised. Burns will have a significant advantage in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and even in the striking department I think Durinho Burns will have a clear edge. The only area where Magny has a clear advantage is in reach with over an over 9 inch difference but realistically, I think this fight only ends one way, with a Burns submission.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Gilbert Burns FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Ihor Poteria vs. Shogun Rua

We could possibly see the final send off for one of the legends of the game today in Shogun Rua and unfortunately, I don’t think it will end quite as he might hope. Rua has had a stellar MMA career even spanning back to the PRIDE days in 2004 where he was beating Quinton Jackson with Soccer Kicks and defeating the likes of Big Nog, the Reem, Machida, Coleman and Liddell. Rua’s resume is unmatched and now making his 25 walk to the UFC octagon tonight, the former UFC Light heavyweight champion has had one hell of a career. However, at 41 years of age and having lost his last two fights (barely losing the last one to OSP), it might finally be time to pass the torch. On the other side of the cage we have Ihor Poteria, who had a strong performance in the Contender Series with a first round finish via brutal ground and pound but his UFC debut fell up short against an onslaught from Nicolae Negumereanu. Tonight, however, as much as I want one more vintage performance out of Rua in front of the hometown crowd, I don’t think it’s in the cards.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ihor Poteria FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Glover Teixeira 5 ROUNDER

Brandon Moreno

Jessica Andrade

Paul Craig

Gregory Rodriguez

Thiago Moises

Gabriel Bonfim

Jailton Almeida

Terrance McKinney

Nicholas Dalby FADE

Josiane Nunes

Daniel Marcos

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, as such I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Burns -500

Moises -380

Andrade -500

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC Vegas 67

IMAVOV V STRICKLAND

Wow! It’s been nearly a month since we’ve had any UFC action and today we are finally back in Vegas for UFC Vegas 67. Of note, due to an injury to Gastelum, Strickland is coming in on short notice to headline his second card in a row after a questionable loss in UFC Vegas 66 last year. Today’s action will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will end with two fighters getting a chance at a title shot in the middleweight division. Now, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 67 Imavov vs Strickland.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Claudio Ribero vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
Starting off the article, we have two heavy hitters in Ribero and Alhassan. They’re both in two very different times in their careers, with Ribero on a 6-fight winning streak and making his UFC debut after a very impressive first-round knockout on the Dana White Contender Series, while Alhassan has lost 4 of his last five fights, including three of which he came in as the favourite. The bookmakers have this one as a pick’em, but I think the mental factor will be huge in this fight. Even though it’s Ribero’s debut, I think he’s in a far better headspace than Alhassan, and skill-wise, Ribero is faster and packs a lot of power in his left hook. Ribero will have to keep an eye on any kicks, but I think that if he controls Alhassan’s range early, this fight will end before the first bell.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Claudio Ribero FIRST-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos

After an impressive performance in the last UFC card by Said Nurmagomedov, we are back for the first card of the year with another Nurmagomedov, the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. Barcelos will be Umar’s toughest challenge, there is definitely no doubt about that, but it’s also fair to say that this is not the same Barcelos that beat Said Nurmagomedov back in 2019, at 35 years of age and having lost two of his last three fights, Barcelos is definitely entering into a rough patch in his career. On the other side of the fight, Umar has picked up three UFC wins, two of which came by Rear Naked Choke, meaning he now has six RNC finishes in his career. Umar’s grappling skill set is definitely not as refined as his coach and cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov, but fundamentally, Umar is a strong grappler who will only improve with time. On top of that, Nurmagomedov has some nasty kicks that can also make the difference in a fight before his grappling even comes into play. One final note on Khabib is that he will be ringside for Umar, directing him on how to put the fight away so as we have seen in the past, those ringside instructions can prove vital in fights as well (i.e. Makachev’s Kimura finish against Dan Hooker). The bottom line is that even though Barcelos is a BJJ black belt, Umar’s grappling is at a higher level, and I also believe that age and longevity will play a factor here. With that being said, I expect Umar to put Barcelos away in the first or second round. (There is a risk that Nurmagomedov controls the fight for the full 15 in a similar fashion to what he did against Maness, and that might hurt his DFS value)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Umar Nurmagomedov FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Punahele Soriano vs. Roman Kopylov

For the last pick of the article, we have two knockout artists going at it in a 15-minute fight that will almost certainly not last for 15 minutes. Both fighters are 9-2-0 and coming off big knockout wins to break two-fight losing streaks. Although, that is where the similarities begin to drift apart as Puna does carry two more UFC wins under his belt, has way more first-round finishes and overall, has had a stronger opponent history. Statistically, Soriano holds a better Strikes landed per minute (SLpM) rate and a better Strikes absorbed per minute (SApM) rate while also holding a higher takedown rate per 15 than Kopylov in UFC Competition. Soriano also has a nasty left hook and I see him carrying more power in his shots than Kopylov while also being more accurate with his strikes. Overall, I think that with the power on either side of this fight, it will end quickly, and I have also seen enough out of Soriano to believe that he has a decided advantage coming into tonight’s fight. Along with his teammate Dan Ige, I think Xtreme Couture will be very well represented on tonight’s card!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Punahele Soriano FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Sean Strickland 5 ROUNDER

Dan Ige (Damon Jackson has good value as a dog on Daily Fantasy)

Ketlen Vieira (Decision)

Javid Bashrat (This guy is legit, he’s a very well rounded MMA fighter and I’m expecting a big performance from him today)

Mateusz Rebecki (By Knockout, Fiore has one of the most padded records I’ve ever seen, and he’s only 6-0-0. He only has two wins against guys with winning records, and one of them was 15-13-0, and his first two pro wins came against Jay Ellis… yes, the guy with the 16-106-0 record that also beat Gerald Meerschaert back in 2007)

Allan Nascimento

Daniel Argueta (Aguirre can make the fight competitive if it turns into a grappling heavy fight, but if it stays on the feet Argueta will have a clear advantage)

Jimmy Flick (Jimmy will need to bring this fight to the ground if he wants to win, he has no clear path to victory in standup)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will not be building any UFC Parlays, due to recent events involving suspicious betting patterns in a recent UFC fight. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Rebecki -800

Nurmagomedov -1000

Bashrat -340

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC Vegas 66

CANNONIER V STRICKLAND

We’re back in Vegas for the last card of the year, and damn, do we have a banger on our hands! Tsarukyan, Albazi and Kape are all on the same card. Today’s action will kick off at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will end with two fighters getting a chance at a title shot in the middleweight division. Now, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 66 Cannonier vs Strickland.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Bryan Battle vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
Don’t get me wrong, I think we have a close fight in this matchup but after looking at some of Fakhretdinov’s fights… and more specifically, his opponents, I am shocked that he’s coming into this one as the favourite against Battle. In Fakhretdinov’s last fight back in June, he was widely expected to get a massive KO to start his UFC career. Instead, he held Michailidis down for 13 minutes of a 15-minute fight, going 5 for 10 on takedowns and only 45 strikes. I have been thoroughly impressed by Battle from everything I’ve seen from him in the Octagon, where in just three fights, he already has a sub-1-minute finish, a submission and a three-rounder where he stopped 7 of 8 takedowns and landed at nearly a 2 to 1 clip over his opponent, Tresean Gore. Battle has proven himself to be a strong fighter with a bright future in the organization and Fakhretdinov has not. There’s a chance that Rinat takes control of this fight like he did the last one, but I’m in on Battle tonight, especially as an underdog.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Bryan Battle SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa

Wow… what an unfortunate matchup for your UFC debut. Costa has had a lot of hype around him in South America after embarking on a seven-fight win streak, including a split-decision win in the Contender Series back in July but the UFC are giving him a top-ten Flyweight in his debut. This is going to be a real trial by fire, Costa has never faced anyone near the skill level of Albazi who already has three UFC wins, including two first-round submission finishes. Albazi has looked scary good, and I can definitely see him fighting for the title one day once Figueredo and Moreno sort out their business early next year. (On a side note, one of Albazi’s first-round submission wins came against Figgy’s brother, who is worse but has a very similar style so that kind of competition would definitely not be out of the realm of possibility for Albazi if he puts on a statement performance here tonight) Realistically, I see very few scenarios where Costa survives past the first round on his short notice debut. I hope to see him again in the UFC against more even competition

MY UFC DFS PICK: Amir Albazi FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Cody Brundage

Oleksiejczuk’s UFC career has had some ups and downs, but against weaker competition, he always shows up and shows up big. He has already racked up four first-round knockouts in just 9 UFC fights and I think he is in a prime position to pick up another tonight against Brundage. Oleksiejczuk has extremely fast hands and a nasty left hook that he has used quite well in the past, but he is also very good at mixing up his attack, going high and low to always keep opponents on the back foot. Oleksiejczuk also holds an extremely high output rate with over two strikes landed per minute (SLpM) more than Brundage. I don’t see this fight lasting too long, and I would highly recommend having some shares of Oleksiejczuk in your DFS lineups tonight!

MY UFC DFS PICK: Michal Oleksiejczuk FIRST-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Sean Strickland 5 ROUNDER

Arman Tsarukyan

Julian Erosa

Bobb Green DEEP GPP

Cheyanne Vlismas

Jake Matthews

Said Nurmagomedov (I’m considering fading this matchup since I think this will be a grapple heavy contest and the chance for a finish is low so keep that in mind and play Nurmagomedov with caution on DFS)

Hayisaer Maheshate (Would’ve been more comfortable on Maheshate if he didn’t miss weight but 2.5 lbs, play with caution, I will most likely fade and it may be worth even having shares of Garcia given the significant effects of a bad weight cut)

Manel Kape

Sergey Morozov (Most likely fading this matchup as Morozov’s main path to victory is the same as it usually is, grappling)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will not be building any UFC Parlays, due to recent events involving suspicious betting patterns in a recent UFC fight. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Tsarukyan -200

Albazi -450

Kape -260

Oleksiejczuk -280

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

UFC 282

BLACHOWICZ V ANKALAEV

We’re back in Vegas and with only a couple of cards left before the UFC goes on a holiday break, tonight is UFC 282, the final numbered card of the year! There was a lot of hype around these fights, with some getting put together last minute and others including new talent like Paddy Pimblett and the youngest fighter ever on the UFC roster, 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. Today’s action will kick off at 6:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a bout for the vacant light heavyweight championship after Jiri Prochazka’s shoulder industry. Now, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 282 Blachowicz vs Ankalaev.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Ilia Topuria vs Bryce Mitchell
I’m honestly surprised that this fight is as close as it is. Yes, both fighters are undefeated, and someone is losing their zero tonight, but this fight reminds me so much of Ilia Topuria vs Ryan Hall. Where we have a very talented grappler fighting against one of the best all-around fighters in the UFC. Sure, he was in the fight for a good chunk of time, he made Topuria work to get out of positions, but it was only a matter of time until he got caught. Let’s not forget, yes, Bryce is a BJJ Black belt, and so is Topuria. This matchup pits Mitchelle up against someone who is unlike any opponent he has ever faced before, whereas Topuria has had experience with guys who have a very similar style to Mitchell. Ultimately, I think this fight will start off close, and as the fight goes on, Topuria will take over the fight with his superior strike game.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Ilia Topuria SECOND-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Raul Rosas Jr vs. Jay Perrin

Sure, the kid is 18, but he’s an absolute beast. He is a perfect 6-0-0, and he is being eased into the UFC with a matchup against a fighter in Jay Perrin, who is 0-2 in his UFC career and will most likely get cut after a loss to Rosas tonight. Rosas showed off some excellent tactical abilities in his Dana White Contender Series fight, where he even attempted a Suolev stretch against his opponent. That submission attempt came alongside three successful takedowns, 96 sig strikes and nearly 12 minutes of control time. This should be a great concern for Jay Perrin as he currently holds a 64% Takedown Defense rate and holds a negative strike differential (3.84 SLpM vs 4.07 SApM). I think by the end of this fight, a new star will be born, can’t wait to see the progression throughout his UFC career.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Raul Rosas Jr. SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz

Yep, we are including the main for tonight’s article. In some circumstances, I could even see Ankalaev beating Prochazka pre-shoulder injury but now, against Blachowicz, I think it should be considered a lock, Ankalaev is scary good. Three of his last four wins have come against current top 10s in the light heavyweight division, and he has looked even more dangerous throughout every one of those fights. Statistically, Ankalaev is a bit better than Blachowicz in that he lands more strikes and absorbs less while also holding a better striking accuracy and strike defence percentage. I think Ankalaev’s combos will ultimately prove to be too much for Blachowicz to handle, but the interesting thing about Ankalaev’s game is that he can also add kicks if he needs to, and he’s a master of sport in Combat Sambo, so if Blachowicz tries to bring the fight to the ground to avoid the onslaught, he’ll be met with a Dagestani handcuff and ground and pound. I don’t see an area of this fight where Blachowicz has a decided advantage. (other than having a longer reach and I don’t think that will be enough to win the fight)

MY UFC DFS PICK: Magomed Ankalaev THIRD-ROUND KO.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Paddy Pimblett

Santiago Ponzinibbio (His opponent is coming in on short notice)

Dricus Du Plessis (This fight is very close, but I think that Till has not been able to come back to the fighter he used to be, and he is coming into this fight losing four of his last five, with over a year layoff and against a fighter with crazy power. As much as I like Till as a fighter, I think this is a bad matchup for him. I won’t fully count him out, but I’m on Du Plessis)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Edmen Shabazyan

Chris Curtis (Even though the hype train is now gone, Buckley was stringing together some good performances until he dropped the first two rounds to Imavov in his last fight and couldn’t come back. In tonight’s fight, even though Curtis is coming in as an underdog, he has surprised us before with wins over the likes of Phil Hawes, Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira. I think that Curtis’ striking game is very underrated, and exposing someone like Buckley could see Curtis matched up against a top 10 opponent in his next fight)

Billy Quarantillo

Erik Silva

Cameron Saaiman (This one is harder to predict as both fighters are making their UFC debut with the same record 6-0-0. I will be leaning towards Saaiman in this one because he is more well-rounded and has had a better strength of schedule. If Koslow get’s the fight to the ground though, it could pose some problems for Saaiman as Koslow is an excellent grappler and submission artist)

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will not be building any UFC Parlays, due to recent events involving suspicious betting patterns in a recent UFC fight. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Ankalaev -240

Pimblett -245

Ponzinibbio -180

Rosas Jr. -245

Topuria -145

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!

(Alternatively you could add Dricus Du Plessis)

UFC on ESPN 42

THOMPSON V HOLLAND

After a two week-long layoff, we are back in the sunshine state for our first UFC card in December! After some shenanigans outside the octagon, we are back in Orlando for tonight’s card, and today’s action will kick off at 7:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 15 fights that will end with an interesting welterweight matchup between the nicest fighter on the roster (Stephen Thompson) and Big Mouth Kevin Holland! (who usually fights at Middleweight) Now, let’s get right into the action!

SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET

Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!

Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 42 Thompson vs Holland.

MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):

Bryan Barberena vs Rafael Dos Anjos

Hear me out, yes a prime RDA MAULS any version of Barberena. However, RDA is 38 years old and Barberena is on a three-fight winning streak including a second-round finish of Robbie Lawler. Considering Barberena’s last two opponents are over 40, it seems like RDA is on the younger side of Barberena’s competition, but there is no arguing that the former Lightweight Champs’ best years are behind him. Not to mention, RDA is only a few months removed from a brutal knockout at the hands of Rafael Fiziev where he absorbed 96 sig strikes and was 2 for 16 on takedowns. Although we have some greatness out of RDA in the later years of his career, it does look like he’s past the hill and he’s even admitted, that he’s done chasing Makachev. Unfortunately, we may see the last of the legend in the octagon tonight.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Bryan Barberena SECOND-ROUND KO

MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):

Jonathan Pearce vs. Darren Elkins

“The Damage” is one of the most accurate nicknames in the UFC because it is exactly how Elkins fights. He absorbs an absurd amount of damage and somehow finds himself back in the fight and locks in a submission. We saw this against Eduardo Garragori and … Darrick Minner, he dropped a round or two clearly and came back to win. Unfortunately for Elkins, I don’t think he’ll be able to do that against Jonathan Pearce. JSP is currently on a 4-fight winning streak coming into tonight’s fight which included two second-round knockouts and a second-round submission. He also currently holds an impressive strike differential (strikes landed per minute – strikes absorbed per minute) of over 2, while Elkins’ is just over 0.4. Now the most important stat that I think puts me squarely in the Pearce camp is the fact that Pearce holds a takedowns per 15 rate of 6.75, whereas, Elkins, who goes for desperate takedowns, only has a takedowns per 15 rate of 2.76, with only a 33% takedown success rate. Although I don’t think the fight will get to the later rounds, I think there’s a chance Pearce can win by submission, so keep that in mind as well.

MY UFC DFS PICK: Jonathan Pearce SECOND-ROUND KO (THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION).

MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):

Kyle Daukaus vs. Eryk Anders

This matchup is a clear mismatch when it comes to the ground game. Eryk Anders will simply be out of his element if he tries to grapple with Kyle Daukaus (Anders is a BJJ Brown Belt and Daukaus is a BJJ Black Belt. Daukaus has around 2.5 takedowns on average per 15 but he’ll only need one to get a clear advantage in this fight. Not only that but we’ve seen a bit of a regression in Anders recent fights as he’s gone 1-3-1 over his last five fights, with his only win coming against Darren Stewart who recently lost his first fight back in Cage Warriors since being released from the UFC. I think that Anders might have a slight advantage on the feet but the difference between the two in the grappling department is enough for me to clearly side with Daukaus in this fight. Keep an eye on Daukaus’ D’Arce Choke, his nickname is the D’Arce Knight after all…

MY UFC DFS PICK: Kyle Daukaus FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.

UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:

(Not in order)

Kevin Holland (5 ROUNDER)

Matheus Nicolau (Schnell is playable on DFS as an underdog play, but Nicolau should win this fight)

Sergei Pavlovich (This fight is very close and I think no matter what, it will have fireworks and I don’t think it goes past 15 minutes. I would understand taking either side of this fight)

Niko Price

Jack Hermansson

Emily Ducote FADE

Clay Guida (Although he is getting very old, Holtzman is only one year younger and has declined quite a bit since his strong start in the UFC back in 2015)

Mark Diakiese FADE

Natan Levy (Long-time readers would know how highly I think of Levy, Valdez makes way too many defensive errors and makes mistakes that you can’t make against Levy, this may go all 15 but I think Levy will win this one cleanly)

Francis Marshall (Francis is a clear favourite for a reason and I think he will win this one but it’s hard to completely count out Rojo, he hasn’t been able to produce in the UFC what he did in Combate but he is still a very talented and durable fighter, he may be worth a look in a DEEP GPP format against the UFC newcomer, Marshall)

Yasmine Jauregui

SUMMARY:

On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will not be building any UFC Parlays, due to recent events involving suspicious betting patterns in a recent UFC fight. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

PARLAY OF THE DAY

Jauregui -330

Levy -200

Pearce -500

MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!

Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!